Between labour market and retirement pension — flexible transition as a new paradigm for ageing societies?

Increasing the pensionable age due to rising life expectancy meets strong political resistance. For health and labour market reasons it will always be impossible for some to achieve full pension eligibility directly from employment. Even if early retirement options are not restricted the scope for an accumulation of earnings to fund an early pension is often narrowly defined. Consequently, it is impossible for early retirees to compensate for the reductions in the pension they receive. Contrary to the general tendency to increase the pensionable age an alternative reform proposal is currently under discussion in German social policy circles. This involves free choice of retirement at age 60; unlimited accumulation of additional pension entitlements whilst earning; actuarial deductions for early retirement; and consideration of life expectancy in making adjustments to pension awards. This solution relieves the public pension system financially, raises the attractiveness of senior citizens on the labour market, offers the opportunity for a self‐determined transition from work to retirement and reduces political resistance to pension reform. The effect on the labour market for senior citizens remains to be examined.     

The ABCs of nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes

Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes have been successfully implemented since the mid‐1990s in a number of European countries such as Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Sweden. The NDC approach features the lifelong contribution–benefit link of a financial defined contribution (FDC) personal account scheme, but is based on the pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) format. At its start out, the PAYG commitments of the preceding defined benefit (DB) system are converted into individual personal accounts, allowing for a smooth transition from the DB to the DC format, while avoiding the very high transition costs inherent in a move from a traditional PAYG DB scheme to a fully funded FDC scheme. The NDC approach implemented by the rule book is able to manage the economic and demographic risks inherent to a pension scheme and, by design, creates financial sustainability. As in any pension scheme, the linchpin between financial stability and adequacy is the retirement age; in the NDC approach the individual retirement age above the minimum age is by design self‐selected and by incentives should increase the effective retirement age in line with population ageing. As a systemic reform approach NDC has become a strong competitor to piecemeal parametric reforms of traditional nonfinancial DB (NDB) schemes. While frequent, these reforms are far from transparent and usually too timid and too late to create financial sustainability while providing adequate pensions for the average contributor. This article offers a largely non‐technical introduction to NDC schemes, their basic elements and advantages over NDB schemes, the key technical frontiers of the approach, and the experiences of NDC countries.     

The interaction of pillars in multi‐pillar pension systems: A comparison of Canada,Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden

Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have advanced multi‐pillar pension systems. Using micro‐simulations, this article presents a close examination of the interaction of pillars in these countries. The relative importance and the role of the different pension pillars vary from country to country, and according to age, income, gender and socio‐economic dimensions as well as between generations. A further area of investigation is the mitigation capacity of the four pension systems. On the one hand, adverse labour careers lead to lower life‐time earnings and lower private pension accruals. On the other hand, these effects are mitigated through the design of pillars and their interaction. Mitigation is important to income security and stability in retirement and to post‐retirement income distribution. However, mitigation mechanisms come at the cost of incentives. Moreover, in many countries, the generosity of public benefits is set to decrease – increasing the importance of private pensions. This will shift risk and uncertainty from employers and pension institutions to individuals. Thus, risks and uncertainties related to private pensions will become more important, raising questions about the division of responsibilities between public and private pensions, and about the potential of mitigating such risk through pillar interaction. These concerns are further reinforced by labour market changes. Although a pension system free of distortions is inconceivable, this article seeks to contribute to addressing how mitigation should be designed, and how mitigation and risk sharing should be balanced against incentives, challenges which are as much political as technical.     

Working late: policy relevance for older workers in the United States

The United States has seen a sizable increase in older worker labour force participation, although how much of this is due to public policy is uncertain. In fact, outside of academic and policy research circles, there has been relatively little attention paid to older workers and the challenges of an aging workforce in that country. Public policymakers have not demonstrated the same interest in expanding employment opportunities for older workers that they have shown for other groups, or that has been seen in other countries. Still, a number of significant pieces of legislation have been enacted over the past several decades that should be making continued employment at later ages easier, more attractive, or more essential financially. This paper examines those policies. However, because of confounding and conflicting influences from elsewhere, public policy initiatives focusing on older worker employment do not appear to be major contributors to rising labour force participation rates at older ages.     

The old‐age pension law in Mexico: The promise of poverty in old age?

In 1997, Mexico replaced its main old‐age pension system with an individual capitalization system. In 2021, the first people subject to the new system will retire. Using a model that projects demographic and labour variables and using Monte Carlo simulations, the findings of this study show that in 2051 the percentage of men not having a pension will increase from 38 per cent to 59 per cent, and that of women from 44 per cent to 66 per cent. The replacement rate for the average Mexican worker will fall from 70 per cent to 30 per cent. The numbers of people in extreme poverty will increase by almost 2.8 million, representing 9.44 per cent of the population. Alternative scenarios are proposed that involve increasing the contribution rate and raising the retirement age.     

Survivors' pensions and their impact on the Brazilian labour market

In many countries the regulations governing survivors' pensions were established in periods when female labour market participation was lower than at present. However, the current trend in many Latin American countries is for growing levels of female labour participation. In Brazil, where there are no restrictions on the concurrent receipt of retirement and survivors' pensions, and where until recently lifelong pensions could be obtained without any conditionality, not only has the accumulation of such benefits grown, but there are indications that these rules have had a negative impact on women's labour market participation. Analysis of the case of Brazil shows the need for social security regulations to adapt to labour market changes, and underlines the need to acknowledge that social security regulations can actually have an impact on the labour market.     

Substitution and spill-overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe

This article investigates to what extent instrument substitution between early exit pathways took place in Europe between 1995 and 2015. Using Eurostat aggregate data on labour market inactivity and employment rates among the population aged 55–64 in 19 European countries, we analyse substitution effects between pathways and overall spill-over effects into non-employment. In spite of a strong decline in early exit and rises in older workers’ employment rates, findings suggest that instrument substitution was common especially between early retirement and disability. Reductions in early exit coincided with considerable spill-overs into non-employment, yet these spill-overs were limited when pathways contracted simultaneously.     

Youth‐oriented active labour market policies and economic crisis: Explaining policy effort in Greece and Portugal

The starting point of this study is the implementation of seemingly similar youth‐oriented labour market policies in Greece and Portugal. Both countries have suffered high youth unemployment rates and have been pressured to restructure their labour market as part of the rescue programmes adopted during the European sovereign debt crisis. Despite convergence in terms of policy trajectories, there is a significant divergence in employment outcomes. In Portugal, youth‐oriented policies were better‐targeted and structured. Their implementation has been more effective and has involved the social partners from the outset of the crisis. In Greece, policy design failures, administrative weaknesses and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions have limited the dynamics of youth‐oriented policies thus increasing youth insecurity. Τhe analysis suggests that convergence in policy content can be compatible with divergence in terms of outcomes.     

The regulatory challenge of occupational safety and health in the online platform economy

The online platform economy raises a range of intricate legal questions connected to labour law and social security protection. In particular, the atypical forms of labour relationships used by many online platforms (e.g. multilateral, hyper‐temporary, off‐site, autonomous), often contractually defined as independent contracting, have challenged the application of labour and occupational health and safety law in many countries across the world, as the application of these norms tends to be dependent on the existence of an “employment relationship”. These developments are compounding the general increase in atypical employment, especially as a result of the 2007–08 financial and economic crisis. It has mostly fallen to courts to resolve the disputes between online platforms and their online platform workers, but some European Union (EU) Member States (such as France) have taken specific legal measures in response to these difficulties. Also, the EU‐level as such is becoming increasingly involved, with the Court of Justice’s ruling in the case of Uber providing some guidance on the “employment question”, and a pending legislative initiative on a Directive for Transparent and Predictable Working Conditions which may provide minimum labour protection for online platform workers in the EU. This article analyzes the problem of labour law in the online platform economy and surveys the various responses by courts and policy‐makers across the EU, which may furthermore set the tone for developments outside the EU in this area.     

Has the redistributive effect of social transfers and taxes changed over time across countries?

In most Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation Development (OECD), the income gap between rich and poor has widened over the past decades. This article analyses whether and to what extent income taxes and social transfers have contributed to this trend. Has the redistributive impact of different social programmes changed over time? We use microdata from the LIS Cross National Data Center in Luxembourg for the period 1982–2014 and study both the total population and the working‐age population. In contrast to the results of some other studies, especially by the OECD, we do not find that redistribution has declined. Tax‐benefit systems around 2013 are more effective at reducing income inequality compared to the mid‐1980s and the mid‐1990s, especially among the total population. Changes in social programmes are not a driver of greater income inequality across the countries included in this study.     

A multifactorial explanation of youth unemployment and the special case of Austria

One of the biggest challenges currently facing European society is the dramatically high level of youth unemployment. Commonly, political solutions and strategies can be found in those countries that have been able to keep youth unemployment low in spite of the financial and economic crises. Austria is such a case. On the basis of European Union Member State data, the article gives a multifactorial explanation of youth unemployment and asks whether these factors can explain relatively low youth unemployment in Austria. With the country's “youth safety net” presented in detail, it is shown that active labour market policy reduces youth unemployment in Austria. The article also points out the limitations of cross‐country comparisons of youth unemployment rates and proposes the use of a greater number of indicators. Finally, the article argues for economic policies to stimulate demand, which have to be based on a political and social commitment to full employment.     

Older people, work and equal opportunity

People in industrialized countries are living longer, having fewer children and retiring sooner. The proportion of older people in the population is rising; their labour force participation is declining. These trends are arousing apprehensions about future labour supply and pension financing as contributor/beneficiary ratios decrease. A widely advocated policy response is to seek higher participation rates, especially by raising pensionable ages and restricting early retirement. Little has been done to improve the labour market position of seniors. Three-pronged action is needed: promoting training, placement and workplace flexibility; changing attitudes through education and information; and prohibiting age discrimination in employment.     

Social security contributions: Economic and public finance considerations

Social security contributions make up around a fourth of total tax revenue in OECD countries. However, there are concerns on the economic effects of high levies on labour. Recent studies suggest that at least a third of taxes on labour are shifted onto employers, leading to higher wage costs. We find substantial evidence in the literature that the nature of social security contributions matters. With a clear connection between contributions and rights, the employee will perceive this contribution as a price and not as a tax. As a consequence, these contributions will be less distortive in terms of labour supply, wage costs and private savings.     

The decline of substitute pathways into retirement: Empirical evidence from the Dutch health care sector

Early retirement schemes and disability insurance in the Netherlands have undergone several reforms in recent decades. The reforms have increased incentives for older workers to continue working and have decreased the roles of “substitute pathways” into retirement. This article gives an overview of the reforms and, using administrative data for workers in the health care sector, tests a number of hypotheses about the labour market participation of older workers. The results offer two main findings: i) that the Dutch reforms have indeed been effective, as the labour force participation rate of older workers has increased; and ii) the concept of “substitute pathways” has become less relevant as the use of disability insurance has been closed off as an exit route to early retirement. Nevertheless, caution is required before generalizing the implications of these Dutch findings to other OECD countries.     

The challenge of pension reform in Georgia: Non‐contributory pensions and elderly poverty

Georgia's national social security system offers almost universal non‐contributory basic pension coverage. The basic pension has, to date, proved effective in dealing with old‐age poverty. But Georgia's fiscal constraints and ageing population also highlight the importance of improving the pension system, in order to ensure its sustainability. This article presents policy reform choices, which suggest that, in Georgia, pension reform might include increasing the statutory retirement ages and reducing the generosity of benefits through means testing. The case of the Georgian non‐contributory basic pension might hold value for some low‐ and middle‐income countries that are considering the implementation of, or expanding coverage under, a non‐contributory pension programme.     

Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Achieving fuller working lives: labour market and policy issues in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom there has been a shift away from policies promoting early retirement towards an emphasis on extended, fuller working lives. This article examines the nature of policy change in this area and prospects for individuals remaining in work longer. Pension ages for men and women are rising rapidly and by 2028 are likely to reach 67 years. Cash benefits for those out of work before state pension age are becoming harder to access and incentives for working beyond 65 are being enhanced. In this context, restrictions have been placed on the use of mandatory retirement ages by employers. Employees have also been granted the right to request flexible employment. However, a lack of coordinated policy up until now means that important challenges exist with regard to extending working lives. Ill‐health and low levels of qualifications limit the employment prospects of many older people, particularly among those in the poorest segments. Likewise, retention rates of older workers may have improved, but prospects for recruitment in older age remain poor. Policies focusing on the individual have also not yet recognised the extent to which employment in older age is influenced by the household and wider family context.     

Convergence or divergence? How the financial crisis affected European pensioners

The Member States of the European Union entered the financial crisis with very different pension systems. Although the use of standard adequacy measures suggest small impacts from the crisis, alternative measures based on pension wealth estimates indicate stronger effects. While the largest continental systems were left relatively unscathed by the crisis, Mediterranean systems were cut back significantly. This should lead to considerable convergence in system generosity across countries. Despite the cuts, state pensions in the stressed economies should still be generous enough to keep the majority of pensioners out of relative poverty, but this depends on a relatively quick turnaround in labour market performance in these countries.     

France: working longer takes time,in spite of reforms to raise the retirement age

Examination of the French situation from a comparative European perspective exposes the country's poor performance with regard to the employment of seniors and the prolongation of working life. Despite a recent rise in the employment rate of 55–59 year‐olds, worrisome signs have appeared, such as the steep rise in unemployment for this age category; this is indicative of the increasing vulnerability of ageing workers in the labour market. This critical analysis of twenty years of French public policies related to older workers seeks to identify the reasons for France's lag in making working life longer. The principal reason seems to be that public policies have nearly exclusively focused on increasing the supply of senior labour without adequately taking into account incentives for stimulating corporate demand for it. The many pension reforms undertaken from 2003 to 2014 have sought to lift the institutional obstacles to working longer. Accordingly, they have raised both the legal retirement age and the requisite number of quarters of contributions for entitlement to a full pension under Social Security. But effective, active labour market policies for stimulating the demand for senior labour have been lacking.     

The effects on intra‐generational inequality of introducing a funded pension scheme: A microsimulation analysis for Estonia

This article uses a single male cohort microsimulation model to analyse the intra‐generational and distributional effects of a shift in Estonia from a defined benefit pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system to a multi‐pillared system with a PAYG scheme with contribution‐based insurance components and a funded pension scheme. We contribute to the literature on microsimulation by showing how introducing contribution‐based insurance components and compulsory defined contribution (DC) schemes can increase pension inequality. Our results show that in the case of a high level of inequality in labour earnings and high long‐term unemployment rates, such as in Estonia, the introduction of a very strong link between contributions and future benefits leads to considerably higher inequality in pension incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient. Simulation results for Estonia suggest that inequality in old‐age pension incomes more than doubles when the reforms mature. In contrast, the inequality in replacement rates decreases.