关于地方实施新国民经济核算体系的思考

建立健全新国民经济核算体系，是适应我国经济体制转变的需要。在1992年，国务院就决定分两步在我国实施新国民经济核算体系。经过几年的努力，新国民经济核算体系的建立取得了较大的进展，但其中也存在一些不容忽视的问题。本文就我国实施新国民经济核算体系中存在的主要问题和地方实施新核算体系的基本思路谈点儿粗浅看法。一、目前实施新国民经济核算体系中存在的主要问题1、认识上存在偏差。目前对我国建立新国民经济核算体系的认识存在着一些误区，主要是：认为建立新国民经济核算体系，就是要编制五张基本核算表和全部帐户体系，只要…     

强化统计设计管理 建立现代统计制度

我国统计设计管理工作的回顾改革开放以来,建立与国际标准接轨并符合我国国情的新国民经济核算体系的框架是统计设计管理工作所取得的令人瞩目的成就之一。回顾以往,这项工作从1984年起至今已愈16年了。1984年以前,我国采用从苏联引进的MPS核算体系。随着改革开放政策的实施,我国的经济体制发生了巨大的变化,MPS核算体系已经不能适应形势发展的要求。新国民经济核算体系经8年的研制于1992年问世,在全国执行。这个核算体系的最大特点是既可以与MPS体系比较,又可以经转换后与SNA体系比较。现在来看,这个共存型体系似乎是多余的,…     

对如何搞好国民经济核算工作的几点想法

在国务院的领导和统一部署下,经过多年的努力,初步建立起适应社会主义市场经济体制条件下的中国新国民经济核算体系,这标志着我国国民经济核算工作迈入了一个新的发展时期。但这只是一个新的开端,适应改革开放的需要,进一步改革完善我国的核算体系,充分发挥国民经济核算工作的作用,任重而道远。一、核算工作的地位和作用1、国民经济核算在整个统计改革中处于统领地位。一般意义上讲,统计指标体系决定了统计调查方法,统计的调查方法又决定了统计工作管理体制。因此,统计指标体系的改革是整个统计工作改革的基础。国民经济核算体系…     

国民经济核算体系研讨会综述

全国国民经济核算协调委员会总体系课题组和中国统计学会统计核算研究组联合召开的国民经济核算体系研讨会于1990年4月18日至23日在南京举行。这次研讨会是在近几年来各有关方面对我国国民经济核算体系进行较长时间的研究,并形成了《我国国民经济核算体系方案》(1989年修订稿)(以下简称《方案》)的基础进行的。与会代表一致认为,经过这几年实际工作部门和学术界的共同努力,我国新国民经济核算体系的研制工作取得了重大进展。在理论上由过去的百家争鸣逐步达到现今的基本趋同,在新核算体系的指导思想、理论基础以及核算范围等重大问题上也有了共同的看法,从而进一步确立了我国新国民经济核算体系的基本模式及其总体方案的设计。目前,《方案》经过反复论证和修订,已基本趋于成熟。     

我国国民经济核算研究的新起点

在经过几年的充分论证和广泛征求各方面的意见和建议之后,《中国国民经济核算体系(2002)》正式发布实施了。这是我国国民经济核算领域、乃至整个统计学和经济学界的一件大事。因为新体系将成为我国今后国民经济核算工作新的规范性文件,新体系的全面实施必将把我国的国民经济核算工作提升到一个新的水平,使我国的国民经济核算数据更全面、更系统、更准确地反映国民经济运行情况,能够为经济学界研究我国经济运行中存在的各种问题提供更加丰富的信息,更好地满足宏观经济管理和决策的需要。限于篇幅,在这里笔者仅仅谈几点对《中国国民经济核算体系(2002)》(以下简称“新体系”)的看法。     

新中国国民经济核算体系演化的理论动因:历史回顾与展望

探讨和总结新中国国民经济核算体系演化和经济理论取向之间的联系,对于推动中国国民经济核算体系的深化改革和发展具有重要的现实意义。总结发现,中国国民经济核算体系经历了计划经济时MPS体系的建立和发展阶段,计划经济到市场经济转型时期的MPS体系和SNA体系并存的阶段,市场经济深化发展时期SNA体系下的发展阶段;概括了中国经济理论界在三个不同时期理论研究,特别是价值理论研究的进展。从中可以看出,随着SNA体系在中国的建立,中国理论界在价值理论的研究方面取得了重要进展,是中国国民经济核算演化的理论动因,但面临SNA体系在中国的深化发展,中国理论界在自然资源的定价和新经济贡献的测度上,还有诸多理论命题需要突破。     

近年来我国国民经济核算的改革与实践

党的十八届三中全会以来,国家统计局在国民经济核算方面进行了一系列改革,制定新的国民经济核算标准,完善国内生产总值(GDP)核算方法,细化账户内容,多项核算工作取得重要进展。本文全面梳理了近年来国家统计局在国民经济核算方面开展的各项工作,系统总结国民经济核算取得的新进展,介绍《中国国民经济核算体系(2016)》的变化以及组织实施情况,总结地区生产总值统一核算、编制全国和地方资产负债表、探索编制自然资源资产负债表、GDP核算、投入产出核算、资金流量核算、派生产业核算等方面开展的改革工作,并结合继续完善我国国民经济核算工作要求,提出政策建议。本文对于有关学者进一步开展国民经济核算研究,以及广大用户正确使用和解读国民经济核算数据具有重要的参考意义。     

我国国民经济核算的回顾与展望

从建国初期到改革开放以前 ,我国国民经济核算工作经历了建立和曲折的发展过程。改革开放以后 ,特别是 80年代中期以来 ,我国国民经济核算工作获得了迅速发展。但是 ,目前仍存在许多不完善的方面 ,与加入ＷＴＯ之后的社会主义市场经济体制下的宏观经济管理、社会公众和对外交流工作的需要相比 ,与国际标准相比 ,还存在很大差距 ,需要进一步改革和发展。　　一、我国国民经济核算的回顾具体说来 ,中国国民经济核算历史经历了三个阶段 :ＭＰＳ体系的建立和发展阶段 ,ＭＰＳ体系与ＳＮＡ体系并存阶段 ,在ＳＮＡ体系下的发展阶段。(一 )三个发展…     

国民经济核算体系中的几个基本概念

改革我国原有的国民经济核算制度,建立健全新的国民经济核算体系,是深化统计改革的一个关键。《中国国民经济核算体系(试行方案)》已在全国实施,要保证这一工作的顺利开展,对新核算体系中重要概念、主要内容的理解应该规范和统一,这对广大从事该项工作的统计人员是十分重要的。为此,我们从本期起特开辟“新国民经济核算体系讨论”专栏。欢迎大家投稿。     

SNA从SNA发展过程得到的认识

如何认识我国的国民经济核算体系,如何加强这方面的建设,应该说是一件意义十分重大而深远的事情.通过对SNA发展历史的简要回顾认识,从中发现一些可资借鉴的东西,我们认为,这会对我国的新国民经济核算体系的发展和完善起着有益的帮助.首先我们回顾一下SNA的形成和发展过程.SNA是国民帐户体系(A System ofNational Accounts)的简称.作为西方市场经济国家国民经济核算体系,它是由国民收入统计发展而来.最早的国民收入统计,可以迫溯到十七世纪,当时英国经济学家W·配     

层次分析法中判断矩阵的改进

通过引入计算数学迭代的思想,对层次分析法中的判断矩阵进行调整改进。使某些不能通过一致性检验的判断矩阵,重新通过检验,并用VisualBa8ic语言来实现这一过程。通过计算机的使用,使得这一方法变得方便、实用。最后,给出一简单实例来证明此方法的可行性。     

Markov Sampling

A discrete parameter stochastic process is observed at epochs of visits to a specified state in an independent two-state Markov chain. It is established that the family of finite dimensional distributions of the process derived in this way, referred to as Markov sampling, uniquely determines the stochastic structure of the original process. Using this identifiability, it is shown that if the derived process is Markov, then the original process is also Markov and if the derived process is strictly stationary then so is the original.     

Goodness-of-fit tests based on the distance between the Dirichlet process and its base measure

The Dirichlet process is a fundamental tool in studying Bayesian nonparametric inference. The Dirichlet process has several sum representations, where each one of these representations highlights some aspects of this important process. In this paper, we use the sum representations of the Dirichlet process to derive explicit expressions that are used to calculate Kolmogorov, Lévy, and Cramér–von Mises distances between the Dirichlet process and its base measure. The derived expressions of the distance are used to select a proper value for the concentration parameter of the Dirichlet process. These tools are also used in a goodness-of-fit test. Illustrative examples and simulation results are included.     

Estimation of the Change Point in Monitoring the Process Mean and Variance

Knowing the time of a process change could lead to quicker identification of the special cause and less process down time, as well as help to reduce the probability of incorrectly identifying the special cause. In this article, we propose the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the process change point when a control chart with the fixed sampling rate (FSR) scheme or the variable sampling rate (VSR) scheme is used in monitoring a process to detect changes in the process mean and/or variance of a normal quality variable. We investigate the performance of this estimator when it is used in various types of control charts.     

Limit theorems for a general weighted process under random censoring

Necessary and sufficient conditions for weak and strong convergence are derived for the weighted version of a general process under random censoring. To be more explicit, this means that for this process complete analogues are obtained of the Chibisov-O'Reilly theorem, the Lai-Wellner Glivenko-Cantelli theorem, and the James law of the iterated logarithm for the empirical process. The process contains as special cases the so-called basic martingale, the empirical cumulative hazard process, and the product-limit process. As a tool we derive a Kiefer-process-type approximation of our process, which may be of independent interest.     

A note on a transient queuing system of a linear birth–immigration process in presence of twin births

In this article, we consider a simple transient queuing system, i.e., a linear birth process with immigration in the presence of twin births. We find the differential-difference equation and also the probability-generating function (p.g.f.) for this process. Again, we generalize it into a linear birth process with immigration in the presence of both single birth or twin births and again for the case of multiple births. From the p.g.f. of linear birth process with immigration in the presence of twin births, we find some particular transient queuing processes like linear birth process with twin births and simple immigration process. Direct derivations of mean and variance of these processes are also discussed without using the generating functions.     

An Immigration-Death Process with a Time-Dependent Delay

In this article, a non homogeneous immigration-death process with delay in the death rate parameter is considered. A process with a time-dependent delay is developed and shown to result in a non homogeneous Poisson process.     

Non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process

Abstract

In this paper we suppose that the intensity parameter of the Pólya-Aeppli process is a function of time t and call the resulting process a non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process (NHPAP). The NHPAP can be represented as a compound non-homogeneous Poisson process with geometric compounding distribution as well as a pure birth process. For this process we give two definitions and show their equivalence. Also, we derive some interesting properties of NHPAP and use simulation the illustrate the process for particular intensity functions. In addition, we introduce the standard risk model based on NHPAP, analyze the ruin probability for this model and include an example of the process under exponentially distributed claims.     

Estimating total and specific process capability indices in three-stage processes with measurement errors

In multistage processes, two kinds of process capability indices (specific and total process capability indices) are defined in each stage. The total process capability index calculates the capability of each stage when it is affected by the previous stages and the specific process capability index calculates the capability of the stage when the effects of the previous stages are eliminated. Process capability indices in multistage processes are proposed under the assumption of no measurement errors. However, sometimes this assumption may be violated and leads to misleading interpretations. In this paper, the effects of measurement errors on the specific and total process capability indices in the second and third stages of the three-stage processes are statistically analysed. In addition, the effects of the measurement errors on the bias and the mean square error value of the total and specific process capability indices in the second and third stages are studied. Finally, the effects of the measurement errors on the specific and total process capability indices are shown through a numerical example.     

Improved Shewhart-type Runs-rules Nonparametric Sign Charts

Runs-rules are typically incorporated in control charts to increase their sensitivity to detect small process shifts. However, a drawback of this approach is that runs-rules charts are unable to detect large shifts quickly. In this article improved runs-rules are introduced to the nonparametric sign chart to address this limitation. Improved runs-rules are incorporated to maintain sensitivity to small process shifts, while having the added ability to detect large shifts in the process more efficiently. Performance comparisons between sign charts with runs-rules and sign charts with improved runs-rules illustrate that the improved runs-rules are superior in performance for large shifts in the process, while maintaining the same sensitivity in the detection of small shifts.