理论老年抚养比与实际老年抚养比偏离分析

理论老年抚养比与实际老年抚养比存在严重偏离 ,老年人口劳动参与率及劳动年龄人口劳动参与率是影响老年抚养比偏离的主要因素 ,老年抚养比在社会经济中发挥的重要作用 ,决定了我们应当对老年抚养比偏离必须有一清晰认识 ,扭转长期以来用理论老年抚养比代替实际老年抚养比分析相关问题的习惯作法 ,走出多年来以理论老年抚养比代替实际老年抚养比的误区 ,更加科学、准确地分析和判断人口发展对社会经济发展的影响。     

老年抚养比：理论与实际的偏离

理论老年抚养比与实际老年抚养比存在严重偏离 ,老年人口劳动参与率及劳动年龄人口劳动参与率是影响老年抚养比偏离的主要因素 ,老年抚养比在社会经济中发挥的重要作用 ,决定了我们应当对老年抚养比偏离必须有一清晰认识 ,扭转长期以来用理论老年抚养比代替实际老年抚养比分析相关问题的习惯作法 ,走出多年来以理论老年抚养比代替实际老年抚养比的误区 ,更加科学、准确地分析和判断人口发展对社会经济发展的影响。     

中国人口年龄结构与消费关系的区域研究

利用1989～2008年间各省市的面板数据,分析了中国各区域居民消费率与人口年龄结构之间的关系,研究表明:中国少儿抚养比与消费率呈同向变动关系;老年抚养比与消费率呈反向变动关系,拒绝了生命周期假说。少儿抚养比降低对西部地区消费的影响高于中东部地区;老龄化对东部地区消费的抑制作用高于中西部地区。     

中国各地区人口年龄结构变动的消费效应分析

消费是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,对于影响消费的众多因素研究,大多基于收入分配不均和收入不确定性视角,而忽略了另外一个非常重要的因素,那就是人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响效应。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐,这一转变必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄-消费模式和消费率。基于我国2002-2008年省级面板数据,本文研究了各地区人口转变对消费率的影响。研究表明,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比之间分别存在正相关关系与负相关关系。     

人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

文章通过扩展世代交叠模型,考察了人口年龄结构变化对一国居民消费率的影响.基于2000～2013年中国省级面板数据,系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明:在城镇地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生正向影响,且该正向影响都随收入增长率的提高而减弱;而在农村地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生负效应,少儿抚养比的负效应随收入增长率的提高而增强,老年抚养比的负效应却呈现“倒U型”特征.研究结论表明:生命周期消费理论在中国只适用于城镇地区,并不适用于农村地区,人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异十分显著.城镇地区少儿抚养比的大幅下降和农村地区老年抚养比的持续上升是中国居民消费率长期走低的重要原因.     

老龄化下的中国未来职工抚养负担的测算与分析

文章通过建立精算模型对中国未来40年的理论抚养比和实际抚养比进行测算和分析.结果发现,虽然中国人口老龄化会使老年人口抚养比逐渐增大,但由于计划生育政策和人们生育观念的变化而导致少儿人口抚养比逐年下降,最终使得社会总抚养比在未来40年里保持稳定,增长幅度不会太大.由此作者认为,中国人口老龄化趋势不会过分加大未来在职职工的抚养负担,从而不会对现有的养老保险制度产生严重冲击.     

人口抚养比对国民储蓄的长期动态影响研究北大核心CSSCI

中国的高储蓄现象举世瞩目。1978年以来,在中国经济快速增长的过程中,国民储蓄水平不断上升,与此同时人口抚养比发生了巨大的变化,因此,探讨人口抚养比变化与国民储蓄之间的联系是分析中国高国民储蓄原因的重要方面。本文采用1978～2008年时间序列数据,利用VECM模型,研究人口抚养比变化与国民储蓄的长期动态关系,发现:1978年以来,总抚养比下降引起了国民储蓄上升,其中,少儿抚养比对国民储蓄具有显著的负向影响,老年抚养比对国民储蓄影响不显著。从影响时间看,总抚养比变化对国民储蓄影响时间约为20年,其中主要影响发生在前6年。随着总抚养比的逆转,国民储蓄将逐渐下降,高储蓄只是中国经济发展特定时期的现象。     

中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析--基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究

人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况,对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995～2014年数据的实证分析,发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征：少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势;劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势;老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势,老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型,各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异,人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关,与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小;城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势;城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势,城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势;乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。     

我国人口政策的调节时机研究

本文从研究人口抚养比入手建立人口增长的差分方程组模型,据此推算人口总量和人口抚养比的变化趋势。结果表明：人口老龄化有一个极限,不会无限制地恶化下去。同时,我国生育率控制指标的最佳调节时机至少还要再等待20年．相当长的一段时期内仍须维持现行计划生育政策不变,稳定低生育率水平,积极应对人口老龄化。     

从抚养比指标的变化看人口老化对社会负担的影响

抚养比指标一般用来测定一个国家潜在的福利,较低的抚养比意味着可能有较多的人工作,较少的人纯消费,所以需要用于受抚养人口的资金也就较少。在人口老化过程中,人口的总抚养比迅速下降,只是当老化达到一定程度后,会逐渐有所回升。所以,初期的人口老化似乎有助于减轻负担,提高国民的福利水平。但对人口老化在抚养比方面的有利作用,我们还应进行以下具体的分析。     

缓解老龄化:适度放宽生育政策有效吗?

在中国人口老龄化形势进一步加剧的背景下,通过调整生育政策来提高生育率水平以减缓人口老龄化进程、降低人口老龄化水平成为公众的愿望。调整生育政策最大的可能是全面放开二胎。以2010年第六次人口普查数据为基础,分别设定总和生育率保持目前水平1.64、从2015年、2030年和2050年起调整至更替水平四条路径,对中国未来人口老龄化趋势进行模拟。结果表明,适度放宽生育政策可以显著降低本世纪中国人口老龄化水平、减轻老年抚养负担;而且越早调整生育政策对降低人口老龄化水平及老年抚养负担的作用越显著,应在生育率失去弹性之前对生育政策进行调整。     

Minister Wang Wei on family planning policy and population aging

Mr. Wang Wei, Minister-in-Charge of the State Family Planning Commission, was interviewed by the correspondent of the magazine "Outlook Weekly" on the 16th of last July in Beijing. Mr. Wang Wei said that the aging process of China's population could not be separated from the family planning program which was an important factor leading to China's population aging. He also said that population aging in China would have its limit as any development does. The aging of China's population is the manifestation of the contradiction between the unplanned and planned reproduction of its population. Population aging will disappear as soon as the contradiction is settled. Since the aging of China's population is caused by the decrease of children, one cannot only see the social burden aggravated by the relative increase in elderly population but should also see the social burden alleviated by the decrease in the absolute number of children. Only by doing so can one see the whole picture. The allegation made by some people that the social dependency ratio would increase due to population aging is groundless. Mr. Wang Wei does not agree with the viewpoint that China may relax its policy of family planning to some extent on the ground that population aging causes the decrease in the total social dependency ratio so as to ease the difficulties brought about by the rapid population aging. The basic state policy of striving to quadruple the gross output value of industry and agriculture and to control China's population at about 1.2 billion at the end of the century is the correct policy to solve the problem of population aging in China, and it is also the only alternative.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

Immigration and the dependency ratio of a host population

This paper examines the long-term impact of constant immigration on the dependency ratio in an SI population (a stationary population through constant immigration) in the context of the stable population model. Our analysis has three main findings. First, in SI populations, a younger population (a lower aging ratio) does not necessarily have a lower dependency ratio. An SI population has a lower dependency ratio than a closed stationary population, provided immigration is concentrated around the youngest working age in the host population. Second, under the same condition, selecting high-fertility immigrants increases the dependency ratio. Third, also under the same condition, substituting working-age immigrants with young (dependent) immigrants increases the dependency ratio. Using the United Nations model age structures of immigrants, our empirical illustration confirms these analytical results.     

人口老龄化对社会保障财政支出的影响研究

人口老龄化是经济发展的必然趋势,而人口老龄化又会给经济发展带来一系列的问题,其中最直接的就是老年比重上升使老年福利支出增加,导致社会保障财政支出增加,从而影响到国民收入再分配和经济的可持续发展。本文从我国人口老龄化的现状和未来发展趋势出发,就其对社会保障财政支出的影响进行了分析,得出人口老龄化将会使负担系数上升、社会保障财政支出增加,并且在2030年以后会超过15%,最后提出了应对措施。     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

中国消费不足背后的人口结构因素——基于省际动态面板的实证研究

本文以生命周期理论为出发点．使用中国1990-2011年的省际面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法。考察了人口年龄结构变化对我国最终消费的影响。实证结果表明．少儿抚养比对最终消费有正的影响．而老年抚养比对最终消费有负的影响。我国尚处老龄化的初期，预期寿命的延长使得中老年人减少消费并增加储蓄．以保证退休后的生活水平不下降．这直接造成了我国最终消费率伴随老年抚养比的上升而下降的独特现象。在使用不同的计量技术和识别方法之后，以上结果依然稳健。从人口年龄结构角度看，我国低消费、高投资的经济发展特点仍将持续一段时间．这种情况在长期会逐渐反转。     

Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios?

The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. We compare forecasts of those ratios with forecasts of the dependency ratio, both based on the same UN population data. In all cases, we find that the dependency ratio and the old‐age dependency ratio are poor approximations to the more up‐to‐date ratios. There is little need to use the dependency ratio. More accurate measures are readily available.