Prediction based on linear combinations of order statistics and bivariate concomitants in the case of multivariate elliptical distributions

In this paper, by considering a (3n+1) -dimensional random vector (X₀, X^T, Y^T, Z^T)^T having a multivariate elliptical distribution, we derive the exact joint distribution of (X₀, a^TX_(n), b^TY_[n], c^TZ_[n])^T, where a, b, c∈?ⁿ, X_(n)=(X₍₁₎, …, X_(n))^T, X₍₁₎<···<X_(n), is the vector of order statistics arising from X, and Y_[n]=(Y_[1], …, Y_[n])^T and Z_[n]=(Z_[1], …, Z_[n])^T denote the vectors of concomitants corresponding to X_(n) ((Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n, is the vector of bivariate concomitants corresponding to X_(r)). We then present an alternate approach for the derivation of the exact joint distribution of (X₀, X_(r), Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n. We show that these joint distributions can be expressed as mixtures of four-variate unified skew-elliptical distributions and these mixture forms facilitate the prediction of X_(r), say, based on the concomitants Y_[r] and Z_[r]. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our results by a real data.     

Moments of suprema of random variables

The supremum of random variables representing a sequence of rewards is of interest in establishing the existence of optimal stopping rules. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for existence of moments of sup_n(X_n ? c_n) and sup_n(S_n ? c_n) where X₁, X₂, … are i.i.d. random variables, S_n = X₁ + … + X_n, and c_n = (nL(n))^1/r, 0 < r < 2, L = 1, L = log, and L = log log. Following Cohn (1974), “rates of convergence” results are used in the proof.     

Limiting behavior of randomly weighted averages of symmetric heavy-tailed random variables

In this paper we consider a sequence of independent continuous symmetric random variables X₁, X₂, …, with heavy-tailed distributions. Then we focus on limiting behavior of randomly weighted averages S_n = R⁽ⁿ⁾₁X₁ + ??? + R⁽ⁿ⁾_nX_n, where the random weights R⁽ⁿ⁾₁, …, R_n⁽ⁿ⁾ which are independent of X₁, X₂, …, X_n, are the cuts of (0, 1) by the n ? 1 order statistics from a uniform distribution. Indeed we prove that c_nS_n converges in distribution to a symmetric α-stable random variable with c_n = n^{1 ? 1/α}/Γ^1/α(α + 1).     

Local asymptotic normality of intermediate and central order statistics

Consider n independent random variables Z_i,…, Z_n on R with common distribution function F, whose upper tail belongs to a parametric family F(t) = F_θ(t),t ≥ x₀, where θ ∈ ? ? R ^d. A necessary and sufficient condition for the family F_θ, θ ∈ ?, is established such that the k-th largest order statistic Z_n?k+1:n alone constitutes the central sequence yielding local asymptotic normality ( LAN ) of the loglikelihood ratio of the vector (Z_n?i+1:n)¹ _i=kof the k largest order statistics. This is achieved for k = k(n)→_n→∞∞ with k/n→_n→∞ 0.

In the case of vectors of central order statistics ( Z_r:n, Z_r+1:n,…, Z_s:n ), with r/n and s/n both converging to q ∈ ( 0,1 ), it turns out that under fairly general conditions any order statistic Z_m:n with r ≤ m ≤s builds the central sequence in a pertaining LAN expansion.These results lead to asymptotically optimal tests and estimators of the underlying parameter, which depend on single order statistics only     

A construction of group divisible designs

Given any affine design with parameters v, b, r, k, λ and μ = k²/v and any design with parameters v′, b′, r′, k′, λ′ where r′ = tr for some natural number `t and k′?r, we construct a group divisible design with parameters v′' = vv′, m = v′, n = v, b′' = vb′, k′' = kk′, r′'= kr′, λ₁ = tkλ and λ₂ = μλ′. This is applied to some series of designs. As a lemma, we also show that any 0-1-matrix with row sums tr and column sums ?r may be written as the sum of r 0-1-matrices with row sums t and column sums ?1.     

Berry–Esseen type bounds in heteroscedastic errors-in-variables model

ABSTRACT

Consider the heteroscedastic partially linear errors-in-variables (EV) model y_i = x_iβ + g(t_i) + ε_i, ξ_i = x_i + μ_i (1 ? i ? n), where ε_i = σ_ie_i are random errors with mean zero, σ²_i = f(u_i), (x_i, t_i, u_i) are non random design points, x_i are observed with measurement errors μ_i. When f( · ) is known, we derive the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β and g( · ) under {e_i,?1 ? i ? n} is a sequence of stationary α-mixing random variables, when f( · ) is unknown, the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β, g( · ), and f( · ) are discussed under independent errors.     

Theory of factorial designs of the parallel flats type. I: the coefficient matrix

Let GF(s) be the finite field with s elements.(Thus, when s=3, the elements of GF(s) are 0, 1 and 2.)Let A(r×n), of rank r, and c_i(i=1,…,f), (r×1), be matrices over GF(s). (Thus, for n=4, r=2, f=2, we could have A=[¹¹¹⁰₀₁₂₁], c₁=[¹₀], c₂=[⁰₂].) Let T_i (i=1,…,f) be the flat in EG(n, s) consisting of the set of all the s^n?r solutions of the equations At=c_i, wheret′=(t₁,…,t_n) is a vector of variables.(Thus, EG(4, 3) consists of the 3⁴=81 points of the form (t₁,t₂,t₃,t₄), where t's take the values 0,1,2 (in GF(3)). The number of solutions of the equations At=c_i is s^n?r, where r=Rank(A), and the set of such solutions is said to form an (n?r)-flat, i.e. a flat of (n?r) dimensions. In our example, both T₁ and T₂ are 2-flats consisting of 3^4?2=9 points each. The flats T₁,T₂,…,T_f are said to be parallel since, clearly, no two of them can have a common point. In the example, the points of T₁ are (1000), (0011), (2022), (0102), (2110), (1121), (2201), (1212) and (0220). Also, T₂ consists of (0002), (2010), (1021), (2101), (1112), (0120), (1200), (0211) and (2222).) Let T be the fractional design for a sⁿ symmetric factorial experiment obtained by taking T₁,T₂,…,T_f together. (Thus, in the example, 3⁴=81 treatments of the 3⁴ factorial experiment correspond one-one with the points of EG(4,3), and T will be the design (i.e. a subset of the 81 treatments) consisting of the 18 points of T₁ and T₂ enumerated above.)In this paper, we lay the foundation of the general theory of such ‘parallel’ types of designs. We define certain functions of A called the alias component matrices, and use these to partition the coefficient matrix X (n×v), occuring in the corresponding linear model, into components X._j(j=0,1,…,g), such that the information matrix X is the direct sum of the X′._jX._j. Here, v is the total number of parameters, which consist of (possibly μ), and a (general) set of (geometric) factorial effects (each carrying (s?1) degrees of freedom as usual). For j≠0, we show that the spectrum of X′._jX._j does not change if we change (in a certain important way) the usual definition of the effects. Assuming that such change has been adopted, we consider the partition of the X._j into the X_ij (i=1,…,f). Furthermore, the X_ij are in turn partitioned into smaller matrices (which we shall here call the) X_ijh. We show that each X_ijh can be factored into a product of 3 matrices J, ζ (not depending on i,j, and h) and Q(j,h,i)where both the Kronecker and ordinary product are used. We introduce a ring R using the additive groups of the rational field and GF(s), and show that the Q(j,h,i) belong to a ring isomorphic to R. When s is a prime number, we show that R is the cyclotomic field. Finally, we show that the study of the X._j and X′._jX._j can be done in a much simpler manner, in terms of certain relatively small sized matrices over R.     

Estimation of an autoregressive semiparametric model with exogenous variables

In many autoregressive relationships, there are observed external influences. This paper deals with the estimation of the multivariate model X_t+1= φ(X_t,…,X_t−r+1) + ψ(Y_t) + ε_t, where φ(·) is an unknown nonlinear function, ∫ the exogenous variable concerning ψ(·). Two cases are considered: ψ(·) is linear ψ(Y_t) = AY_t, where A is an unknown parameter, and ψ(·) the nonlinear function corresponding to a series expansion. In the latter situation, the method of estimation is ‘seminonparametric’. We first isolate and estimate parametrically the exogenous part, and then estimate nonparametrically the endogenous part ψ(·).     

On the bounded regret of empirical bayes estimators

Let (θ₁,x₁),…,(θ_n,x_n) be independent and identically distributed random vectors with E(xθ) = θ and Var(x|θ) = a + bθ + cθ². Let t_i be the linear Bayes estimator of θ_i and θ~_i be the linear empirical Bayes estimator of θ_i as proposed in Robbins (1983). When Ex and Var x are unknown to the statistician. The regret of using θ~_i instead of t_i because of ignorance of the mean and the variance is r_i = E(θ_i ? θ_i)² ?E(t_i ?θ_i)². Under appropriate conditions cumulative regret R_n = r₁+…r_n is shown to have a finite limit even when n tends to infinity. The limit can be explicitly computed in terms of a,b,c and the first four moments of x.     

A RENEWAL THEOREM IN MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME

Let Y_l, Y₂,… be i.i.d., positive, integer-valued random variables with means, μ. Let the sequences {Y_ij, j= 1,2,…}, i= 1,…, r be independent copies of {Y₁, Y₂,…}. For n={n₁,…, n_r.}, n₁≥1, let S_n=S?ⁿ¹_k1=1= 1 …S?^nr_kr=1 Y_ik1… Y_rkr. We show that S?^N_k=1S?^∞_k1=1…S?^∞_nr=1 P[[S_n= k] ? [μ^-r N log^r-1 (N)/(r-1)!] as N →∞.     

Dependence Structure of Spacings of Order Statistics

Let X_1:n ≤ X_2:n ≤···≤ X_n:n denote the order statistics of a sample of n independent random variables X₁, X₂,…, X_n, all identically distributed as some X. It is shown that if X has a log-convex [log-concave] density function, then the general spacing vector (X_k1:n, X_k2:n ? X_k1:n,…, X_kr:n ? X_kr?1:n) is MTP₂ [S-MRR₂] whenever 1 ≤ k₁ < k₂ <···< k_r ≤ n and 1 ≤ r ≤ n. Multivariate likelihood ratio ordering of such general spacing vectors corresponding to two random samples is also considered. These extend some of the results in the literature for usual spacing vectors.     

Poisson approximations in selected metrics by coupling and semigroup methods with applications

Let S_n = X₁ + … + X_n, where X₁,…, X_n are independent Bernoulli random variables. In this paper, we evaluate probability metrics of the Wasserstein type between the distribution of S_n and a Poisson distribution. Our results show that, if E(S_n) = O(1) and if the individual probabilities of success of the X_i's tend uniformly to zero, then the general rate of convergence of the above mentioned metrics to zero is O(∑ⁿ_i = ₁P²_i). We also show that this rate is sharp and discuss applications of these results.     

On the Influence of Record Terms in the Addition of Independent Random Variables

We discuss some problems connected with the role of record values and maximal values generated by sequences of random variables X₁, X₂,…, X _n in the process of the growth of sums X₁ +···+ X_n, n = 1, 2,….     

Generalized Bhaskar Rao designs

Generalized Bhaskar Rao designs with non-zero elements from an abelian group G are constructed. In particular this paper shows that the necessary conditions are sufficient for the existence of generalized Bhaskar Rao designs with k=3 for the following groups: ?G? is odd, G=Z^r₂, and G=Z^r₂×H where 3? ?H? and r?1. It also constructs generalized Bhaskar Rao designs with υ=k, which is equivalent to υ rows of a generalized Hadamard matrix of order n where υ?n.     

On the asymptotic expectation and variance of the number of boundary crossings

Let X₁,X₂,… be independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables with mean μ, and let S_n = X₁ + … + X_n. For each λ > 0 and each n ≥ 1, let A_n be the interval [λn^Y, ∞), where γ > 1 is a constant. The number of times that S_n is in A_n is denoted by N. As λ tends to zero, the asymtotic behavior of N is studied. Specifically under suitable conditions, the expectation of N is shown to be (μλ^?1)^β + o(λ^?β/2 where β = 1/(γ-1) and the variance of N is shown to be (μλ^?1)^β(βμ¹)²σ² + o(λ^?β) where σ² is the variance of X_n.     

Nonparametric statistical procedures for the changepoint problem

Let X₁,…,X_r?1,X_r,X_r+1,…,X_n be independent, continuous random variables such that X_i, i = 1,…,r, has distribution function F(x), and X_i, i = r+1,…,n, has distribution function F(x?Δ), with -∞ <Δ< ∞. When the integer r is unknown, this is refered to as a change point problem with at most one change. The unknown parameter Δ represents the magnitude of the change and r is called the changepoint. In this paper we present a general review discussion of several nonparametric approaches for making inferences about r and Δ.     

Admissible tests for the mean with additional information

Let X be a po-normal random vector with unknown µ and unknown covariance matrix ∑ and let X be partitioned as X = (X^′ ₍₁₎, …, X^′ _(r))′ where X_(j)is a subvector of X with dimension p_jsuch that ∑^r _j=1Pj = P0. Some admissible tests are derived for testing H₀: μ = 0 versus H₁: μ ¦0 based on a sample drawn from the whole vector X of dimension p and r additional samples drawn from X₍₁₎, X₍₂₎, …, X(r) respectively, All (r+1) samples are assumed to be independent. The distribution of some of the tests' statistics involved are also derived.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for expectile functions

Expectile regression, as a general M smoother, is used to capture the tail behaviour of a distribution. Let (X ₁,Y ₁),…,(X _n ,Y _n ) be i.i.d. rvs. Denote by v(x) the unknown τ-expectile regression curve of Y conditional on X, and by v _n (x) its kernel smoothing estimator. In this paper, we prove the strong uniform consistency rate of v _n (x) under general conditions. Moreover, using strong approximations of the empirical process and extreme value theory, we consider the asymptotic maximal deviation sup_0≤x≤1|v _n (x)?v(x)|. According to the asymptotic theory, we construct simultaneous confidence bands around the estimated expectile function. Furthermore, we apply this confidence band to temperature analysis. Taking Berlin and Taipei as an example, we investigate the temperature risk drivers to these two cities.     

Concomitants of multivariate order statistics from multivariate elliptical distributions

ABSTRACT

In this article, we consider a (k + 1)n-dimensional elliptically contoured random vector (X^T₁, X₂^T, …, X^T_k, Z^T)^T = (X₁₁, …, X_1n, …, X_k1, …, X_kn, Z₁, …, Z_n)^T and derive the distribution of concomitant of multivariate order statistics arising from X₁, X₂, …, X_k. Specially, we derive a mixture representation for concomitant of bivariate order statistics. The joint distribution of the concomitant of bivariate order statistics is also obtained. Finally, the usefulness of our result is illustrated by a real-life data.     

Extreme probabilities for contingency tables under row and column independence with application to fisher's exact test

Theorerms are proved for the maxima and minima of IIR_i!/IIC_j!/T!II_yij ! over r× c contingcncy tables Y=(y_ij) with row sums R₁,…,R_r, column sums C₁,…,C_c, and grand total T. These results are imlplemented into the network algorithm of Mehta and Patel (1983) for computing the P-value of Fisher's exact test for unordered r×c contingency tables. The decrease in the amount of computing time can be substantial when the column sums are very different.