The effects of the Great Recession on American families

The Great Recession was marked by historic rates of unemployment and foreclosure and caused substantial household economic hardship and widespread economic uncertainty. I review recent social scientific research on the effects of the Great Recession on American families. I first generate a set of expectations for how the Great Recession would have affected (a) marriage and cohabitation, (b) fertility, and (c) relationship quality and divorce based on existing sociological and demographic theory and research. I then discuss the key methods that scholars have used to gauge the effects of the Great Recession in these outcome areas. My review of research to date indicates that the recession had modest effects on marriage and cohabitation, but significant negative effects on fertility. Notably, these fertility effects are evident among unmarried and low socio‐economic‐status (SES) women whom prior research has suggested decouple fertility from economic concerns. Finally, there is modest evidence that the Great Recession reduced relationship quality, but it appears that the costs of divorce restrained any increase in dissolution.     

Health and health behaviors during the great recession: a note on drinking,smoking, obesity,and physical activity

Previous studies have shown that recessions are typically associated with better health and health behaviors. With the exception of a few recent studies however, these studies focus on sample periods that end prior to the Great Recession. The few exceptions that extend the analysis period beyond the Great Recession suggest that the pro-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality obtained in earlier studies might have weakened over time. In this paper, we revisited the relationship between state unemployment rate and a large set of outcomes of health and health behaviors using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) between 1990 and 2014. Overall, our results suggest that state unemployment rate is weakly related to both health and health behaviors as our estimates are too small to have any meaningful implications, although they are largely imprecisely estimated. Finally, we tested whether the Great Recession played a significant role in influencing the pattern in the relationship between unemployment rate and health and health behaviors. Our results from this analysis do not reveal any measurable recession effect, although the estimates are again largely imprecise.     

Youth earnings and labour market volatility in Europe

The authors provide new evidence on youth earnings and labour market volatility, including flows into and out of employment, across Europe during the Great Recession. EU‐SILC data for the period 2004–13 reveal large disparities in volatility levels and trends across European countries. As expected, the Great Recession increased youth labour market volatility, offsetting the trends observed over the previous years of economic prosperity. A variance decomposition exercise points to greater exposure to worker turnover in southern Europe. Fixed effects regression on labour market institutions relates higher unemployment benefits and more stringent employment protection legislation to lower earnings and labour market volatility.     

Pathways to Parenthood in Social and Family Contexts: Decade in Review, 2020

Whether, and under what circumstances, people become parents has implications for individual identity, family relationships, the well-being of adults and children, and population growth and age structure. Understanding the factors that influence pathways to parenthood is central to the study of families and can inform policies aimed at changing childbearing behaviors. This review summarizes recent trends in fertility as well as research on the predictors and correlates of childbearing, with a focus on the United States and on research most relevant to family scholars. U.S. fertility has declined in recent years, perhaps reflecting the influence of the Great Recession and increasing economic inequality, and there is growing divergence in behaviors across social class. Scholars of childbearing have developed theories to better understand how childbearing is shaped by life course processes and social contexts, but more work is needed to understand group differentials, refine measurement and theories, and better integrate men and couples. Childbearing research has important implications for social policy, but the application of research to policy is hindered by ideological factors.     

The Desire to Thrive: Families Overcoming Economic Hardships Through Educational Aspirations

The immigrant Latino community is faced with political challenges unmatched in the United States. Many of these individuals came to the United States to find a more successful place to raise a family due to increased work opportunities. After the Great Recession, many of these opportunities were terminated with the closure of industrialized manufacturing corporations. With the loss of jobs, increased economic pressure mounted and hardships, especially in the educational system, increased. The current study addresses how immigrant Latinos view the education environment in North Central Indiana. A 3 year ethnographic research project presents a greater understanding of the complex economic and educational ecology. For this study, 40 families consisting of 63 parents were identified, along with seven school liaisons. Fifty-six percent of the participating Latinos received less than a high school diploma, adding additional economic strain to families. Qualitative reports are framed around in-vivo coding factors resulting in two themes, Policy, Educational Practices, and Sociological Perceptions and Cultural Desire to Better One’s Family. Evidence from this study calls for policy change to create unity and a place free from fear for Latinos to learn about programs available to aid their children’s academic attainment.     

Migration from Latin American countries to the United States: the economic,social and reproductive lives of Hispanic female immigrants, 1980

The authors describe the socioeconomic characteristics and fertility patterns of female immigrants from Latin America to the United States, with a focus on reasons for fertility differentials. "Using the one per cent public use sample from the 1970 and 1980 United States census, we first compare changes in socio economic characteristics from 1970 to 1980, and then examine the determinants of fertility of female immigrants to the United States, aged 16-49, from four Latin American areas or countries of birth.... The findings...suggest that there are direct effects of demographic, assimilation, and socioeconomic variables beyond those mediated by the variables in each of these sets. Further, regardless of the model, the effect of the clusters of demographic characteristics is most apparent. Age categories and marital status are the strongest indexed determinants of immigrant fertility.... The effect of education and employment is strong. Among assimilation variables, duration of residence and language ability are significant determinants of Hispanic immigrant fertility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Family Flexibility in Response to Economic Conditions: Fathers' Involvement in Child‐Care Tasks

Recession‐related increases in men's child care are well documented, but supporting evidence describes the last several decades of the 20th century. Changes in family life and in the association between families' economic conditions and the macro economy provide reason to question the continued existence of a “recession effect.” This article evaluates the frequency of married and cohabiting fathers' engagement in the day‐to‐day tasks of child care during the so‐called Great Recession, using data from male respondents to the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth. Results indicated an increase in men's frequency of engagement in physical care and feeding, starting in 2008 and continuing into 2010. The share of men engaged in daily play fell sharply at the recession's onset but rebounded in subsequent years. These results suggest that, even with a narrowing of the gendered division of domestic labor, room remains for families to respond flexibly to economic shifts.     

Trapped in the Working Class? Prospects for the Intergenerational (Im)Mobility of Latino Youth

Opportunities for upward mobility have been declining in the United States in recent decades. Within this context, I examine the mobility trajectories of a contemporary cohort of 1.5‐, second‐, and third‐plus‐generation Latino youth. Drawing on survey data from California that accounts for the precarious legal status of many 1.5 generation immigrants, I find that Latino youths' patterns of postsecondary enrollment and employment do not differ by generation since migration. Additionally, I do not find evidence of racial/ethnic barriers to Latino youths' enrollment in less selective colleges and participation in the labor market. Yet, given the low socioeconomic origins of many Latino youth and their correspondingly low 4‐year college enrollment rates, only a small proportion will likely enjoy upward mobility through jobs that require a bachelor's degree. Overall, the cohort of Latino youth coming of age during the Great Recession is poised to experience working‐class stagnation. This group's future access to economic and political positions of power will likely be limited by their low enrollment rates in 4‐year colleges in general, but in selective postsecondary institutions in particular.     

Foreclosure,Inequality, and the Difference That Place Makes

While the Great Recession and the associated rise in foreclosures significantly impacted households across the United States, default rates in rural areas and rural‐urban foreclosure differences have failed to attract substantial research attention. To expand the scale and scope of the foreclosure literature, this article examines place‐based differences in estimated foreclosure rates across U.S. counties, which are classified as urban, suburban, micropolitan, or rural. Defaults are considered both overall and for each county classification, and are related to income distribution and inequality, homeownership, adjudication of default, place‐based factors including amenity scores and proximity to urban areas, and geographic region. The article finds a complex relationship among these variables, with inequality itself negatively associated with default rates and lower‐middle?income households positively related to foreclosure. Further, while proximity to urban areas is positively related to foreclosure rates among nonurban counties, natural amenities are related to lower default rates in these areas. The article concludes by considering policy implications, and recommends expanding foreclosure mitigation and prevention strategies to nonurban places.     

The Great Recession and risk for child abuse and neglect

This paper examines the association between the Great Recession and four measures of the risk for maternal child abuse and neglect: (1) maternal physical aggression; (2) maternal psychological aggression; (3) physical neglect by mothers; and (4) supervisory/exposure neglect by mothers. It draws on rich longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal birth cohort study of families in 20 U.S. cities (N = 3177; 50% African American, 25% Hispanic; 22% non-Hispanic white; 3% other). The study collected information for the 9-year follow-up survey before, during, and after the Great Recession (2007–2010). Interview dates were linked to two macroeconomic measures of the Great Recession: the national Consumer Sentiment Index and the local unemployment rate. Also included are a wide range of socio-demographic controls, as well as city fixed effects and controls for prior parenting. Results indicate that the Great Recession was associated with increased risk of child abuse but decreased risk of child neglect. Households with social fathers present may have been particularly adversely affected. Results also indicate that economic uncertainty during the Great Recession, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index and the unemployment rate, had direct effects on the risk of abuse or neglect, which were not mediated by individual-level measures of economic hardship or poor mental health.     

Blown off-course? Weight gain among the economically insecure during the great recession

This paper adds to the “costs of recessions” literature by examining whether the Great Recession caused an increase in body mass index (BMI) among economically insecure working age adults. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design and two panels of the Canadian National Population Health Survey, we compare the pre-recession era (2004–2005) with the Great Recession (2008–2009). In addition to stratifying by gender, quantile regressions examine BMI changes at different points along the outcome distribution, and we extend our DiD model to examine how effects vary across income, education, and age. Our results suggest that the increased economic stress of job insecurity or joblessness during the Great Recession caused a 2-point increase in BMI for females, and a 3-point increase for males aged 45–64. Results weakly suggest that lower educated males who were economically insecure during the Great Recession also gained 3 BMI points. For working age Canadians of average height, this translates to a 12 and 20 lb (5.44 and 9.07 kilogram) increase for vulnerable females and males respectively.     

DOES THE GREAT RECESSION IMPLY THE END OF THE GREAT MODERATION? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

In this paper we examine whether or not the Great Recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties. Based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries, our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the Great Moderation period but rather that the Great Recession is characterized by a dramatic short‐lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility. We show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on GARCH specifications. (JEL E32, C22, O40)     

Local Economic Opportunity and the Competing Risks of Internal and U.S. Migration in Zacatecas,Mexico1

This article uses a competing risks model to examine the effects of origin economic conditions on the probability of temporary U.S. and internal labor migration in the Mexican state of Zacatecas. We measure origin economic conditions with municipal‐level indices of employment and small‐scale investment opportunities that we constructed from population and economic census data. The results of our analysis demonstrate the important influence of local employment and investment opportunities on migration outcomes. Controlling for the prior municipal rate of U.S. return migration and other factors, positive opportunities for small‐scale investment are associated with a higher risk of temporary migration to the United States. This result is consistent with investment oriented migration predicted by the new economics of labor migration theory. We also find comparable social network effects for both internal and U.S. migration. Having social ties to active migrants of one type (U.S. or internal), encourages migration of the same type and discourages migration of the other type.     

Welfare Reform and Elderly Immigrants' Naturalization: Access to Public Benefits as an Incentive for Naturalization in the United States

Welfare reform in the United States restricted non‐citizens' eligibility for public assistance programs and strengthened economic benefits from naturalization. We examine the impact of these policy changes on elderly immigrants' naturalization, considering their level of need for public benefits. Using individual data from the Current Population Survey as well as state‐level data, we employ a differences‐in‐differences approach to consider variations in time, state policy, and probability of Medicaid participation. Results show that naturalization significantly increased among elderly immigrants who were likely to participate in Medicaid, suggesting that elderly immigrants in need of Medicaid became naturalized to maintain their eligibility for public benefits after welfare reform.     

The Impact of Student Loan Debt and Student Loan Delinquency on Total,Sex‐, and Age‐specific Suicide Rates during the Great Recession

In 2012, the outstanding student loan balance in the United States surpassed $1 trillion, and between 2005 and 2012, the student loan delinquency rate increased by 77 percent. Simultaneously, by the end of the 2005–2012 time period, the total suicide rate in the United States reached the highest levels in more than a decade. To investigate the recent trends in student loans and suicide, this paper examined the association between state‐level student loan debt, student loan delinquency, and total, age‐, and sex‐specific suicide rates. The study used a hybrid (decompositional) longitudinal regression approach to examine the relationship between student loan debt, delinquency, and suicide rates during the 2005–2012 time period. The results showed student loan delinquency had a positive and significant effect on several of the suicide rates examined within states but had no effect on suicide rates between states net of controls. The results also showed student loan debt had a significant and negative association with suicide for people ages 20–24 and 25–34.     

MIND THE GAP: Religion and the Crucible of Marginality in the United States and Great Britain

Comparisons between the United States and Great Britain reveal many similarities in broad‐based religious concerns and values. Nonetheless, surveys over the last 40 years document a widening gap between the two countries in individual‐level religious commitment. This article suggests that the residual effect of prior marginalization of certain groups and the way they responded to the crucible of marginality is a critical variable to consider. The structure of the religious market in Great Britain kept peripheral groups from turning to religion for support or encouragement in their resistance to the establishment; this, however, was not the case in the religious economy of the United States. Using data collected in the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, I show that higher levels of religious commitment among particular groups with a history of marginalized status—namely African Americans and Southerners—in the United States and the lack of similar levels among similar groups in the British context—ethnic minorities and residents of Scotland and Wales—explain part of the gap in religious commitment between the two countries.     

The Spatial Concentration of America's Rural Poor Population: A Postrecession Update

This article examines changes in concentrated poverty in the rural United States between 2000 and 2012. Using data from the decennial census and American Community Survey, we address three main objectives. First, we document changes in the number and share of counties with poverty rates above 20, 30, and 40 percent, stratifying our sample by metropolitan status. Second, we use exploratory spatial methods to identify geographic patterns in county‐level poverty dynamics between 2000 and 2012. Third, we estimate the share of the population living in high‐poverty counties, and track changes over time and by race and poverty status. Overall, we find a substantial increase in concentrated poverty since 2000. Increases in both the number of high‐poverty counties and the share of the population living in these counties were widespread, though spatially and temporally uneven in some cases. We also observe convergence in concentrated poverty between rural and micropolitan areas, and between non‐Hispanic white and Hispanic populations. Overall, we observe a reversal of the declines in concentrated poverty that occurred in the 1990s, and find that in many cases this trend began prior to the Great Recession.     

The Great Recession of 2007: An Agenda for Social Justice

The Great Recession, the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, officially began in December 2007 with an 8 trillion dollar housing bubble and lasted until June 2009, resulting in loss in consumer spending and collapse in the nation’s business investment. For American workers, the Great Recession had far-reaching implications: unemployment, underemployment, pay cuts, and cutbacks in household spending. Although social work has a historical commitment to address the vulnerabilities of people and communities, we argue that the profession neglected to understand fully the factors associated with the Great Recession and to mount an agenda for justice in response to its worker-related impact.     

Explaining the United States’ Penal Exceptionalism: Political,Economic, and Social Factors

In this review, I examine explanations for why the United States is a world leader in its use of imprisonment. I first outline cross‐national trends in incarceration and then evaluate the state of the literature and empirical evidence for why the United States is more punitive than other advanced industrialized nations. I argue a confluence of political, economic, and social factors distinct to the United States context are implicated in the punitive turn in the 1970s. Specifically, United States’ penal exceptionalism is the result of (1) a shift of criminal justice policy from the judicial to the legislative branch of government; (2) political responses to social and economic changes including deindustrialization and the upheaval of race relations in the 1960s; and (3) a weak welfare state. These changes stand in stark contrast to the dynamics of criminal justice policymaking among comparable nations. However, there is a need for more comparative research on the topic, as understanding the mechanism behind the stabilization or decrease of penal populations in other countries may better elucidate the reasons for America’s divergence from international trends.     

THE DEVELOPMENTAL EFFECT OF STATE ALCOHOL PROHIBITIONS AT THE TURN OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

We examine the quasi‐randomization of alcohol consumption created by state‐level alcohol prohibition laws passed in the United States in the early part of the twentieth century. Using a large dataset of World War II enlistees, we exploit the differential timing of these laws to examine their effects on adult educational attainment, obesity, and height. We find statistically significant effects for education and obesity that do not appear to be the result of pre‐existing trends. Our findings add to the growing body of economic studies that examine the long‐run impacts of in utero and childhood environmental conditions. (JEL I18, D10, N41, N42)