A Study on the Causes of Population Urbanization Laging Behind Land Urbanization

Promoting the coordinative development of population urbanization and land urbanization is the key of China’s new-type urbanization.With the subject of analyzing the imbalance of the development of population and land urbanization,using panel data of provinces,we draw the following conclusions:firstly,acceleration of industrialization process causes massive extension of city construction land,but limits"absorb effect" on population urbanization,making population urbanization lag behind land urbanization;secondly local governments relying on land finance result in an inverse association between fiscal revenue and expenditure and urbanization,which aggravates the imbalance of population and land urbanization;thirdly,controlling of household register is the primary cause of the slow development of population urbanization,however,loosening this policy and reforming the institutions will promote the development of urbanization;lastly,lengthening the use periods of farmland is good for the coordinative development of urbanization for its"guarantee effect",but a perfect mechanism of land transfer should be taken for the premise.     

The service and management policy for China＇s floating population

The floating population in an important force in China＇s economic and social development.To better serve and manage this huge population.the Chinese Government has introduced on after another relevant policies for the reform of household registration,     

Breakthrough and New Projects for Reform of Household Registration System

Under the comprehensive deepening reform and promoting new urbanization,China launched a new round of reform of household registration system.Reform has a major breakthrough in five areas:to implement new urbanization strategy of human-centric,to achieve equalization of basic public services gradually,to break up land rights and rural migrants,to provide protection for family migrants,and to increase financial support by governments.But the reform still faces many difficulties,how to determine the conditions settled by city size is difficult to implement effectively,financial transfer payment system reform is facing enormous diffi culties,as well as the size of the urban population is diffi cult to determine etc.     

China’s Urban Population Exceeding Half: Challenges and Responses

China’s urban population exceeded rural population for the first time in Chinese history,reaching 51.27% in 2011.However,the level of urbanization has been exaggerated.If deducting the landless peasants under forced urbanization and migrant workers being not treated equally in the cities,China’ s actual urbanization level stood at 41.6% .There are challenges ahead.For example,an urban social value system has not been established in our society; we don’ t have a clear understanding of the role of cities and how to develop a city; urban management has not prepared well for urbanization development; and there is a long way to go in achieving equal treatment for all of the Urban residents.To cope with the challenges of urbanization,we need to improve the quality of urbanization,correctly understand the role of urbanization and its substance,follow the law of the urban development,and to explore building of an urban culture system.     

Exploration and Establishment of the Chinese Model of Demographic Transition

Exploration of Chinese paths of socialist construction and demographic transition paralleled each other from 1949 to 1978.Mortality rate decreased rapidly during the early 1950s as a result of the public health campaign,which initiated the process of demographic transition in China.Countering the problem of rapid population growth in 1950s,China put forward the theory and the concept of "realizing planned childbearing",and the Chinese model of demographic transition was brewing.Orientation of the Chinese path of demographic transition was reinforced in the 1960s in the context of intensifying contradiction between population and socio-economic development.Finally,China launched the demographic transition by vigorously implementing population control and family planning in the 1970s in the midst of "Cultural Revolution" when the rapidly increasing size of population exerted great pressure on economic development.The Chinese path of demographic transition is determined by the changing characteristics of the times and China’s special national conditions.     

The Difference of Urban and Rural Ageing and Its Transition

In the process of population ageing in China, rural population has an increasingly higher proportion of elderly than the cities;it has been widely cited as one of the characteristics of population ageing in China. This paper compared China with o~her countries and reveals that the phenomenon of higher elderly proportion in rural population than the urban is universal in the world. The research finding shows that the urban-rural inversion of population ageing will not last for a long time. With the socioeconomic development, large-scale rural-urban migration and urbanization will approach to the end;the proportion of the urban elderly will eventually exceed that in the rural. During this process, the transition of urban-rural difference of population ageing will experience four phases.     

The Analysis on the Potential and Trend of the Non-agricultural Transfer of Chinese Rural Labor in the Following 20 Years

The non-agriculturalization of rural labors,which has caught much research attention,is an ecessary phenomenonin the process of urbanization. However, conflicts exsitson some basic issues due to the disagreement on the concept and data of the rural non-agricultural labor force,and there is alack of systemic and quantitative research on the potentials of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the future. By predicting the changing trend of future rural labor force, the demand for agricultural labors, and the trend of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer, this paper estimated the potentials of Chinese rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the next 20 years. It found that the surplus labors in the countryside will decrease annually, and its total number will range between 100 million and 250 million by 2030. Although there is still some increase potential of the stock of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the near future, its increase will approach to zero in 10 years, and rural transferrable surplus labor will also approach to zero in about 5 to 10 years.     

The Major Deviations of Urbanization in China

Urbanization is a major strategic issue in China’s economic transformation. This paper argues that China should coordinate the development of urbanization, industrialization,agricultural modernization,and informationalization,based on analysis of the five major deviations in the process of China’s urbanization.In order to advance the sustainable development of urbanization in China,following measures need to be taken by the government:balancing the development of large,medium-sized and small cities and towns,reforming the government’s fiscal and tax system,encouraging migrant workers and their families to work and live at local cities and towns,providing citizenship to migrant workers,and avoiding the inter-cities cutthroat competition on GDP.     

Urbanization Transition in China:From a Factor-driven to an Innovation--driven Approach

Cheap land and cheap labor have made the most important contribution to the rapid development of China’s urbanization during the past 30 years.However,this pattern of urbanization, which is factor-driven, dependent on land bonus and demographic dividend, is unsustainable.Excessive dependence on cheap land not only leads to inefficient allocation of urban resources, but also has negative impacts on the process of urbanization.Heavy reliance on demographic dividend would no longer be sustainable in the context of changing population structure.There is a need for urbanization reorientation, from a factor--driven to an innovation--driven approach.Innovation--driven urbanization requires industrial upgrading in urban areas so that new industrialization and new urbanization could be in synchronous progress.Smart city construction would facilitate integration of urbanization,industrialization and informatization.     

The Economic Pressure of Population Ageing in China and Its Regulation

By adopting the AECI Index Method proposed by the author and using method of population simulation,this paper analyzes quantitatively the trend,intensity and regulation of the economic pressure of population ageing in China,and compares China with other countries.It draws the following conclusions:(1) China will face great economic pressure due to population ageing in the first half of this century.According to the medium projection,the pressure will increase most rapidly during the period from the middle of 2020s to the end of 2030s,and reach its peak around 2040 when the intensity of the pressure may quadruple that in 2010.(2) The great economic pressure of population ageing may remarkably reduce China’s development momentum.(3) To ease the pressure,we should rely mainly on economic measures,supplemented by population control measures.(4) To gradually liberalize the prevailing birth control policy on the premise of sticking to the state policy of family planning is a rational approach to regulate the economic pressure of population ageing in China.On the one hand,this can ease the possible economic pressure of ageing in the future,and on the other hand,it can control the pressure of population size within an endurable limit.     

China to See Three Population Peaks This Century

China will witness the advent of three population peakings in the 2100s: working population, total population and aging population, according to the United Nations. The fifth census taken in 2000 showed that of the total population, the working-age group (15-64) took up 70.15%. This will be the first group to peak. By the 2030s, China’s total population will top 1.5 billion and peak at 1.6 billion by 2040s, according to a UN estimate made in 1998. China is also becoming the fastest-growin…     

On Long-term Balanced Development of National Defense Population

This article explores population long-term balanced development for national defense according to the strategic goals set at the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Three major issues are discussed. Firstly, the concept and connotation of the long-term equilibrium development of national defense population are defi ned, in which population long-term equilibrium is equal to population "longterm safety"including quality balance, quantity balance and population structure equilibrium. And "quantity equilibrium"needs to be considered in both absolute and relative terms. Secondly, the"non-equilibrium"situation of national defense population is examined from the perspective of quality and quantity. Thirdly, policy suggestions in promoting the national defense population equilibrium are proposed with regard to population regulation, human resource development and social security.     

Basic Situation of Chinese Flowing Population Development

According to the study organized by National Population and Family Planning Commission of China, in the future, Chinese population migration will continue to increase massively and steadily, while showing a tendency of new alternation.     

Sustainability Key for Future Development in China

Sustainable development with Chinese characteristics is key for China抯 future development. This is a consensus reached by environmentalists both at home and abroad who attended the fifth session of the second meeting of the Committee on International Cooperation in Environment and Development in China held in October, 2001 in Beijing. Since the establishment of the committee in 1992, China has made great efforts to improve its policies related to sustainable development. Environment…     

Financial Development and Risk Prevention： from the Perspective of Population

To discuss the current and future financial development and risk prevention, popu]ation as a long-term, systematic, and irreversible factor, should be taken into careful consideration. As for China, we should pay particular attention to the situation of rapid ageing and urbanization in the next 20 years, which would result in profound influence on this issue. To achieve coordinated development of population, resources and the environment,     

Calculation on energy-related CO2 emissions in China（2010～2050）

On the basis of MARKAL-MACRO model of"Energy-Economy-Environment"system and Keyfitz model of demography,energy demand in China in the future was calculated.Three scenarios were put forward taking into account of energy efficiency, energy structure and restriction of climate change.CO2 Emissions in China will reach peak value 11.85 Gt in 2042 in reference scenario;10.75 Gt in 2036 in optimized scenario;and 9.47 Gt in 2031 in restriction scenario of climate change. Compare with reference scenario, carbon emissions in restriction scenario of climate change will decline by 2.38 Gt,and peak time will be llyears earlier.With the development of urbanization and industrialization,carbon emissions from electric power, cement,steel will rise gradually then go down;but emissions from traffic will go up continuously because of the increase of vehicle fleet.     

China’s Population towards Urbanization

The trends of population urbanization have been received increasing attention in the 21st century.The paper argues that population movement and migration has been over fertility and mortality and becomes the predominating driving force on demographic dynamics in China. Facing an entirely new demographic situation,population urbanization should be favorably welcomed.Taking Beijing and Germany as cases,it examines the city size issue from an urban system perspective,and argues that urban functions should be properly defined within an urban system.We should recognize the importance of urbanization to modernization and removing the factors which may negatively affect the urbanization process,so as to promote healthy development of urbanization in China.     

National Floating Population Reached 200 Million,Equalization of Family Planning Public Services in 49 Pilot Cities

The main characters of today’s floating population have changed. Following the progress of urbanization,China is experiencing the greatest migration of floating population in history. By 2010,the floating population had reached 221 million,and the Post- 80s generation became the majority.How to promote social integration for the floating population turned to be an issue needed to be considered. On 28 Februaryist March,National Population and Family Planning Commission held the meeting of"strengthening and innovating in service ma-     

The Generality and Particularity of Labor Migration in China

Labor migration among regions and between the urban-rural has been a popular research topic in labor economics,development economics, industrial economics and regional economics.The world economy development history proves that such labor migration is inevitable economic phenomenon in the process of economic development.However,there are some keys to better understand China’s labor migration,such as what are the characteristics of China’s labor migration? What differences are there in China’s labor migration compared with that of the development countries and other developing countries? What are the connotational and theoretical implications of China’s labor migration? These are the core questions of this paper.Understanding these questions will patch up the shortages in the existing researches of the field,lay solid foundation and provide valuable reference for the economic effects, the welfare effects of China’s labor migration and associated institutional arrangements and macroeconomic policies.     

An Empirical Study on the Laddering Migration of China’s Floating Population

Using data collected by Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China in 2009 in Chaoyang district of Beijing, Dongguan city of Guangdong province and Zhuji city of Zhejiang province, this paper does an empirical study on the laddering migration of China’s floating population. The findings indicate that floating population’s geographical laddering migration, occupational laddering migration and family laddering migration exist in the process of migration. Geographical laddering migration is influenced by demographic characteristics, migration experience and pathfinder effect of parents. Occupational laddering migration is influenced by migration experience, stability of occupation and social interaction with local residents in destination. Family laddering migration is influenced by family member’s characteristics, area of arable land, migration experience and the number of relatives in destination.