On the experience of projecting the family composition of the population of the USSR

The joint efforts in the USSR by the Central Planning Commission and the State Statistical Commission to develop projections of family characteristics of the Soviet population are described. The projections, based on official data for the rural and urban populations in 1987, are for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006.     

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the nile

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the Nile is treated as a decision problem with squared error loss, It is shown that the minimum risk scale equivariant estimator dominates the incomplete sufficient unbiased estimators considered by Iwase and Seto, Sharper bounds for the equivariant estimator are derived which may be used to obtain the values of the same from the sample with sufficient accuracy.     

Evaluating the power of the mann-whitney test using the bootstrap method

In this paper we evaluate the power of the Mann-Whitney test in the shift model G(x) = F (x+θ) for all x , where the distribution of G is obtained by shifting F by an amount of θ.

The bootstrap method was used to evaluate the power of the Mann-Whitney test . A comparison among the bootstrap power , the asymptotic power of the Mann-Whitney test and the t-test power proved that the bootstrap is a better technique , because , it does not require the assumption of normality.     

On the Computation of the Distribution for the Analysis of Means

Abstract

We discuss the accuracy of the computation and present a fortran program to compute the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the analysis of means (ANOM).     

On the estimation of the parameters of the von mises distribution

The usual maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the von Mises distribution are shown to perform badly in small samples. In view of this and the fact that these estimators require a large amount of computation, alternative, simpler estimators are proposed. It is shown that these estimators are at least comparable to the traditional estimators and are, in many cases, superior to them. We also apply the procedure of jackknifing to the maximum likelihood estimator of the concentration parameter of the von Mises distribution and compare the properties of the jackknifed estimator with the other estimators considered in this paper.     

On the robustness of the power function of the one-sample test for the negative exponential distribution

The robustness of the power function of the standard one-sample parametric test for the mean of the negative exponential distribution is examined. The main form of departure from the exponential assumption is a mixture of negative exponential components although an alternative Gamma distribution is also examined. It is found that the test is sensitive to these departures although the effect of mixtures with short tails is less dramatic than those with long tails.     

Demographic policy in the light of the resolutions of the Twenty-sixth Congress of the Communist Party

The USSR is moving from extensive to intensive type of population reproduction, not because of any governmental measures but as a reaction to objective circumstances. At present there is a reduction in the population cohort of working age. This has an adverse effect on production. And the number of the elderly is increasing; we must involve them more in the production process, in monitoring the service sphere, for instance. The infant mortality rate has declined sharply in the USSR, especially since World War II. The birthrate has also dropped, but it is still higher than in the US, France, or West Germany. Some authorities think that this (the ZPG) is a good idea, but this author thinks it is a bad idea, meaning a drop in society's productive forces. We need an active demographic policy, meaning one which ensures optimal reproduction of the population with an improvement in its health, culture, and living standard. The policy must be differentiated, as conditions vary from one part of the country to another. An example is the 1981 decree on assistance to families with children which provides for payments of 35-50 rubles/month to mothers who must stay home to look after children. The number of children per family to ensure reproduction must be 2.6 on the average. In the Central Asian republics family sizes of 4-5 children are anticipated, but in the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Baltic republics the anticipated size of families is rather low. Measures must be taken to alter this by providing assistance to families with children.     

西部开发:政策涵义与发展体系构建问题研究

中国经济能否保持稳定、持续的长波增长 ,一个关键因素是能否在比较短的时间内解决好中国西部地区的发展问题。如果说沿海和中部地区的问题更多的是如何解决好与国际规则接轨以及从数量型经济增长转变为集约型经济增长 ,那么西部地区则同时面临着生存、改善、提高和进步的一系列问题。如果不能找到西部地区发展的特有模式 ,而简单地套用发达国家或东部地区曾经使用过的发展模式 ,可能导致的后果将不是开发西部 ,而是破坏西部 ,从而进一步扩大西部与东、中部地区的差距。中国西部的落后不是哪个单一要素的短缺 ,而是体现为整个系统的低效——…     

Transforming the exponential by minimizing the sum of the absolute differences

This work presents an optimal value to be used in the power transformation to transform the exponential to normality for statistical process control (SPC) applications. The optimal value is found by minimizing the sum of absolute differences between two distinct cumulative probability functions. Based on this criterion, a numerical search yields a proposed value of 3.5142, so the transformed distribution is well approximated by the normal distribution. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the transformation method and its applications in SPC. The transformed data are almost normally distributed and the performance of the individual charts is satisfactory. Compared to charts that use the original exponential data and probability control limits, the individual charts constructed using the transformed distribution are superior in appearance, ease of interpretation and implementation by practitioners.     

On the admissibility of the maximum-likelihood estimator of the binomial variance

This paper addresses the admissibility of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) of the variance of a binomial distribution with parameters n and p under squared-error loss. We show that the MLE is admissible for n ≤ 5 and inadmissible for n≥ 6.     

On the mvue for the distribution in the multivariate normal regression

In the multivariate normal regression setting, the estimability of a distribution is studied generalizing earlier results for the univariate case. The MVUE of an estimable distribution is obtained.     

Calculating the mvue of the fraction nonconforming for the bivariate normal

The minimum variance unbiased estimator of the proportion lying outside an m-dimensional rectangle for multivariate normal populations was derived by Baillie (1987a, b). The estimator is a natural extension of a univariate estimator widely used in acceptance sampling. Computation of the multivariate estimator is nontrivial; one must integrate a multivariate density over the intersection of an m-dimensional ellipsoid and an m-dimensional rectangle. We propose an algorithm for the bivariate case which involves a one-dimensional numerical integration and calls to routines for either an incomplete beta function or a Student's t cumulative distribution function     

论国民经济核算体系的理论基础

国民经济核算体系是宏观经济管理的重要工具,它在经济研究的领域中正受到世界各国越来越多的注意。国民经济核算体系首先是经济理论与经济统计相结合的产物,正确地理解核算体系的理论基础,对于核算体系的研究是十分重要的。     

经济体制改革与统计工作改革

党的十二届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于经济体制改革的决定》,正确地总结了历史和现实的经验教训,提出和阐明了经济体制改革的一系列重大理论和方针政策。它对指导我国以城市为重点的整个经济体制改革,对指导我国统计工作改革,都具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。     

On the distributions of the differences between the estimated autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations at the same lag

Pukkila (1982) introduced a new portmanteau-type test of white noise. The test is based on the differences between the estimated autocorrelations and the corresponding partial autocorrelations. In the present paper the distributions of these differences are consider in the case of normal white noise. Approximations to these distributions are given. Goodness of fit of these theoretical distributions and the corresponding observed distributions is studied using simulated time series of various lengths.     

人工神经网络变量选取与隐藏单元数的确定

根据多隐藏层所有训练样本误差平方和最小设计优化问题,求解并绘出计算流程图。Trevor等人认为隐藏单元过多比过少好,交叉验证估计（隐藏单元）正则化参数没有必要。还有一种通常做法是常常利用分类树挑选变量作为输入变量进行人工神经网络建模。而从人工神经网络与多元统计、传统回归和其他数据挖掘工具的区别和联系出发,认为这些观点和做法值得商酌;用ZIP编码实例说明隐藏单元过多不一定比过少好,实际数据分析中所需隐藏单元数的确定可以用交叉验证结合经验判断来实现,利用分类树选择的变量对于人工神经网络没有太大的效果;通过分类树删节变量以降低计算量的效果不如通过压缩隐藏单元个数降低计算量来得好;非完全问题“从简单到一般”思想与完全问题中选择所有变量的思想不矛盾。在总结了Le Cun等人的局部联结以有效降低权数思想的基础上,提出通过随机选择人工变量建立人工神经网络分布式模型系统的设想。     

On the UMVU estimator for the generalized variance of the multinomial family

Abstract

The generalized variance is an important statistical indicator which appears in a number of statistical topics. It is a successful measure for multivariate data concentration. In this article, we established, in a closed form, the bias of the generalized variance maximum likelihood estimator of the Multinomial family. We also derived, with a complete proof, the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVU) for the generalized variance of this family. These results rely on explicit calculations, the completeness of the exponential family and the Lehmann–Scheffé theorem.     

Disentangling the sources of variation in the survival of the European dipper

The population growth rate of the European dipper has been shown to decrease with winter temperature and population size. We examine here the demographic mechanism for this effect by analysing how these factors affect the survival rate. Using more than 20 years of capture-mark-recapture data (1974-1997) based on more than 4000 marked individuals, we perform analyses using open capture-mark-recapture models. This allowed us to estimate the annual apparent survival rates (probability of surviving and staying on the study site from one year to the next one) and the recapture probabilities. We partitioned the variance of the apparent survival rates into sampling variance and process variance using random effects models, and investigated which variables best accounted for temporal process variation. Adult males and females had similar apparent survival rates, with an average of 0.52 and a coefficient of variation of 40%. Chick apparent survival was lower, averaging 0.06 with a coefficient of variation of 42%. Eighty percent of the variance in apparent survival rates was explained by winter temperature and population size for adults and 48% by winter temperature for chicks. The process variance outweighed the sampling variance both for chick and adult survival rates, which explained that shrunk estimates obtained under random effects models were close to MLE estimates. A large proportion of the annual variation in the apparent survival rate of chicks appears to be explained by inter-year differences in dispersal rates.     

从市场实现看应用统计方法研究的桥梁作用

 台湾统计学者谢邦昌教授曾经有过这样的认识：任何领域都有其上中下游，统计也不例外。但统计的上游中，一些功力高强的学者不见得愿意帮助中下游解决问题，而中下游又感觉上游遥不可及，不敢把问题高告诉上游，觉得上游的理论太过高深。于是统计的上中下游出现了断层，影响了统计的发展（参见《统计的出世观与入世观》，《中国统计》1999年第二期）。对此我深有同感。这里先对统计做一个层次划分，然后从需求和供给两个方面对其进行分析，以期促进统计研究中的学科定位和工作定位。