Revisiting the Prediction of Financial Vulnerability

Whether or not a nonprofit organization is vulnerable to financial problems is a concern of all stakeholders of the organization. Recently, Greenlee and Trussel (2000) and Trussel and Greenlee (2001) expanded Tuckman and Chang's work (1991) to predict which organizations are financially vulnerable. This article extends the work of these authors by developing a model of financial vulnerability that includes four financial indicators, controls for the sector to which an organization belongs, and is based on a sample of over ninety‐four thousand organizations. The model is useful as a screening, monitoring, and attention‐getting device.     

DOES FINANCE ALTER THE RELATION BETWEEN INEQUALITY AND GROWTH?

This paper introduces a model in which greater inequality reduces growth in economies with low levels of financial development but that this effect is attenuated in economies with more developed systems. The model also predicts that individuals in economies with developed financial markets have a higher tolerance to inequality. Using a panel dataset that covers a large number of countries, this paper shows empirical evidence that is consistent with the main predictions of the model. Overall, this paper's major findings highlight that some of the pernicious effects of inequality can be attenuated by improving access to credit. (JEL D3, E6, P1, O4, I2)     

The Intergenerational Transmission of Financial Stress and Relationship Outcomes

Numerous studies have focused on the intergenerational transmission of poverty, financial stress, and family functioning. Other research has shown how financial stressors can predict various family processes, including parent–child interactions, family conflict, and couple communication, and relationship outcomes, including marital stability and satisfaction. This study shows continued evidence that financial stress from the male and female partner's family of origin may predict marital dissatisfaction using dyadic data techniques. Also, an exploration of indirect paths also found that the presence of current financial stress partially mediates these associations.     

后金融危机时代,中国金融机构“走出去”战略

后金融危机时代为中国金融机构"走出去"提供了难得的历史发展机遇。中国金融机构"走出去"不能盲目照搬发达国家的机制模式,必须根据我国的国情,在梳理和分析自身特点和约束条件,并在与发达国家进行综合比较的基础上,最终选择一种最适合自身的机制模式。中国金融机构应紧紧跟踪全球经济金融发展的新动向,在海外业务发展过程中力争在新金融领域实现突破。     

Determinants of financial worry and rumination

Significant parts of populations in developed countries frequently worry and ruminate about their finances. Financial worry and rumination can have serious psychological consequences, resulting in lower psychological well-being, mental-health problems, and impaired cognitive functioning. The literature lacks studies investigating the socio-demographic antecedents of and the financial processes underlying financial worry and rumination.The purpose of our study was to investigate the socio-demographic and financial antecedents of financial worry and rumination (FWR) and the financial factors mediating these relationships. We collected online self-administered survey data from a sample of the Dutch population (N = 1040). Using confirmatory factor analysis, we found that a bifactor model, including a strong and reliable general factor, provided the best explanation of the structure underlying FWR.We developed a parallel mediation model and investigated its structural relationships using structural equation modeling. After controlling for multiple hypotheses testing, our results show that income, past positive changes in one’s finances, and age are negatively related to FWR. We found no support for education level and only weak support for expected changes in one’s finances as antecedents. Furthermore, the explained variance in FWR substantially improved after adding the mediators of making ends meet, financial buffer, and perceived debts. Among these mediators, making ends meet played a key role explaining respectively half and two-thirds of the total effects of income and past changes in one’s finances on FWR. These results were robust under several specifications and were generalizable to the Dutch population. We discuss the implications of our results for future research and government policy.     

Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper explores the problem of the current global financial crisis, using a behavioral perspective. Particularly, the main objective of this paper is to test whether overconfidence bias can explain excessive volatility witnessed during global financial crisis in developed and emerging equity markets. Empirical results of EGARCH estimated models show an asymmetric effect of volatility for all equity market indexes. The relation between excessive trading volume of overconfident investors and excessive prices volatility is then estimated. The results indicate that conditional volatility is positively related to trading volume caused by overconfidence bias. This finding provides strong statistical support to the presence of overconfidence bias among investors in developed and emerging stocks markets. This cognitive bias contributes to the exceptional financial instability that erupted in 2008. However, during the subprime financial crisis period overconfidence bias cannot explain volatility because of the loss of confidence by investors in financial markets.     

The Systems Approach in a Global Perspective: The New Economy and Reindustrialization

The existing economic model leads developed and developing countries to a stalemate. The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 revealed the instability and fragility of the current economic model. We can observe the consequences of the crisis (and its continuation) up to the present time. The problem is worse in those economies where the real sector of the economy has been steadily declining during recent years. The great dependence of developed countries on the global financial system, and, in particular, the IMF, causes unemployment to increase, deskills the working-age population, reduces the level of social welfare and aggravates problems of social tension. As for developing countries, they face the problem of attracting investors to the real sector of the economy. The latest economic and social crisis shows the high level of interdependence and demonstrates that all national economies are a united economic system, and that sustainable development is possible only if all work together.     

The restructuring of the U.K. financial services industry in the 1990s: a reversal of fortune?

Whereas for much of the 1980s the financial services industry was characterised by growth and expansion, the late 1980s and early 1990s was a period of redundancies and financial losses. This paper seeks to explain this reversal of fortune and the responses of the financial services industry. The restructuring of the financial System at a global level, through a process of disintermediation, and at a national level, in response to financial re-regulation, led to an intensification of competition between financial institutions and helped produce a developed countries debt crisis, founded in personal and corporate indebtedness. In the wake of this crisis, the financial services industry has been in transition. Bureaucratic labour market models have been overturned in favour of more flexible variants, while at the same time many financial services firms have engaged in the wholesale spatial reorganisation of their activities. One important consequence has been a process of ‘financial infrastructure withdrawal’, by which services and operations are withdrawn from certain social groups and certain localities. This process, which revolves around a rubric of risk reduction and a ‘flight to quality’, has introduced an element of exclusion and closure to the operation of financial Systems within developed countries. In this sense, the reaction of the financial services industry to the developed countries debt crisis mirrors that which followed the less developed countries debt crisis of the early 1980s; that is, abandonment and retreat to a more affluent client base. As was the case during the less developed countries debt crisis, the current process of financial infrastructure withdrawal has serious social and economic implications for those social groups and localities abandoned by the financial community.     

Sirens’ Call: Understanding Poor Financial Decision Making and Credit Card Misuse

Poor financial decision-making paradigms such as misuse of credit cards exist as ruinous forms of personal debt. Psychiatric and physical health problems arise from financial distress. Significant challenges exist for consumers to become financially solvent. Obstacles that exist in overcoming financial stressors can be explained by behavioral economic theories. These theories explain why consumers make unwise financial decisions. Research, practice implications, and a financial therapy model for improving financial decision-making skills are presented. The need for social work to ally with family economic scholars and policymakers around financial literacy and the development of effective financial therapy interventions is discussed.     

Applying Z-score model to distinguish insolvent construction companies in China

Fierce competition in the construction industry in China in recent years has brought many challenges to construction contractors. It is important that any potential company insolvency be recognized at the earliest opportunity. Using financial ratios and the Altman Z-score modelling methodology, an insolvency warning model is developed in order to evaluate the performance of construction contractors in China. The model derived from this study has consistent predictability based on a three-year window of data. It combines seven financial ratios, covering a company’s finance of operation, profitability, solvency and cash flow. A single performance index is derived to differentiate whether a company has good financial standing or exhibits characteristics of insolvent companies. A mechanism to detect insolvent contractors is proposed for sustaining corporate development in construction. It is recommended for a contractor to develop a complete precaution system of financial crisis and have a regular checking of the key financial ratios as well as operation status so as to avoid insolvency.     

Indicators of Consumer Behavior: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

Data gathered by the Surveys of Consumers over the past severaldecades show that changes in consumer attitudes and expectationsoccur in advance of action. Current data can be measured andused to predict aggregate trends in consumer expenditures forhouses, cars, and large household durables, as well as the incurrenceof debt and acquisition of financial assets.     

Older Adults’ Receipt of Financial Help: Does Personality Matter?

This study examined the role of personality traits in the receipt of financial help at older ages using the 2006 and 2008 waves of Health and Retirement Study data. An investigation of (1) how the five domains of personality traits (openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) are associated with the receipt of financial help among older adults and (2) the relationship between personality traits and the source of financial help received was examined. Three sets of probit analyses were conducted. The results indicated that personality can predict financial help and the source of financial help. Specifically, older adults who exhibited relatively higher levels of neuroticism and agreeableness were more likely to receive financial help, whereas those who exhibited relatively higher levels of conscientiousness were less likely to receive financial help regardless of the source. Furthermore, older adults who had relatively higher levels of neuroticism were more likely to help themselves with individual sources such as credit cards whereas agreeable older adults were more likely to receive financial help from family members. These findings have implications for financial counseling, planning and education professionals, public assistance program directors, and policy makers. Understanding the effect of personality on financial decision-making can help with financial planning throughout life and inform outreach efforts for those in need of financial help.     

Dynamic effects of financial intermediation over the business cycle

This paper provides a empirical evidence that the financial intermediation disturbances can generate business cycles. We examine three countries whose financial sectors are fully developed but quite distinct in their institutional and regulatory circumstances; thus, we can infer whether financial intermediation disturbances differ across dissimilar financial environments. We find that the dynamic responses of output to financial intermediation shocks exhibit similar patterns in all cases studied. However, the various institutional and regulatory circumstances have generated different propagation mechanisms transmitting the financial disturbance to output in ways that lead the magnitudes of the responses to deviate across economies.     

Family identification facilitates coping with financial stress: A social identity approach to family financial resilience

Family financial stress research has typically examined negative effects of deprivation on mental health, which in turn erode financial coping. While this work acknowledges family support’s role in buffering these effects, it has typically overlooked how family identification can act to structure the experience of, and response to, economic challenge. We adopt a Social Identity approach, arguing that family identification predicts increased social support and improved well-being, which predicts more effective coping with financial problems. We explore this in two community surveys (N = 369; N = 187). In the first we show that stronger family identification and support predict better well-being, which predicts better evaluation of economic coping. In the second we replicate these findings, and also show that the relationship between well-being and financial distress is fully mediated by perceptions of ‘Collective Family Financial Efficacy’. These findings point to a more positive understanding of how family cohesion can promote mental well-being/resilience.     

Characteristics for the Effectiveness of Women’s Self-Help Groups in Bihar

This study examines whether group heterogeneity and group structure and process predict the effectiveness of women’s self-help groups in terms of their financial performance, self-reliance of the group, members’ decision-making ability at the household level, and access to non-financial benefits. Data were collected using an interview schedule from 210 women’s self-help groups in six districts of Bihar and data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. The findings suggest that the group heterogeneity directly predicts the effectiveness of women’s self-help groups and it is fully transmitted through group structure and process to positively predict the effectiveness of the women’s self-help groups. The group structure and process is found to be a full mediator between group heterogeneity and group effectiveness. The predictive accuracy of the model is found to be high. The findings have implications to bring in more diversity in members castes, education, and their reasons for joining women’s self-help groups at the formation stage and variations in members’ skills and expertise at the performing stage of the groups. The members’ awareness on group norms and trust in financial transactions, and leadership styles together with cooperation and cohesion among members, transparency in financial transactions, group attendance, and networking with the bank and the federation foster the effectiveness of women’s self-help groups.     

Determinants of the recovery of financially distressed nonprofits

Financial ratios are traditionally used to predict and diagnose financial vulnerability; this is helpful, but leaves unanswered how the vulnerable nonprofit should prioritize this information in order to survive. Using panel data, this empirical study observes the financial behaviors of distressed nonprofits for 4‐year periods where the first 2 years are financially vulnerable. Two definitions of vulnerability are tested: when liabilities exceed assets (insolvency) and when net assets shrink by more than 25% annually (financial disruption). In determining which nonprofits recover during the final 2 years, we find that the type of vulnerability impacts which financial indicators a nonprofit should target, and that common tactics such as improving profitability may be counterproductive. Finally, we do not find evidence for liabilities of newness or smallness in the statistical analysis.     

EU Accession, Financial Integration, and Contagion Effects: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of CEEC-3 Bond Markets

In this paper, we investigate the conditional correlations between the bond markets in CEEC-3 (i.e., Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary) and Germany from 2000 to 2013 using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model developed by Cappiello et al. (J Financ Econ 4:557–572, 2006). CEEC-3 comprise emerging transition economies that became European Union (EU) members in 2004, while Germany serves as a representative of the EU because it is the largest economy in the eurozone. Based on the presented analytical models, we make four important findings. First, we show that financial integration had already evolved before the adoption of the euro in 2004 in the Czech Republic, while the financial integration process continues in Poland but not in Hungary. Second, the bond markets in both Poland and Hungary decreased their dependence on that in Germany during the global financial crisis period. Third, financial contagion did not occur in the bond markets in CEEC-3 and Germany during the European sovereign debt crisis period. Finally, we can observe asymmetric effects on returns over time when markets fluctuate sharply.     

A post-Keynesian regulatory model of privatization

Many studies of privatization adopt the neo-liberal model which focuses on financial and economic distributional outcomes, and ignores social costs transferred to the state or broader society. We adopt a post-Keynesian point of view by identifying the social outcomes of privatization and the recipients of their effect in the society. We review regulation theory and discuss the effects of regulation on social and financial outcomes. Finally, we introduce a balanced regulatory model to show that privatization can become a process that achieves economic development and realizes broader social objectives.     

Inflation and the misallocation of resources

This paper analyzes the effects of inflation on the resource allocation between the financial sector and the manufacturing sector. We develop a model with heterogeneous workers who can be employed either in the manufacturing sector, which produces a consumption good, or the financial sector, which provides liquidity services. A rise in inflation reduces the demand for labor in the manufacturing sector and increases the demand for financial services. This induces a shift of resources from the manufacturing sector to the financial sector and reduces consumption opportunities. An empirical investigation using 55 countries strongly supports the result that higher inflation increases the relative size of the financial sector.     

Conceptual Model and Map of Financial Exploitation of Older Adults

This article describes the processes and outcomes of three-dimensional concept mapping to conceptualize financial exploitation of older adults. Statements were generated from a literature review and by local and national panels consisting of 16 experts in the field of financial exploitation. These statements were sorted and rated using Concept Systems software, which grouped the statements into clusters and depicted them as a map. Statements were grouped into six clusters, and ranked by the experts as follows in descending severity: (a) theft and scams, (b) financial victimization, (c) financial entitlement, (d) coercion, (e) signs of possible financial exploitation, and (f) money management difficulties. The hierarchical model can be used to identify elder financial exploitation and differentiate it from related but distinct areas of victimization. The severity hierarchy may be used to develop measures that will enable more precise screening for triage of clients into appropriate interventions.