Trade and Labour Markets: Vertical and Regional Differentiation in Italy

The labour market misfortunes of the less skilled and rapid growth of international trade in manufactured goods with less advanced countries are linked by the paradoxical observation that trade theorists are in the forefront of those denying the importance of trade in income distribution. This paper analyses this conclusion by stressing the importance of vertical differentiation of trade flows and regional differentiation of skills in order to identify labour market effects of trade integration. Vertical and regional differentiation in trade and labour markets are analysed for a country, Italy, where these two elements seem to play a crucial role. The results show a likely displacement effect on unskilled labour due to trade flows with less advanced countries. Given the characteristics of Italian trade and labour markets, a stronger trade‐induced displacement effect on demand for unskilled labour takes place in the North of the country. Thus the vertical differentiation in Italian intra‐industry trade is a warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets if product heterogeneity is not adequately considered. The regional differentiation of skill intensity is another warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets whenever cross‐sectoral effects and the change in relative specialization are not adequately considered.     

Uncertainty,Flexibility Gap and Labour Demand in the Italian Economy

In this paper we analyse the effects of changes in the degree of uncertainty of the economic system and in the “flexibility gap”, deriving from the combined evolution of the degrees of uncertainty and flexibility of the economic system (in particular, labour market flexibility), on regular and irregular labour demand. On the basis of a simple qualitative model, we give a partial interpretation of some stylized facts of the Italian economy during the last decades. We argue that the low uncertainty and flexibility gap in the 1950s and 1960s, their remarkable increases in the 1970s, their inadequate reduction in the 1980s and the new increase of uncertainty and flexibility gap in the first half of the 1990s, have had a considerable influence on the quantity and quality of the “investment in employment” of Italian economy. The higher degree of uncertainty and the inadequate degree of flexibility of the Italian economic system are likely to have contributed towards the lower regular employment rate, compared to the main industrialized countries, and to high irregular employment. An adequate economic policy for reducing the uncertainty of the economic system together with a structural economic policy for increasing the flexibility of the economic system (in particular, an active labour policy for increasing the flexibility of the labour market), would be likely to produce positive effects on the quantity and quality of labour demand, contributing towards reducing unemployment.     

Early Labour Market Returns to College Subject

Abstract. We estimate early labour market outcomes of Italian university graduates across college subjects. We devote great attention to endogenous selection issues using alternative methods to control for potential self‐selection associated with the choice of the degree subject in order to unravel the causal link between college major and subsequent outcomes in the labour market. Our results suggest that ‘quantitative’ fields (i.e. Sciences, Engineering, and Economics) increase not only the speed of transition into the first job and employment probability but also early earnings, conditional on employment.     

Is Imperfect Competition in the Product Market Relevant for Labour Markets?

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasises the importance of imperfect competition in the product market for labour market outcomes. We investigate one aspect of this issue by specifying a dynamic labour demand model where firms face different degrees of competition in the product market and test its predictions for 299 US manufacturing industries. We find that the long-run equilibrium level of industry employment as well as the speed of labour demand adjustment decreases with market power. Our results imply that imperfect competition in the product market explains part of the observed labour market rigidities and also sheds new light on two “stylized facts” in industrial organisation, the observation of procyclical movements in productivity and price–cost margins in concentrated industries.     

Local Banks Efficiency and Employment

Abstract. This work analyses the links between credit and labour markets highlighting the influence of credit market inefficiencies on employment. We argue that if banks are not efficient in monitoring the borrowers in the presence of asymmetric information, credit market imperfections have real effects. We estimate dynamic equations using system generalized method of moments (GMM) for bank loans and employment on panel data for Italian firms. The system GMM estimates indicate that the impact of credit market on employment is higher where the local financial market is less developed, asymmetric information is widespread, bank managers are less efficient in assessing the firms' solvency and do not use appropriate methods to evaluate the borrowers' payback capacity.     

Aspects of Relative Wage Flexibility in Greece

Abstract. Flexibility in relative wages can be either competitive or non-competitive. In Greece, in the period 1966–1988, wage and employment regulation as well as developments in industrial relations did not favour competitive flexibility and provided an environment conducive to non-competitive flexibility. With the noticeable exception of the period 1967–74, during which competitive forces emerged and played a dominant role, in 1966–88 the manufacturing labour market operated under the influence of industry-specific factors. Non-competitive flexibility associated with industry-specific changes in productivity in the long run and industry-specific rates of strike activity in the short run, influenced manufacturing relative wages. Furthermore, in 1977–88, the asymmetric response of industry wages to changes in industry productivity hindered employment growth.     

Job Tenure,Labour Mobility and Wage Profiles

Abstract. The features and the length of the attachment of workers to firms represent a central aspect of the labour relationship. The length of service is an important determinant of wages and of non-pecuniary benefits; it affects internal mobility in the firm, and insulates workers with long job tenure from unemployment. In this paper it is argued that the traditional “spot” labour market Characterization is difficult to reconcile with the existence of long term employment relationships. A number of alternative theories which predict the existence of an employer-worker attachment proposed, and their implications discussed. The relevance of long term employment relationships is then tested using micro-data for the Italian manufacturing industry. An appropriate methodology for the analysis of the duration of employment is developed. and separate “job tenure” equations for white and blue collar workers are estimated. A higher educational attainment - ceteris paribus- appears to increase the probability of a job separation; conversely, a higher working experience, previous to the current job, tends to reduce it. The effect of firm size is negative, as larger organizations seem to favour longer employment spells. Outside opportunities show a strong positive effect on the probability of separation. Finally, conditional on the current wage, the probability of leaving the job increases with the length of time worked. However, when the unconditional outcome is considered, separation decline with tenure; in this case. it is argued, the wage effect more than outweighs the conditional effect. This result is consistent with the predictions of both “specific” human capital and job matching theories.     

The Dark,and Independent,Side of the Italian Labour Market

Abstract. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the two faces of the Italian labour market, the dark and the regular. Results from ‘exhaustive’ VAR/VEC models suggest that there are no connections (causal relationships, feedback, contemporaneous correlation) between them. In this sense, we could correctly refer to undeclared work as an ‘independent’ side of the market. I interpret these results as providing empirical support for the ineffectiveness of labour policies in converting black economy employment into regular over the last two decades.     

A Stock-Flow Model to Analyse and Forecast Labour Market Variables

ABSTRACT: In confronting problems of employment and unemployment, students of the labour market, and economists in general have focused mainly on the determination of the level of such variables. Much less attention has been paid to such questions as: how many persons have entered the area of employment and the labour force in various time periods, and how many have exited; their sex and age distribution; and the determinants of the level and structure of flows amongst the various labour market conditions. Yet it appears superfluous to underscore the relevance of such questions. To illustrate, suffice it to recall that in Italy, the present level of employment is essentially the same today as it was in 1961‘; but this has not prevented whole generations of young people from 'stably’entering the employment area, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty in different periods. As for the numerous statistical surveys of labour market flows in a range of countries, and as for the works of job search theorists², it should be observed that such surveys and analyses essentially concern conjunctural phenomena. Consequently, these authors have paid no attention to the distinction between short-run turnover and generational turnover, or to the extremely singular characteristics of the statistical data on flows. An attempt to construct labour market models that present an integrated version of the 'structural’aspects of the market in terms of stock and flows is therefore lacking. The present study sets forth various objectives and is divided into two parts. In the first, an analysis of several controversial terminological aspects of the concepts of stock and flow is presented, and an attempt is made to point out those theoretical structures which have been responsible for the long-prevailing neglect of the labour market flows, particularly long-run flows. Then the problem of defining the concepts of short-run and generational turnover will be confronted in light of an analysis of the statistical methods used in the surveys; finally, a methodology for measuring generational flows is proposed. In the second part of the paper a model based on generational flows, as previously defined, will be presented together with a computational procedure capable to produce long run estimates of alternative scenarios of labour demand and supply and of the structure of employment by sex and age. A brief summary of some of the empirical results obtained applying our model and forecasting procedure to the Italian labour market will also be discussed in the final part of the paper.     

How Much Does Hiring and Firing Cost? Survey Evidence from a Sample of Italian Firms

We analyse the Italian labour market, which is typically considered to be highly regulated. We focus on the costs imposed on firms by the institutional environment in which they operate, and on the adjustment strategies that they pursue as a result. We have followed two complementary approaches: the analysis of the development of the laws relating to hiring and firing, together with a set of interviews of 61 manufacturing firms. This also allows us to quantify the extent of turnover costs on the total labour costs. Hiring costs, which include recruiting and training, range between 2.0 and 2.6 months of labour costs; firing costs range from less than half a monthly labour cost to 20 months of labour costs in cases of conflict.     

Labour Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany: Challenges and Concepts

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how German labour policy, both employment policy and active labour market policies, has developed between 1974 and 1987. Government intervention for full employment in a welfare state, a cooperative system of industrial relations, an active labour market policy, and a comparatively efficient system of vocational and adult education did not prevent the loss of full employment in 1974. But persistent labour market slack until today has not fundamentally changed the climate of relative political and social calm. The basic concepts, programmes and specific measures of labour policies pursued in the FRG are surveyed with special reference to their costs and effects on employment and the structure of unemployment. The challenges to labour policy stem from three complete business cycles around a slightly falling trend in employment and the bad prospectives of the German labour market until the year 2000. Four major measures of labour market policy now reduce registered unemployment by about 400,000 in the mid 1980s. Total costs of unemployment amounting to 57 billion DM per year offer financial alternatives to create jobs and to reduce working hours. Finally, actual proposals under discussion in Germany are examined in order to combat unemployment in a determined commitment to full employment immediately.     

Labour Flows as Determinants of the Wage–Price Spiral: An Empirical Analysis for The Netherlands

This study presents an empirical analysis of the influence of labour market flows on wage and price formation. A system of wage, price and employment equations after Nickell (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 49: 103–128, 1987) is estimated, including labour flows as indicators of labour market tightness in the wage equation. An impulse response analysis using this system shows how changes in the flow of layoffs (flow from employment to unemployment) may be the basis of short‐run Phillips curve effects in The Netherlands     

Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour: An Application of a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis to UK Aggregate Wage Data

ABSTRACT The first part of the paper considers a behavioural model of trade unionism. Wages and employment are characterized as the outcome of a process by which the union maximizes an objective function containing wages and employment as arguments, and is constrained by a trade-off between these two variables as represented by the firm's labour demand function. In the second part, the model's equilibrium predictions for wages are estimated in the framework of a multivariate error correction model and tested for cointegration with data from Britain's manufacturing sector from 1967 to 1986.     

Dynamics of Female Employment and Youth Unemployment in Italy

ABSTRACT: The authors, in this article, consider the possibility of how the peak in the birth rate during the 60s could have affected the present unemployment situation. First of all the hypothesis put forward by various sources that the baby boom is the principle cause of unemployment is examined, together with how plausible this explanation is. Then some data relevant to birth rates and the subsequent employment levels in various countries is presented, and finally, a more detailed analysis of the Italian situation is given, both with regard to the baby boom and the most recent employment statistics for the different Italian areas. The authors also take a close look at the female labour market and its development over the past years, and how these figures would appear to confute the baby boom as being the sole cause responsible for present day unemployment levels.     

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

Abstract. This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P‐VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P‐VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.     

Do Interactions between Finance and Labour Market Institutions Affect the Income Distribution?

This article analyses the linkages between financial development, labour market institutions and market income inequality for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over the 1980 to 2012 period. With the help of a dynamic panel data model with an interacted term, one crucial contribution of this article is to analyse the interacted impact of labour market institutions (i.e. union density and employment protection legislation) on the one hand and financial development on the other hand on the income distribution. Our results indicate that changes in the financial/credit and labour market regulation affect the income distribution. Estimates of the marginal effects show that by increasing labour market regulation one also weakens the impact of the flexibilization in the financial/credit market on the increase in income inequality.     

An Integrated Accounting for Firms,Job Positions and Employment

ABSTRACT: Using flow analyses for the various population areas and the social accounting that may be developed using the data from these analyses, enables us to better comprehend labour market dynamics. This comprehension is taken a step further if we interrelate this accounting system to that of the productive system. This paper deals with the more limited task of formulating an integrated accounting system for firms, job positions and employment, in order to clarify the concepts of an individual‘s stay in the employment area — both on a stay-by-stay basis and throughout the course of his or her entire working life — and that of mobility. The paper similarly touches on problems found in measuring flows, discusses the concept of definitive exit and its analytical relevance, and finally examines some recent Italian contributions on the topics of birth and death rates amongst firms and employment flows.     

Labour Surplus,Worker Rights and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Asia and Latin America

How do labour market conditions, trade union rights and job security regulations affect labour productivity? This paper is the first attempt at an empirical analysis of this important question for a large sample of Asian and Latin American countries. We provide new estimates of the rates of surplus labour in 20 countries, as well as detailed tables summarizing their key regulations governing certain aspects of union activity and layoffs. Then we exploit these and other data in an econometric analysis of intercountry differentials in the growth rate of labour productivity in manufacturing during the 1980s. Among the principal results, we find that, while all else remains the same, productivity growth rates are significantly higher in countries with relatively larger labour surpluses, the effects of excess of labour on productivity growth are affected by the strength or weakness of union rights. We also find that the impacts of union rights and job security protections on productivity trends may be either positive or negative, depending on the labour market situation.     

Emigration and Immigration in Italy: Recent Trends

ABSTRACT: During the eighties Italy has evolved into being a receiver of immigration. However, the existence of large Italian communities abroad, and the persistence of exit migratory flows (although amply compensated by re-entry flows) show that the connotation of Italy as a country of emigration still persists. This paper points out the differing composition of present immigration flows to Italy compared to those of Italian migratory flows towards the more industrially advanced European countries over the past decades. The labour forces that constitute these present day immigration flows often possess medium to high educational qualifications, and are more frequently absorbed into the tertiary and agricultural markets, rather than the industrial sector. These immigrants rarely have regular, unionized occupations, and satisfy a demand for precarious, unstable labour which is in expansion in Italy, as in other countries. Furthermore, these immigration flows are directed not only towards those regions with high employment rates, but also to those with high unemployment rates. Thus, the implications are that the character of present day emigration can only be clearly understood by taking into account the highly segmented aspect of the labour market.     

Youth Unemployment and Opportunities in the Labour Market – The Myth of Lifelong Hysteresis

This paper examines whether the level of risk of unemployment for recently trained youths in the labour market has lasting effects upon their employment opportunities: will a cohort that enters the labour market during a period of high unemployment have a permanently higher rate of unemployment than one that joins the labour market during a period of low unemployment? The connection between occupational choice and employment status after graduation is also examined The analysis encompasses teachers, engineers and unskilled workers. The conclusion is that troughs and highs in the labour market have a significant but not necessarily permanent effect upon unemployment and placement in different industries.