Price Effects of the Minimum Wage: A Survey Data Analysis for the German Construction Sector

Utilizing the link between employment and price changes as a result of minimum wages, we use firm‐level data to evaluate the effect of minimum wage introduction in the German construction sector. In East Germany we find significant positive price effects that exclude the possibility of rising employment. Rather, the results indicate the existence of a competitive sector‐specific labour market, and thus declining employment. In contrast, we cannot find any significant price reaction for West Germany. This suggests that the implemented minimum wage in West Germany is too low in comparison to the predominantly paid wages and is hence not binding.     

What Drives the Demand for Temporary Agency Workers?

As part of the general trend towards increased employment flexibility temporary agency employment has grown steadily in most European countries. The paper examines, first, whether the deregulation of temporary agency employment is responsible for the growth of the flexible staffing industry. Second, we investigate the cyclical behavior of temporary agency employment. Using monthly data for Germany, we show that the liberalization of the law regulating the sector is not the main reason for the surge of this employment form. Our analysis reveals, moreover, that temporary agency employment exhibits strong cyclical behavior and correlates with main economic indicators in real time.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Public‐Sector Unions

Motivated by the highly unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public‐sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public‐sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970–2007. The union model is an improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing higher welfare losses.     

PhD Graduates with Post‐doctoral Qualification in the Private Sector: Does It Pay Off?

Abstract. In this paper, we address the question of the early careers of French PhD graduates in science and engineering sciences in 1996. Post‐doctoral training was initially developed for PhD graduates wishing to embark on a career in the public sector. However, a large proportion of post‐doctorate graduates turn to the private sector, and in particular to occupations that do not involve research. The question we raise is that of the wage premium on post‐doctoral training. To control for selection bias arising in the case where unobservable elements are correlated between participation and wages, we first estimate a treatment effect model. The main finding is that when selection bias is not controlled for, post‐doctoral participation increases earnings; however, when selection bias is controlled for, the participation in a post‐doctoral programme has no positive effect. With regards to this finding we show that post‐doctoral programmes play much more the role of a signal in the first stage of a career. This finding is also reinforced when we use a bivariate selection rule to control for the endogenous nature of having been recruited in the private sector.     

CAN WE INFER HOSPITAL QUALITY FROM MEDICAL GRADUATES’ RESIDENCY CHOICES?

This paper uses a novel approach to infer hospital technical quality from revealed preferences over residency programs. Specifically, we use Spanish medical graduates’ residency choices made from 1995 to 2000. We start by estimating a model of medical graduates preferences that controls for hospital, proximity, specialty, and gender effects. We interpret the coefficients on the hospital dummy variables as measures of medical graduates’ preferences over hospitals. Our results show that graduates do indeed discriminate between hospitals and that their preferences correlate with hospital‐specific covariates arguably related to hospital training quality. We then show that preferences from medical graduates are positively and statistically significantly correlated with risk‐adjusted hospital rankings based on five alternative outcome measures. Finally, we construct reputation scores for each hospital using news story counts in three media outlets and find that medical graduates’ preferences are especially valuable for inference of hospital technical quality of care as they do not simply reflect well known reputation.     

THE RISE OF THE EAST AND THE FAR EAST: GERMAN LABOR MARKETS AND TRADE INTEGRATION

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and “the East” (China and Eastern Europe) in the period 1988–2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross‐regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade flows of other high‐income countries as instruments for regional import and export exposure. We find that the rise of the East in the world economy caused substantial job losses in German regions specialized in import‐competing industries, both in manufacturing and beyond. Regions specialized in export‐oriented industries, however, experienced even stronger employment gains and lower unemployment. In the aggregate, we estimate that this trade integration has caused some 442,000 additional jobs in the economy and contributed to retaining the manufacturing sector in Germany. This is almost exclusively driven by the rise of Eastern Europe, not by China. We also conduct an analysis at the individual worker level, and find that trade had a stabilizing overall effect on employment relationships.     

Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets

We study the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes for young workers using US county‐level panel data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2009. We go beyond the usual estimates of earnings and employment effects to consider how differences across states in the minimum wage affect worker turnover via separations and accessions and job turnover through new job creation and job losses. We find that a higher minimum wage level is associated with higher earnings, lower employment and reduced worker turnover for those in the 14–18 age group. For workers aged 19–21 and 22–24, we find less consistent evidence of minimum wage effects on earnings and employment. But, even for these age groups, a higher minimum wage is found to reduce accessions, separations and the turnover rate.     

Does Private Higher Education Improve Employment Outcomes? Comparative Analysis from Egypt

Private players are often perceived as powerful drivers of innovation and efficiency. This argument remains untested in the field of higher education. This paper examines whether there are differences in the labour market outcomes for graduates of public and private higher education institutions in Egypt. Relying on a unique data set tracing graduates, the analysis shows that the type of higher education institution has no statistically significant effect on graduates’ job security and earnings. Ascribed characteristics of gender and parental socio-economic background, along with the sector of employment, were the key predictors of these labour market outcomes.     

Heterogeneous Firm Responses to Rising Teenage Wages

Substantial youth minimum wage changes in New Zealand between 2000 and 2007 raised teenage average wages by 5–10 per cent relative to those for adults. We use Statistics New Zealand's Linked Employer–Employee Database (LEED) to examine whether firms' teenage labour demand responses to these changes are greater for firms with higher teenage‐employment share. We find evidence that high teen‐employers reduced their teen employment relative to other firms and had lower survival rates over the period. However, firms that entered the main teen‐employment industries had higher teen‐employment shares than continuing firms. The results are consistent with endogenous technology adoption in response to non‐marginal changes in relative wages.     

Weather‐related Employment Subsidies as a Remedy for Seasonal Unemployment? Evidence from Germany

Many European countries try to reduce seasonal unemployment by subsidizing short‐time employment during the winter period. Despite such costly efforts, pronounced seasonal unemployment patterns continue to exist. This puts doubts on the effectiveness of such policy interventions. This paper provides a first empirical assessment of the effectiveness of different subsidy schemes by exploiting the institutional variation in a German subsidy scheme that applies to the construction sector and the variation in local weather and business cycle conditions across 20 years. The findings confirm that generous short‐time subsidies reduce individual lay‐off probabilities in the case of poor weather conditions. However, the link between weather conditions and seasonal lay‐offs is much less strong than expected, making planned capacity reductions the main suspect for causing seasonality in unemployment patterns.     

Skill Acquisition in the Informal Economy and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Informal jobs offer skill acquisition opportunities that may facilitate a future switch to formal employment for young workers. In this sense, informal training on the job may be a viable alternative to formal schooling in an economy with a large and diverse informal sector. In this paper, I investigate if these considerations are relevant for the schooling decisions of young individuals using panel data for 17 Latin American countries and micro‐level data for Turkey. Specifically, I ask if the prevalence of informal jobs distorts schooling attainment. I concentrate on three measures of schooling outcomes: (1) secondary education enrollment rate; (2) out‐of‐school rate for lower secondary school; and (3) tertiary education graduation rate. I find that the secondary education enrollment rate is negatively correlated with the size of the informal economy, whereas the out‐of‐school rate is positively correlated. Moreover, the tertiary education graduation rates tend to fall as the informal employment opportunities increase. This means that informal training on the job may be crowding out school education in developing countries. Policies that can potentially affect the size of the informal sector should take into consideration these second‐round effects on aggregate schooling outcomes.     

Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector

One of the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. Between 1950 and 2000, service‐sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment. However, over this time, the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector. In this paper, we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors, and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector. We specify and estimate a two‐sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework. Our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs: output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero. In addition, we find that demand‐side factors, that is, technological change and movements in product and capital prices, were responsible for the growth of the service sector.     

Employment Policy,the Crowding‐out Effect and Imperfect Competition

This paper presents a macroeconomic model with imperfect competition in the commodity market, and uses it to address how the commodity market’s structure is related to the efficacy of government employment policies. It is found that job creation in the public sector may lead to a decrease in output and an increase in prices. In particular, these adverse side‐effects will be alleviated when competition in the goods market is less perfect. We also find that public‐sector job creation definitely has a positive effect on total employment, though it may crowd out private‐sector employment.     

A New Look at the Public Wage Premium in Italy: The Role of Schooling Endogeneity

This paper uses a sample of male workers to estimate public and private wage structures and the public wage premium for Italy. Results from a model with endogenous sector and schooling suggest that public employees have on average lower unobserved wage potentials in both sectors than private employees, but work in the sector where they benefit from a comparative wage advantage. Schooling is positively correlated with wages in both sectors, and controlling for that is crucial to get more reliable estimates and predictions. The associated average unconditional public wage premium is 12 per cent. The net premium is 9 per cent, but not statistically significant.     

Earning While Learning: When and How Student Employment is Beneficial

Although studies of student employment (‘earning while learning’) mostly find positive wage effects, they do not adequately consider the relation of the employment to the field of study. We investigate how different types of student employment during tertiary education affect short‐ and long‐term labour market returns. Beyond examining differences between non‐working and part‐time working students, we distinguish between student employment related and unrelated to the field of study. Our results show significant positive labour market returns of ‘earning while learning’ only for student employment related to the field of study. These returns consist of a lower unemployment risk, shorter job‐search duration, higher wage effects, and greater job responsibility.     

ATTITUDES,POLICIES, AND WORK

We study whether cultural attitudes towards gender, the young, and leisure are significant determinants of the employment rates of women and of the young, and of hours worked. We do this controlling for policies, institutions and other structural characteristics of the economy which may influence labor market outcomes. We identify the effect of culture exploiting the evolution over time within country, as well as across countries, of cultural attitudes. We also address the endogeneity of attitudes, policies, and institutions, and allow for the persistent nature of labor market outcomes. We find that culture matters for women's employment rates and for hours worked. However, policies, in particular employment protection legislation and taxes, are also important and their quantitative impact substantial.     

Industrialization,Productivity and the Shift to Services and Information

All major world economies are exhibiting a shift from products to services in terms of relative share of GNP and employment. A well accepted explanation for this shift to services has been the lower productivity growth in services relative to manufacturing. A second trend visible in the United States and other advanced economies is that from material‐intensive to information‐intensive sectors with the latter growing relative to the former. There does not seem to be a generally accepted explanation for this shift; in fact, here it would appear that productivity in information‐intensive sectors is increasing. We construct a model of an economy with endogenous production and consumption decisions by utility maximizing individuals. We show that differential productivity changes can result in either relative growth or decline of a sector. A second factor affecting the direction of change is the degree to which consumption of sector outputs approaches satiation. When marginal utility of additional consumption drops sufficiently low, productivity increases can lead to declines in the relative size and share of, and employment in the sector. Concurrently, increases in productivity increase average wealth as expected, but income inequality can either increase or decrease.     

DO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AFFECT FIRMS’ DEMAND FOR DISABLED WORKERS?

A number of OECD countries aim to encourage work integration of disabled persons using quota policies. For instance, Austrian firms must provide at least one job to a disabled worker per 25 nondisabled workers and are subject to a tax if they do not. This “threshold design” provides causal estimates of the noncompliance tax on disabled employment if firms do not manipulate nondisabled employment; a lower and upper bound on the causal effect can be constructed if they do. Results indicate that firms with 25 nondisabled workers employ about 0.04 (or 12%) more disabled workers than without the tax; firms do manipulate employment of nondisabled workers but the lower bound on the employment effect of the quota remains positive; employment effects are stronger in low‐wage firms than in high‐wage firms; and firms subject to the quota of two disabled workers or more hire 0.08 more disabled workers per additional quota job. Moreover, increasing the noncompliance tax increases excess disabled employment, whereas paying a bonus to overcomplying firms slightly dampens the employment effects of the tax.     

Employment Protection and Temporary Work Agencies

Employers who use temporary agency staff in contrast to regular staff are not affected by employment protection regulations when terminating a job. Therefore, services provided by temporary work agencies may be seen as a substitute for regular employment. In this paper, we analyse the effects of employment protection on the size of the temporary work agency sector in a model of equilibrium unemployment. We find that higher firing costs may even reduce temporary work agency employment if agencies themselves are subject to employment protection, a consideration that distinguishes our results from those for fixed‐term employment arrangements.