THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF MILITARY SERVICE: EVIDENCE FROM THE VIETNAM DRAFT

There is a strong cross-sectional association between military service and adverse health. However, veterans differ very significantly in their observable characteristics from nonveterans, suggesting that some of the association between military service and adverse health may be due to omitted variables bias. To address this problem, we use draft eligibility as an instrument for military service. Despite a very strong first-stage relationship between draft eligibility and military service, the two-stage least squares estimates of the difference in health between veterans and nonveterans are statistically insignificant and too imprecise to preclude the differences in health found in the cross-sectional regressions. ( JEL H56, I12, I18)     

ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING,THE EDUCATIONAL INCOME GAP,AND OVERALL INCOME INEQUALITY

An important consequence of the economic structure transformations of recent decades is increased income inequality. While an extensive literature has explored the relationship between economic restructuring and inequality, the unique contribution of this article is that it develops and tests a model that explores the mechanisms by which this process occurs. Specifically, the intervening role of the income gap between the well-educated and those with lower levels of education (the educational income gap) and other moderating factors are explored. The 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data from the 2000 Census of Population and Housing was used in the analysis. The data provided strong support for the model. It was found that economic structure and the moderating variables were strongly related to the educational income gap, which in turn was strongly related to overall income inequality. Generally, both the educational income gap and overall income inequality were greater in geographic areas with higher proportions of the labor force employed in services, and both were lower where greater proportions of the labor force were employed in goods-producing industries.     

TIME PREFERENCE AND THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF WEALTH AND INCOME

This paper examines the connection between time preference heterogeneity and economic inequality in a deterministic environment. Specifically, we extend the standard neoclassical growth model to allow for (1) heterogeneity in consumers' discount rates, (2) direct preferences for wealth, and (3) human capital formation. The second feature prevents the wealth distribution from collapsing into a degenerate distribution. The third feature generates a strong positive correlation between earnings and capital income across consumers. A calibrated version of the model is able to generate patterns of wealth and income inequality that are very similar to those observed in the United States. (JEL D31, E21, O15)     

INFORMATION WARFARE AND THE FUTURE OF THE SPY

This article examines the impact of the new ICTs on the collection of covert intelligence and covert political actions undertaken by national intelligence agencies. It is argued that there exist two distinct doctrines in the literatures of intelligence and information warfare concerning the future relative importance of information from human sources ('agents') and technical methods (signal interception, overhead imagery and the emerging field of clandestine penetration of networked information systems). The arguments in favour of human and technical methods are examined in the context of information warfare techniques and technologies, as are covert action methods such as disinformation, disruptive action and 'cyber-sabotage'. Certain civil liberties implications of ICT-based strong encryption are also examined. The article concludes that what is required is a greater emphasis on integrating human and technical methods into a unified whole, especially where human methods can provide opportunities which can be further exploited by technical methods.     

POSTMODERNISM, POSTINDUSTRIALISM, AND THE FUTURE

In order to describe the main features of future American society, the main changes already occurring are discussed, a theory is formulated that explains these changes, and this theory is applied to the future. Three well-known theories are used as a starting point: Habermas's theory of systems, his theory of lifeworlds, and general conflict theory. To account for a variety of systems, a theory of the "organizing" process is proposed. To explain the trans-formation of lifeworlds, a simplified theory of the "communicative" process is outlined. To gain insight into cultural change, the theory of "oppositional" process is presented. The main conclusions are that we are witnessing a shift from "system" to "lifeworld" and that both postindustrial structures and postmodern culture contribute to and are symptoms of this shift. Moreover, future American societies, shaped by this shift, will have many properties of the preindustrial gemeinschafts.     

U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND THE DOLLAR

This paper examines the connection between U.S. military expenditure and the dollar-mark real exchange rate. Quarterly data for the period 1951.1–1986.3 are used to show that there exists a significant relationship linking real exchange rate, real military spending, and real GNP. The conclusion is based on evidence that these three variables are cointegrated.     

国内企业艺术品收藏优缺及未来走向

近几年,国内越来越多的企业和机构开始介入艺术品收藏和投资领域,机构收藏对国内艺术品市场甚至艺术生态的影响已经显现,不少业内人士均表示,由“散户市”走向“机构市”是国内艺术品市场未来的趋势,也是市场正规化、专业化的表现。     

INCOME SMOOTHING AND SELF-CONTROL: THE CASE OF SCHOOLTEACHERS

Approximately one-half of California's Unified School Districts give teachers a choice of receiving their annual salaries in 10 or 12 monthly payments. Intertemporal utility maximization à la Irving Fisher suggests that they should choose 10 payments and earn interest on their savings. But about 50% of the teachers choose 12 installments, even though when summed over a reasonable period the forgone interest can be considerable. This behavior can be explained by the cost of exercising self-control and by Laibson's model of hyperbolic discounting. A survey of teachers supports this interpretation. (JEL D91 , D12 )     

ADOLESCENT WORK AND BOYS' AND GIRLS' ORIENTATIONS TO THE FUTURE

This study compares adolescent boys' and girls' aspirations and plans concerning achievement, family, and other adult life spheres, and examines the effects of adolescent work experience on these future orientations. The data were obtained from 1001 students, chosen randomly from a list of enrolled ninth graders in a large Midwestern city. Girls were not found to have lower achievement orientations than boys. Examination of the interrelations of achievement and family plans suggests that boys see their future educational, work, and family roles as more closely integrated than do girls. Just as work and family roles are mutually supportive for adult men but in conflict for adult women, so too do employed adolescent boys appear to be developing traditional family orientations, while employed girls, especially those much exposed to formal work, expect less involvement in marriage and family life. The analyses indicate that paid work is traditionalizing for boys, promoting optimism about, and commitment to, numerous adult life domains; but for girls, formal work lessens interest in traditional female gender roles.     

CONSPICUOUS SPENDING AND THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL GROUPS

Using South African household expenditure data, we analyze how the spending of a household on visible goods, such as jewelry and clothes, depends on the distribution of income within its social group. We find that this spending is positively correlated with the share of peers who possess a similar income level to the household, what we dub the “local income share.” Moreover, we find that the spending of a household on visible goods is positively correlated with the average income of peers that are poorer than this household. We interpret this as evidence for cascade effects through which income changes among the poorest in the social group can trigger adjustments in the visible spending patterns of the wealthy. In line with previous research (Charles et al. 2009), we also find that visible spending of a household is negatively correlated with the average income of its social group. We present a simple model of status competition based on Hopkins and Kornienko (2004) that synthesizes these effects and can account for our results. (JEL D12, D31, O12)     

NEW EVIDENCE ON INCOME AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

Time series and cross-country empirical results suggest that cash holding as a proportion of income rises, or equivalently that velocity falls, as income increases. Numerous cross sectional findings at many points in time, in several countries conclude oppositely. It is argued here that the former findings suffer from omitted variable bias by ignoring sociodemographic variables affecting the demand for cash balances. When one incorporates such demand shifters into the analysis the time series and cross-country findings are seen as consistent with the critically reexamined cross sectional result that velocity increases with income.     

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND THE SUBSTITUTABILITY BETWEEN PRIVATE AND GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION: THE ROLE OF MILITARY AND NON-MILITARY SPENDING

Using data from 66 economies, we examine (i) the substitutability between private consumption and military and non-military government spending, and (ii) the severity of liquidity constraints. Although the estimated substitutability parameters are fragile, private consumption and non-military government spending are shown to be generally substitutes, whereas private consumption and military spending are better described as complements. The fraction of income that accrues to liquidity constrained households is typically positive, and the severity of liquidity constraints (which is robust and precisely estimated) is shown to be negatively related to saving rates, and positively related to the variability of transitory income. (JEL E62, E21)     

TECHNOLOGY AND THE FUTURE OF THE UNIVERSITY: A SOBER VIEW

Technology has had considerable impact on education and the university, but the Internet - today's newest technology - will not lead to the death of the university. While there is clearly a role for virtual education over the Internet, the conventional university will survive since students are well served by a real, physical, educational experience.