Statistical Design for Sampling and Analysis of Animal Populations for Chemical Contamination

A strategy for sampling of animal tissues and a statistical approach for analyzing data on body burdens of a parent chemical and its metabolites is presented such that the data may be evaluated in relation to the detection limit(s)of the analytical techniques used and the criterion levels established for acceptable tissue concentrations.     

Neighbors in Time: Development and Use of Some Values for Intergenerational Justice from the Jewish and Christian Religious Traditions

The overlapping understandings of Jewish and Christian traditions (the Traditions), both influencing and reincorporating Western culture from the Greeks to the present, underpin many of the ethical constructs of present society, in ways both obvious and subtle. The concept of justice is central to the ethical outlooks of both religious traditions. This article systematically develops values related to justice from within the Traditions and extends them to the question of intergenerational equity as proposed precepts for assessment and action. Many of the results seem familiar because they are deeply embedded in our culture. They are assertions that transcend time-the value of human life; an obligation to support the necessary interests of others, especially the powerless; the concepts of brotherhood, the common good, and stewardship of resources; and the transmission of knowledge, resources, and values through the vehicles of families and communities. Other ideas from within the Traditions, such as giving beyond the requirements of equity and the connection of human life with God whose abilities are unbounded by time, continue to draw people beyond the limits of culture. These outlooks are organized into 17 statements or proposals constitutive of this view of justice. These summary statements are used as the basis for comparing a system of principles proposed by a panel of the National Academy of Public Administration for intergenerational decision making with the views represented by the Traditions. This broaches a broader question of fairness in resource distribution. The article concludes with reference to some developed resources of the Traditions from which further insight can be drawn, and another illustration related to resource allocation. It is hoped that the article helps stimulate wider analysis of the values on which our decisions are made.     

The effect of authentic transformational leadership on follower and group ethics

We propose a theoretical model to examine how authentic transformational leadership influences follower individual and group ethical decision making. We investigate how follower moral identity and moral emotions mediate the effect of authentic transformational leadership on follower authentic moral action. Furthermore, we explore how authentic transformational leadership develops group ethical climate, which in turn contributes to enhancing group ethics and to developing follower moral identity and moral emotions. Future research and practical implications are discussed.     

人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑与分析框架

人工智能作为社会发展和技术创新的产物,已经成为新一轮科技创新和产业变革的核心驱动力,正在对世界经济、社会进步和人民生活产生极其深刻的影响。人工智能的商业应用会改变企业内部运作和生产经营的过程,为企业管理带来了诸多挑战和变革机遇。本文结合人工智能的特征与发展趋势,从管理对象、管理属性、管理决策和管理伦理四个方面对人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑进行了梳理,得出如下推论:第一,人工智能时代,被管理者将出现越来越多的"人工智能员工",以"社会人"为中心的管理理论和管理手段的适用性降低,如何管理"人工智能员工"以及协调人类员工与智能机器人的关系将对管理者提出挑战;第二,人工智能时代,管理属性不仅包括管理理论的科学性、管理实践的艺术性,还包括管理过程的技术性;第三,人工智能时代,将出现一批优秀的技术管理者,此时,技术管理者指的不是管理技术的人,而是掌握智能技术的管理者;第四,人工智能时代,管理者的决策环境得到优化,管理活动中的决策准则将由"满意决策"过渡为"最优决策";第五,人工智能时代,管理手段的智能化发展可能会加剧管理效率和管理伦理的冲突,管理者必须提升管理道德,经营过程中强化社会责任的履行;第六,随着人工智能技术发展,政府、社会团体和行业协会有必要从政策、法律与行业标准等多个方面构建人工智能发展伦理的多层次约束机制。     

Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions

This paper reports on the design and implementation of a multi-methodology intervention intended to support a budget prioritisation decision by a multi-organisational group tasked with tackling the problem of teenage pregnancy in an English borough. The intervention approach involved the combined use of cognitive/causal mapping and a multi-criteria decision analysis method to develop and prioritise a number of projects aimed at alleviating issues associated with teenage pregnancy. The paper describes and discusses the process of developing and applying the intervention approach, and provides an evaluation of its perceived impact by the client group. Drawing on the rich seam of data gathered over the course of our work with the multi-organisational group, we explore the varying degrees of impact that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods achieved during and after the intervention. Analysis of the intervention data suggests that both methods were perceived to facilitate a different way of thinking and learning. In addition, we find that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods successfully addressed participants' democratic and rational concerns. However, despite these reported positive effects, the full recommendations of the intervention were not implemented. An attempt is made to explain this outcome in terms of both the multi-organisational context within which the intervention took place and the nature of the group task. Directions for further research are then proposed.     

基于易经的中国商业伦理与管理

现今中国社会存在一种综合的儒家商业伦理,从《易经》的思维角度看,这种商业伦理有着较为复杂的结构.中国的商业伦理以《易经》的宇宙本体论作为向导,与哲学流派间有趣地融合,成为中国商业与经济中一种指导经济行为的实践哲学.从《易经》的思考模式解析了这种从儒家德行伦理到升级的儒家伦理的发展融合过程,以及后者在商业上的实际运用.通过整合责任伦理、功利主义甚至是权利伦理来完成一种现代性的转换.这种转换的成果称之为综合的儒家商业伦理.在兼顾经济发展与国家整体发展的过程中,它将是中国商业与经济领袖们手中的有力武器.     

Ethical Mindsets of Christianity and Confucianism: A Comparative Study

This study investigates the application of an organizational mindset instrument to compare the ethical mindsets between Italy and Taiwan. Results suggest that there are not significant differences, but Italian business is perceived to practice some Machiavellianism that puts results ahead of ethical concerns.     

机构投资者决策行为描述及实证研究

从决策者的有限理性角度,引入行为金融研究机构投资者决策行为问题.将机构投资者决策行为描述成一种两级优化问题,研究显示机构投资者情绪演化过程决定着其决策行为.采用AM0S4.0对205份样本数据进行因子分析,结果表明这一机理显著存在.     

Aspects of Change for Management in the Internet Environment

This paper will explore the challenge that technology will deliver to management at both the tactical and strategic level. Changes in communication, content of communication, globalization of communication, are critical to these changes. The environment will support a greater degree of discontinuities in planning which is brought about by the globalization of management activities. Successful management must encompose the management of these discontinuities but use information in an artificial intelligence environment. The integration of these data and the actions that come from that integration must be understood within a moral framework. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

异质成本分配模型的公理体系及分配方法

在建立成本分配问题数学模型的基础上,提出了异质成本分配模型的公理体系,将异质 成本分配规则应满足的公理性质分为基本公理性质、一般公理性质和特殊公理性质三类;通过 案例研究,深入分析了产出规模不变性、需求单调性、比例性和上限性等公理性质的强制性,并 对EANS 方法、Aumann2Shapley 值法、Friedman2Moulin 序列方法和Shapley2Shubik 方法等典型的 异质成本分配方法对公理性质的满足情况进行了全面讨论,通过严格的数学证明,得出了有价 值的结论.     

一种分析作用条件与作用效果关系的非参数方法

针对数据平均化处理方法无法观察指标个性差异的不足,给出了一种分析作用条件与综合作用效果关系的非参数方法(Con-Eff),并根据以下3种情况构造了相应的数学模型:①所有观察指标越大越好;②所有观察指标越小越好;③一部分观察指标越大越好,另一部分观察指标越小越好。然后,对模型的含义、模型性质以及模型的求解方法进行了探讨。最后,探讨了该方法在高等学校人力资源管理中的应用。     

基于粗糙集的投标风险分析与规避决策模型研究——国家自然科学基金项目（70271031）回溯

回顾了国家自然科学基金项目"基于粗糙集的投标风险分析与规避决策模型研究(70271031)"的立项背景,介绍了本项目的主要研究内容与主要成果,以及本项目的代表性论文、论著。     

煤炭行业上市公司股权结构对企业技术效率的影响研究

运用随机边界分析方法,计算了我国11家煤炭上市公司的技术效率;建立了股权结构与技术效率之间的函数关系,以煤炭上市公司2001~2006年间的数据为样本,运用回归分析方法,验证了煤炭上市公司的股权集中度与技术效率之间呈显著的"U"型关系。     

Fast and rigorous: Configurational determinants of strategic decision-making balance

A longstanding debate in the strategic decision-making literature has focused on whether top management teams (TMTs) can effectively balance speed and comprehensiveness when making important decisions. In our research, we build on early insights and pivot from considering whether TMTs can engage indecision-making that balances these tensions to focus instead on when certain types of TMTs are able to achieve such balance. We employ a novel configurational analytical approach and a theoretical framework built from role theory to examine the CEO-TMT interface in a new way. In so doing, we are able to identify specific CEO-TMT constellations that support decision-making that is both fast and rigorous. Using a unique primary dataset and an abductive, configurational approach grounded in fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we identify six specific leader-team configurations that each facilitate decision processes characterized by rigorous intra-team debate, meaningful reconciliation of divergent ideas, and fast decision speed (which we describe as strategic decision-making balance). The range of CEO-TMT configurations that emerge from our analyses contribute new theory and findings for the strategic decision-making and interface literatures more broadly, as well as the specific research streams on executive gender, humility, and TMT structure.     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

Measuring strategic decision making efficiency in different country contexts: A comparison of British and Turkish firms

This paper compares the relative efficiency of the strategic decision making (SDM) processes of British and Turkish firms. The technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure the relative efficiency of these firms. The evidence obtained by the DEA analysis reveals that the Turkish firms tend to be superior to the British firms in terms of their SDM efficiency. There is a significant difference in scale returns with respect to the country of origin of the firms. The analysis of the improvement potential of inputs indicates that Turkish firms place more emphasis on managing environmental turbulence to enhance their SDM efficiency, while British firms tend to overly focus on the design of an appropriate organizational structure. However, no significant difference was noted between the two groups of firms with regard to the level of resources and effort exerted on formal strategic planning practices. The analysis of output deficits reveals that there is a significant difference between British and Turkish firms in the sources of inefficiency.     

How Much Uncertainty is Too Much and How Do We Know? A Case Example of the Assessment of Ozone Monitor Network Options

Limited time and resources usually characterize environmental decision making at policy organizations such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In these climates, addressing uncertainty, usually considered a flaw in scientific analyses, is often avoided. However, ignoring uncertainties can result in unpleasant policy surprises. Furthermore, it is important for decisionmakers to know how defensible a chosen policy option is over other options when the uncertainties of the data are considered. The purpose of this article is to suggest an approach that is unique from other approaches in that it considers uncertainty in two specific ways-the uncertainty of stakeholder values within a particular decision context and data uncertainty in the light of the decision-contextual data-values relationship. It is the premise of this article that the interaction between data and stakeholder values is critical to how the decision options are viewed and determines the effect of data uncertainty on the relative acceptability of the decision options, making the understanding of this interaction important to decisionmakers and other stakeholders. This approach utilizes the recently developed decision analysis framework and process, multi-criteria integrated resource assessment (MIRA). This article will specifically address how MIRA can be used to help decisionmakers better understand the importance of uncertainty on the specific (i.e., decision contextual) environmental policy options that they are deliberating.     

Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.     

Uncertainty and the Value of Information with Stochastic Losses from Global Warming

We present an uncertainty analysis conducted using CETA-R, a model in which the costs of climate change are specified as Risks of large losses. In this analysis, we assume that three key parameters may each take on "high" or "low" values, leading to eight possible states of the world. We then explore optimal policies when the state of the world is known, and under uncertainty. Also, we estimate the benefits of resolving uncertainty earlier. We find that the optimal policy under uncertainty is similar to the policy that is optimal when each of the key parameters is at its low value. We also find that the value of immediate uncertainty resolution rises sharply as the alternative to immediate resolution is increasingly delayed resolution.