DOES THE VAT TAX EXPORTS?

While a VAT should in principle be neutral with respect to international trade, it may in practice function as a tax on exporters' input purchases if firms receive incomplete VAT refunds. Using data for over 100 countries that span the majority of historical VAT adoption episodes, this paper finds that—consistent with this hypothesis—the VAT reduces the exports of an industry with a 10 percentage point higher intermediate goods share of output by over 8% relative to an industry with a lower share. This effect is driven by developing countries and is absent for high-income countries. (JEL F13, F14, H25, H87, O11)     

DOES THE LAUNCH OF THE EURO HINDER THE CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT OF THE EUROZONE?

This paper examines current account adjustments before and after the launch of the euro. Applying a dynamic panel model, we provide robust evidence to support that the adoption of the euro facilitates rather than hinders the adjustment of current accounts. This finding agrees with our results that the use of the euro assists real exchange rate and inflation rate adjustments. We also find that the independence of exchange rate regimes from current account, real exchange rate and inflation rate adjustments is observed when standard panel estimation methods are applied and when time‐varying smooth shifts in mean are not controlled. (JEL C33, F32, F41)     

DOES THE GREAT RECESSION IMPLY THE END OF THE GREAT MODERATION? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

In this paper we examine whether or not the Great Recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties. Based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries, our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the Great Moderation period but rather that the Great Recession is characterized by a dramatic short‐lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility. We show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on GARCH specifications. (JEL E32, C22, O40)     

DOES THE MINIMUM LEGAL DRINKING AGE SAVE LIVES?

The minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) is widely believed to save lives by reducing traffic fatalities among underage drivers. Further, the Federal Uniform Drinking Age Act, which pressured all states to adopt an MLDA of 21, is regarded as having contributed enormously to this life-saving effect. This article challenges both claims. State-level panel data for the past 30 yr show that any nationwide impact of the MLDA is driven by states that increased their MLDA prior to any inducement from the federal government. Even in early-adopting states, the impact of the MLDA did not persist much past the year of adoption. The MLDA appears to have only a minor impact on teen drinking. ( JEL H11, K42)     

DOES SOCIAL CAPITAL PROMOTE SAFETY ON THE ROADS?

I present evidence that social capital reduces traffic accidents and related death and injury, using data from a 10‐year panel of 48 U.S. states. The econometric challenge is to distinguish the causal effects of social capital from bias resulting from its correlation with unobservable characteristics by state that influence road risks. I accomplish this by employing snow depth as an instrument, and by restricting attention to summertime accidents. My results show that social capital has a statistically significant and sizable negative effect on crashes, traffic fatalities, serious traffic injuries, and pedestrian fatalities that holds up across a range of specifications. (JEL R41, I18, Z13)     

DOES OPTION THEORY HOLD FOR MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL CONTRACTS?

We test whether option theory indicated by the Black–Scholes formula is consistent with contract negotiations between teams and players in Major League Baseball (MLB). Teams use contract options in order to obtain the right to buy a player's services for an extra year when negotiating multiple year contracts. These options are similar to European call options, and should reduce the risk of buying volatile assets (players with high variation in performance). In this paper, we model the decision to buy an option (include an option year in the contract) and whether to exercise the option (pay the option salary in the option year versus buying out the option). The results indicate that the behavior of MLB teams is consistent with standard option theory both in terms of buying and exercising options. The sample is the complete population of free agent hitters who signed new contracts between the years 2003 and 2011. We were unable to find any published literature that has addressed this issue. (JEL ZO, H3)     

DOES FINANCE ALTER THE RELATION BETWEEN INEQUALITY AND GROWTH?

This paper introduces a model in which greater inequality reduces growth in economies with low levels of financial development but that this effect is attenuated in economies with more developed systems. The model also predicts that individuals in economies with developed financial markets have a higher tolerance to inequality. Using a panel dataset that covers a large number of countries, this paper shows empirical evidence that is consistent with the main predictions of the model. Overall, this paper's major findings highlight that some of the pernicious effects of inequality can be attenuated by improving access to credit. (JEL D3, E6, P1, O4, I2)     

DOES RAIDING EXPLAIN THE NEGATIVE RETURNS TO FACULTY SENIORITY?

We track faculty for 30 yr at five PhD‐granting departments of economics. Two‐thirds of faculty who take alternative employment move downward; less than one‐quarter moves upward. We find a substantial penalty for seniority, even after richly controlling for faculty productivity, and the penalty is little changed when we allow wages and returns to seniority to differ by mobility status. Faculty who end up moving to better or comparable positions were penalized as severely for seniority while they were in our sample as faculty who stay. These results are incompatible with the raiding hypothesis. Faculty from top 10 programs are also punished for seniority but to a lesser degree than other faculty, which could reflect reduced monopsony power against such faculty if they are more marketable. All results persist when we control for prospective publications and allow lower returns for older publications. Match‐quality bias has dissipated in the post‐internet period, which may be the consequence of greater availability of information. (JEL J62, J44, J42)     

DOES TELEVISION ENTRY DECREASE THE NUMBER OF MOVIE THEATERS?

This paper empirically examines the impact of competition in the television (TV) industry on the number of movie theaters, their attendance, and their box office revenues. Studies of firm entry usually focus on the impact of regulation on economic outcomes within an industry, thereby neglecting its impact on neighboring industries. Using changes in regulation in the Spanish local TV station industry, we estimate the impact of TV entry on the movie theater industry between 1993 and 2005. Our findings show that local TV entry decreased the number of theaters and screens in a province, as well as movie attendance and box office revenues. (JEL L11, L43, L82)     

DOES THE PUBLIC SECTOR IMPLODE FROM BAUMOL'S COST DISEASE?

The root of the Baumol cost disease is higher productivity increases for manufactured goods than for services. The implied increase in relative costs of service production is widely claimed to have devastating implications for the public sector as a provider of tax‐financed services such as health, education, and care. To match the increasing costs it appears inevitable that tax rates would be ever increasing. It is shown that this inference does not follow under standard assumptions when accounting explicitly for service provision from both the private and public sectors. Strikingly under assumptions often made in the literature, the welfare maximizing tax rate for a utilitarian policy maker would remain constant despite the Baumol cost disease, and by implication the share of public employment in total employment will remain constant. (JEL H5, H11, O41)     

DO REEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS FOR THE UNEMPLOYED WORK FOR YOUTH? EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT RECESSION IN THE UNITED STATES

We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth unemployment insurance (UI) recipients during the Great Recession. The three programs that emphasized monitoring and service referrals reduced UI receipt but had minimal effects on employment and earnings; these programs mainly induced the early exit of participants. The fourth program, which combined mandatory job counseling with monitoring, caused the largest reductions in UI receipt and clearly increased employment and earnings. Both early participant exits and effective job counseling underlie these impacts. We conclude that policymakers should require job counseling for youth UI recipients during recessions. (JEL J0, J6, H4)     

DOUBLE MAJORS: ONE FOR ME,ONE FOR THE PARENTS?

At least a quarter of college students in the United States graduate with more than one undergraduate major. This article investigates how students choose the composition of their majors conditional on pursuing more than one major, that is, whether the majors that they choose are substitutes or complements. As the students use both their preferences and expectations about the realizations of future major‐specific outcomes when choosing their college majors, I collect innovative data on subjective expectations from a sample of Northwestern University sophomores. Although there is substantial heterogeneity in beliefs across students, they seem to be aware of differences across majors and have sensible beliefs about the outcomes conditional on major. Students believe that their parents are more likely to approve majors associated with high social status and high returns in the labor market. I incorporate the subjective data in a choice model of double majors that also captures the notion of specialization. I find that enjoying studying the coursework and gaining approval of parents are the most important determinants in the choice of majors. The model estimates reject the hypothesis that students major in one field to pursue their own interests and in another for parents' approval. Instead I find that gaining parents' approval and enjoying studying and working in a field of study are outcomes that are important for both majors in a student's major pair. However, I do find that students act strategically in their choice of majors by choosing majors that differ in their chances of completion and difficulty, and in finding a job upon graduation. (JEL D8, I2, J1)     

DOES CORRUPTION ATTENUATE THE EFFECT OF RED TAPE ON EXPORTS?

I use firm ‐level data to examine whether corruption attenuates the adverse effects of red tape on exports. I find that, conditional on there being customs‐related red tape, a firm is better off if it can use bribes to lower the delay that it faces. However, I also find that corruption has a negative overall effect on a firm's decision to export. That is, corruption prevents some firms from entering the export market. These results suggest that to gauge the overall effect of corruption, we must compare its red‐tape attenuating effect with its adverse effect on a firm's decision to export. (JEL F10, F14, K42)     

DOES THE NUMBER OF COUNTRIES IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS MATTER?

Until the 1980s, standard models with two large open economies (i.e., the United States and Europe) provided plausible representations of the world economy. However, with the emergence of many developing countries since the 1990s, this approach no longer seems reasonable. In line with this change to the global economic environment, cross-country output correlations between the United States and other countries have risen. This paper extends the standard two-country model to many countries to show that doing so produces closer cross-country correlations to the data. In particular, based on analytical investigation with a simple model and quantitative analysis with a more general model, I show that the cross-country output correlation rises and the cross-country consumption correlation falls as the number of countries in the two models increases. (JEL F40, F41, F44)     

DOES THE RIVER SPILL OVER? ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC RETURNS TO ATTENDING A RACIALLY DIVERSE COLLEGE

This article evaluates the frequently argued but heretofore little tested hypothesis that increasing minority representation in elite colleges generates tangible benefits for majority‐race students. Using data on graduates of 30 selective universities, we find only weak evidence of any relationship between collegiate racial composition and the postgraduation outcomes of white or Asian students. Moreover, the strongest evidence we uncover suggests that increasing minority representation by lowering admission standards is unlikely to produce benefits and may in fact cause harm by reducing the representation of minority students on less selective campuses. While affirmative action may still be desirable for the benefits it conveys to minority students, these results provide little support for “spillover” effects on majority‐race students. (JEL I2, J15, J24)

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RELIEF FOR THE ENVIRONMENT? THE IMPORTANCE OF AN INCREASINGLY UNIMPORTANT INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Deindustrialization, stagnant real incomes of production workers, and increasing inequality are latter day features of many economies. It is common to assume that such developments pressure policymakers to relax environmental standards. However, when heavily polluting industries become less important economically, their political importance also tends to diminish. Consequently, a regulator may increase the stringency of environmental policies. Like some other studies, we find that declining industrial employment translates into stricter environmental standards. In contrast to previous studies, but consistent with our argument, we find that greater income inequality is associated with policies that promote a cleaner environment. ( JEL Q58, P16, J31, C23)     

DOES ANTIREGIME ACTION UNDER COMMUNIST RULE AFFECT POLITICAL PROTEST AFTER THE FALL?

This article addresses the effects of political protest at a certain time on the actors' protest at a later time. I argue that if there is an effect it is indirect: political protest leads to a change in certain variables that affect participation at a later time. In a first step, these variables are specified, based on previous research. It is assumed that public goods preferences (i.e., political, economic, social discontent, and political alienation), weighted by perceived personal influence, a felt obligation to protest, and integration into protest-promoting networks are the major causes for participation in political protest. In a next step, I propose a theory specifying the effects of protest participation on these variables. The hypotheses are tested by panel data collected in Leipzig (East Germany) referring to the situations of 1989 and 1993. The most important results are that participation in antiregime action in 1989 led to political, social, and economic satisfaction and increased perceived political influence in 1993. There were no effects of participation in the protests in 1989 on accepting felt obligations to protest and on integration into protest-promoting networks in 1993.     

DOES THE SAMARITAN'S DILEMMA MATTER? EVIDENCE FROM U.S. AGRICULTURE

The Samaritan's dilemma posits a downside to charity: recipients may rely on free aid instead of their own efforts. Anecdotally, the expectation of free assistance is thought to be important for decisions about insurance and risky behavior in numerous settings, but reliable empirical evidence is scarce. We estimate whether the Samaritan's dilemma exists in U.S. agriculture, where both private crop insurance and frequent federal disaster assistance are present. We find that bailout expectations are qualitatively and quantitatively important for the insurance decision. Furthermore, aid expectations reduce both expenditure on farm inputs and subsequent crop revenue. (JEL D72, H84, Q18)     

PEER EFFECTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: DOES THE FIELD OF STUDY MATTER?

Does the peer effect vary with the field of study? Using data from a middle‐sized public university located in southern Italy and exploiting the random assignment of first‐year students to college accommodation, we find that roommate peer effects for freshmen enrolled in the hard sciences are positive and significantly larger than for freshmen enrolled in the humanities and social sciences. We present a simple theoretical model which suggests that the uncovered differences between fields in the size of the peer effect could plausibly be generated by between‐field variation in labor market returns, which affect optimal student effort. (JEL I21, Z13, J24)     

SHOULD CITIES GO FOR THE GOLD? THE LONG‐TERM IMPACTS OF HOSTING THE OLYMPICS

The Summer Olympics bring hundreds of thousands of visitors and generate upward of $10 billion in spending for the host city. This large influx of tourism dollars is only part of the overall impact of hosting the Olympic Games. In order to host the visitors and sporting events, cities must make sizable investments in infrastructure such as airports, arenas, and highways. Additionally, the publicity and international exposure of a host city may benefit international trade and capital flows. Proponents argue that this investment will pay off through increased economic growth, but research confirming these claims is lacking. This paper examines whether hosting an Olympiad improves a city's long‐term growth. In order to control for the self‐selection of cities that host Olympic Games, this paper matches Olympic host cities with cities that were finalists for the Olympic Games, but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. A difference‐in‐difference estimator examines post‐Olympic impacts for host cities between 1950 and 2005. Regression results provide no long‐term impacts of hosting an Olympics on two measures of population, real Gross Domestic Product per capita and trade openness. (JEL O18, R11)