十五”期间中国各地区农村资金配置效率比较

文章运用数据包络分析法,实证了我国“十五”期间农村资金配置效率及影响因素。结果发现：“十五”期间我国农村资金配置效率呈现平稳态势,但各地区存在明显差异;西部地区农村资金配置效率显著低于东部和中部地区,中西部地区农村资金配置的规模效益则明显低于东部地区。依此状况,中西部地区、尤其是西部地区农村发展将面临资金投入不足与配置效率低下的双重约束。对此,文章从增加农村资金供给和提高农村资金配置效率双重层面针对性地提出了政策建议,以期中西部地区新农村建设可资借鉴。     

我国农村资金配置的效率及其影响因素分析

文章运用DEA方法测算了1985～2008间我国29个省域农村资金配置的技术效率和规模效率,结果表明整个农村资金配置是非有效的。相对而言,东部农村资金配置的技术效率要明显高于中、西部,并且东部农村资金投入处于规模报酬递减状态,中、西部则处于规模报酬递增状态。此外,Tobit回归分析发现,对外开放、市场交换条件的改善有利于我国农村资金配置效率的提高,而城乡二元结构及金融中介发展水平还不能满足我国农村资金有效配置的需要。     

西部地区资金配置效率分析

本文从资金配置的三个主要环节--银行、资本市场和企业入手,对西部地区的资金配置效率进行实证分析,并得出结论,西部地区资金配置效率低下,进而诱致资金流出,进一步加剧资金短缺,成为制约西部经济发展的瓶颈.最后,根据以上分析对提高西部资金配置效率做出了简要构思.     

陕西农村金融资金配置效率县域差异分析

基于DEA方法和回归分析法,对2003—2012年陕西省87个县域层面农村金融资金配置的综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:县域农业贷款产值率与县域农村金融资金配置效率存在相关关系,即县域涉农贷款规模与县域农村金融资金配置效率相关。在县域资本流动总量受资本要素收益与财政金融政策双重影响条件下,资本流动的回波效应易于在自然资源欠丰裕的县域出现;而一省县域传统农业向资本较为密集的现代农业转型进程的快慢,一定程度上取决于本省农业资本流动由回波效应阶段进入扩散效应阶段之速度的快慢,这是一种需持续引入制度创新以引致制度变迁的演进过程。     

东西部地区科技创新成本效率的比较研究

运用数据包络分析方法,对东西部地区2001-2008年间科技创新进行投入资源配置效率和成本效率分析。结果显示：东部地区平均技术效率、配置效率、成本效率均高于西部地区的相应指标。东西部地区应采用调整资源投入结构、科技创新互动等措施,提高地区科技创新的成本效率,从而有效地控制科技创新成本、提高科技创新能力。     

我国区域农村金融非均衡发展状况分析

文章从农村金融发展水平、农村金融发展效率与农村金融机构空间分布等方面对我国区域农村金融发展的差异进行了分析.分析表明,我国农村金融相关率区域差异明显,西东中部地区呈递减分布;区域农村金融中介未能有效地发挥资金配置功能,其中中部地区资置效率最低,但西部地区有明显改善;农村金融组织按照人口数量而非经济发达程度设置地区分支机构,机构的撤并从区域对比来看并没有体现效率原则.     

农村非正规金融发展对地区农民收入差异影响分析

文章运用我国30个省市2004-2010年面板数据,分别建立东、中、西部地区农民收入关于农村非正规金融发展的截面固定影响变截距模型,研究分析2004年我国农村金融体系改革以来,农村非正规金融发展对农民收入的影响.结果表明:农村非正规金融规模的扩大、效率的提高均能促进农民增收;但由于存在区域差异,非正规金融对农民增收的促进程度不同,表现为东部地区作用最明显,而中部、西部地区促进作用略低.     

农村金融高质量发展水平测度、区域差异与空间收敛性分析

实现农村金融高质量发展是全面推进乡村振兴和加快农业农村现代化的重要支撑。文章基于2009—2020年我国30个省份的面板数据,运用DPSIR模型从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应五个方面构建农村金融高质量发展评价指标体系,通过Dagum基尼系数法揭示农村金融高质量发展水平的区域差异,并采用空间面板模型分析各地区收敛状态。研究结果表明：我国农村金融高质量发展水平呈波动状态,其中,东部地区发展水平最高,中部地区次之,西部地区发展水平最低但增速最快;农村金融高质量发展水平总体差异不断缩小,东部地区内部差异最大,东部与西部地区间差异最为明显,农村金融高质量发展水平地区差异主要来源于地区间差异;全国及东、中、西三大地区具有不同的α收敛、β收敛特征。     

区域金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系的动态分析

利用1991—2009年中国29个省份的面板数据,使用动态面板计量方法对金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长间的关系进行实证检验。结果表明:在控制住其他影响因素后,金融规模在中、西部地区对经济增长存在显著为正的影响,而在东部地区却表现出负方向的作用;金融结构和金融效率仅在东部地区呈现出显著为正的影响。进一步采用面板数据VAR模型探讨它们之间的因果关系,发现金融发展与经济增长之间的"需求跟随"模式发生在东部地区,"供给导向"模式在西部地区产生,而中部地区没有出现明显的金融发展模式。     

数据要素市场化配置效率的区域差异、动态演进与收敛性

文章以2006—2020年我国31个省份数据要素市场化配置基础数据为研究样本，将经典TOPSIS模型改进为PFHWD-TOPSIS模型对数据要素市场化配置效率进行测度，进一步运用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计方法、σ收敛与β收敛模型对区域差异及其来源、分布动态演进及收敛性进行分析。研究发现：在样本期内，各省份数据要素市场化配置效率呈波动上升趋势，总体差异、区域内差异和区域间差异均呈现波动下降趋势；东部地区数据要素市场化配置效率差异的σ收敛特征并不显著，西部地区存在明显的“追赶效应”；GDP、科技发展水平、城镇化率、产业结构、金融发展水平、开放水平对全国及三大地区数据要素市场化配置效率的影响呈现异质性特征。     

Cointegration and Long-Run Asset Allocation

We show that economic restrictions of cointegration between asset cash flows and aggregate consumption have important implications for return dynamics and optimal portfolio rules, particularly at long investment horizons. When cash flows and consumption share a common stochastic trend (i.e., are cointegrated), temporary deviations between their levels forecast long-horizon dividend growth rates and returns, and consequently, alter the term profile of risks and expected returns. We show that the optimal asset allocation based on the error-correction vector autoregression (EC-VAR) specification can be quite different relative to a traditional VAR that ignores the cointegrating relation. Unlike the EC-VAR, the commonly used VAR approach to model expected returns focuses on short-run forecasts and can considerably miss on long-horizon return dynamics, and hence, the optimal portfolio mix in the presence of cointegration. We develop and implement methods to account for parameter uncertainty in the EC-VAR setup and highlight the importance of the error-correction channel for optimal portfolio decisions at various investment horizons.     

Smooth Nonparametric Allocation of Classification

A nonparametric discriminant analysis procedure that is robust to deviations from the usual assumptions is proposed. The procedure uses the projection pursuit methodology where the projection index is the two-group transvariation probability. We use allocation based on the centrality of the new point measured using a smooth version of point-group transvariation. It is shown that the new procedure provides lower misclassification error rates than competing methods for data from skewed heavy-tailed and skewed distributions as well as unequal training data sizes.     

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation

We discuss the development of dynamic factor models for multivariate financial time series, and the incorporation of stochastic volatility components for latent factor processes. Bayesian inference and computation is developed and explored in a study of the dynamic factor structure of daily spot exchange rates for a selection of international currencies. The models are direct generalizations of univariate stochastic volatility models and represent specific varieties of models recently discussed in the growing multivariate stochastic volatility literature. We discuss model fitting based on retrospective data and sequential analysis for forward filtering and short-term forecasting. Analyses are compared with results from the much simpler method of dynamic variance-matrix discounting that, for over a decade, has been a standard approach in applied financial econometrics. We study these models in analysis, forecasting, and sequential portfolio allocation for a selected set of international exchange-rate-return time series. Our goals are to understand a range of modeling questions arising in using these factor models and to explore empirical performance in portfolio construction relative to discount approaches. We report on our experiences and conclude with comments about the practical utility of structured factor models and on future potential model extensions.     

Allocation Constraints in Stratification

When a finite population is to be stratified, one of constraints in stratification is that sample sizes from strata may not be greater than the corresponding stratum sizes and may not be smaller than two. There are several ways of treating this allocation constraint, each providing an alternative approach to stratification. In this article, it is shown that a choice of the approach has a bearing on stratification efficiency. Unfortunately, no particular approach out of the four compared is shown to be the most efficient for each population studied. In addition, the approaches are applied to stratify a real population.     

生产资源配置的技术倾向及其测定

生产资源配置的技术倾向及其测定高春津ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｍａｉｎｌｙｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｔｈｅｐｒｏｐｅｎｓｉｔｙａｎｄｔｈｅｆｏｒｍｏｆｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅａｌｏｃａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｈｏｗｔｏｍｅａｓｕｒｅｔｈｅｍ．Ｔｈｅａｕ...     

Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation

We evaluate alternative models of variances and correlations with an economic loss function. We construct portfolios to minimize predicted variance subject to a required return. It is shown that the realized volatility is smallest for the correctly specified covariance matrix for any vector of expected returns. A test of relative performance of two covariance matrices is based on work of Diebold and Mariano. The method is applied to stocks and bonds and then to highly correlated assets. On average, dynamically correct correlations are worth around 60 basis points in annualized terms, but on some days they may be worth hundreds.     

价格波动与资源配置效率研究

 文章从理论和经验两方面研究了价格波动对资源配置效率的影响。理论模型显示：由于调整成本的存在,面对较低水平价格波动的企业可能并不会立刻调整要素投入比例和生产计划,这一“保守策略”意味着价格波动可能带来企业配置效率损失的增加。但是随着价格波动幅度进一步增加,越来越多的企业将会主动的对生产计划进行调整,以便抵消较大幅度波动的不利影响。“保守策略”向“调整策略”的转变意味着价格波动引起的资源的配置效率损失可能存在门阀效应。利用1978-2007年省级面板数据和基于极大似然估计的随机前沿方法,文章实证研究证实了价格波动对资源配置效率损失的非线性影响,认为传统的研究可能低估价格波动对经济的负面影响。     

Rank Preserved Aggregation Rules and Application to Reliability Allocation

The reliability allocation for computerized numerical control lathes can be seen as a MCDM problem. In a previous article (Hou, 2011 Hou , F. ( 2011 ). A Semiring-based study of judgment matrices: properties and models . Inform. Sciences 181 : 2166 – 2176 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the fixed point equations corresponding to the priority vectors of consistent judgment matrices were given under semiring operations. The existence and uniqueness of the min-normalized fixed point were also proved. This article shows the application of the decision fixed point. First, fixed point-based aggregation rule with rank preservation is proposed for AHP. Then, counterpart results under a semiring isomorphism are presented for the FPR-AHP, where the preference information is presented by additive reciprocal judgment matrices (fuzzy preference relations). Third, the proposed aggregation rules are extended to the data incorporation of MCDM problems. Finally, application to the reliability allocation for computerized numerical control lathes is investigated.     

Stochastic Comparisons and Optimal Allocation for Policy Limits and Deductibles

In this article, we discuss about the stochastic comparisons and optimal allocation for policy limits and deductibles. We order the total retained losses of a policyholder in the usual stochastic order under more general conditions of X _i (i = 1,…, n), based on which the optimal allocation of policy limits and deductibles are achieved in some special cases. Several results in Cheung (2007 Cheung , K. C. ( 2007 ). Optimal allocation of policy limits and deductibles . Insur. Math. Econ. 41 : 291 – 382 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Lu and Meng (2011 Lu , Z. , Meng , L. ( 2011 ). Stochastic comparisons for allocations of policy limits and deductibles with applications . Insur. Math. Econ. 48 : 338 – 343 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) are generalized here.     

On Sample Allocation in Multivariate Surveys

The problem of a sample allocation between strata in the case of multiparameter surveys is considered in this article. There are several multivariate sample allocation methods and, moreover, several criteria to deal with in such a case. A maximum coefficient of variation of estimators of the population mean of characters under study is taken as the optimality criterion. This article contains a study on a group of the methods that are easy to implement and do not need complex numerical computation; however, they all are approximate. Five such methods are presented and compared using a simulation study. Finally, it is shown which methods should be considered when designing a survey in which the multivariate sample allocation is to be involved.