教育对经济增长贡献算法的改进

本文就教育对经济增长贡献已有的算法及其缺陷进行评述,考虑到AK模型能够比较好地刻画我国的经济增长以及教育本身的延时性,本文提出两条改进意见:发达地区可采用舒尔茨的教育资本存量法,非发达地区和全国范围宜在此基础上选用延期回归方程法,本文还结合深圳1978~1994和中国1978~1996年的样本对此作出解释和验证.     

人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性--兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长

本文援引国际经验,把人口转变引致的不同人口年龄特征阶段看作是经济增长的一个额外源泉,或人口红利;论证了通过高储蓄率、充足的劳动力供给和低抚养比,中国人口转变对改革以来高速经济增长的贡献;揭示了人口红利即将消失的趋势,由此提出最大化促进就业是维持人口对经济增长正面效应的关键.     

Pathways of Early Fatherhood,Marriage, and Employment: A Latent Class Growth Analysis

In the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), young fathers include heterogeneous subgroups with varying early life pathways in terms of fatherhood timing, the timing of first marriage, and holding full-time employment. Using latent class growth analysis with 10 observations between ages 18 and 37, we derived five latent classes with median ages of first fatherhood below the cohort median (26.4), constituting distinct early fatherhood pathways representing 32.4% of NLSY men: (A) Young Married Fathers, (B) Teen Married Fathers, (C) Young Underemployed Married Fathers, (D) Young Underemployed Single Fathers, and (E) Young Later-Marrying Fathers. A sixth latent class of men who become fathers around the cohort median, following full-time employment and marriage (On-Time On-Sequence Fathers), is the comparison group. With sociodemographic background controlled, all early fatherhood pathways show disadvantage in at least some later-life circumstances (earnings, educational attainment, marital status, and incarceration). The extent of disadvantage is greater when early fatherhood occurs at relatively younger ages (before age 20), occurs outside marriage, or occurs outside full-time employment. The relative disadvantage associated with early fatherhood, unlike early motherhood, increases over the life course.     

Stress Related Growth Among Diabetic Outpatients: Role of Social Support,Self-Esteem,and Cognitive Processing

Social Indicators Research - Diabetic patients feel stress regarding the nature of the illness. This study aims to explore factors related to stress related growth (SRG) among diabetic outpatients....     

Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food,Agriculture, and Development

Recent long‐term demographic projections suggest a fast deceleration of global population growth and the eventual peaking of world population later in this century at about 9.2 billion, roughly 50 percent above the present level. Some low‐income and food‐insecure countries, however, have projected populations in 2050 that are multiples of present ones. In some of these countries agriculture must play a leading role in their development efforts because they have high economic dependence on that sector. For those among them that have scarce agricultural resources, a prima facie case can be made that the high population growth rates projected may not be compatible with the development potential offered by such resources. Their demographic projections may need to be revisited, taking into account such inadequate potential. The global demographic slowdown notwithstanding, the “population explosion”‐related issues pertaining to food and agriculture will not become irrelevant but will be become increasingly localized.     

Target Population Growth:Zero

China must make greater efforts to achieve zerogrowth in the 21~st century, a top family planningofficial said on December 13, 1999 in Beijing."We are optimistic about keeping the Chinesepopulation under 1.3 billion before the 21~st, century,"said Zhang Weiqing, minister of the State FamilyPlanning Commission.Official data indicate that 1.25 billion people live inChina today. But Zhang estimated that millions ofpeople have been concealed from census counts.Zhang made his comments at the F…     

The arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation

This is a tutorial on the relations between population data and the rates of growth that are calculated from the data. For the calculation of rates of growth, discrete and continuous compounding will be compared so that the reader can see the reasons for using the mathematics of continuous compounding, which is the mathematics of exponential growth. Some properties of exponential growth are developed. Semi-logarithmic graphs will be discussed as a device for representing the size of growing populations and for analyzing the nature of the growth. Illustrative examples will be worked out in order to emphasize applications and utility.     

Population Growth,Development and the Environment

When Population Studies was founded in 1946 a main preoccupation of demographers and of the public was the prospective decline of the British population, and the falling off of its quality because on the average a poor family had more children than a better-off one. Over the course of the 50 years interests have shifted to the aging of populations as births decline and mortality improves; immigration, immigrants being welcomed for the decades after the war, and subsequently facing hostile political pressures; environmental degradation and the spread of new diseases. The fall in the birth rate, required both for development and for protection of the environment, is spreading from the original industrialized countries of Europe and America to Asia, somewhat more slowly to Latin America, slowest of all to Africa.     

人口变动对长期经济发展的作用——基于台湾地区的经验数据

通过运用台湾地区1952～1999年的经验数据和向量误差修正计量模型检验了人口、技术进步与经济发展三者间的关系,研究发现总人口、技术进步和经济发展之间存在长期的稳定关系,经济发展是总人口和技术进步的函数;同时总人口对经济发展具有直接的负效果和间接的正效果,但是总体来看人口对于经济发展的作用是积极的。因此从长期经济发展的角度看,我国庞大的人口基数将是实现经济持续增长的有利条件。     

The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future: its origins,operations, and aftermath

The origins, organization, and operation of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future and the response to its report are described. The origins of the Commission are traced to a concern with the consequences of U.S. population growth on the part of such key individuals as John D. Rockefeller 3rd and Paul Ehrlich. Because the Commission was a statutory creation of Congress, its membership included 4 Congressmen in addition to 20 distinguished citizens representing a spectrum of groups and views. The evaluation of the consequences of growth, as opposed to the means of reducing fertility, became the major concern of the research effort. Several issues led to differences within the Commission: 1) A narrow versus a broad definition of the scope of the report; 2) differing perceptions of the population problem as manifested by the ecological view, the "unwanted fertility" school, and the social justice view. The social science work contracted by the Commission had a significant impact on the final report's substance: 1) the demographic work on population projections was crucial to the analysis of the consequences of growth; 2) evaluating the demographic capability of national "growth center strategy" had an influence; and 3) the need to eliminate unwanted fertility was confirmed as a necessary priority. The basic thrust of the Commission's report was to recomment slowing growth in order to maximize the quality of life.     

经济增长、结构转变与人口城市化:基于甘肃的经验研究

经济增长伴随的产业结构和就业结构转变以及由此导致的经济要素空间聚集是人口城市化的根本动力,如果非常态的工业化路径致使这一传导机制受阻,经济增长和城市化就可能陷入低水平均衡状态.甘肃的经验数据证实了上述推断,从结构调整的视角审视甘肃的城市化战略,必须重视劳动密集型产业的发展并大力吸引东部产业转移,通过产业集群促进人口聚集.     

经济增长、收入分配与减贫进程间的动态联系——来自中国农村的经验分析

文章以贫困的收入增长偏弹性和贫困的收入分配偏弹性的性质为基础,构建了一个分析经济增长、收入分配和减贫进程之间关系的统一框架。文章着重探讨了在经济发展的不同时期,收入水平和收入不平等的初始值对经济增长的减贫能力,以及收入不平等的贫困效应的影响,并以中国农村为例,来实证检验它们之间的定性、定量关系及政策含义。     

人力资本、生育率与经济增长

本文通过对人口学与经济学共同关注的几个领域最新研究的回顾,阐明了经济学与人口学两个学科在研究对象和研究方法上的联系.同时,将这些研究成果与中国的发展现状结合起来进行分析,对更深刻地认识社会经济发展过程和相应的政策取向也大有裨益.     

就业、城镇化、城乡收入差距与中国的人口增长

基于我国2000～ 2015年的省际面板数据,将31个省市按东、中、西三大区域划分,建立个体固定效应变系数模型分析了就业、城镇化、城乡收入差距等因素对我国人口增长的影响.结果表明:我国不同区域人口增长的影响因素存在较大差异,东部地区主要受城镇化、在岗职工工资的影响;中西部地区主要受就业、城镇化和在岗职工工资的影响;在总体上,就业和城镇化对人口增长起促进作用,而城乡收入差距对人口增长起阻碍作用,其影响程度依次递减.由于人口增长的影响因素存在地区差异,为了减缓目前我国人口增长缓慢,人口老龄化速度加快,劳动力日渐短缺的状况,国家和地方政府应该根据不同的区域特征制定不同的人口政策,促进人口增长,最大限度地减缓人口老龄化可能给我国的经济发展带来的负面影响.