Trends in health of older adults in the United States: Past,present, future

The decline in late-life disability prevalence in the United States was one of the most important developments in the well-being of older Americans in the 1980s and 1990s, but there is no guarantee that it will continue into the future. We review the past literature on trends in disability and other health indicators and then estimate the most recent trends in biomarkers and limitations for both the population aged 65 and older and those aged 40 to 64, the future elderly. We then investigate the extent to which trends in education, smoking, and obesity can account for recent trends in limitations and discuss how these three factors might influence future prospects for late-life health. We find that improvements in the health of the older population generally have continued into the first decade of the twenty-first century. The recent increase in the proportion of the younger population needing help with activities of daily living is concerning, as is the doubling of obesity in the last few decades. However, the increase in obesity has recently paused, and favorable trends in education and smoking are encouraging.     

Family size and maternal health: evidence from the One-Child policy in China

In this paper, we examine the impact of family size on maternal health outcomes by exploiting the tremendous change in family size under the One-Child policy in China. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1993–2006, we find that mothers with fewer children have a higher calorie intake and a lower probability of being underweight and having low blood pressure; meanwhile, they have a higher probability of being overweight. This would occur if a smaller family size increases the food consumption of mothers, leading underweight women to attain a normal weight and normal weight women becoming overweight. Robust tests are performed to provide evidence on the hypothesis that the tradeoff between children’s quantity and mother’s “quality” is through a budget constraint mechanism, that is, having more children decreases the resource allocated to mothers and affects their health outcomes.     

城乡互补的“填充”养老模式探讨

农村男性精英在城市化的过程中 ,有追求向上流动的现实需求 ;拥有丰富的经济资本和社会资本的城市独生女家庭由于女性独有的社会生存能力缺陷 ,面临着养老危机。同时 ,在城乡计划生育工作的落实与控制机制的城乡差别作用下 ,城市独生子女家庭的出现较农村早得多 ,在这种现实背景下 ,二者的互补性促成结合 ,从而形成独特的、城乡互补的“填充”养老模式。     

Determinants of out-migration in rural China: effects of payments for ecosystem services

Rural-to-urban migration has been a hallmark of economic development in China and other developing countries and can have profound socio-economic and ecological implications. This study seeks to understand the impacts on this migration of two large payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs implemented by the Chinese Government: the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP). The primary goal of these PES programs is environmental conservation with poverty alleviation as the secondary goal. We use a full model of the factors affecting rural out-migration at the individual, household, and community levels to investigate how these PES programs have influenced out-migration in a mountainous rural area of Anhui, China. Results show that the CCFP facilitates out-migration, while the EWFP overall discourages it, thereby somewhat offsetting the effects of the CCFP. Out-migration is also shown to be affected by a number of other individual, household, and community characteristics. The results are useful for designing concurrent PES programs in the future aiming at both environmental conservation and livelihood improvement in not only China but also other developing countries.     

The socio-economic status of migrant populations in regional and rural Australia and its implications for future population policy

The migrant population living in regional and rural Australia has been growing, partly because of the introduction and expansion of a number of state-specific and regional migration programs by the Australian Government over the period since 1995. The programs were created in response to both the skill shortages in regional and rural Australia and environmental and social critiques of urban migration. This study uses data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing in Australia to compare five socio-economic measures: labour force participation, unemployment, income, educational attainment, and occupational status, between the migrant and Australia-born populations. The results reveal that the migrant population in regional and rural Australia now records similar values for the labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, median individual weekly income, and proportion in high skill level occupations to the Australia-born population. The most notable difference is that migrants have a substantially higher level of education, particularly university education. The differences between men and women on these socio-economic measures are wider for the migrant population than for the Australia-born. Recently-arrived migrants are significantly more educated, more highly skilled and higher paid than their longer-standing counterparts. The study also discusses the differences between the larger migrant groups living in regional and rural Australia. The improvement in the socio-economic outcomes experienced by the migrant population of regional and rural Australia and their broad similarity to those of the Australia-born living in these regions strengthen the case for increasing the proportion of migrant settlers going to these regions.     

Fertility of rural China: effects of local family planning and health programs

The rationing of births in China after the 1979 announcement of the one-child family policy has been held responsible for the rapid decrease in Chinese fertility, whereas other observers have noted that parallel fertility declines occurred with voluntary behavior in other East and Southeast Asian countries. This paper assesses the joint contribution of local family planning and health programs, individual characteristics of women, and the development of their communities, as explanatory variables for Chinese fertility in rural areas of three provinces in 1985. Given the explicit quantitative reproductive goals of the government, an ordered Probit model for cumulative fertility is estimated for women age 15–34 and 35–49.The authors appreciate the comments on and corrections of our paper by John Ermisch and the programming assistance of Paul McGuire. The financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation is acknowledged.     

Family size in successive generations: The effects of birth order,intergenerational change in lifestyle,and familial satisfaction

Studies of family size in successive generations have found a small but persistently positive effect of size of family of orientation. Recent work has suggested that this relationship may be influenced by birth order, intergenerational change in lifestyle, and familial satisfaction. Data from a 24-year longitudinal study of women in Pennsylvania indicate that number of siblings does influence size of family of procreation. More important, this relationship is stronger among women who were first-born that later-born, stronger for those not experiencing intergenerational change than for those who changed, and stronger among those who at age 16 were satisfied with their parental family than for those who were dissatisfied.     

Family size and schooling in sub-Saharan African settings: A reexamination

Contrary to theory and evidence from many other regions, previous studies in sub-Saharan Africa have found surprisingly weak associations between family size and schooling. It is unclear; however, whether these weak results reflect (spurious) limitations in methodology or (real) differences in context. This study uses schooling histories from Cameroon to test four contending methodological and contextual explanations for these weak results: measurement bias, statistical estimation bias, family buffering, and socioeconomic context. We find the strongest support for the last explanation: the relationship between family size and schooling varies with spatial and historical context. This relationship has strengthened within the country over time, and this raises concern about the implications of current demographic transitions on inequality among children.     

城市计划生育工作存在的问题及对策

目前,城市计生工作正面临许多问题,原有的管理手段和方法也不适应。必须建立适应城市计划生育特点的新组织机构和专业工作队伍,建立相应的经常性工作机制和督查机制,突出优质服务,倡导知情选择,才能开创城市计划生育工作的新局面。     

Family size and the quality of children

If couples decide to have fewer children in order to achieve higher “quality” offspring, are they correct in assuming that the quality of children bears an important and inverse relation to family size? If they are correct, how does number of children operate to affect individual quality? This research (using U.S. whites primarily) takes educational attainment (among adults) and college plans (among youngsters) as the principal indicators of quality, but also directs some attention to measures of intelligence. The analysis supports the “dilution model” (on average, the more children the lower the quality of each child) and indicates that only children do not suffer from lack of siblings, and that other last-borns are not handicapped by a “teaching deficit.” Number of siblings (relative to other background variables) is found to have an important detrimental impact on child quality—an impact compounded by the fact that, when couples are at a stage in life to make family-size decisions, most background factors (however important to the quality of their children) are no longer readily manipulable. A special path analysis of college plans among boys uses a modification of Sewell’s Wisconsin Model as its base. The results show that number of siblings is a negative influence on intervening variables affecting college plans. In general, the research documents the unfavorable consequences for individual siblings of high fertility, even in a country that is (at least for whites) as socially, economically, and politically advantaged as the United States.     

城市家庭婚姻的现状与发展趋势分析——以青岛市为例

随着社会变革,城市家庭婚姻出现了一些新变化。利用2000年人口普查数据和相关调查,以青岛市的现状与趋势为例,阐释这些变化,并就家庭婚姻的"失谐"和"促谐"问题,提出分析与对策。近年,人们的婚恋观、家庭观比以往有了更宽阔的视野,婚姻态度的多样化及个性化的生活得到一定程度的尊重。但同时,影响家庭婚姻稳固的社会因素也在增多。构建和谐的家庭婚姻,需要我们从正确认识、把握趋势、打造宽松社会环境、倡导主流文化价值观、依法规范、社会关怀等方面付出努力。     

Family structure and well-being at older ages in Japan

The family structure of older Japanese is projected to change dramatically as a result of very low fertility, increasing levels of non-marriage, childlessness, and divorce, and declining intergenerational co-residence. To provide an empirical basis for speculation about the implications of projected increases in single-person and couple-only households, we use two sources of data to describe relationships between family structure and the physical and emotional well-being of Japanese men and women aged 60 and above. We find that marriage is positively associated with self-rated health and emotional well-being among older men but not women. In contrast to expectations, however, we find only limited evidence that the presence of children contributes to well-being. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that declines in marriage may have negative implications for the well-being of older Japanese men while the implications of declines in fertility and intergenerational co-residence may be less than popularly believed.     

中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析

本文利用 2 0 0 0年五普数据 ,根据户记录的有关信息 ,证明了家庭迁移是我国 1 990年代人口迁移中的一个重要特征 ,而且目前的家庭迁移是以核心家庭的迁移为主要形式。在此基础上 ,利用罗吉斯蒂回归分析了家庭特征对于家庭迁移的影响作用。分析表明 ,除了家庭特征以外 ,户主的个人特征在家庭迁移中同样是重要的影响因素     

Family size and educational attainment in England and Wales

In this paper, we use linked census data from England and Wales to investigate whether having a large number of siblings leads to lower educational attainment. There is a large literature suggesting that with large sibship size, parental resources will be diluted and this, in turn, will lead to lower educational attainment. Using twin births and the sex composition of the sibling group as instrumental variables, we find that the evidence of a family size effect on educational attainment is rather uncertain. Similar results are obtained when we use occupational attainment as the dependent variable. We also demonstrate the confounding of birth order and family size effects, and show that an adjusted birth order index proposed by Booth and Kee provides an effective solution to this estimation problem.     

Disability among older women and men in Fiji: concerns for the future

This study examines the composition of elderly population at risk of disability and speculates the impact of disability on the quality of their lives and their longevity. Using census and survey data collected in Fiji, life table estimates of unimpaired life expectancy across time are presented for older people and the potential costs of disability, in terms of productive years of life lost. From a planning perspective, the study discusses medical and support services that may be needed to support older individuals in Fiji. The study also describes policy implications of the findings, focusing on the older women, and considers the implications for older women of other developing countries.     

[On the size and structure of urban population and the socioeconomic development of China].]

Characteristics of the urban population in China are explored using data from the 1982 census. The author considers the relationships among urban population size and structure and socioeconomic development and discusses urban spatial distribution and development strategies.     

Health conditions in rural and urban areas of developing countries

The poor quality and meagre supply of data prohibit conclusions as to the relationship of health status to rural-urban residence in underdeveloped countries. Demographic indicators of health, specifically infant mortality and average life expectancy, do not seem to vary systematically according to rural-urban residence in the less developed countries ofAsia, Africa and Latin America. Further differences between rural and urban areas in availability of health services and facilities do not always conform with apparent differences between the areas in health status. However, nutritional standards, housing conditions, and sanitation, water supply and other pertinent environmental circumstances account to some extent for differences observed in health status between rural and urban inhabitants of these countries.     

Fertility in China: An uncertain future

As one of the world’s two population ‘billionaires’, the future of China’s population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country’s famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges.     

[The size, type, and structure of rural families in the course of modernization in China].]

Trends in rural family size and structure in China are analyzed using data from a household survey conducted in 1986 among 508 families in Jiao county, Shandong province. The results indicate that family size has remained constant at around 4.48 family members from 1980 to 1986. A general trend toward the nuclear family is noted.