How to Avoid Undue Influence of Federal Agencies on the Editorial Content of ASA Journals

This note discusses a problem that might occur when forward stepwise regression is used for variable selection and among the candidate variables is a categorical variable with more than two categories. Most software packages (such as SAS, SPSS^x, BMDP) include special programs for performing stepwise regression. The user of these programs has to code categorical variables with dummy variables. In this case the forward selection might wrongly indicate that a categorical variable with more than two categories is nonsignificant. This is a disadvantage of the forward selection compared with the backward elimination method. A way to avoid the problem would be to test in a single step all dummy variables corresponding to the same categorical variable rather than one dummy variable at a time, such as in the analysis of covariance. This option, however, is not available in forward stepwise procedures, except for stepwise logistic regression in BMDP. A practical possibility is to repeat the forward stepwise regression and change the reference categories each time.     

Hierarchically penalized quantile regression

In many regression problems, predictors are naturally grouped. For example, when a set of dummy variables is used to represent categorical variables, or a set of basis functions of continuous variables is included in the predictor set, it is important to carry out a feature selection both at the group level and at individual variable levels within the group simultaneously. To incorporate the group and variables within-group information into a regularized model fitting, several regularization methods have been developed, including the Cox regression and the conditional mean regression. Complementary to earlier works, the simultaneous group and within-group variables selection method is examined in quantile regression. We propose a hierarchically penalized quantile regression, and show that the hierarchical penalty possesses the oracle property in quantile regression, as well as in the Cox regression. The proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies and a real data application.     

Model selection for logistic regression via association rules analysis

Interaction is very common in reality, but has received little attention in logistic regression literature. This is especially true for higher-order interactions. In conventional logistic regression, interactions are typically ignored. We propose a model selection procedure by implementing an association rules analysis. We do this by (1) exploring the combinations of input variables which have significant impacts to response (via association rules analysis); (2) selecting the potential (low- and high-order) interactions; (3) converting these potential interactions into new dummy variables; and (4) performing variable selections among all the input variables and the newly created dummy variables (interactions) to build up the optimal logistic regression model. Our model selection procedure establishes the optimal combination of main effects and potential interactions. The comparisons are made through thorough simulations. It is shown that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in all cases. A real-life example is discussed in detail to demonstrate the proposed method.     

Simultaneous structure estimation and variable selection in partial linear varying coefficient models for longitudinal data

Partial linear varying coefficient models (PLVCM) are often considered for analysing longitudinal data for a good balance between flexibility and parsimony. The existing estimation and variable selection methods for this model are mainly built upon which subset of variables have linear or varying effect on the response is known in advance, or say, model structure is determined. However, in application, this is unreasonable. In this work, we propose a simultaneous structure estimation and variable selection method, which can do simultaneous coefficient estimation and three types of selections: varying and constant effects selection, relevant variable selection. It can be easily implemented in one step by employing a penalized M-type regression, which uses a general loss function to treat mean, median, quantile and robust mean regressions in a unified framework. Consistency in the three types of selections and oracle property in estimation are established as well. Simulation studies and real data analysis also confirm our method.     

Multi-Step Classification Trees

Many algorithms originated from decision trees have been developed for classification problems. Although they are regarded as good algorithms, most of them suffer from loss of prediction accuracy, namely high misclassification rates when there are many irrelevant variables. We propose multi-step classification trees with adaptive variable selection (the multi-step GUIDE classification tree (MG) and the multi-step CRUISE classification tree (MC) to handle this problem. The variable selection step and the fitting step comprise the multi-step method.

We compare the performance of classification trees in the presence of irrelevant variables. MG and MC perform better than Random Forest and C4.5 with an extremely noisy dataset. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of our proposed algorithm is relatively stable even when the number of irrelevant variables increases, while that of other algorithms worsens.     

Group variable selection in cardiopulmonary cerebral resuscitation data for veterinary patients

Cardiopulmonary cerebral resuscitation (CPCR) is a procedure to restore spontaneous circulation in patients with cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA). While animals with CPA generally have a lower success rate of CPCR than people do, CPCR studies in veterinary patients have been limited. In this paper, we construct a model for predicting success or failure of CPCR, and identifying and evaluating factors that affect the success of CPCR in veterinary patients. Due to reparametrization using multiple dummy variables or close proximity in nature, many variables in the data form groups, and thus a desirable method should take this grouping feature into account in variable selection. To accomplish these goals, we propose an adaptive group bridge method for a logistic regression model. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated under different simulated setups and compared with several other regression methods. Using the logistic group bridge model, we analyze data from a CPCR study for veterinary patients and discuss their implications on the practice of veterinary medicine.     

Grouped penalization estimation of the osteoporosis data in the traditional Chinese medicine

Both continuous and categorical covariates are common in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) research, especially in the clinical syndrome identification and in the risk prediction research. For groups of dummy variables which are generated by the same categorical covariate, it is important to penalize them group-wise rather than individually. In this paper, we discuss the group lasso method for a risk prediction analysis in TCM osteoporosis research. It is the first time to apply such a group-wise variable selection method in this field. It may lead to new insights of using the grouped penalization method to select appropriate covariates in the TCM research. The introduced methodology can select categorical and continuous variables, and estimate their parameters simultaneously. In our application of the osteoporosis data, four covariates (including both categorical and continuous covariates) are selected out of 52 covariates. The accuracy of the prediction model is excellent. Compared with the prediction model with different covariates, the group lasso risk prediction model can significantly decrease the error rate and help TCM doctors to identify patients with a high risk of osteoporosis in clinical practice. Simulation results show that the application of the group lasso method is reasonable for the categorical covariates selection model in this TCM osteoporosis research.     

Variable selection in gamma regression models via artificial bee colony algorithm

Variable selection is an important task in regression analysis. Performance of the statistical model highly depends on the determination of the subset of predictors. There are several methods to select most relevant variables to construct a good model. However in practice, the dependent variable may have positive continuous values and not normally distributed. In such situations, gamma distribution is more suitable than normal for building a regression model. This paper introduces an heuristic approach to perform variable selection using artificial bee colony optimization for gamma regression models. We evaluated the proposed method against with classical selection methods such as backward and stepwise. Both simulation studies and real data set examples proved the accuracy of our selection procedure.     

Model-averaged ℓ1 regularization using Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is an effective technique for addressing model uncertainty in variable selection problems. However, current BMA approaches have computational difficulty dealing with data in which there are many more measurements (variables) than samples. This paper presents a method for combining ?₁ regularization and Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition techniques for BMA. By treating the ?₁ regularization path as a model space, we propose a method to resolve the model uncertainty issues arising in model averaging from solution path point selection. We show that this method is computationally and empirically effective for regression and classification in high-dimensional data sets. We apply our technique in simulations, as well as to some applications that arise in genomics.     

Shrinkage estimation of varying covariate effects based on quantile regression

Varying covariate effects often manifest meaningful heterogeneity in covariate-response associations. In this paper, we adopt a quantile regression model that assumes linearity at a continuous range of quantile levels as a tool to explore such data dynamics. The consideration of potential non-constancy of covariate effects necessitates a new perspective for variable selection, which, under the assumed quantile regression model, is to retain variables that have effects on all quantiles of interest as well as those that influence only part of quantiles considered. Current work on l ₁-penalized quantile regression either does not concern varying covariate effects or may not produce consistent variable selection in the presence of covariates with partial effects, a practical scenario of interest. In this work, we propose a shrinkage approach by adopting a novel uniform adaptive LASSO penalty. The new approach enjoys easy implementation without requiring smoothing. Moreover, it can consistently identify the true model (uniformly across quantiles) and achieve the oracle estimation efficiency. We further extend the proposed shrinkage method to the case where responses are subject to random right censoring. Numerical studies confirm the theoretical results and support the utility of our proposals.     

Variable Selection and Updating In Model-Based Discriminant Analysis for High Dimensional Data with Food Authenticity Applications

Food authenticity studies are concerned with determining if food samples have been correctly labelled or not. Discriminant analysis methods are an integral part of the methodology for food authentication. Motivated by food authenticity applications, a model-based discriminant analysis method that includes variable selection is presented. The discriminant analysis model is fitted in a semi-supervised manner using both labeled and unlabeled data. The method is shown to give excellent classification performance on several high-dimensional multiclass food authenticity datasets with more variables than observations. The variables selected by the proposed method provide information about which variables are meaningful for classification purposes. A headlong search strategy for variable selection is shown to be efficient in terms of computation and achieves excellent classification performance. In applications to several food authenticity datasets, our proposed method outperformed default implementations of Random Forests, AdaBoost, transductive SVMs and Bayesian Multinomial Regression by substantial margins.     

Cluster Data Streams with Noisy Variables

Clustering algorithms are important methods widely used in mining data streams because of their abilities to deal with infinite data flows. Although these algorithms perform well to mining latent relationship in data streams, most of them suffer from loss of cluster purity and become unstable when the inputting data streams have too many noisy variables. In this article, we propose a clustering algorithm to cluster data streams with noisy variables. The result from simulation shows that our proposal method is better than previous studies by adding a process of variable selection as a component in clustering algorithms. The results of two experiments indicate that clustering data streams with the process of variable selection are more stable and have better purity than those without such process. Another experiment testing KDD-CUP99 dataset also shows that our algorithm can generate more stable result.     

Modified SEE variable selection for varying coefficient instrumental variable models

We consider the problem of variable selection for a class of varying coefficient models with instrumental variables. We focus on the case that some covariates are endogenous variables, and some auxiliary instrumental variables are available. An instrumental variable based variable selection procedure is proposed by using modified smooth-threshold estimating equations (SEEs). The proposed procedure can automatically eliminate the irrelevant covariates by setting the corresponding coefficient functions as zero, and simultaneously estimate the nonzero regression coefficients by solving the smooth-threshold estimating equations. The proposed variable selection procedure avoids the convex optimization problem, and is flexible and easy to implement. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the proposed variable selection method.     

Variable selection in classification model via quadratic programming

Variable selection is an important decision process in consumer credit scoring. However, with the rapid growth in credit industry, especially, after the rising of e-commerce, a huge amount of information on customer behavior is available to provide more informative implication of consumer credit scoring. In this study, a hybrid quadratic programming model is proposed for consumer credit scoring problems by variable selection. The proposed model is then solved with a bisection method based on Tabu search algorithm (BMTS), and the solution of this model provides alternative subsets of variables in different sizes. The final subset of variables used in consumer credit scoring model is selected based on both the size (number of variables in a subset) and predictive (classification) accuracy rate. Simulation studies are used to measure the performances of the proposed model, illustrating its effectiveness for simultaneous variable selection as well as classification.     

数据挖掘中多分类有序变量间距差异分析及应用

文章在明确累积logistic回归模型的基础上,针对多分类有序变量存在间距差异的问题,提出了统计检验方法并引入工具虚拟变量对logistic模型加以改进,通过其在实际中的应用,取得了良好的效果.     

Bayesian variable selection with related predictors

In data sets with many predictors, algorithms for identifying a good subset of predictors are often used. Most such algorithms do not allow for any relationships between predictors. For example, stepwise regression might select a model containing an interaction AB but neither main effect A or B. This paper develops mathematical representations of this and other relations between predictors, which may then be incorporated in a model selection procedure. A Bayesian approach that goes beyond the standard independence prior for variable selection is adopted, and preference for certain models is interpreted as prior information. Priors relevant to arbitrary interactions and polynomials, dummy variables for categorical factors, competing predictors, and restrictions on the size of the models are developed. Since the relations developed are for priors, they may be incorporated in any Bayesian variable selection algorithm for any type of linear model. The application of the methods here is illustrated via the stochastic search variable selection algorithm of George and McCulloch (1993), which is modified to utilize the new priors. The performance of the approach is illustrated with two constructed examples and a computer performance dataset.     

Fused least absolute shrinkage and selection operator for credit scoring

Credit scoring can be defined as the set of statistical models and techniques that help financial institutions in their credit decision makings. In this paper, we consider a coarse classification method based on fused least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalization. By adopting fused LASSO, one can deal continuous as well as discrete variables in a unified framework. For computational efficiency, we develop a penalization path algorithm. Through numerical examples, we compare the performances of fused LASSO and LASSO with dummy variable coding.     

Empirical likelihood based variable selection

Information criteria form an important class of model/variable selection methods in statistical analysis. Parametric likelihood is a crucial part of these methods. In some applications such as the generalized linear models, the models are only specified by a set of estimating functions. To overcome the non-availability of well defined likelihood function, the information criteria under empirical likelihood are introduced. Under this setup, we successfully solve the existence problem of the profile empirical likelihood due to the over constraint in variable selection problems. The asymptotic properties of the new method are investigated. The new method is shown to be consistent at selecting the variables under mild conditions. Simulation studies find that the proposed method has comparable performance to the parametric information criteria when a suitable parametric model is available, and is superior when the parametric model assumption is violated. A real data set is also used to illustrate the usefulness of the new method.     

Bayesian variable selection with strong heredity constraints

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian variable selection method for linear regression models with high-order interactions. Our method automatically enforces the heredity constraint, that is, a higher order interaction term can exist in the model only if both of its parent terms are in the model. Based on the stochastic search variable selection George and McCulloch (1993), we propose a novel hierarchical prior that fully considers the heredity constraint and controls the degree of sparsity simultaneously. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to explore the model space efficiently while accounting for the heredity constraint by modifying the shotgun stochastic search algorithm Hans et al. (2007). The performance of the new model is demonstrated through comparisons with other methods. Numerical studies on both real data analysis and simulations show that our new method tends to find relevant variable more effectively when higher order interaction terms are considered.