Matching With (Branch‐of‐Choice) Contracts at the United States Military Academy

Branch selection is a key decision in a cadet's military career. Cadets at USMA can increase their branch priorities at a fraction of slots by extending their service agreement. This real‐life matching problem fills an important gap in the market design literature, providing strong empirical legitimacy to a series of elegant theoretical works on matching with contracts. Although priorities fail a key substitutes condition, the agent‐optimal stable mechanism is well defined, and in contrast to the current USMA mechanism it is fair, stable, strategy‐proof, and respects improvements in cadet priorities. Adoption of this mechanism benefits cadets and the Army. This new application shows that the matching with contracts model is practically relevant beyond traditional domains that satisfy the substitutes condition.     

Bubbles and Self‐Enforcing Debt

We characterize equilibria with endogenous debt constraints for a general equilibrium economy with limited commitment in which the only consequence of default is losing the ability to borrow in future periods. First, we show that equilibrium debt limits must satisfy a simple condition that allows agents to exactly roll over existing debt period by period. Second, we provide an equivalence result, whereby the resulting set of equilibrium allocations with self‐enforcing private debt is equivalent to the allocations that are sustained with unbacked public debt or rational bubbles. In contrast to the classic result by Bulow and Rogoff (1989a), positive levels of debt are sustainable in our environment because the interest rate is sufficiently low to provide repayment incentives.     

Timing and Self‐Control

The standard dual‐self model of self‐control, with a shorter‐run self who cares only about the current period, is excessively sensitive to the timing of decisions and to the interpolation of additional “no‐action” time periods in between the dates when decisions are made. We show that when the shorter‐run self is not completely myopic, this excess sensitivity goes away. To accommodate the combination of short time periods and convex costs of self‐control, we introduce a cognitive resource variable that tracks how the control cost depends on the self‐control that has been used in the recent past. We consider models with both linear and convex control costs, illustrating the theory through a series of examples. We examine when opportunities to consume will be avoided or delayed, and we consider the way in which the marginal interest declines with delay.     

Strongly Consistent Self‐Confirming Equilibrium

Fudenberg and Levine (1993a) introduced the notion of self‐confirming equilibrium, which is generally less restrictive than Nash equilibrium. Fudenberg and Levine also defined a concept of consistency, and claimed in their Theorem 4 that with consistency and other conditions on beliefs, a self‐confirming equilibrium has a Nash equilibrium outcome. We provide a counterexample that disproves Theorem 4 and prove an alternative by replacing consistency with a more restrictive concept, which we call strong consistency. In games with observed deviators, self‐confirming equilibria are strongly consistent self‐confirming equilibria. Hence, our alternative theorem ensures that despite the counterexample, the corollary of Theorem 4 is still valid.     

Complexity and Self‐Sustainment in Disaster Response Supply Chains

Governmental organizations play a major role in disaster relief operations. Supply chains set up to respond to disasters differ dramatically in many dimensions that affect the cost of relief efforts. One factor that has been described recently is self‐sustainment, which occurs when supplies consumed by intermediate stages of a supply chain must be provided via the chain itself because they are not locally available. This article applies the concept of self‐sustainment to response supply chains. A mathematical model of a self‐sustaining response supply chain is developed. Analysis of this model yields insights about the relationships and interactions among self‐sustainment, speed of disaster onset, dispersion of impact, and the cost of the relief efforts.     

Self‐Control and the Theory of Consumption

To study the behavior of agents who are susceptible to temptation in infinite horizon consumption problems under uncertainty, we define and characterize dynamic self‐control (DSC) preferences. DSC preferences are recursive and separable. In economies with DSC agents, equilibria exist but may be inefficient; in such equilibria, steady state consumption is independent of initial endowments and increases in self‐control. Increasing the preference for commitment while keeping self‐control constant increases the equity premium. Removing nonbinding constraints changes equilibrium allocations and prices. Debt contracts can be sustained even if the only feasible punishment for default is the termination of the contract.     

Product Positioning Using a Self‐Organizing Map and the Rings of Influence

In this article, we propose a new product positioning method based on the neural network methodology of a self‐organizing map. The method incorporates the concept of rings of influence, where a firm evaluates individual consumers and decides on the intensity to pursue a consumer, based on the probability that this consumer will purchase a competing product. The method has several advantages over earlier work. First, no limitations are imposed on the number of competing products and second, the method can position multiple products in multiple market segments. Using simulations, we compare the new product positioning method with a quasi‐Newton method and find that the new method always approaches the best solution obtained by the quasi‐Newton method. The quasi‐Newton method, however, is dependent on the initial positions of the new products, with the majority of cases ending in a local optimum. Furthermore, the computational time required by the quasi‐Newton method increases exponentially, while the time required by the new method is small and remains almost unchanged, when the number of new products positioned increases. We also compute the expected utility that a firm will provide consumers by offering its products. We show that as the intensity with which a firm pursues consumers increases, the new method results in near‐optimal solutions in terms of market share, but with higher expected utility provided to consumers when compared to that obtained by a quasi‐Newton method. Thus, the new method can serve as a managerial decision‐making tool to compare the short‐term market share objective with the long‐term expected utility that a firm will provide to consumers, when it positions its products and intensifies its effort to attract consumers away from competition.     

Poverty and Self‐Control

We argue that poverty can perpetuate itself by undermining the capacity for self‐control. In line with a distinguished psychological literature, we consider modes of self‐control that involve the self‐imposed use of contingent punishments and rewards. We study settings in which consumers with quasi‐hyperbolic preferences confront an otherwise standard intertemporal allocation problem with credit constraints. Our main result demonstrates that low initial assets can limit self‐control, trapping people in poverty, while individuals with high initial assets can accumulate indefinitely. Thus, even temporary policies that initiate accumulation among the poor may be effective. We examine implications concerning the effect of access to credit on saving, the demand for commitment devices, the design of financial accounts to promote accumulation, and the variation of the marginal propensity to consume across income from different sources. We also explore the nature of optimal self‐control, demonstrating that it has a simple and behaviorally plausible structure that is immune to self‐renegotiation.     

Contract Structure,Risk‐Sharing,and Investment Choice

Few microfinance‐funded businesses grow beyond subsistence entrepreneurship. This paper considers one possible explanation: that the structure of existing microfinance contracts may discourage risky but high‐expected‐return investments. To explore this possibility, I develop a theory that unifies models of investment choice, informal risk‐sharing, and formal financial contracts. I then test the predictions of this theory using a series of experiments with clients of a large microfinance institution in India. The experiments confirm the theoretical predictions that joint liability creates two potential inefficiencies. First, borrowers free‐ride on their partners, making risky investments without compensating partners for this risk. Second, the addition of peer‐monitoring overcompensates, leading to sharp reductions in risk‐taking and profitability. Equity‐like financing, in which partners share both the benefits and risks of more profitable projects, overcomes both of these inefficiencies and merits further testing in the field.     

A WTP‐Choice Model: Empirical Validation,Competitive and Centralized Pricing

Willingness To Pay (WTP) of customers plays an anchoring role in pricing. This study proposes a new choice model based on WTP, incorporating sequential decision making, where the products with positive utility of purchase are considered in the order of customer preference. We compare WTP‐choice model with the commonly used (multinomial) Logit model with respect to the underlying choice process, information requirement, and independence of irrelevant alternatives. Using WTP‐choice model, we find and compare equilibrium and centrally optimal prices and profits without considering inventory availability. In addition, we compare equilibrium prices and profits in two contexts: without considering inventory availability and under lost sales. One of the interesting results with WTP‐choice model is the “loose coupling” of retailers in competition; prices are not coupled but profits are. That is, each retailer should charge the monopoly price as the collection of these prices constitute an equilibrium but each retailer's profit depends on other retailers' prices. Loose coupling fails with dependence of WTPs or dependence of preference on prices. Also, we show that competition among retailers facing dependent WTPs can cause price cycles under some conditions. We consider real‐life data on sales of yogurt, ketchup, candy melt, and tuna, and check if a version of WTP‐choice model (with uniform, triangle, or shifted exponential WTP distribution), standard or mixed Logit model fits better and predicts the sales better. These empirical tests establish that WTP‐choice model compares well and should be considered as a legitimate alternative to Logit models for studying pricing for products with low price and high frequency of purchase.     

Precision of Information,Sensational Information,and Self‐Efficacy Information as Message‐Level Variables Affecting Risk Perceptions

Studies that investigate how the mass media cover risk issues often assume that certain characteristics of content are related to specific risk perceptions and behavioral intentions. However, these relationships have seldom been empirically assessed. This study tests the influence of three message‐level media variables—risk precision information, sensational information, and self‐efficacy information—on perceptions of risk, individual worry, and behavioral intentions toward a pervasive health risk. Results suggest that more precise risk information leads to increased risk perceptions and that the effect of sensational information is moderated by risk precision information. Greater self‐efficacy information is associated with greater intention to change behavior, but none of the variables influence individual worry. The results provide a quantitative understanding of how specific characteristics of informational media content can influence individuals’ responses to health threats of a global and uncertain nature.     

Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Censored and Truncated Regressions via a Smoothed Self‐Consistency Equation

An asymptotically efficient likelihood‐based semiparametric estimator is derived for the censored regression (tobit) model, based on a new approach for estimating the density function of the residuals in a partially observed regression. Smoothing the self‐consistency equation for the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the distribution of the residuals yields an integral equation, which in some cases can be solved explicitly. The resulting estimated density is smooth enough to be used in a practical implementation of the profile likelihood estimator, but is sufficiently close to the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator to allow estimation of the semiparametric efficient score. The parameter estimates obtained by solving the estimated score equations are then asymptotically efficient. A summary of analogous results for truncated regression is also given.     

The Influence of Feelings While Driving Regular Cars on the Perception and Acceptance of Self‐Driving Cars

Self‐driving vehicles will affect the future of transportation, but factors that underlie perception and acceptance of self‐driving cars are yet unclear. Research on feelings as information and the affect heuristic has suggested that feelings are an important source of information, especially in situations of complexity and uncertainty. In this study (N = 1,484), we investigated how feelings related to traditional driving affect risk perception, benefit perception, and trust related to self‐driving cars as well as people's acceptance of the technology. Due to limited experiences with and knowledge of self‐driving cars, we expected that feelings related to a similar experience, namely, driving regular cars, would influence judgments of self‐driving cars. Our results support this assumption. While positive feelings of enjoyment predicted higher benefit perception and trust, negative affect predicted higher risk and higher benefit perception of self‐driving cars. Feelings of control were inversely related to risk and benefit perception, which is in line with research on the affect heuristic. Furthermore, negative affect was an important source of information for judgments of use and acceptance. Interest in using a self‐driving car was also predicted by lower risk perception, higher benefit perception, and higher levels of trust in the technology. Although people's individual experiences with advanced vehicle technologies and knowledge were associated with perceptions and acceptance, many simply have never been exposed to the technology and know little about it. In the absence of this experience or knowledge, all that is left is the knowledge, experience, and feelings they have related to regular driving.     

Bayesian and Dominant‐Strategy Implementation in the Independent Private‐Values Model

We prove—in the standard independent private‐values model—that the outcome, in terms of interim expected probabilities of trade and interim expected transfers, of any Bayesian mechanism can also be obtained with a dominant‐strategy mechanism.