Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Social protection systems and the future of work: Ensuring social security for digital platform workers

Digitalization is transforming societies and economies worldwide at an unprecedented scale and pace. In the wake of automation and digitalization, new forms of employment have been emerging in various occupations and sectors, such as the digital platform economy. The emergence of new forms of employment, such as work on digital platforms, requires that existing social protection systems adapt to the specific situation and needs of such workers, as to realize the human right to social security for all. Current social protection coverage for workers on digital crowdwork platforms reveals significant gaps in social security coverage. Where such coverage exists, it is often provided through the workers’ previous or additional jobs, or indirectly through their spouses or other family members. This raises questions about digital platforms free riding on the traditional economy with regard to the financing of social security. How can social protection systems adapt to changing forms of work to ensure full and effective coverage for workers in all forms of employment, including those in “new” forms of employment? How can workers in all types of employment, including those on digital platforms, be protected in an adequate and comprehensive way, combining contributory and non‐contributory mechanisms and based on equitable and sustainable financing mechanisms, so as to ensure adequate social protection to all?     

Introduction: Social security and the digital economy – Managing transformation

This special issue of the International Social Security Review considers the multidisciplinary topic of social security and the digital economy. The selected articles that comprise this issue offer a number of varying perspectives on the changing and increasingly complex environment in which social security institutions operate and critically assess not only how social security institutions are likely to be impacted but also how they may respond to the challenges foreseen. Social security institutions do not have control over external factors that can negatively impact the financing and coverage of social security programmes. Nonetheless, with the shift to the digital economy, the task at hand is to manage an unprecedented process of change. Though ensuring service continuity is the primary concern, also required are improvements in service delivery for all stakeholders and the development of responses to meet new operational challenges and emerging coverage risks. Particularly in more developed economies, the socio‐economic challenges that accompany the labour market changes associated with the transition to the digital economy are often characterized as presenting a risk of growing precarity. Regardless, the global policy goal remains one of ensuring sustainable and adequate social security protection for all.     

The digital economy and the future of European welfare states

As a consequence of new technology, labour markets are changing. This article’s central aim is to discuss variations among welfare states in Europe to adjust to changing labour markets. These variations in adjustment suggest that some welfare states are more prepared than others, including their capacity to ensure their sustainable financing. In the years to come, the predicted impact of technological development on labour markets will be huge. Impacts will include stronger “dualization” and new cleavages between “insiders” and “outsiders”. Fewer industrial jobs are to be expected, and service‐sector employment faces a risk of decline due to automation. While the creation of new jobs is likely, it remains to be seen whether these will replace the number of jobs destroyed, leaving the risk that many people whose skills become obsolete will become unemployed in the short as well as the longer term. Furthermore, even if the same number of jobs are eventually created, there will be a period of transition. In the light of this, welfare states will be challenged, not only in how they can finance their activities but also in terms of the threat posed to social cohesion by emerging labour market “winners” and “losers”, with an accompanying higher risk of increasing inequality. The article offers suggestions as to how welfare states may cope with the changes related to the financing of welfare states, and how active labour market policy can be part of the response to help alleviate the expected dramatic changes. Also required is a discussion on the annual average number of hours people will work and how this might be a factor in lower future levels of unemployment.     

Survivors' pensions and their impact on the Brazilian labour market

In many countries the regulations governing survivors' pensions were established in periods when female labour market participation was lower than at present. However, the current trend in many Latin American countries is for growing levels of female labour participation. In Brazil, where there are no restrictions on the concurrent receipt of retirement and survivors' pensions, and where until recently lifelong pensions could be obtained without any conditionality, not only has the accumulation of such benefits grown, but there are indications that these rules have had a negative impact on women's labour market participation. Analysis of the case of Brazil shows the need for social security regulations to adapt to labour market changes, and underlines the need to acknowledge that social security regulations can actually have an impact on the labour market.     

Pension reforms in EU11 countries: An evaluation of post‐socialist pension policies

This article evaluates the pension policy pathways of the 11 former state socialist nations that have joined the European Union since 2004. Focusing primarily on the post‐2004 period, the analysis discusses the most important measurable outcomes of these countries’ pension reforms, in terms of poverty alleviation, pension adequacy and fiscal sustainability. Going beyond the quantifiable concepts, we also investigate the quality of the 11 countries’ pension systems in terms of equity as well as efficiency, emphasizing the less conspicuous design errors present in these systems. Although these errors have received little attention to date, they may harm pension schemes along several dimensions, including their fiscal sustainability.     

Improving the protection of migrant workers with work histories in the European Union and Ibero-America: Enhancing the coordination of international social security instruments

Migration affects almost every nation, emphasizing the need to guarantee social security rights for all migrants and their families. This article focuses on the rights of workers who migrate between the countries of the European Union (EU) and the Ibero-American community. In the EU, social security systems are increasingly coordinated through Regulation No. 883/2004 and its Implementing Regulation No. 987/2009. In the Ibero-American community, coordination is sought through the Ibero-American Social Security Convention. Despite convergence between these two international instruments, coordination is still lacking between them. This article presents a comparative analysis to articulate the necessary mechanisms to guarantee coordination, to respect the social security rights of migrant workers. We focus on the cooperation and coordination between regional as well as national systems, specifically looking at the need for and aims of a rapprochement between these two major international coordination instruments to provide greater EU-Ibero-American cooperation. Finally, the importance of promoting greater international cooperation in social security policy and administration is highlighted, to engender the adequate protection of the rights as well as the free movement of migrant workers.     

From pension funds to piggy banks: (Perverse) consequences of the Stability and Growth Pact since the crisis

As part of their strategy for economic and monetary union, European governments committed themselves to fiscal discipline – particularly by placing limits on annual deficits and on public debt. Subsequently, and as they sought to respond to the “current crisis”, they embraced the view that only if public finances were kept under control would sustainable recovery be possible. Rules of fiscal governance were strengthened. To help them meet these rules, the governments of many member States of the European Union made changes to their pension systems or to funds they had established specifically to pay the costs of population ageing. The intention was not to cut retirement benefits or to improve the efficiency of the relevant pension schemes and institutions. Rather, it was to free up resources immediately. Funded pension schemes and pension funds were treated like “piggy banks” that were raided when times became hard. Moreover, the policies pursued succeeded in meeting their objectives only because the system of national accounts according to which outcomes are judged does not recognize the way in which most of the fiscal gains are matched by future fiscal liabilities.     

Extending maternity protection to all women: Trends,challenges and opportunities

Protecting maternity at work has been one of the primary concerns of the International Labour Organization since its foundation in 1919. Along with fundamental human rights treaties, the adoption of the Maternity Protection Convention, 2000 (No. 183) and, more recently, the ILO Recommendation concerning National Floors of Social Protection, 2012 (No. 202), have marked the universalization of the right to maternity protection and call for its extension to all women in line with the principle of equal opportunity and treatment between women and men. In the framework of these historical developments, this article presents evidence of how national legislative provisions on paid maternity leave have improved in the light of the principles of international labour standards, although a large majority of women workers are still not adequately protected in case of maternity. The article then addresses patterns of exclusion from maternity protection in law and practice, and concludes by discussing some social protection programmes that have the potential to extend maternity protection coverage and support to meet the care needs of the most vulnerable and which do so with a gender transformative focus.     

Effective retirement age from employment and full‐time employment,and the impact of the 2008 crisis

Estimates of effective retirement age based on labour force participation rates are commonly used for actuarial experience review and policy development. However, the transition from work to retirement and the socio‐economic environment have evolved over the years, influenced by a growing role for gradual retirement and the labour market impact of the 2008 economic crisis. Rather than focusing exclusively on retirement ages based on labour force participation rates, this article presents complementary estimates of retirement ages to better assess the effective retirement age from employment. It also introduces the concept of retirement from full‐time employment, showing that the retirement age from full‐time employment is systematically lower than the retirement age from employment. The results reveal that the trend towards an increase in the retirement age has been impacted by economic conditions when considering the effective employment of older workers. Results are presented for different Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 2005–2015.     

Electronic payment mechanisms in social security: Extending the reach of benefit and contribution transactions

More often than not, the existing modes of contribution collection and benefit payment of social security organizations are adapted to the collective arrangements that characterize employer‐employee relationships. Extending coverage to individuals in difficult‐to‐reach groups, however, may require new modalities of service that can cope with many separate, secure transactions rather than a few bulk data transfers between organizations. Recent developments in electronic payment show its wide applicability in enabling huge volumes of such individual transactions. It is in this light that the article explores the potentials of this technology and identifies possible arrangements through which electronic payments could surmount barriers that stand in the way of covering difficult‐to‐reach groups. The high level of mobile phone penetration on a global scale augurs well for using e‐payment mechanisms to collect social security contributions and to deliver social security benefits and services. A generic model is used to describe the requisite elements to implement electronic payments in social protection programmes. Based on empirical evidence of current social protection practices from around the world, five scenarios are presented to describe possible configurations for electronic payment, from the simplest to the most sophisticated. The broader objective is to contribute in a practical manner to the international commitment to extend social protection to all, as defined by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.     

A multifactorial explanation of youth unemployment and the special case of Austria

One of the biggest challenges currently facing European society is the dramatically high level of youth unemployment. Commonly, political solutions and strategies can be found in those countries that have been able to keep youth unemployment low in spite of the financial and economic crises. Austria is such a case. On the basis of European Union Member State data, the article gives a multifactorial explanation of youth unemployment and asks whether these factors can explain relatively low youth unemployment in Austria. With the country's “youth safety net” presented in detail, it is shown that active labour market policy reduces youth unemployment in Austria. The article also points out the limitations of cross‐country comparisons of youth unemployment rates and proposes the use of a greater number of indicators. Finally, the article argues for economic policies to stimulate demand, which have to be based on a political and social commitment to full employment.