The prediction of completed fertility

There has been considerable interest in the relation between familysize desires and completed fertility. Longitudinal data from the Princeton Fertility Study provide a unique opportunity to compare the number of children desired after the birth of a second child to the size of completed families. The average number of children desired by women after the birth of their second child predicts very well the average size of their completed families. The average family size desired at the first interview and average estimated completed family size some eight years later are identical for the total sample, and vary hardly at all within religious or education subgroups. One-third of the variance in the completed fertility of couples is "explained" by wife's family-size desires and the proportion of explained variance increases to two-fifths when we include the husband's first interview desires and the interval between marriage and second birth. Yet in spite of the relatively high correlation between desires and achievement, only 41 percent of these women achieved exactly the number of children they desired at the first interview, while 14 percent had two children more or fewer than originally desired. Nevertheless, data on contraceptive efficiency indicate that desires after the birth of the second child constitute meaningful goals in terms of which the respondents regulate their subsequent behavior-efficacy of contraceptive practice shows substantial improvement after the desired number has been achieved.     

Preference for Sons,Family Size,and Sex Ratio: An Empirical Study in Korea

This study investigates the effects of son preference on sex ratio and fertility at the family level, utilizing World Fertility Survey data for Korea, whose population is known to have a strong preference for sons and a fairly high level of contraceptive use. The sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) of siblings in small families is considerably higher than in large families. The sex ratio of last-born children in families of any size is markedly higher than that of the previous children. The sex distribution of children for a given family size, if less than five, deviates significantly from the Bernoulli sequence. The observed frequency of all-girl families is especially small in comparison with the expected value. The sex of the last child strongly influences couples' decision making regarding additional births in all steps of family building except for bearing a second child. In increasing their families to moderate size, parents appear to take into consideration the sex distribution of all earlier births.     

Skewed Sex Ratios in India: “Physician, Heal Thyself”

Sex selection, a gender discrimination of the worst kind, is highly prevalent across all strata of Indian society. Physicians have a crucial role in this practice and implementation of the Indian Government’s Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques Act in 1996 to prevent the misuse of ultrasound techniques for the purpose of prenatal sex determination. Little is known about family preferences, let alone preferences among families of physicians. We investigated the sex ratios in 946 nuclear families with 1,624 children, for which either one or both parents were physicians. The overall child sex ratio was more skewed than the national average of 914. The conditional sex ratios decreased with increasing number of previous female births, and a previous birth of a daughter in the family was associated with a 38 % reduced likelihood of a subsequent female birth. The heavily skewed sex ratios in the families of physicians are indicative of a deeply rooted social malady that could pose a critical challenge in correcting the sex ratios in India.     

Family size and child mental disorders in Bahia,Brazil

The relationship between family size and child mental disorders was assessed through a prevalence study conducted in an urban neighborhood of Salvador, Brazil. From a representative sample of 828 children aged between 5 and 14 years, 23.3% were diagnosed as exhibiting varying degrees of mental disorders. Diagnoses were based on psychiatric interviews, following screening using the QMPI (a Portuguese-language screening questionnaire). Results supported the hypotheses that: (1) children from smaller families would exhibit higher prevalence of mental disorders than those from larger families; and (2) prevalence of neurotic and psychosomatic disorders would be lower for children from larger families than from smaller ones. Significant associations were also found between family size and diagnosis and severity of child mental disorders. Controlled analyses indicated that these relationships were not confounded by age or sex of the child, family social class, or family type.     

The mixed effects of income upon successive births may explain the convergence phenomenon

Summary This paper finds that an increment of income has a more positive (less negative) effect on the probability of a family having another child when it consists of relatively few children than of relatively many children. That is, within a group of people whose income is increased, the increase may be expected to influence the average family with no children or one child to increase family size, and to influence the average family that would otherwise have many children to have fewer. To put it another way, increased income reduces the variance of family size across families. This provides an explanation for the 'convergence' of American families to two to four children. The basis for these conclusions is a cross-sectional analysis of white women in the U.S. Census of 1960.     

Boys or girls? Parents' preferences and sex control

Recent evidence from the U.S. and from other selected countries is examined on parent sex preferences for their children and how strongly these are held. This involves the significance of these preferences, the social and economic conditions that foster different types of preferences, and how different individuals and societies deal with them. The traditional preference for boys appears to remain nearly universal, which runs contrary to the ideal of "every child a wanted child," and also presents an obstacle to desired declines in fertility in developing countries where sons are still perceived as needed for economic and emotional security. This tendency has been turned around in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the U.S., where small families are now the ideal. 3 basic approaches to the scientific selection of sex-specific sperm for preselection, the timing of sexual intercourse, the separation of male- and female-bearing sperm followed by artificial insemination, and selective abortion after fetal sex determination indicate that an effective and practical method of sex control is still further off than predicted.     

儿童照料与二孩生育意愿 ——来自上海的证据

本文围绕一项针对上海市育龄女性的生育意愿调查,分别使用二分和有序Logit方法分析儿童照顾对上海市育龄女性的二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现当育龄女性能够从家庭内和社会中获得更多孩子照料的时间支持时,她们有更高的二孩生育意愿,也会伴有更明确的二孩生育规划;双独家庭能够从父辈获得更多的经济、时间上的帮助,因此他们要比单独家庭和双非家庭更愿意再生一个孩子;居住于上海市城区的女性从某种程度上更易获得孩子的照料资源,有更多的优质教育资源可供选择,因此她们的二孩生育意愿高于居住于郊区的女性。此外,本文通过是否采用了避孕措施对二孩生育的意愿程度做了进一步区分,结果发现当第一个孩子主要是由孩子父母承担照料工作的时候,女性存在二孩生育意愿的程度是最低的,祖辈照料对二孩生育意愿程度的积极影响也明显低于社会性照料,此现象在上海市户籍的女性中体现尤为明显。最后为纠正自选择偏差问题,本文使用倾向值匹配方法(PSM)进一步验证了与首孩性别相比,首孩的抚养成本与接受照料情况显然对二孩生育意愿的影响程度更大。因此,本文认为加大公共托育服务的供给、为育龄女性提供高质量的0-3岁婴幼儿社会照料支持是提高二孩生育意愿的最有效政策。     

Male sterilization as a contraceptive method in Canada an empirical study

Abstract In 1851-61, the crude birth rate in Canada was 45. In 1972, it was approximately 16. Not only have birth rates decreased but the average family size has declined from five or six children per family at the turn of the century to two or three children in the 1970'S. In addition, women are completing their childbearing at an earlier age. 50 years ago, it was not uncommon for a woman to have a child in her late thirties or early forties. To-day, this is a relatively rare event. In fact, it is estimated that approximately 80% of all families have the number of children desired before the woman is 30 years of age. This new demographic pattern creates an important and crucial situation for Canadian couples. At age 30, with all the desired children and 15 more years of potential childbearing ahead of them, what can they do to prevent the occurrence of additional pregnancies?     

Sex preferences for children in Ghana: the influence of educational attainment

Education influences aspects of demographic behaviour and outcomes including a child sex preference. Sex preferences of children have been studied in different societies because of its associated social and demographic implications. Using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we examined the association between educational attainment and sex preferences of children. Findings from the study indicated that there is preference for sons (26.1%) compared to daughters (17.4%). At higher levels of education, there is a higher likelihood for no preference for a sex of a child. Among the characteristics of respondents that influenced sex preferences are: gender, lineage, religion, occupation and desired family size. Acquisition of knowledge through education to some extent alter fertility preferences and hence the need to motivate individuals to attain some level of education.     

从"五普"地市数据看生育政策对出生性别比和婴幼儿死亡率性别比的影响

以"五普"数据为基础,分析全国"地市"的出生性别比、婴儿死亡率性别比与生育政策的关系.本文的分析表明实行"第1个孩子为女孩,间隔几年允许生第2个孩子"生育政策的人口比例越高的地区,出生性别比和婴儿死亡性别比失常越严重;实行较为宽松生育政策的地区比较接近正常.实行较为宽松的生育政策有利于解决目前出生性别比严重失常和女婴死亡严重偏高的问题.     

An Econometric Investigation of Easterlin's ‘Synthesis Framework’: The Philippines and the United States

In this paper we estimate a fertility model based on Easterlin's synthesis framework. The model assumes that not all couples are able to achieve their desired number of living children because of supply constraints and that, for other couples, the number of living children may exceed desired fertility, depending upon child mortality, the level of fertility in the absence of control, and the degree of contraceptive regulation practised. Estimates of the model for samples of women with completed fertility taken from the Philippines (1973) and the United States (1965) indicated that a higher proportion of Filipino women than women in the U.S. were unable to achieve desired fertility because of supply constraints, that levels of fertility control of Filipino women not supply-constrained were lower, and that excess fertility of Filipino women was much higher. Demand-for-children equations based on the constraints model were quite different from those not taking into account the possibility that some women were supply-constrained, or that some women may have had more children than desired.     

The effects of the child support provisions of the Family Support Act of 1988 on child well-being

The provisions for child support reform in the Family Support Act of 1988 are likely to have a large impact upon the well-being of children eligible for child support, a group expected to include half of the children in the country. The reform is expected to increase child support payments and thereby reduce the economic insecurity and poverty of children who live apart from a parent. It is also expected to lead to increased contact between noncustodial parents and their children, which may also enhance well-being. This paper reviews the child support system in the United States, summarizes the empirical research that has been carried out on children from disrupted families, analyzes the impact that the Family Support Act may have on child well-being, and discusses the key variables that should be measured as well as the most promising sources of data to evaluate child support reform.Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the sponsoring institutions.     

一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女生育意愿比较

基于江苏苏南某农村790户家庭的抽样调查数据,比较一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女的生育意愿,并运用回归模型对影响两类家庭育龄妇女生育意愿的因素进行研究。结果显示,两类家庭育龄妇女的意愿生育数量、意愿生育性别和意愿生育间隔没有显著差异,仅在对"女性生育的最大年龄"的认识上二孩妇女明显低于一孩妇女。但两类家庭育龄妇女在生育意愿的影响因素上存在着较大的差异。     

Association of educational level and child sex ratio in rural and urban India

Utilizing data from the Census of India, this study compared child sex ratio in rural and urban regions of India and analyzed whether the child sex ratio was associated with mother’s education level. The child sex ratios in the rural and urban regions throughout India were analyzed using the two-sample and paired Student’s t-test. Further, the Chi-square test for trend in binomial proportions was used to assess the association between child sex ratios and mother’s education levels in rural and urban areas. Analysis of the data showed that there was a significant difference between the child sex ratios in rural areas versus urban areas. In addition, the Chi-square test for trend showed that there was a significant association of the child sex ratio and the educational levels of their mothers. This trend occurred in both rural and urban areas.     

Child support and the postdivorce economic well-being of mothers, fathers, and children

This article provides national estimates of the current and potential impact of private child support transfers on the economic well-being of custodial and noncustodial families following marital dissolution. Mothers and children fare dramatically worse than fathers after marital dissolution; these differences, however, would be much more pronounced in the absence of private child support. Simulations of four existing child support guidelines show that substantial increases in economic well-being among mother-custody families are possible within the structure of the existing child support system, with minimal impact on poverty among nonresident fathers. Under all of these guidelines, however, custodial-mother families would continue to fare substantially worse than nonresident fathers.     

The Characteristics of Children’s Subjective Well-Being

Despite the increased interest in recent decades in the study of children’s subjective well-being (SWB), much too little is known about the factors that contribute to their SWB, especially with regards to socio-demographic characteristics. In addition, only handful of studies has made a comparison between countries and was based on large samples. The present study is a first of its kind. Utilizing the International Study of Children’s Well-Being first wave data set with questionnaires from over 34,500 children from 14 different countries to explore the characteristics of children’s SWB and the relations between an array of socio-demographic variables and children’s SWB. SWB was measured using three scales—overall life satisfaction, overall satisfaction in specific domains and overall SWB that was measured using agreement items. The socio-demographic variables were composed of demographic characteristics (e.g. gender and age), self-reported socio-economic items and the children’s country of residence. Findings show that children’s SWB in all countries is relatively high, although some variation can be found between the three SWB scales. Differences were found between the three measurements of SWB in regard to the explained variance, nevertheless the socio-demographic characteristics explain relatively low amount of the variance in SWB (10.9–20.2 %). The demographic variables have the lowest contribution, followed by the socio-economic items, while countries have the highest contribution. Thus one of our main conclusions is that the answer for understanding children’s SWB does not lay in the socio-demographic characteristics. The implications of these findings for further research of children’s SWB are discussed.     

Survey on sex ratio of the children from one-child families in Shihezi in the Xinjiang Uigur autonomous region]

A survey of 1 child families in the Shihezi area showed a higher ratio of boys, 920 boys vs. 822 girls (1.12:1.00). There was also a higher ratio of boys among children born between 1975-1980, but the proportion of girls was higher among children born before 1974. The ratio of boys was higher among firstborn children born between 1976-1980 (1.086:1.00), while the sex ratio was 1.00 among 2nd born children born between 1976-1980. School children between age 6-18 showed 6266 boys and 6218 girls (1.01:1.00). The sex ratio of the total population in the Shihezi area was 1.05:1:00; this coincides with our national ratio of 1.08:1.00 (1953 census) and the world sex ratio of 1.0035:1.00 in 1975. The universal occurrence of more males than females is probably a result of physiological factors. It is actually beneficial to the country to have a slightly higher ratio of males because many jobs are more suitable for men because of their physical condition and the accidental death rate is also higher for men. The slightly higher percentage of boys among single child families was not statistically significant (P0.05).     

Neighborhood Characteristics,Parenting, and Children’s Safety

Recent studies highlight the importance of neighborhood context for child and family well-being. Yet challenges to research on neighborhood effects remain; research on young children is sparse, as is research on neighborhood effects on parenting. Measurement also continues to challenge researchers, particularly in devising non-invasive means of gauging neighborhood characteristics. The present study seeks to address these issues by using data from a newly developed observational measure of neighborhood characteristics to examine parent reports of the safety of neighborhood children in the home and self-reports of parenting. The results showed that neighborhood characteristics accounted for 23% of the variance in parent perceptions of children's safety in the home, with neighborhood physical appearance strongly predicting children's safety. Neighborhood effects on self-reported parenting were more modest, accounting for just 6% of the variance in parents' reports of nurturing interactions with their children; vigilance for the safety of the neighborhood was a significant predictor. The study has implications for observational measurement of neighborhood effects and for policy and program practices to improve child and family well-being through neighborhood change.     

Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons

Sonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old-age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.     

High Sex Ratios at Birth in the Caucasus: Modern Technology to Satisfy Old Desires

During the 1990s, the sex ratio at birth increased considerably and simultaneously in the three independent Caucasian countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. At the end of the first decade of the twenty‐first century, levels remain abnormally high in Armenia and Azerbaijan (above 114 male births per 100 female births) and show erratic trends in Georgia. Analyzing data from demographic surveys carried out around 2005, we confirm the persistence of high sex ratios in these three countries and document significant differences in fertility intentions and behavior according to the sex of the previous child or children that constitute evidence of the practice of sex‐selective abortion. These countries combine societal features and medical systems that make this phenomenon possible: son preference in a context of low fertility and the possibility of prenatal sex selection given easy access to ultrasound screening and induced abortion. Why high sex ratios are observed only in these three countries of the sub‐region remains, however, an open question.