Supply Disruptions,Heterogeneous Beliefs,and Production Efficiencies

Recent years have witnessed the pervasive supply disruptions and their impacts on supply chain performance. In this study, we investigate the optimal procurement design with supply disruptions and heterogeneous beliefs between the buyer and the supplier. We examine the impact of information asymmetry on the supplier's belief, the control right of the backup production, and the verifiability of supply disruption. The belief heterogeneity creates speculative gains and losses because the buyer and the supplier hold different estimates of the disruption probability. We demonstrate that the buyer's incentive to exploit this belief heterogeneity leads to real production inefficiencies in different scenarios. The production efficiency is not necessarily improved with more transparent information. Moreover, a very pessimistic supplier may have no incentive to invest in improving the reliability even if this is costless, and the supplier may produce more when the expected production cost becomes higher. When the buyer sees some value in using the supplier's estimate to update his own belief, we find that the main results hold unless the buyer completely abandons his belief.     

Estimating output mix effectiveness: An applied scenario approach for the Armed Forces

The ability of public sector policy makers to prioritize has a huge impact on the effectiveness of public service provision. Public services can take the form of final outputs demanded by consumers or of intermediate outputs contributing to a process of realizing the higher goals of society. In doing the right things, policy makers choose a mix of intermediate outputs maximizing their preference value for public service outcomes, while managers do things right when responsible for producing outputs efficiently. This distinction enables us to pinpoint important reasons for inefficiencies in the provision of public services. Taking advantage of the method of scenario based planning, a model for measuring effectiveness is developed for situations where traditional methods such as two-stage regressions fail due to long time lags and lack of variation in the variables. Scenarios take the role of outcomes in the modeling of outcome mapping functions, where each scenario represents a set of environmental variables. The model is specified for the provision of defense outcomes, where the lag between changes in input and impacts on outcomes are substantial. From a sample of 12 combat units in the Norwegian Armed Forces, producing different outputs, we find that inefficiencies in output mix can explain most of the changes in overall effectiveness over a four-year period of time.     

Systemic approach to supply chain management through the viable system model and the theory of constraints

In today’s environment, Supply Chain Management (SCM) takes a key role in business strategy. A major challenge is achieving high customer service level under a reasonable operating expense and investment. The traditional approach to SCM, based on local optimisation, is a proven cause of meaningful inefficiencies – e.g. the Bullwhip Effect – that obstruct the throughput. The systemic (holistic) approach, based on global optimisation, has been shown to perform significantly better. Nevertheless, it is not widely expanded, since the implementation of an efficient solution requires a suitable scheme. Under these circumstances, this paper proposes an integrative framework for supply chain collaboration aimed at increasing its efficiency. This is based on the combined application of the Beer’s Viable System Model (VSM) and the Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints (TOC). VSM defines the systemic structure of the supply chain and orchestrates the collaboration, while TOC implements the systemic behaviour – i.e. integrate processes – and define performance measures. To support this proposal, we detail its application to the widely used Beer Game scenario. In addition, we discuss its implementation in real supply chains, highlighting the key points that must be considered.     

Learning from international business affiliates: developing resource-based learning capacity through networks and knowledge acquisition

Resource-based learning capacity (RBLC) is an organization's specific resources – both human and tangible – that can be organized to enhance learning processes. This study develops and tests a model that examines the relationship between the learning efforts of focal firms from their international business affiliates (IBAs) – organizations located outside the focal firm's domestic market with whom the focal firm has a relationship – and the focal firms' RBLC. This learning process refers to the transfer of knowledge from the IBA to the focal firm. Results indicate that while learning effectiveness positively influences the RBLC of the focal firm, learning efficiency has a negative impact on RBLC. The IBA's home country network centrality and the tie strength between the focal organization and the IBA are found to influence learning effectiveness positively. Tie strength also enhances learning efficiency. Finally, the findings indicate that the IBA's home country network centrality enhances the strength of the ties between the focal organization and its IBA.     

Economic Production Lot Sizing with Periodic Costs and Overtime*

Traditional approaches for modeling economic production lot‐sizing problems assume that a single, fixed equipment setup cost is incurred each time a product is run, regardless of the quantity manufactured. This permits multiple days of production from one production setup. In this paper, we extend the model to consider additional fixed charges, such as cleanup or inspection costs, that are associated with each time period's production. This manufacturing cost structure is common in the food, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries, where process equipment must be sanitized between item changeovers and at the end of each day's production. We propose two mathematical problem formulations and optimization algorithms. The models' unique features include regular time production constraints, a fixed charge for each time period's production, and the availability of overtime production capacity. Experimental results indicate the conditions under which our algorithms' performance is superior to traditional approaches. We also test the procedures on a set of lot‐sizing problems facing a national food processor and document their potential economic benefit.     

基于最近距离投影的DEA两阶段效率评价方法研究

数据包络分析是进行效率评价最重要的方法之一。传统的数据包络分析理论主要寻找有效前沿面上的最远距离投影，在极大化无效性指数的同时也面临着效率改进的巨大难度和高额成本。对于具有两阶段内部生产结构的决策单元，本文从考虑最小改进难度的视角出发，提出了最近距离投影的两阶段效率评价方法。该方法首先得到所有强有效决策单元的线性组合，且这些组合均占优于被评价的两阶段决策单元。然后建立了两阶段范围调整效率评价模型，在确定具有最近投影距离的占优组合的同时，得到了两阶段评价效率。最后，本文运用我国32家上市银行的年度数据对所提出方法进行了应用验证。     

TRUST,SOCIAL CAPITAL,AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Many argue that elements of a society's norms, culture, or social capital are central to understanding its development. However, these notions have been difficult to capture in economic models. Here we explore a possible role for “trustworthiness” as corresponding to social capital. Individuals are trustworthy when they perform in accordance with promises, even if this does not maximise their payoffs. The usual focus on incentive structures in motivating behaviour plays no role here. Instead, we emphasise more deep‐seated modes of behaviour and consider trustworthy agents being socialised to act as they do. To model this socialisation, we borrow from a process of preference evolution pioneered by Bisin and Verdier (2001). The model developed endogenously accounts for social capital and explores its role in the process of economic development. It captures in a simple, formal way the interaction between social capital and the economy's productive processes. The results obtained caution against rapid reform and provide an explanation for why late‐developing countries may not easily be able to transplant the modes of production that have proved useful in the West. (JEL: O1, O3, O4, Z1)     

A Nerlovian cost inefficiency two-stage DEA model for modeling banks’ production process: Evidence from the Turkish banking system

By developing a two-stage model the paper examines the cost inefficiency levels of Turkish banks during the period from 2007 to 2016. Using the notion of Koopmans input efficiency we deconstruct the estimated Nerlovian cost inefficiency to the sum of slack-based allocative and technical inefficiency levels. Alongside the traditional inputs, intermediates and outputs used to model banks’ performance measure we additionally use their labor education quality factor as a non-discretionary input. This allows us to model how human capital factors affect a bank's revenue generation stage. Our findings suggest that cost inefficiency levels are driven mainly by a bank's ability to control its allocative inefficiency levels. The empirical evidence also shows that foreign banks perform better, suggesting that bank ownership structures matter when measuring cost performance. Finally, it is evident that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had a negative effect on banks’ ability to minimize their cost inefficiency levels. However, the post-crisis findings demonstrate that Turkish banks have started to recover from its negative effects, mainly by improving their allocative performance.     

透明度与市场效率——基于信息不对称的适应性学习研究

通过拓展Pouget模型,考察了当所有投资者采用适应性学习(有限理性)规则更新信念时,订单信息的透明度增加如何影响市场的价格发现效率和福利配置效率.结果表明,透明度增加后,市场效率大幅降低,价格发现和福利配置都难以收敛到理性预期均衡.进一步剖析投资者的策略选择可以发现,透明度增加后,拥有信息优势的知情者倾向于提交对自己更加有利的订单,而放弃均衡的交易策略;非知情者为了规避由此带来的逆向选择风险,也会放弃均衡策略而倾向于提交更加保守的订单,最终导致市场效率大幅下降.     

The Brazilian Multinationals' Approaches to Innovation

Brazilian multinationals, born in a country where the environment is non-conducive to the scientific breakthrough type of innovation so stimulated in other countries, are increasingly expanding in international markets, where innovativeness is an intrinsic component of competitiveness. Aiming to study Brazilian multinationals' approaches to innovation, a new analytical framework was developed assuming that the internationalization process relies on the firm's innovative capability. In turn, innovative capabilities are derived from core competences and competence formation at firm level is influenced by the characteristics of the national environment. A survey involving 61 Brazilian multinationals led to the identification of four approaches to innovation, the competences that enable each one of them and the country-of-origin effects over competence development. That led to the explanation of why firms that do not show the expected strength in R&D, but are able to combine skillfully their organizational competences, manage to develop innovative capabilities which allow them to internationalize successfully. The overall outcome suggests that the dynamic relationships among institutions – competences – innovation – internationalization are setting new grounds for the international expansion of Brazilian firms.     

Total production control

The new requirements for enterprise flexibility, quality improvement, costs and throughput limes reduction cannot be achieved by using traditional approaches. While US and European industry developed the grand CIM, FMS, CAD/CAM and MRP II projects, Japan introduced just-in-time and lean production, not to demonstrate the possibilities of the new technology but to expose operational inefficiencies and waste in the manufacturing process. The main CIM effort was in the flexibility and productivity improvement, bin its implementation stressed above all the technical aspects of the factory integration and the most flexible production factor, people, remained in the background. The new technology must be implemented into the organizational framework that uses and develops the skills, knowledge and creativity of the human resources. People in the production process need a new kind of decision support in the rapidly changing business environment. A new concept, total production control (TPC), that is a reaction to the present manufacturing problems will be presented. TPC integrates many methods and tools for production system analysis and improvement, production system design and production planning and control. This concept emphasizes a preventive aspect of the problem solution in the production process and supports a production manager at the three time views: past (archive and statistical database); present (shopfloor data capture and production progress monitoring); and future (simulation and modelling tools).     

Using data envelopment analysis for the assessment of technical efficiency of units with different specialisations: An application to agriculture

In this paper we consider the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the assessment of efficiency of units whose output profiles exhibit specialisation. An example of this is found in agriculture where a large number of different crops may be produced in a particular region, but only a few farms actually produce each particular crop. Because of the large number of outputs, the use of conventional DEA models in such applications results in a poor efficiency discrimination. We overcome this problem by specifying production trade-offs between different outputs, relying on the methodology of Podinovski (J Oper Res Soc 2004;55:1311–22). The main idea of our approach is to relate various outputs to the production of the main output. We illustrate this methodology by an application of DEA involving agricultural farms in different regions of Turkey. An integral part of this application is the elicitation of expert judgements in order to formulate the required production trade-offs. Their use in DEA models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency discrimination. The proposed methodology should also be of interest to other applications of DEA where units may exhibit specialization, such as applications involving hospitals or bank branches.     

环境规制下的投入产出效率及规制成本研究

现实的生产活动往往同时具有期望和非期望(主要是环境污染物)两种产出.将环境因素纳入到具体的投入产出分析框架,利用环境生产技术建立一组效率评价模型和成本测算模型,并依据不同的效率导向从环境效率、经济效率、综合效率和两阶段效率等多个角度实证研究2001年～2005年中国28个省、自治区、直辖市的投入产出水平和不同环境规制下的成本问题.研究结果表明,中国各地区总体的环境效率和经济效率普遍偏低,差异也较大,经济效率与环境效率的变动并不具有完全的一致性,反映环境污染和经济发展水平的综合效率与环境效率变化趋势基本一致,部分省、自治区、直辖市在期望产出最优后仍有进一步削减非期望产出的可能,严格环境规制下的成本明显高于一般环境规制下的成本,且两者都具有明显的上升趋势.     

Disentangling the European airlines efficiency puzzle: A network data envelopment analysis approach

In recent years the European airline industry has undergone critical restructuring. It has evolved from a highly regulated market predominantly operated by national airlines to a dynamic, liberalized industry where airline firms compete freely on prices, routes, and frequencies. Although several studies have analyzed performance issues for European airlines using a variety of efficiency measurement methods, virtually none of them has considered two-stage alternatives – not only in this particular European context but in the airline industry in general. We extend the aims of previous contributions by considering a network Data Envelopment Analysis (network DEA) approach which comprises two sub-technologies that can share part of the inputs. Results show that, in general, most of the inefficiencies are generated in the first stage of the analysis. However, when considering different types of carriers several differences emerge – most of the low-cost carriers’ inefficiencies are confined to the first stage. Results also show a dynamic component, since performance differed across types of airlines during the decade 2000–2010.     

How do Greek banking institutions react after significant events?—A DEA approach

The efficiency of Greek commercial banks is considered through the period 1995–2003 using the data envelopment analysis technique. Two approaches are used to measure efficiency: one using financial ratios as outputs only and the other viewing banks as credit generation and transaction institutions. The empirical results are used to examine the reaction of banking institutions after significant events such as M&As, privatizations and the crisis of the Athens Stock Exchange in 1999. In most cases performance deteriorates for the next 1 to 2 years, while increases thereafter, forming specific patterns of efficiency. In the last part we introduce an index to measure the management's efficiency through a process of change. The results suggest that the Greek banking sector operated efficiently on average during the destabilization periods. The contribution of the article is that it comprises the first study which examines empirically the performance behavior of banking institutions within the scope of change management theory.     

The Newsvendor Problem and Price‐Only Contract When Bankruptcy Costs Exist

We study a supply chain of a supplier selling via a wholesale price contract to a financially constrained retailer who faces stochastic demand. The retailer might need to borrow money from a bank to execute his order. The bank offers a fairly priced loan for relevant risks. Failure of loan repayment leads to a costly bankruptcy (fixed administrative costs, costs proportional to sales, and a depressed collateral value). We identify the retailer's optimal order quantity as a function of the wholesale price and his total wealth (working capital and collateral). The analysis of the supplier's optimal wholesale price problem as a Stackelberg game, with the supplier the leader and the retailer the follower, leads to unique equilibrium solutions in wholesale price and order quantity, with the equilibrium order quantity smaller than the traditional newsvendor one. Furthermore, in the presence of the retailer's bankruptcy risks, increases in the retailer's wealth lead to increased supplier's wholesale prices, but without the retailer's bankruptcy risks the supplier's wholesale prices stay the same or decrease in retailer's wealth.     

DEA target setting approach within the cross efficiency framework

Target setting is an important reason that data envelopment analysis (DEA) is widely applied to analyze efficiency. However, the efficiency overestimation of traditional DEA may affect the rationality of target setting, and even may make this method invalid in target setting. This paper innovatively proposes the definition of cross efficient, and develops two new target setting approaches for individual decision-making unit (DMU) and global optimization to improve the cross efficiency of DMUs in different decision-making situations. Then the influence of decision maker's preference on the improvement direction is discussed, and then these approaches are further extended. This paper solves the limitations of traditional DEA in target setting, and provides different directions to improve cross efficiency for meeting decision makers’ needs. Finally, two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of these approaches.     

An integrated nurse staffing and scheduling analysis for longer-term nursing staff allocation problems

The efficient and effective management of nursing personnel is of critical importance in a hospital's environment comprising a vast share of the operational costs. The adopted nurse workforce practices and policies highly affect the nurses' working conditions and the provided quality of care. Policy decisions on the staffing level have an impact on the outcome of the scheduling level and vice versa. Isolated reasoning typically leads to suboptimal decisions often resulting in ineffective outcomes of care. In order to overcome these inefficiencies, we propose in this paper a new integrative nurse staffing and shift scheduling approach. We test and assess the benefits of our approach in a reallife environment. Moreover, we examine the impact of several personnel policies on the staffing decision.     

基于两阶段交叉效率模型的中国商业银行效率评价

为了更好的评价我国商业银行的效率,在传统两阶段DEA模型中引入交叉效率,并对两阶段生产系统的内部结构进行优化,构建了考虑共享投入和非期望产出的两阶段交叉效率模型。最后结合中国16家商业银行2006-2015年的年度报表,分别应用传统的两阶段DEA模型和新模型评价样本银行的效率。结果表明：新模型比传统模型更客观、区分力更强,具有更强的稳定性,更适合用于评价我国商业银行的效率。     

随机环境下的多投入多产出生产前沿面估计

传统的DEA模型假设观测样本的投入产出都是确定型数据, 这使得DEA在实际应用中受到限制, 本文提出的基于拟似然估计的多投入多产出随机非参数包络数据 (PLE-StoNED) 方法拓展了这个假设, 能够估计随机环境下的生产前沿面.本文证明, 生产可能集假设条件下的前沿面可以用一个有凹凸性和单调性限制的函数来表示.相较之前的StoNED方法, 本文提出的方法可以估计随机环境下多投入多产出决策单元 (DMU) 的前沿面.通过Monte Carlo实验, 多投入多产出PLE-StoNED方法的有效性得到验证, 它可纠正DEA等传统方法产生的偏误.最后, 实证研究部分运用这一新提出的方法估计了中国大陆商业银行的生产前沿面和效率.本文提出的方法弥补了DEA缺乏统计性的不足, 可为决策者在随机环境下对多投入多产出决策单元进行生产力和效率评估提供决策参考.