Pathways to educational aspirations: resilience as a mediator of proximal resources and risks

Educational aspirations play an important role in educational achievement, understanding more about the factors that shape aspirations should enable educators and others who support young people to better articulate educational ambitions and then to work towards their achievement. Given this, the current paper uses a form of integrative data analysis to examine two issues. First, it identifies that a social ecological measure of resilience mediates the impact which proximal risks and resources have upon young people’s educational aspirations. Second, it establishes that the linkages between these proximal risks and resources, resilience and educational aspirations are similar for young people facing high levels of adversity and young people on more or less normative developmental pathways. The paper draws on a data collected in the first wave of the Youth Transitions Study; a longitudinal mixed-methods investigation of the factors that influence transitions to adulthood for a group of vulnerable teenagers.     

企业技术创新风险评价方法研究

企业技术创新中存在着许多风险因素,科学合理地进行评价是每个企业需要解决的重要问题。在构建企业技术创新风险的评价指标体系基础上,借助于AHP法、主成分分析法、模糊综合评价法对企业技术创新风险进行科学评价,定量的衡量企业关于某个项目的技术创新风险大小,作为企业技术创新决策和采取风险控制措施的依据。为避免仅用一种方法进行评价所带来的片面性,可进行组合评价,这样可使决策正确性大大增加。     

Measuring Volunteerability and the Capacity to Volunteer among Non‐volunteers: Implications for Social Policy

As volunteering and its benefits gain global recognition, social policymakers can sustain and increase volunteering through social policy, legislation and other types of involvement. A key performance practice is to measure the rate of volunteering based on the percentage of the population that volunteer or the number of hours donated. The focus of this article, however, is on the capacity to volunteer by non‐volunteers as well as by volunteers. The concept and theory of volunteerability (an individual's ability to overcome related obstacles and volunteer, based on his or her willingness, capability and availability) offers a richer understanding of how people can be assisted to overcome barriers to maximize their volunteer potential and thus increase volunteering. The article details the definitions and benefits of volunteering and covers examples of related social policy, as well as explaining the concept of volunteerability and how it can be measured using existing and new scales. Based on a mixed methods study in Australia, the article offers specific measures to examine the concept of volunteerability and reveals important differences between volunteers and non‐volunteers. The article also details major barriers to volunteering and how social policies can be developed to overcome them.     

Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II—New Evidence

Using new survey data, we test the hypothesis that individuals' perceptions of health and safety risks are unbiased. While we find that respondents' estimates of those risks are sensitive to the information they are given to anchor their responses, we find no evidence to support the widely held view that people tend to underestimate the frequency of relatively common risks. The slight tendency for respondents to overestimate the frequency of extremely unlikely events can plausibly be interpreted as truncation bias. Overall, the accuracy of our subjects' estimates varies in a manner that is fully consistent with simple conjectures about the health and safety information that is of greatest relevance to them in the conduct of their lives. The marked difference between the results of our survey and those of previous studies appears to be attributable to the practical implications of costly information and the common failure of investigators to account for the fact that rational individuals will choose to acquire less than full information about many uncertain events.     

Resilience of Young People in Residential Care

Children and young people in residential care may have experienced or may experience various difficult, life-threatening events, such as neglect, abuse, or violence and maltreatment known as adversities. Despite this, some of them are able to function and even prosper and this has been attributed to the development of resilience. In this qualitative empirical study, we focus on the under-researched area of how young people in care reflect on and cope with such adversities. The exploratory research comprised of semi-structured interviews with young people in two different care settings – re-education centres and children’s homes. The results showed that the sample of 34 young people had experienced 73 adversities prior to leaving residential care and that half of them were not able to resolve some of these adversities. It was found that methods for dealing with adversity change during time spent in care and that a combination of various individual strategies, adaptation and accepting support are effective. The findings also indicate that the development of resilience may vary according to type of residential care setting specifically, whether these facilities allow the development of multiple individual strategies for dealing with adversities, or whether they provide social support. The article discusses implications for future research and practice in residential care.     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

Intentional Exposure Studies of Environmental Agents on Human Subjects: Assessing Benefits and Risks∗

In this article, I assess the benefits and risks of studies that intentionally expose research subjects to environmental agents. I describe these types of studies, identify their benefits and risks, compare them to other research methods that can be used to investigate the relationship between environmental exposures and disease, and discuss some issues related to research design and risk minimization. I argue that the benefits of intentional environmental exposure studies outweigh the risks when 1) the knowledge gained is likely to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental exposure and disease, 2) this knowledge cannot be obtained by other methods, 3) the experiments are well designed, 4) the subjects will receive some benefits, such as medical evaluations, 5) risks are minimized, and 6) the risks to human subjects are less than those encountered in a typical Phase I drug study. Only in rare circumstances (i.e., when an intentional environmental exposure study is needed to implement an important environmental or public health intervention or regulation) may such studies expose research subjects to risks as high as those encountered in a typical Phase I drug trail.     

Intentional exposure studies of environmental agents on human subjects: assessing benefits and risks

In this article, I assess the benefits and risks of studies that intentionally expose research subjects to environmental agents. I describe these types of studies, identify their benefits and risks, compare them to other research methods that can be used to investigate the relationship between environmental exposures and disease, and discuss some issues related to research design and risk minimization. I argue that the benefits of intentional environmental exposure studies outweigh the risks when 1) the knowledge gained is likely to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental exposure and disease, 2) this knowledge cannot be obtained by other methods, 3) the experiments are well designed, 4) the subjects will receive some benefits, such as medical evaluations, 5) risks are minimized, and 6) the risks to human subjects are less than those encountered in a typical Phase I drug study. Only in rare circumstances (i.e., when an intentional environmental exposure study is needed to implement an important environmental or public health intervention or regulation) may such studies expose research subjects to risks as high as those encountered in a typical Phase I drug trail.     

Construal Processes in Preference Assessment

Interpreting people's preferences requires understanding how they have construed their tasks, interpreting the proposed alternatives in the context where the evaluation is being made. With stylized experimental or survey choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people add in order to make their task real enough to answer (i.e., how they read between the lines). With rich “real world” choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people neglect, as they reduce their task to manageable complexity (i.e., which lines they choose to read). In either case, if people misunderstand or mistrust the stated transaction, they may evaluate a different offer than the one that was proposed. Such misconstruals are a nuisance for investigators, insofar as dealing with them delays the measurements that motivated the research. However, they can also provide an opportunity, by focusing attention on how people give meaning to choice situations. This article describes procedures for studying construal processes, strategies for getting people to answer the questions that interest researchers, and options for interpreting responses when people construe questions differently than was intended.     

现代性视域中的风险

作为现代性的产物和后果,风险及风险社会存在与人类社会由简单现代性向反思现代性的转变过程中,它预示着社会可能面临的“危险”和“灾难”。当代中国虽然没有进入风险社会,但由于正处于社会的转型过程中,各种潜在和现实的风险大量存在。为此,我们必须以科学发展观为指导,不断强化风险意识,并建立有效的风险管理机制,进一步加强国际合作,实现风险的全球治理,力求以最小的风险获取最大的发展。     

Endogenous risks and the risk premium

This note tries to correct a deficiency of the microeconomic literature on decision making under uncertainty. Indeed, when considering meaningful comparative statics results in situations where risks are at least partially controllable (endogenous), this literature has mostly relied upon the traditional Arrow-Pratt risk aversion functions and has paid very little attention to the definition of the risk premium. However when they defined the risk premium and the risk aversion functions, Arrow and Pratt considered only roulette gambles, i.e. risks totally exogenous to the individual. This note highlights the fact that several definitions of the risk premium may be proposed for endogenous risks. Two of them, already used in the literature, do not preserve the intuitively-appealing properties of the Arrow-Pratt risk premium. An alternative definition is then proposed. It is shown that this new definition of the risk premium applied to endogenous risks exhibits the properties generally admitted for roulette gambles.The three authors have benefitted from Ph. Caperaa's advice and from a referee's comments.     

The Work Profiler: Revision and maintenance of a profiling tool for the recently unemployed in the Netherlands

For the public employment services of many Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the importance of using profiling tools for job seekers is increasing rapidly in importance. With this trend, there is also widening concern about the risks of an over reliance on such tools. Part of the concern lies with a lack of transparency concerning how such tools work. This article aims to address this by offering a detailed investigation of the Work Profiler – the instrument used in the Netherlands by the Institute for Employee Benefits (Uitvoeringsinstituut Werknemersverzekeringen – UWV) to predict re-employment success and provide a diagnosis of key factors hindering job seekers’ return to work. Professionals use these insights to deepen their understanding of the situation of job seekers and decide together with job seekers how to support their return to work. UWV decided to maintain and revise the Work Profiler through a large-scale study involving a sample of 53,238 people. Work Profiler 1.0 was developed in 2007–2010 and has been in use on a regional basis since 2011 and nationwide since 2015. This article explains how the new tool (version 2.0; implemented in 2018) works and, most importantly, demonstrates the choices made to ensure that it functions well and is used effectively by professionals. These latter two aspects are rarely discussed in the literature.     

思想史视野中的质性研究:以方法意涵的构建为例

本文尝试从思想史视角反思质性研究方法,以揭示被结构视角遮蔽的研究过程,从而探讨一种直面内心的反思性社会科学研究方式。思想史视角强调回到文本去阐释书写者赋予研究方法以意涵的思想过程。本文以“推论”“充分必要性”与“意义”等三种方法论立场中的方法意涵构建过程为例展现这样的思想过程：方法论如何引导了对特定研究方法的选择;当方法论与现实情况存在差距时,书写者如何在原有方法论立场中发展对质性方法新的理解以捍卫方法论的合理性;书写者如何在强调与其他立场的区分中发展对方法的理解。本文由此揭示了看似相同的方法背后所蕴含的巨大意涵和实践差异。一种围绕“意涵”展开的方法知识系统将有可能被建立起来。思想史视角为反思性的质性方法知识构建提供了可以付诸实践的路径。     

Working with children checks —time to step back?

Screening the criminal history of people seeking to work or volunteer in child‐related organisations commenced in Australia in 2000, and since then ‘working with children check’ schemes have expanded, largely without question. Every jurisdiction now has a legislated or administrative scheme, routinely checking the criminal histories of thousands of people to determine if they pose a risk to children. But in any regulatory regime, questions of effectiveness and efficiency arise. The main features of working with children check schemes operating in Australia are examined in this paper. Problems related to effectiveness, equity, and costs are identified. A better balance is needed between routine criminal history checks and other mechanisms for identifying and monitoring the risks posed to children by people who work with them.     

Risk Perceptions and Alcohol Consumption among Young People

Swedish cross-sectional survey data on young individuals was used to analyse the determinants of perceived risks of alcohol use and how these perceptions relate to drinking behaviour. Three major conclusions were drawn: (1) that people overestimate the risks of alcoholism, (2) that these risk perceptions fall substantially with age, but nevertheless imply risk overestimation, and (3) that education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco leads individuals to perceive risks more correctly and to have lower risk beliefs. An additional finding was that individuals with higher perceived risks were less likely to consume alcohol. Equations were estimated both separately and simultaneously.     

Risk attitudes in a social context

Many experiments have demonstrated that when evaluating payoffs, people take not only their own payoffs into account, but also the payoffs of others in their social environment. Most of this evidence is found in settings where payoffs are riskless. It is plausible that if people care about the payoffs of others, they do so not only in a riskless context, but also in a risky one. This suggests that an individual’s decision making under risk depends on the risks others in his or her environment face. This paper is the first to test whether individuals’ risk attitudes are affected by the risks others face. The results show that risk attitudes appear to be less affected by others’ risks than expected, even though the same subjects do show concerns for inequality in a riskless setting. Interestingly, we find that people prefer risks to be independent across individuals in society rather than correlated.     

Personal Assistance for Disabled People – The Norwegian Experience

This article presents data from a survey of all disabled people in Norway who receive personal assistance in the municipalities that have been granted subsidies from the state. It concentrates on the following issues: – Who are the users of personal assistance? What distinguishes them from other disabled people? – What dimensions has personal assistance as a service? How has it influenced the total service to the recipients and how is this composed? – How do the users value the service? To what extent does it seem to fulfil the aims of self-dependence and sovereignty for the users? The article concludes that personal assistance seems to be a suitable instrument to reach the goals of full participation and equality of status for disabled people in Norwegian society. The main challenges which personal assistance will meet in the future are the financing of the arrangement and how the principles of user-determination could be implemented and transferred to other services without losing its ideological base.     

CONSOLIDATING AN INDUSTRY AND PROLONGING DEPENDENCY: PROFESSIONALS,POLICIES AND YOUNG PEOPLE

This article examines the nexus between professionalism and the representation of social problems among some young people. It considers how policy and professional interventions involve problem-setting as well as problem-solving activities. A central argument is that a primary effect of both professional activities and of major changes to the youth labour market has been an extension of dependency for many young people. No matter how young people experience the disappearance of the youth labour market, the fact remains: most young people have been permanently excluded from full-time work. As we reach the close of the twentieth century and without essentialising ‘youth’ it seems that more and more young people are unable to live autonomous lives that resemble adulthood until their mid-twenties. For some young people staying on in education, remaining out of the full-time labour market until their mid-twenties may not mark a dramatic shift in their experiences, but for other young people such trends have a dramatic impact on their life-worlds.     

Post-crisis learning in public agencies: what do we learn from both actors and institutions?

Post-crisis learning is a challenge for public organizations, and especially for agencies which handle health and environmental risks. This article investigates how the Belgian Food Safety Agency settles mechanisms for drawing lessons from crises while ensuring day-to-day routine. The framework by Crozier and Friedberg is used as a guideline to consider both the actors and the system, both strategic games and institutional constraints. The article helps in understanding the institutional logics underpinning how the public organizations learn from societal risk and crisis. Centralization and openness appear to be guiding principles, resulting from the learning games. They also generate tensions that the actors’ games manage by defining new rules for cooperation. Both the practice (through our case study) and the theory (combining actors and institutions) broaden the lens of policy analysis for what policy-making at organizational level concerns.