货币政策对M2的动态效应时滞分析及危机效应测算

科学测算金融危机期间已出台货币政策对货币供应量M2的效应时滞和贡献程度具有一定的现实价值。文章利用Markov状态转换及HP滤波模型识别不同货币政策状态的时间区间;利用多项式滞后分布模型分析政策工具变量对货币供应量影响的滞后效应,并以此为先验信息,建立了货币政策的Bayesian-PDLS动态效应分布模型,对金融危机期间已出台的货币政策效果进行了实际测算。主要结果表明:(1)外汇储备为M2的决定性因素,存款准备金率为M2主要的限制性因素;(2)货币政策变量M2总体对利率的弹性变化呈"U"型分布;在紧缩型情况下M2对利率的弹性变化呈"W"型分布;在扩张情形下M2对利率的弹性变化呈"v"型分布。     

新冠状病毒肺炎、人口迁移与疫情扩散防控

2019年出现的新型冠状病毒肺炎,伴随着春运的人口大迁徙,短时间内在全国蔓延开来,给疫情防控带来诸多挑战。基于新型冠状病毒传播的理论进行解析后发现,易感人群、感染人群以及传播介质的结合是影响感染人数的重要通道,其中感染人群的人口迁移是促发疫情扩散的关键,从经验上也求证了上述推断,并进一步分析了影响人口迁移的因素。基于理论分析和经验研究,从人口迁移变量来看,该如何防控呢?针对湖北人迁移的目的地,要重点防控那些比疫情地经济条件好的地区,比如广东和浙江,其是湖北外出的首选和次选地;针对迁移湖北的来源地,要重点防控那些人口较多的、与湖北毗邻且与湖北交通极其便利的省份,其是湖北外地人中的主要来源地,比如河南和湖南。除降低与疫情地相关的人口迁移变量外,理论分析还发现,减少易感人群和感染人群的接触,提高医护水平,对易感人群进行接种也能抑制疫情的扩散。     

Aristotle and management

Aristotle's writings are scrutinized from the viewpoint of management. The influence that Aristotle has had on research in general extends to management research as well. In his teleological thinking, in his emphasis on action, choice and responsibility and in his treatises on virtue and constitutions, Aristotle presents views that are relevant to management practice. His treatise on household-management comes nearest to what is today called management. Aristotle's conception of the tasks of management is not contradictory to modern formulations of management functions. Although there is not enough evidence to show that Aristotle wrote deliberately about it his writings are relevant to what we now call management.     

Strategic planning and research and development—Can we integrate them?

The main problem affecting the R & D function has always been caused by its lack of integration with the enterprise. Such a problem makes it difficult to pass from invention to innovation—that is, to turn the invention into processes and products to be exchanged on the market. The author points out the main social and organizational problems which prevent R & D from entering the ‘circulatory system’ of the enterprise. The identification of such problems is important in order to set up and to implement innovative strategies. This is the first of two articles by Professor Petroni on this subject. The second article will appear in April 1983.     

Production technology and management in planned and market economies

This paper discusses how technological innovation takes place in manufacturing industry, and especially in the engineering sector, contrasting in particular the effects of the Western market economy, and the East European planned economy. The relative lack of cross-influence between formal scientific research and actual industrial innovation practice in this area is first discussed. Comparative studies of engineering practice in planned and market economies are described which point to the important influence of the economic environment on innovation practice in the factory's design office, and on the shop-floor. The East European Soviet Type Economy is seen to have features which in the light of recent Western empirical studies into industrial innovation, must hamper this process. In particular it is proposed that its relative economic and social rigidity has an important restricting influence on the actual process of innovation in the factory.     

Information technology and productivity: Myths and realities

In the absence of empirical research, media and government publicity have created false expectations and unnecessary anxieties about the effects of new technology. It is comparatively easy to show how information technology can produce productivity gains and job losses in specific areas. But it is not realistic to extrapolate ‘local’ effects to an organization as a whole, or to the economy. The argument of this paper is that it is necessary to consider the implications of technical change on three ‘levels of effect’—operating, organizational and strategic—in order to make a comprehensive assessment. Management, however, appear to concentrate on operating criteria, ignore the consequences of organizational decisions, and do not explore the strategic opportunities of the new technology. The potential strategic advantages may thus not be achieved.     

Mixed Unemployment and Differentiated Policies

ABSTRACT: The works related to the disequilibrium theory often show that situations of classical unemployment and of Keynesian unemployment coexist on a long-term basis. The following study deals with a theoretical model of mixed unemployment reflecting this coexistence. In this model, prices are assumed to be flexible upward, but not downward. Hence, classical unemployment leads to inflation, without quantitative rationing on demand, which is closer to reality. The study analyses the asymmetric relations between the classical and the Keynesian sectors as well as the resulting implications for economic policy. What comes out is that differentiated policies always have a stronger impact than aggregate policies. The highest level of efficiency is obtained by stimulating the supply of firms set in the classical situation, provided that one acts on the non-wage determinants of supply in order not to further depress the outlets for firms set in the Keynesian situation.     

Micro-Flexibility and Macro-Rigidity: Some Notes on Expectations and the Dynamics of Aggregate Supply

ABSTRACT: The high macro supply elasticity experienced by industrialised countries during the second post-war boom is not explainable as the aggregate effect of current variations of companies’output in response to current variations of demand. A firm cannot adapt rapidly its output to higher demand unless it has decided fairly in advance to expand its productive capacity. Macro elasticity depends thus on the existence of ex ante excess capacity, built on the basis of expectations. The post-war boom is thus explained in terms of a virtuous sequence expectations-decisions-events. This approach helps in understanding the inversion of the expansionary phase to one of stag-flation, the failure of Keynesian policies and the subsequent industrial restructuring which gave rise to the present employment squeeze. Flexibility is something which depends on the relationships between individual expectations and decisions and their systemic results; the presently pursued micro-flexibility is at high risk of producing increasing macro-rigidity.     

基于高阶矩波动和Copula函数的相依性模型及其应用

本文提出了基于高阶矩波动的相依结构模型:Copula-NAGARCHSK-M模型。考虑资产的时变条件方差风险、条件偏度风险和条件峰度风险对边缘分布的影响,应用模型研究了上证综指和深证成指对数收益率之间、条件方差之间、条件偏度之间和条件峰度之间的相依结构。发现两股票市场的指数对数收益率之间、条件方差之间和条件峰度之间有相似的相依结构,而条件偏度之间的相依结构则是负方向的相似。     

The recent literature on public leadership: Reviewed and considered

The purpose of the article is to review the academic literature on public leadership. The discussion is generally confined to books and articles in which leadership in the public realm is explicitly at the center of the discussion; and it is limited to materials published in 1999 and 2000. The literature on leadership is divided into five groups: individuals, groups/organizations, nations, transnational arrangements, and cross-cutting themes (diversity, ethics, mass movements). The article concludes by noting that although the literature on public leadership, at least as generated by contemporary academicians, remains meager, it is growing in richness and diversity. In fact, this review demonstrates that scholars, teachers, and practitioners have a range of relevant materials from which to draw information and ideas. An enormous amount of work remains to be done before the literature on public leadership reaches a critical mass. But some good work is being accomplished in a field that is clearly expanding, and that is of increasing interest to constituencies both within and outside academia.     

Union Wage Setting,Employment and Investment: a Survey of Theory and Empirical Evidence

Abstract. This paper provides a survey of recent theoretical and empirical research on union wage setting, employment and investment. The basic models of union wage setting and employment are presented in a unified framework. The distinction between insiders and outsiders is introduced as an extension of the basic models. Empirical evidence on union preferences and on the performance of the various models is accessibly ordered. Finally, attention is paid to the effects of strategic behaviour between union and firm on wages, employment and investment.     

信息披露与IPO首日回报率

考虑IPO股票长期持有收益对投资者决策的影响,将单期决策的效用函数拓展为多期决策的效用函数,在理性预期模型框架下,以我国新股发行市场微观结构为背景建立理论模型,对信息披露影响IPO首日回报率的微观作用机制提供了一种理论解释。模型表明：信息披露与IPO首日回报率负相关,披露的信息即公共信息降低了二级市场定价对一级市场定价的偏离程度,从而对IPO首日回报率产生负向影响。以2009年6月至2016年11月在深圳主板上市交易的593家IPO公司为样本对模型进行了实证检验,实证结论支持理论模型结论。本文的研究不仅在研究视角、方法上丰富了IPO首日回报率的研究文献,而且可以为监管者提供相关的决策建议。     

Consolidation and fragmentation in environmental scanning: A review and research agenda

Environmental scanning is a broadly defined concept, having first received attention from scholars in the late 1960s. Over the years a number of similar and overlapping constructs have emerged in management literature. The aim of this study, via a systematic review and thematic analysis of relevant empirical research, is to consolidate foundation environmental scanning knowledge, demonstrate how scanning research has developed and fragmented over time, and propose an agenda for future research. The first contribution of our review is a new typology of environmental scanning research made up of five discrete research views, which provides a more comprehensive and contemporary overview of the field than previous studies. The second is a proposed agenda for future research that explicitly acknowledges the role of technology, an area that is presently underdeveloped in foundation scanning literature. The third contribution is to signpost future directions for research on scanning and organisational performance using a number of theoretical perspectives. The overall outcome of our review is to move scanning research on from increasingly incremental contributions concerned with context to a place where the changing role of technology and the mechanisms through which environmental scanning contributes to competitive advantage can be more thoroughly understood.     

Trade and Labour Markets: Vertical and Regional Differentiation in Italy

The labour market misfortunes of the less skilled and rapid growth of international trade in manufactured goods with less advanced countries are linked by the paradoxical observation that trade theorists are in the forefront of those denying the importance of trade in income distribution. This paper analyses this conclusion by stressing the importance of vertical differentiation of trade flows and regional differentiation of skills in order to identify labour market effects of trade integration. Vertical and regional differentiation in trade and labour markets are analysed for a country, Italy, where these two elements seem to play a crucial role. The results show a likely displacement effect on unskilled labour due to trade flows with less advanced countries. Given the characteristics of Italian trade and labour markets, a stronger trade‐induced displacement effect on demand for unskilled labour takes place in the North of the country. Thus the vertical differentiation in Italian intra‐industry trade is a warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets if product heterogeneity is not adequately considered. The regional differentiation of skill intensity is another warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets whenever cross‐sectoral effects and the change in relative specialization are not adequately considered.     

Educational Landscapes and Urban Development. Contextual and Spatial Interfaces and Linkages

In the broad sociopolitical discussion on education quality within the last decade, it has become apparent that education is gaining importance for urban development, as well as space and the urban context are important dimensions of education. This becomes particularly evident in concepts for local educational landscapes (Ger. Bildungslandschaften). The young field of research on educational landscapes is currently lacking empirical research from spatial and planning sciences. In the paper, the current state of scientific research on educational landscapes in Germany and Europe and first insights to contextual and spatial interfaces and linkages between education and urban development in general are presented.     

Interorganizational Collaborative Forecasting and Replenishment Systems and Supply Chain Implications

Collaborative Forecasting and Replenishment (CFAR) is a new interorganizational system that enables retailers and manufacturers to forecast demand and schedule production jointly. The capabilities of CFAR exceed those of the traditional EDI because CFAR allows exchange of complex decision support models and manufacturer/retailer strategies. The proponents of CFAR claim that the fastest way for retailers and manufacturers to slash inventory costs and product shortages is by coordinating their decisions. The impact of CFAR on the supply chain using a model consisting of a manufacturer selling its product through two independent identical retailers is analyzed. The model assumes that the manufacturer doesn't face capacity constraints, the demand is stationary, and retailer prices are constant over time; the shortages are backordered at the manufacturer and retailers to isolate the effects of information sharing in CFAR. The most significant findings relate to the increase in the cost incurred by the nonparticipant in CFAR, the increase in the manufacturer's cost of serving the nonparticipant if the participant can obtain delivery guarantees in return for demand information sharing, and the incentives of the players to move towards universal retailer participation in CFAR. The findings are explained using the risk structure faced by the players in the supply chain. The managerial implications of the impact of CFAR on the supply chain structure are also discussed.     

考虑保鲜努力与数量/质量弹性的农产品三级供应链协调优化

以供应具有季节性的农产品为研究对象,研究了由农户-第三方物流供应商（TPLP）-零售商组成的三级供应链协调问题。将农产品的数量和质量损耗均视为TPLP保鲜努力的内生变量,分别建立了分散与集中决策模式下的动态博弈模型。分析表明分散决策模式下供应链各成员的决策会导致产品销售量和销售价格扭曲,严重影响供应链绩效。针对三级供应链中的两个交易过程,并基于对系统中相关决策变量的变化及影响因素分析,分别设计了成本分担和收益共享协调契约,并论证了在一定条件下该组合协调机制可以显著扩大农产品的销售量,实现供应链各成员收益的帕累托改进。最后,通过算例验证了文章结论,并分析了努力水平对不同农产品质量和数量损耗的改善程度（数量/质量弹性）对农产品三级供应链决策及协调效果的影响。     

中小呼叫中心月度排班优化模型与算法

国内中小呼叫中心制定坐席人员月度排班表时,通常考虑劳动法规合同约束和体现企业自身用工管理诉求。构建坐席人员月度排班优化问题的二次整数规划模型。鉴于问题模型难解性,依据调研企业需求和模型逻辑结构分析,把问题分解成三个子问题。通过构建整数规划模型和提出启发式算法来求出子问题解,从而生成排班问题优化解。问题实例计算表明,模型算法能够有效控制人力成本和兼顾员工同班次管理目标。与周排班方法比较,该方法能够充分体现月度排班人力灵活性来实现人力优化配置。     

探索式创新、利用式创新与绩效:战略和环境的影响

本文基于397家中国企业的样本数据,对探索式创新、利用式创新与企业绩效之间的关系进行了实证研究,着重考察了探索式创新、利用式创新的内部匹配关系以及这两类创新行为与企业战略和环境的外部匹配关系。结果表明,两类创新行为分别对企业绩效有直接的正向影响,两类创新行为之间的内部匹配对绩效无显著影响,两类创新行为与企业战略和环境竞争性的外部匹配关系对绩效有显著影响。