Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Contributions‐financed cash benefits: Selected examples of tiered pension systems

This article addresses the link between pensions and occupational earnings using the example of social security contributions in selected OECD countries. The rules of the pension schemes studied point towards a very strong link between occupational earnings and pension level. However, certain pension calculation methods, through pension calculation parameters or through the existence of tools to compensate for certain career discontinuities, may distort this link in the majority of the countries studied. Therefore, the examination of pension calculation parameters and of solidarity measures attached to retirement is necessary to provide a more finely‐tuned evaluation of the link between occupational earnings and pension level. Ultimately, comparison of pension systems across countries remains challenging given their specificities.     

An actuarial balance sheet of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme

Following the recent update of the international System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), internationally comparable estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) of unfunded social security pension schemes will soon be available in the supplementary table to the National Accounts. Against this background, this article analyzes the medium‐term sustainability of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme (Alters‐ und Hinterlassenenversicherung – AHV). This is achieved by estimating a “Swedish” actuarial balance sheet, which compares pension liabilities with the explicit and implicit assets of the pension scheme. Our results show that the current financing of the AHV is unsustainable, with about 30 per cent of the liabilities not backed by corresponding assets. In order to close this financing gap either the contribution rate should rise from 8.4 per cent to 12 per cent or all pension liabilities should be cut by about 38 per cent.     

A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits

This article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non‐contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy‐makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.     

Substitution and spill-overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe

This article investigates to what extent instrument substitution between early exit pathways took place in Europe between 1995 and 2015. Using Eurostat aggregate data on labour market inactivity and employment rates among the population aged 55–64 in 19 European countries, we analyse substitution effects between pathways and overall spill-over effects into non-employment. In spite of a strong decline in early exit and rises in older workers’ employment rates, findings suggest that instrument substitution was common especially between early retirement and disability. Reductions in early exit coincided with considerable spill-overs into non-employment, yet these spill-overs were limited when pathways contracted simultaneously.     

Convergence or divergence? How the financial crisis affected European pensioners

The Member States of the European Union entered the financial crisis with very different pension systems. Although the use of standard adequacy measures suggest small impacts from the crisis, alternative measures based on pension wealth estimates indicate stronger effects. While the largest continental systems were left relatively unscathed by the crisis, Mediterranean systems were cut back significantly. This should lead to considerable convergence in system generosity across countries. Despite the cuts, state pensions in the stressed economies should still be generous enough to keep the majority of pensioners out of relative poverty, but this depends on a relatively quick turnaround in labour market performance in these countries.     

Developing a compliance‐based approach to address error,evasion and fraud in social security systems

To support the improved administration of social security programmes, this article presents a preliminary compliance risk management (CRM) model for social security institutions to use as a tool to help address the operational challenges of error, evasion and fraud. Within the model, error, evasion and fraud are collectively referred to as issues of non‐compliance. The model's framework addresses non‐compliance in an integrated manner with regard to the main functions of contribution collection and benefit administration. The model aims to facilitate tackling these important issues by better permitting the identified challenges to be prioritized and, thereafter, addressed based on the assessed severity of their impacts and the cost‐effectiveness of the selected responses. Three generic types of intervention are recommended to tackle non‐compliance worldwide: prevention, detection and deterrence. The article's objective is to contribute to ongoing work to develop an encompassing CRM framework for all social security systems.     

The interaction of pillars in multi‐pillar pension systems: A comparison of Canada,Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden

Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have advanced multi‐pillar pension systems. Using micro‐simulations, this article presents a close examination of the interaction of pillars in these countries. The relative importance and the role of the different pension pillars vary from country to country, and according to age, income, gender and socio‐economic dimensions as well as between generations. A further area of investigation is the mitigation capacity of the four pension systems. On the one hand, adverse labour careers lead to lower life‐time earnings and lower private pension accruals. On the other hand, these effects are mitigated through the design of pillars and their interaction. Mitigation is important to income security and stability in retirement and to post‐retirement income distribution. However, mitigation mechanisms come at the cost of incentives. Moreover, in many countries, the generosity of public benefits is set to decrease – increasing the importance of private pensions. This will shift risk and uncertainty from employers and pension institutions to individuals. Thus, risks and uncertainties related to private pensions will become more important, raising questions about the division of responsibilities between public and private pensions, and about the potential of mitigating such risk through pillar interaction. These concerns are further reinforced by labour market changes. Although a pension system free of distortions is inconceivable, this article seeks to contribute to addressing how mitigation should be designed, and how mitigation and risk sharing should be balanced against incentives, challenges which are as much political as technical.     

Global–regional interaction to extend access to social protection for migrant workers: Insights from ASEAN and MERCOSUR

Universal access to social protection for migrant workers is emerging as a problematic issue in the implementation of free movement regimes at a regional level. This article focuses on the concept of regional governance as a possible mechanism to address the unsolved challenges of social security regimes to extend coverage. To this end, the article looks at current legal developments in two regional projects (ASEAN and MERCOSUR) to identify a creative approach to strengthen the development of national floors of social protection. The interest of using these case studies lies in exploring whether the regional integration process can play a major role in the progressive extension of social protection rights to migrant workers by facilitating the adoption of social security agreements.     

The regulatory challenge of occupational safety and health in the online platform economy

The online platform economy raises a range of intricate legal questions connected to labour law and social security protection. In particular, the atypical forms of labour relationships used by many online platforms (e.g. multilateral, hyper‐temporary, off‐site, autonomous), often contractually defined as independent contracting, have challenged the application of labour and occupational health and safety law in many countries across the world, as the application of these norms tends to be dependent on the existence of an “employment relationship”. These developments are compounding the general increase in atypical employment, especially as a result of the 2007–08 financial and economic crisis. It has mostly fallen to courts to resolve the disputes between online platforms and their online platform workers, but some European Union (EU) Member States (such as France) have taken specific legal measures in response to these difficulties. Also, the EU‐level as such is becoming increasingly involved, with the Court of Justice’s ruling in the case of Uber providing some guidance on the “employment question”, and a pending legislative initiative on a Directive for Transparent and Predictable Working Conditions which may provide minimum labour protection for online platform workers in the EU. This article analyzes the problem of labour law in the online platform economy and surveys the various responses by courts and policy‐makers across the EU, which may furthermore set the tone for developments outside the EU in this area.     

Extending maternity protection to all women: Trends,challenges and opportunities

Protecting maternity at work has been one of the primary concerns of the International Labour Organization since its foundation in 1919. Along with fundamental human rights treaties, the adoption of the Maternity Protection Convention, 2000 (No. 183) and, more recently, the ILO Recommendation concerning National Floors of Social Protection, 2012 (No. 202), have marked the universalization of the right to maternity protection and call for its extension to all women in line with the principle of equal opportunity and treatment between women and men. In the framework of these historical developments, this article presents evidence of how national legislative provisions on paid maternity leave have improved in the light of the principles of international labour standards, although a large majority of women workers are still not adequately protected in case of maternity. The article then addresses patterns of exclusion from maternity protection in law and practice, and concludes by discussing some social protection programmes that have the potential to extend maternity protection coverage and support to meet the care needs of the most vulnerable and which do so with a gender transformative focus.