The Labour Market in Macedonia: A Labour Demand Analysis

Abstract. This paper examines the labour market in Macedonia, a country with the highest unemployment rate in Europe. I describe labour market institutions and policies during the transition. I also examine job creation and job destruction using firm‐level data and I estimate short‐term and long‐term elasticities of the labour demand. The analysis shows that there are regulatory barriers to the labour market flexibility. I can also conclude that the privatization of socially owned enterprises has failed to promote job creation. Nevertheless, labour market problems seem to stem from factors other than substantial sluggishness of firms in adjusting employment to variations in wages.     

Technological Innovation and Employment Reallocation

The paper describes the dynamics of employment at a firm and sector level in French industry and examines how far technological innovation can give account of it. We use a sample of 15,186 firms, over the period 1986–90. The two facts we want to explain at a firm and sector level are the net change in employment and the micro turmoil (transfers between competing firms). Innovating firms and sectors create jobs more than others over the medium run (5 years). Process innovation is more about job creation than product innovation at the firm level, but the converse is true at the sector level. This paradox is probably due to substitution effects (creative destruction).     

The Process of Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Italian Economy

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal analysis of labour flows provides a number of important indications on the characteristics of job creation and job destruction in the Italian economy, and on the role played by small firms in this process. The main indications may be summarized as follows: 1)the ratio of total separations to total work-force is remarkably high, and almost completely independent of the business cycle: one out of four workers leaves his/her position each year in the economy at large. In the small firms sector alone turnover is much higher, with total separations almost approaching 50|X% of employment; 2)as the economy takes a downturn, it is mainly the number of jobs created through expansion of existing firms that follows this cycle, while separations remain roughly constant; 3)the proportion of jobs created via the establishment of new firms is modest compared to that attributable to the expansion of existing plants (16.0-14.491)). Likewise, the proportion of job losses due to closures visi vis employment shedding by contracting firms, is of the same order of magnitude; 4)job creation and destruction is very high in the small firm sector. Employment in firms of dimension (0-19) is 25.8 % of total employment at the beginning of the observation period (1978) and reaches 28% at its end (1984). Yet the proportion of job creation attributable to small firms is approximately 60% of the new positions due to expansion of existing firms in manufacturing, and 68% in the services. The fraction of jobs destroyed by small firms is somewhat lower: about 46% in manufacturing and 59% in the services; 5)he small firms contribution to net job creation appears even more remarkable both in the aggregate, as well as within all sectors of economic activity and geographical areas. In 1978-80 net employment change in manufacturing is 106,000 units per year; correspondingly net job creation by firms (0-19) is alone 222,000. In the services the proportion between net employment change and the share of the small firms is 1:3. In 1981-83, while in manufacturing over 213,000 jobs are destroyed on average each year, net creation by small firms is still positive (+ 48,000); in the services the overall change is very small (+ 3,000), while the net contribution of small firms is + 53,000.     

New Firms as Employers: The Wage Penalty for Voluntary and Involuntary Job Switchers

According to previous research, new firms pay lower wages. However, previous studies have been unable to control for the possibility that the opportunity costs of accepting employment at new firms may differ across individuals. In this paper, we investigate whether a wage penalty for being employed at a new firm exists if we take the individual employee's experience and status in the labour market into consideration. We focus on individuals who decide to switch jobs and use matched employee–employer data about all firms and employees in Sweden for the period 1998–2010. Our results show that the share of job transitions into lower wages are higher for those who switch to new firms compared with incumbent firms (40 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively). Our endogenous wage equation estimates indicate that being an involuntary job switcher has an equally negative effect on wages at both new and incumbent firms. However, the positive effect of education on wages is more pronounced for job switchers selecting into incumbent firms.     

Heterogeneous Firm Responses to Rising Teenage Wages

Substantial youth minimum wage changes in New Zealand between 2000 and 2007 raised teenage average wages by 5–10 per cent relative to those for adults. We use Statistics New Zealand's Linked Employer–Employee Database (LEED) to examine whether firms' teenage labour demand responses to these changes are greater for firms with higher teenage‐employment share. We find evidence that high teen‐employers reduced their teen employment relative to other firms and had lower survival rates over the period. However, firms that entered the main teen‐employment industries had higher teen‐employment shares than continuing firms. The results are consistent with endogenous technology adoption in response to non‐marginal changes in relative wages.     

Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets

We study the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes for young workers using US county‐level panel data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2009. We go beyond the usual estimates of earnings and employment effects to consider how differences across states in the minimum wage affect worker turnover via separations and accessions and job turnover through new job creation and job losses. We find that a higher minimum wage level is associated with higher earnings, lower employment and reduced worker turnover for those in the 14–18 age group. For workers aged 19–21 and 22–24, we find less consistent evidence of minimum wage effects on earnings and employment. But, even for these age groups, a higher minimum wage is found to reduce accessions, separations and the turnover rate.     

ON‐THE‐JOB SEARCH AND MORAL HAZARD

We analyze the interaction between intertemporal incentive contracts and search frictions associated with on‐the‐job search. In our model, agency problems call for wage contracts with deferred compensation. At the same time workers do on‐the‐job search. Deferred compensation improves workers' incentives to exert effort but distorts their on‐the‐job search decisions. We show that deferred compensation is less attractive when the value to the worker–firm pair of on‐the‐job search is high. Moreover, the interplay between search frictions and wage contracts creates feedback effects. If firms in equilibrium use contracts with deferred compensation, fewer firms with vacancies enter the on‐the‐job search market, and this in turn reduces the distortions created by deferred compensation. These feedback effects between the incentive contracts used and the activity level in the search markets can lead to multiple equilibria: a low‐turnover equilibrium where firms use deferred compensation, and a high‐turnover equilibrium where they do not. Furthermore, the model predicts that firms are more likely to use deferred compensation when search frictions are high and when the gains from on‐the‐job search are small.     

Temporary Contracts,Employment Protection,and Collective Bargaining

This paper examines the effect of employment protection in a matching model with endogenous job destruction, collective bargaining, and two types of employment contracts. Using this framework, we show that (i) the impact on job creation and job destruction caused by reducing the firing costs associated with temporary jobs depends on the labour unions' bargaining strength and the gap in firing costs between contracts; (ii) reducing the firing costs associated with permanent jobs unambiguously decreases equilibrium unemployment if labour unions have strong bargaining power; and (iii) the impact caused by the firing costs differs between collective and individual bargaining.     

HOW DESTRUCTIVE IS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION? EFFECTS OF JOB LOSS ON JOB MOBILITY,WITHDRAWAL AND INCOME

We analyze short and long‐term effects of worker displacement. Our sample consists of male workers displaced from Norwegian manufacturing plants. We find that displacement increases the probability of leaving the labor force by 31%. The drop‐out rate from the labor force is particularly high in the first years following displacement. The average earnings effects for those who remain in the labor force are moderate, a 3% loss relative to non‐displaced workers after seven years. Splitting displaced workers on within‐ and between‐firm movers, we find that the estimated earnings loss is entirely driven by between‐firm movers who experience a 3.6% loss. Transfers to other plants within multi‐plant firms upon displacement are quite common. Our results support the view that human capital is partly firm specific and partly industry specific. We find no evidence suggesting that human capital is plant specific.     

利润分享:一种协调人力资本的治理手段

在Mumcu模型的基础上,建立一个人力资本密集型企业与人力资本有关薪酬谈判的模型,即人力资本凭借其专用性使其投资重要性不断攀升,在与企业薪酬谈判中的话语权也不断增强。在这种情况下,关键性的人力资本已不仅限于获取劳动市场上的均衡工资,更可以与企业分享其创造的价值。反观,当人力资本密集型企业生产对关键性人力资本的依赖性不断增强并且难以控制时,企业只有通过与其分享租金以协调人力资本与企业保持合作,实现共赢。     

Psychological capital and the intent to pursue employment with developed and emerging market multinational corporations

The entrance of emerging market multinational corporations (EMNCs) into developed markets and their subsequent demand for western talent is an important new research topic in the field of human resource development (HRD). Upon entering developed markets, EMNCs will find themselves competing with a host of well-established western firms for the same limited pool of talent. Due to possible liability of origin issues, EMNCs may be perceived as less attractive employers. Human resource development professionals tasked with helping these newly arrived firms to recruit necessary talent will find the ability to identify those individuals most likely to pursue employment with an EMNC highly beneficial. In pursuit of this goal, five hypotheses were tested on 703 American and European respondents. Specifically, we examined the interaction between the level of psychological capital of western job seekers and their intent to pursue employment in order to identify possible predispositions for finding EMNCs as attractive employers.     

Did small and medium enterprises maintain better jobs during the early years of the recession? Job quality multidimensional evidence from Spain

While the literature has indeed confirmed a general tendency linking small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to a dynamic of greater job creation, there is little available evidence on what has happened to job quality since the financial crisis. Through a representative sample of 5311 employees in 2008 (first year of job destruction) and 4925 employees in 2010 (last year for which data were available), and using a two-stage structural equation model, this article empirically analyses the multidimensional determinants of job quality, by enterprise-size class, in Spain. The research has revealed three main results. First, job quality in Spain improved in all enterprises, regardless of their size, during the early years of the recession. Second, the greatest improvements were found in SMEs. Although job quality was already better in SMEs than in large enterprises in 2008, the differences between them subsequently widened. Third, this accelerated divergence was explained by the following dimensions: working conditions, work intensity, health and safety at work, and work–life balance. These dimensions were much more positive in SMEs. Employment-related public policy should therefore focus more specifically on SMEs. There are two reasons for this. First, despite the recession, SMEs have shown themselves to be key factors in the explanation of job quality. Second, by making changes to their value generation model, they could continue to drive the creation of better quality jobs.     

The Pace of Job Creation and Destruction,Cyclical Shocks and Employment Dynamics

This paper investigates (un)employment dynamics in response to labour demand shocks using a small empirical flow model for the labour market in The Netherlands. The model explicitly takes account of the propagation of shocks through the various duration classes of unemployment and allows for duration dependence in the state of unemployment. A sensitivity analysis shows that 1. congestion in the matching process due to the increase in the pace of job creation and destruction may have substantial effects on (un)employment dynamics; 2. the effects depend very much on the initial pace of labour market dynamics and they are larger when the initial pace is low; 3. the labour market may be out of its equilibrium for quite a long time after a shock occurs; 4. fluctuations in the pace of job creation and destruction only lead to unemployment persistence in the model when the escape probability from long term unemployment is zero; otherwise, the economy returns to its original equilibrium, albeit with long adjustment lags in the case that the initial pace of structural change and/or the escape probability for long term unemployed is low.     

人工智能、技术进步与低技能就业——基于中国制造业企业的实证研究

人工智能重塑中国制造业核心竞争力的同时，也加剧了行业内低技能型劳动力被取代的危机。本文以技术进步影响劳动力技能结构的理论机制为分析框架，聚焦人工智能与制造业的融合对低技能就业比重的因果效应。基于2011-2017年制造业企业的面板数据，首先将人工智能与制造业的融合定义为"AI产业化"和"产业AI化"，基于定义、逐家判断人工智能企业名单并定位人工智能的初始时间，再采用双重差分法围绕人工智能对低技能就业比重的因果效应及效应的传导机制展开实证分析。实证结果表明：（1）制造业企业融合人工智能显著降低了低技能的就业比重，即在一定程度上制造业内低技能潜在的就业机会被人工智能所挤出；（2）人工智能对低技能就业比重的负向效应具有动态异质性，即企业融合人工智能的时间越长，低技能就业比重下降的越多；（3）人工智能虽然通过刺激当期资本积累和收入扩张补偿了部分低技能就业比重的减少，但同时降低了低技能劳动力的相对边际产出，促使企业最终减少低技能员工的就业比重。     

Job Tenure,Labour Mobility and Wage Profiles

Abstract. The features and the length of the attachment of workers to firms represent a central aspect of the labour relationship. The length of service is an important determinant of wages and of non-pecuniary benefits; it affects internal mobility in the firm, and insulates workers with long job tenure from unemployment. In this paper it is argued that the traditional “spot” labour market Characterization is difficult to reconcile with the existence of long term employment relationships. A number of alternative theories which predict the existence of an employer-worker attachment proposed, and their implications discussed. The relevance of long term employment relationships is then tested using micro-data for the Italian manufacturing industry. An appropriate methodology for the analysis of the duration of employment is developed. and separate “job tenure” equations for white and blue collar workers are estimated. A higher educational attainment - ceteris paribus- appears to increase the probability of a job separation; conversely, a higher working experience, previous to the current job, tends to reduce it. The effect of firm size is negative, as larger organizations seem to favour longer employment spells. Outside opportunities show a strong positive effect on the probability of separation. Finally, conditional on the current wage, the probability of leaving the job increases with the length of time worked. However, when the unconditional outcome is considered, separation decline with tenure; in this case. it is argued, the wage effect more than outweighs the conditional effect. This result is consistent with the predictions of both “specific” human capital and job matching theories.     

The role of firm ownership on internationalization: evidence from two transition economies

This paper investigates how different types of owners influence the extent of firm internationalization, measured by the share of firm exports in total sales. The results of the analysis carried out using firm level data of Estonian and Slovenian firms, show that the firms under the control of the insider owners are, on average, more internationalized. State control, on the other hand, hampers internationalization efforts. Further, more productive firms, larger firms, more capital-intensive firms and those with high level of investment in both fixed capital and R&D are more successful in internationalization process. Finally, high market share also leads to increased internationalization through exports as firms seek to expand in foreign markets after having dominated the domestic ones.     

DISCRIMINATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION

We study a search model with employment protection legislation. We show that if the output from the match is uncertain at the hiring stage, a discriminatory equilibrium may exist in which workers with the same productive characteristics are subject to different hiring standards. If a bad match takes place, discriminated workers will take longer to find another job, prolonging the costly period for the firm. This makes it less profitable for firms to hire discriminated workers, thus sustaining the discrimination. In contrast to Becker's model, the existence of employers with a taste for discrimination may make it more profitable to discriminate, even for firms without discriminatory preferences.     

Unemployment and Employment Protection in a Unionized Economy with Search Frictions

Abstract. In the theoretical literature, the effects of employment protection on unemployment are ambiguous. Higher employment protection reduces job creation as well as job destruction. However, in most models, wages are bargained individually between workers and firms. Using a conventional matching model in which a monopoly union sets wages, I show that employment protection can unambiguously increase unemployment. Interestingly, I find that tightening the restrictions on redundancies and dismissals may even increase the probability of dismissal.     

DO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AFFECT FIRMS’ DEMAND FOR DISABLED WORKERS?

A number of OECD countries aim to encourage work integration of disabled persons using quota policies. For instance, Austrian firms must provide at least one job to a disabled worker per 25 nondisabled workers and are subject to a tax if they do not. This “threshold design” provides causal estimates of the noncompliance tax on disabled employment if firms do not manipulate nondisabled employment; a lower and upper bound on the causal effect can be constructed if they do. Results indicate that firms with 25 nondisabled workers employ about 0.04 (or 12%) more disabled workers than without the tax; firms do manipulate employment of nondisabled workers but the lower bound on the employment effect of the quota remains positive; employment effects are stronger in low‐wage firms than in high‐wage firms; and firms subject to the quota of two disabled workers or more hire 0.08 more disabled workers per additional quota job. Moreover, increasing the noncompliance tax increases excess disabled employment, whereas paying a bonus to overcomplying firms slightly dampens the employment effects of the tax.