Modeling whether,what and how much to buy the right way: an empirical analysis with implications for model building

Whether, what and how much to buy are central decisions in consumer goods markets. Marketing research commonly uses a sequential approach where quantity decision is conditional on purchase incidence and brand choice (e.g., Ailawadi et al. in J Mark Res 44:450–467, 2007). This approach assumes separability between decisions and suffers from selectivity bias. The bias can be overcome by explicitly controlling for it (e.g., Zhang et al. in Rev Mark Sci 3(1), 2005) or by using one unifying utility function, a method considered “state of the art in analyzing purchase behavior in a single product category” (e.g., Song and Chintagunta in J Mark Res 44(4):595–612, 2007). However, this latter method puts restrictive assumptions on the influence of prices on choices, which may affect managerial implications derived from the model results. This study investigates the effect of selectivity bias by comparing the sequential approach—with and without explicitly controlling for endogeneity bias—to the unifying utility function approach. Based on household panel data from three categories, we illustrate the extent to which managerial implications from these frameworks differ. We show that the superiority of one framework versus the other depends on the specific category and its characteristics. The managerial implications of using the “wrong” framework are demonstrated by conducting two simulation studies; these show that price elasticities substantially deviate across frameworks.     

Modelling multibrand consumption

In this article a model for the multibrand consumption of fast moving non-durable consumer goods is presented. The model is derived by the mixing of a multinomial distribution (representing the brand consumption probabilities of an individual household) with the continuous multivariate Beta (Dirichlet) distribution (which allows for differences between households). The core of the analysis involves the use of complete bivariate tables. The model is shown to provide an adequate representation of a set of consumption data and to satisfactorily estimate the various brand market shares.     

The Collective Model of Household Consumption: A Nonparametric Characterization

We provide a nonparametric characterization of a general collective model for household consumption, which includes externalities and public consumption. Next, we establish testable necessary and sufficient conditions for data consistency with collective rationality that only include observed price and quantity information. These conditions have a similar structure as the generalized axiom of revealed preference for the unitary model, which is convenient from a testing point of view. In addition, we derive the minimum number of goods and observations that enable the rejection of collectively rational household behavior.     

显性比较优势、产业内贸易与中美双边贸易平衡

本文有如下创新和结论:(1)细化行业分类到SITC4分位数据,改进RCA指数测算方法,揭示出中国对美工业制造品出口具有显著比较优势的商品组,排序为:杂项制品66类、原料制品51类、机械与运输设备36类。(2)将产业内贸易调整指数方法运用到中美产业内贸易研究,证实中美工业制造品静态产业内贸易平衡状况较差,大多数商品组趋向产业间贸易,少数商品组表现为垂直产业内贸易。(3)GL指数和Cj指数无法反映产业内贸易失衡程度和方向,本文提出产业内贸易失衡指数,揭示出加重中美工业制造品贸易失衡和对贸易失衡起到平衡作用的商品组。(4)认为Thorpe和Zhang(2005)给出的动态产业内贸易指数分子中分类集合加总会造成扭曲,本文改进了该动态指数,并证实中美工业制造品动态产业内贸易失衡状况比静态产业内贸易失衡状况更差,中美贸易逆差难以改变。     

Monopoly Versioning of Information Goods When Consumers Have Group Tastes

Large sunk costs of development, negligible costs of reproduction, and distribution resulting in economies of scale distinguish information goods from physical goods. Versioning is a way firms may take advantage of these properties. However, in a baseline model where consumers differ in their tastes for quality, an information goods monopolist only offers one version, and this differs from what we observe in practice. We explore formulations that add features to the baseline model that result in a monopolist offering multiple versions. We examine versioning where consumers differ in individual tastes for quality, and groups of consumers that share the same group taste are delineated by segments of individual tastes. We find that if groups have mutually exclusive characteristics—a horizontal dimension—that they value relative to the shared characteristics, then versioning is optimal. Consequently, any horizontal differentiation in product line design favors versioning. In addition, when group tastes are hierarchical such that higher taste groups value characteristics that lower taste groups value but not vice versa—a vertical dimension—as long as the valuations of the higher and adjacent lower taste group are sufficiently close, then versioning is also optimal. Our conditions, which also help determine how many versions are optimal, are based on exogenously defined parameters so that it is feasible to check them in practice.     

存在二手市场时耐用品垄断厂商再制造策略研究

运用稳态均衡分析方法，利用消费者效用模型分析存在二手市场时耐用品垄断厂商再制造策略选择问题。通过模型分析得到，耐用品垄断厂商选择再制造策略的条件为：新耐用品成本、再制造成本以及旧耐用品贬值率低于临界值，而消费者认可程度高于临界值。耐用品垄断厂商选择再制造策略不仅会对新耐用品市场产生挤兑效应，而且也会对二手市场产生挤兑效应。存在旧耐用品再利用率的临界值，当耐用品垄断厂商的旧耐用品再利用率高于该临界值时，选择再制造策略可以提高消费者对耐用品的需求量，产生市场增长效应；新耐用品的生产成本正向影响市场增长效应。     

A Framework for Measuring the Importance of Variables with Applications to Management Research and Decision Models*

In many disciplines, including various management science fields, researchers have shown interest in assigning relative importance weights to a set of explanatory variables in multivariable statistical analysis. This paper provides a synthesis of the relative importance measures scattered in the statistics, psychometrics, and management science literature. These measures are computed by averaging the partial contributions of each variable over all orderings of the explanatory variables. We define an Analysis of Importance (ANIMP) framework that reflects two desirable properties for the relative importance measures discussed in the literature: additive separability and order independence. We also provide a formal justification and generalization of the “averaging over all orderings” procedure based on the Maximum Entropy Principle. We then examine the question of relative importance in management research within the framework of the “contingency theory of organizational design” and provide an example of the use of relative importance measures in an actual management decision situation. Contrasts are drawn between the consequences of use of statistical significance, which is an inappropriate indicator of relative importance and the results of the appropriate ANIMP measures.     

Shifting the Goalposts? Analysing Changes to Performance Peer Groups Used to Determine the Remuneration of FTSE 100 CEOs

This paper examines year‐on‐year changes to the composition of performance peer groups used for relative performance evaluation in setting CEO pay in FTSE 100 companies and finds evidence of peer selection bias. The authors find that firms keep their peer groups weak by excluding relatively stronger performing peers. They also show that peer selection bias is less pronounced in firms with higher institutional investor ownership, which suggests that institutional investors might be aware of the risks of peer selection bias. The results suggest that peer group modifications can be viewed, at least in part, as an expression of managerial rent‐seeking.     

Nonparametric Engel Curves and Revealed Preference

This paper applies revealed preference theory to the nonparametric statistical analysis of consumer demand. Knowledge of expansion paths is shown to improve the power of nonparametric tests of revealed preference. The tightest bounds on indifference surfaces and welfare measures are derived using an algorithm for which revealed preference conditions are shown to guarantee convergence. Nonparametric Engel curves are used to estimate expansion paths and provide a stochastic structure within which to examine the consistency of household level data and revealed preference theory. An application is made to a long time series of repeated cross–sections from the Family Expenditure Survey for Britain. The consistency of these data with revealed preference theory is examined. For periods of consistency with revealed preference, tight bounds are placed on true cost of living indices.     

Joint Stocking and Product Offer Decisions Under the Multinomial Logit Model

This article studies a joint stocking and product offer problem. We have access to a number of products to satisfy the demand over a finite selling horizon. Given that customers choose among the set of offered products according to the multinomial logit model, we need to decide which sets of products to offer over the selling horizon and how many units of each product to stock so as to maximize the expected profit. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear program, where the decision variables correspond to the stocking quantity for each product and the duration of time that each set of products is offered. This nonlinear program is intractable due to its large number of decision variables and its nonseparable and nonconcave objective function. We use the structure of the multinomial logit model to formulate an equivalent nonlinear program, where the number of decision variables is manageable and the objective function is separable. Exploiting separability, we solve the equivalent nonlinear program through a dynamic program with a two dimensional and continuous state variable. As the solution of the dynamic program requires discretizing the state variable, we study other approximate solution methods. Our equivalent nonlinear program and approximate solution methods yield insights for good offer sets.     

住房价格波动对城镇居民消费的影响分析

将城镇居民家庭分为拥有至少两套住房的家庭(代表性家庭1)、只有一套住房的家庭(代表性家庭2)和没有住房的租房家庭(代表性家庭3)3类,微观经济模型分析表明:住房价格上涨会拉动代表性家庭1和代表性家庭2的消费增长;当代表性家庭3有购买住房意愿和计划时,住房价格上涨对其消费具有挤出效应;当代表性家庭3没有购买住房意愿和计划时,其消费随着住房价格的上升而增加;住房价格上涨影响居民消费的程度与家庭当前消费水平、住房价格、居住面积、消费习惯、对待风险的态度和利率等因素有关.利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析表明:住房价格上涨对代表性家庭1、代表性家庭2和代表性家庭3这3类家庭的消费均具有促进作用;从影响程度来看,对无房城镇家庭的影响程度最大,对仅有一套住房城镇家庭的影响程度最小;从地域来看,房价上涨对东部地区城镇居民家庭消费的影响高于中西部地区.     

公平偏好视角下的专利联盟企业创新行为演化研究

专利联盟的专利交叉许可机制使专利具有了公共品属性,在无有效机制引导下,部分企业搭便车行为必然会影响其他成员持续研发的积极性,不利于联盟稳定发展。本文在公平偏好视角下,构建了专利联盟企业公共品博弈模型,通过利用费米规则在MATLAB上模拟专利联盟企业创新行为演化过程,分析了联盟企业创新行为内在动机,并进一步引入惩罚机制,探究其对联盟企业创新行为演化过程的影响。结果表明：当嫉妒参数与羞愧参数之比低于某一阈值时,整个联盟才能呈现出稳定的高研发水平。在利己倾向的公平偏好情景下,在公共品回报乘数越高,却越会刺激搭便车;而在利他倾向的公平偏好情景下,当专利公共品回报乘数增加并超过阈值时,会促使整个联盟企业努力研发,此时许可收益增加也更有利于提高企业努力研发积极性,而且当存在联合惩罚机制时,惩罚也更有效果,但惩罚系数与惩罚成本之比必须大于某一阈值,才能抑制企业搭便车行为。最后提出了在专利联盟管理实践中促进企业积极创新的建议。     

12 Structural Equation Modeling in Management Research: A Guide for Improved Analysis

Abstract

A large segment of management research in recent years has used structural equation modeling (SEM) as an analytical approach that simultaneously combines factor analysis and linear regression models for theory testing. With this approach, latent variables (factors) represent the concepts of a theory, and data from measures (indicators) are used as input for statistical analyses that provide evidence about the relationships among latent variables. This chapter first provides a brief introduction to SEM and its concepts and terminology. We then discuss four issues related to the measurement component of such models, including how indicators are developed, types of relationships between indicators and latent variables, approaches for multidimensional constructs, and analyses needed when data from multiple time points or multiple groups are examined. In our second major section, we focus on six issues related to the structural component of structural equation models, including how to examine mediation and moderation, dealing with longitudinal and multilevel data, issues related to the use of control variables, and judging the adequacy of models and latent variable relationships. We conclude with a set of recommendations for how future applications of SEM in management research can be improved.     

Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand

We consider the invertibility (injectivity) of a nonparametric nonseparable demand system. Invertibility of demand is important in several contexts, including identification of demand, estimation of demand, testing of revealed preference, and economic theory exploiting existence of an inverse demand function or (in an exchange economy) uniqueness of Walrasian equilibrium prices. We introduce the notion of “connected substitutes” and show that this structure is sufficient for invertibility. The connected substitutes conditions require weak substitution between all goods and sufficient strict substitution to necessitate treating them in a single demand system. The connected substitutes conditions have transparent economic interpretation, are easily checked, and are satisfied in many standard models. They need only hold under some transformation of demand and can accommodate many models in which goods are complements. They allow one to show invertibility without strict gross substitutes, functional form restrictions, smoothness assumptions, or strong domain restrictions. When the restriction to weak substitutes is maintained, our sufficient conditions are also “nearly necessary” for even local invertibility.     

An acyclic outranking model to support group decision making within organizations

A model to support group decision making within the board of any organization to select an alternative from a short list is proposed using a pairwise relation: consensus relation.This relation avoids elementary cyclicity which is a general shortcoming of previous models and satisfies transitivity under special conditions (weak transitivity). This relation is represented by a triangle-free graph and has important implications for Public Choice Theory such as the special relevance of the 2/3 majority rule and for Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) to improve outranking models.The proposed model can be easily applied as shown by the example presented.The contributions obtained from this model do not only include the selection of the recommended alternative(s) but also very useful representations and measures of the level of cultural consensus and dissent of the board members which can be used to improve their composition and behavior.     

基于资源共享和温度控制的生鲜商品多中心车辆路径优化问题

针对生鲜商品多中心共同配送优化研究在资源共享和温度控制有效结合方面存在的不足,提出研究集成资源共享和温度控制的生鲜商品多中心车辆路径优化问题。首先,结合生鲜商品的易腐性和配送过程的及时性特征,构建了包含生鲜商品多中心间的运输成本、配送成本、车辆温控成本、违反时间窗惩罚成本、生鲜商品价值损失和车辆租赁成本的物流运营成本最小和配送车辆使用数最小的双目标优化模型。然后,设计了结合生鲜需求客户地理位置、需求商品温控区间和时间窗约束的K-means多维聚类算法,进而提出一种TS-NSGA-II算法,该算法设计了禁忌搜索算法(TS)和非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)间有效的选择性赋予机制,进而增强了解空间的搜索和寻优能力,并通过与MOGEA和MOPSO算法的对比分析,进一步验证了模型和TS-NSGA-II算法的有效性。最后,通过实例分析探讨了不同资源共享模式和温控区间的多中心车辆路径优化方案,研究结果可为生鲜商品物流配送企业进行资源共享模式选择和温控区间设计提供方法支撑和决策支持。     

Entscheidungsunterstützung unter Berücksichtigung der Anforderungen von Entscheidungsträgern am Beispiel der Gestaltung von optionalen Girokonto-Tarifen

Quantitative decision models are used only if managers’ implementation conditions are met. Decision makers want tools that offer a set of good solutions so that they can evaluate different solutions according to various objectives without being forced to make their trade-offs explicit in a functional form. This also allows taking into account strategic aspects that cannot be modeled otherwise. In such situations, heuristics are needed which derive solutions from the structure and not so much from the mathematical properties. We present such a decision support tool for the problem of determining a menu of optional tariffs for checking accounts. The heuristic is based on the idea that for reasonably separable preferences across segments it is the best to offer for each segment the most preferred product. We use latent class choice-based conjoint analysis to estimate customer preferences and develop a customized choice-based conjoint design to take differences in individual demand into account. The proposed heuristic was used to support an actual decision problem for which the profit contribution has been increased substantially without having faced a considerable loss of customers.     

Measuring exposure to bullying at work: The validity and advantages of the latent class cluster approach

Abstract

This paper addresses the construct and predictive validity of two methods for classifying respondents as victims of workplace bullying. Although bullying is conceived as a complex phenomenon, the dominant method used in bullying surveys, the operational classification method, only distinguishes two groups: victims versus non-victims. Hence, the complex nature of workplace bullying may not be accounted for. Therefore a latent class cluster approach is suggested to model the data, which was obtained by using the Negative Acts Questionnaire (NAQ) administered to employees in Belgium (n=6,175). Latent class modelling is a method of analysis that does not appear to have been used in occupational health psychology before. In this study, six latent classes emerged: “not bullied,” “limited work criticism,” “limited negative encounters,” “sometimes bullied,” “work related bullied,” and “victims.” The results show that compared to the traditional operational classification method, the latent class cluster approach shows higher construct and higher predictive validity with respect to self-assessments and indicators of strain and well-being at work. The consequences of these results for theory, future research, and practice are discussed.     

Farms,Families, and Markets: New Evidence on Completeness of Markets in Agricultural Settings

The farm household model has played a central role in improving the understanding of small‐scale agricultural households and non‐farm enterprises. Under the assumptions that all current and future markets exist and that farmers treat all prices as given, the model simplifies households' simultaneous production and consumption decisions into a recursive form in which production can be treated as independent of preferences of household members. These assumptions, which are the foundation of a large literature in labor and development, have been tested and not rejected in several important studies including Benjamin (1992). Using multiple waves of longitudinal survey data from Central Java, Indonesia, this paper tests a key prediction of the recursive model: demand for farm labor is unrelated to the demographic composition of the farm household. The prediction is unambiguously rejected. The rejection cannot be explained by contamination due to unobserved heterogeneity that is fixed at the farm level, local area shocks, or farm‐specific shocks that affect changes in household composition and farm labor demand. We conclude that the recursive form of the farm household model is not consistent with the data. Developing empirically tractable models of farm households when markets are incomplete remains an important challenge.     

收入差距与中国城镇居民消费行为的实证研究

本文采用AIDS(Almost Ideal Demand System)模型,研究了收入差距对中国城镇居民消费行为影响的问题.根据我国城镇居民的消费热点:耐用消费品、医疗、交通、通讯、教育、娱乐、住房,并补充居民生活必需品:食品和衣着,本文将城镇居民的消费品种分为9大类、将城镇居民按收入分为7组,同时添加反映居民收入分组的虚拟变量,采用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)对联立方程进行估计.所建模型统计检验结果显示:模型能够有效地反映出不同收入居民间的消费行为的差异,并克服了采用分地区数据导致的估计拟合度不理想、参数显著性不足的缺点.主要研究结论是:收入差距对中国城镇居民的消费行为存在一定的影响,特别是耐用消费品,但在衣着、教育等消费上影响不大.