Lessons from China on different approaches to pension coverage extension

Achieving universal pension coverage is both an aspiration and a challenge for many developing economies. Traditional contributory schemes are less effective in extending pension coverage to workers who are not in the formal sectors of the economy. As an alternative, non‐contributory schemes have gained popularity in recent years. China’s pension reforms mirror this global trend. The introduction of a contribution‐based pension scheme for urban employees (Employees’ Pension) was followed by a scheme for rural and urban residents (Residents’ Pension), which is partly government financed and partly contributory, with multiple options for premium payment. This study uses nationally representative survey data collected in 2016 to compare the inclusiveness of the two schemes. It finds that access to the Residents’ Pension scheme is more equal than the Employees’ Pension. Lower status workers in terms of education, employment, income and hukou‐migration are more likely to participate in the Residents’ Pension as opposed to the Employees’ Pension, compared with higher status workers. The Chinese experience suggests that a workable solution for pension extension in low‐ and middle‐income countries is to have a scheme that is flexible, affordable and responsive to the diverse needs of the population.     

The challenge of pension reform in Georgia: Non‐contributory pensions and elderly poverty

Georgia's national social security system offers almost universal non‐contributory basic pension coverage. The basic pension has, to date, proved effective in dealing with old‐age poverty. But Georgia's fiscal constraints and ageing population also highlight the importance of improving the pension system, in order to ensure its sustainability. This article presents policy reform choices, which suggest that, in Georgia, pension reform might include increasing the statutory retirement ages and reducing the generosity of benefits through means testing. The case of the Georgian non‐contributory basic pension might hold value for some low‐ and middle‐income countries that are considering the implementation of, or expanding coverage under, a non‐contributory pension programme.     

China’s development of a multi‐tier pension system

China has made a number of major changes to its pension system in the period 2014–2020, and is in the process of establishing a multi‐tier old‐age pension system, consisting of programmes provided by the government, voluntary programmes provided by enterprises, and voluntary programmes established by individuals. Policy objectives are to reduce the fragmentation in its pension system; deal with population ageing; and diversify risks by involving the government, enterprises as well as individuals. This article shows that while China has a complex system for urban workers, the coverage provided by its multi‐tier system is uneven, with the second and third tiers being in the early stages of development.     

Contributions‐financed cash benefits: Selected examples of tiered pension systems

This article addresses the link between pensions and occupational earnings using the example of social security contributions in selected OECD countries. The rules of the pension schemes studied point towards a very strong link between occupational earnings and pension level. However, certain pension calculation methods, through pension calculation parameters or through the existence of tools to compensate for certain career discontinuities, may distort this link in the majority of the countries studied. Therefore, the examination of pension calculation parameters and of solidarity measures attached to retirement is necessary to provide a more finely‐tuned evaluation of the link between occupational earnings and pension level. Ultimately, comparison of pension systems across countries remains challenging given their specificities.     

The effects on intra‐generational inequality of introducing a funded pension scheme: A microsimulation analysis for Estonia

This article uses a single male cohort microsimulation model to analyse the intra‐generational and distributional effects of a shift in Estonia from a defined benefit pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system to a multi‐pillared system with a PAYG scheme with contribution‐based insurance components and a funded pension scheme. We contribute to the literature on microsimulation by showing how introducing contribution‐based insurance components and compulsory defined contribution (DC) schemes can increase pension inequality. Our results show that in the case of a high level of inequality in labour earnings and high long‐term unemployment rates, such as in Estonia, the introduction of a very strong link between contributions and future benefits leads to considerably higher inequality in pension incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient. Simulation results for Estonia suggest that inequality in old‐age pension incomes more than doubles when the reforms mature. In contrast, the inequality in replacement rates decreases.     

Developing countries and systemic pension reforms: Reflections on some emerging problems

Since 1981 close to forty countries have introduced systemic pension reforms that have replaced all or part of prior pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) schemes with privately managed funded defined contribution (FDC) pillars or systems. However, over the past decade about half of these countries have subsequently cutback on, or entirely eliminated, these FDC schemes. In this article we explore some of the reasons why this reversal is often taking place in developing countries. As part of our analysis we propose a new pension reform typology that goes beyond the commonly used dichotomy between PAYG and pension privatization. We identify and discuss four factors that are of particular relevance to those seeking to understand the pension policy reversals that have been taking place in many developing countries: low pension coverage and incentive incompatibility, triple burden costs, tradeoffs between pension reforms and social pensions, and difficulties with annuitization.     

The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?

This article examines the sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme – the main component in China’s overall old‐age support system. It looks at the sustainability of the programme generally and, in particular, at case studies of two areas (Tianjin municipality and Guangxi province) to highlight both the extent of regional variations and the common challenges facing Chinese policy‐makers. It discusses a number of key issues that should assist policy‐makers to address the challenge of population ageing. It concludes that the challenge facing China is no more severe than that already faced by other countries in Europe and Asia. Moreover, the ageing of the population is not uniform across the regions of China. Consequently, those areas where the demographic shift is more advanced will provide some opportunity for policy experimentation. Given the experience to date of slow progress on various aspects of pension policy reform, the article suggests that it seems unlikely that paradigmatic change will be significant. Nonetheless, the study suggests a range of parametric policy measures that China should consider. The challenge facing China’s policy‐makers is to ensure that China gets old and rich at the same time.     

The ABCs of nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes

Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes have been successfully implemented since the mid‐1990s in a number of European countries such as Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Sweden. The NDC approach features the lifelong contribution–benefit link of a financial defined contribution (FDC) personal account scheme, but is based on the pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) format. At its start out, the PAYG commitments of the preceding defined benefit (DB) system are converted into individual personal accounts, allowing for a smooth transition from the DB to the DC format, while avoiding the very high transition costs inherent in a move from a traditional PAYG DB scheme to a fully funded FDC scheme. The NDC approach implemented by the rule book is able to manage the economic and demographic risks inherent to a pension scheme and, by design, creates financial sustainability. As in any pension scheme, the linchpin between financial stability and adequacy is the retirement age; in the NDC approach the individual retirement age above the minimum age is by design self‐selected and by incentives should increase the effective retirement age in line with population ageing. As a systemic reform approach NDC has become a strong competitor to piecemeal parametric reforms of traditional nonfinancial DB (NDB) schemes. While frequent, these reforms are far from transparent and usually too timid and too late to create financial sustainability while providing adequate pensions for the average contributor. This article offers a largely non‐technical introduction to NDC schemes, their basic elements and advantages over NDB schemes, the key technical frontiers of the approach, and the experiences of NDC countries.     

Pension reforms in EU11 countries: An evaluation of post‐socialist pension policies

This article evaluates the pension policy pathways of the 11 former state socialist nations that have joined the European Union since 2004. Focusing primarily on the post‐2004 period, the analysis discusses the most important measurable outcomes of these countries’ pension reforms, in terms of poverty alleviation, pension adequacy and fiscal sustainability. Going beyond the quantifiable concepts, we also investigate the quality of the 11 countries’ pension systems in terms of equity as well as efficiency, emphasizing the less conspicuous design errors present in these systems. Although these errors have received little attention to date, they may harm pension schemes along several dimensions, including their fiscal sustainability.     

The gender gap in pensions in Latin America

Lower female lifetime labour market participation rates, greater interruptions during their working lives, and wage gaps contribute to create gender gaps in pensions at the time of retirement. The design of social security systems may reinforce or attenuate these gaps. This article provides new evidence on gender gaps in access to pensions and in pension income in four Southern Cone countries in Latin America and analyses their evolution between 2000 and 2013, showing significant improvements in both gaps, with differential patterns by countries. The decrease in the gender gap in pension income has been particularly significant in Argentina and Brazil. In both cases, the largest increases in pension values during the period correspond to the lowest income percentiles, where women are overrepresented. The application of redistributive policies in these countries, aimed at reducing poverty and inequality but not necessarily focused on gender equity, has had positive and probably unintended consequences in terms of reduction in gender gaps in pensions.     

Pension reforms in Chile and social security principles, 1981–2015

Chile pioneered in Latin America not only the introduction of social security pensions, but the structural reform that privatized them and a process of “re‐reform” implementing key improvements. A Presidential Commission in Chile, appointed in 2014 to evaluate reform progress and remaining problems in the pension system, released its report in September 2015. In light of the Commission's findings, the article assesses Chile's compliance with International Labour Organization social security guiding principles: social dialogue, universal coverage, equal treatment, social solidarity, gender equity, adequacy of benefits, efficiency and affordable administrative cost, social participation in management, state role and supervision, and financial sustainability. The exercise follows three stages: the structural reform (1981–2008), the re‐reform (2008–2015), and the Presidential Commission proposals (2015)     

An Analysis of Selected Pension and Health Care Initiatives for Informal Sector Workers in India

India's demographic trends portend moderately rapid ageing of the population. This, combined with the limited coverage of pension and health care programmes in terms of population, types of risks covered, and benefit levels has led to greater urgency in extending the coverage and reform directions of the current pension and health care programmes. This article analyses three pension and health care initiatives in India directed at the workers and their families engaged in the informal sector. The first initiative, India's National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP), undertaken in 1995 provides budget‐financed transfers targeted at older persons. It is funded by the Union government but implemented by the state governments. The second initiative, called Swavalamban, was started in 2010, but has been subsumed under Atal Pension Yojana (APY), in the 2015–16 budget. Both are voluntary co‐contributory initiatives aimed at providing access to retirement income to low‐income individuals (government co‐contributing with the individual). Unlike Swavalamban, the APY initiative has provisions for minimum guaranteed pension benefits, with contributions required by the members adjusted accordingly. Effectiveness in increasing enrollment and in sustaining contributions over a longer period will impact on the extent of retirement income security obtained by the members. The third initiative, Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), is insurance‐based and aims to provide hospital care to low‐income households. The article argues that for improving outcomes of these initiatives, more effective implementation, greater fiscal resources, and an integrated and systemic approach which is aided by technology‐enabled platforms such as Aadhaar, will be needed.     

The interaction of pillars in multi‐pillar pension systems: A comparison of Canada,Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden

Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have advanced multi‐pillar pension systems. Using micro‐simulations, this article presents a close examination of the interaction of pillars in these countries. The relative importance and the role of the different pension pillars vary from country to country, and according to age, income, gender and socio‐economic dimensions as well as between generations. A further area of investigation is the mitigation capacity of the four pension systems. On the one hand, adverse labour careers lead to lower life‐time earnings and lower private pension accruals. On the other hand, these effects are mitigated through the design of pillars and their interaction. Mitigation is important to income security and stability in retirement and to post‐retirement income distribution. However, mitigation mechanisms come at the cost of incentives. Moreover, in many countries, the generosity of public benefits is set to decrease – increasing the importance of private pensions. This will shift risk and uncertainty from employers and pension institutions to individuals. Thus, risks and uncertainties related to private pensions will become more important, raising questions about the division of responsibilities between public and private pensions, and about the potential of mitigating such risk through pillar interaction. These concerns are further reinforced by labour market changes. Although a pension system free of distortions is inconceivable, this article seeks to contribute to addressing how mitigation should be designed, and how mitigation and risk sharing should be balanced against incentives, challenges which are as much political as technical.     

Inadequate Policy or Operational Failure? The Potential Crisis of the Korean National Pension Programme

The Korean National Pension Programme is one of the main pillars of the Korean welfare state. From its introduction in 1988, the Programme had come to include 26.8 per cent of the economically active population and had accumulated a pension fund equal to 24 per cent of government expenditure by 1994. Behind such a promising facade, the Korean National Pension Programme is likely to face financial crisis without a major reform. This paper seeks to answer the question as to whether the crisis will arise due to inadequate policy design or to operational failure. The latter cause may require privatizing the Pension Fund in order to operate more efficiently, while the former one would demand rectifying the defects of policy design. This study argues that the crisis is strongly related to inadequate policy design, which promises generous pensions and at the same time requires only a small amount in contributions; although there have also been operational inefficiencies in running the programme. It also argues that inadequacy in policy design stemmed from developmentalism embedded in the Korean welfare state, which regards the National Pension Programme mainly as a measure for mobilizing cheap capital. In conclusion, this paper argues that the Korean welfare state, created in the era of economic development, is transient in nature and that it needs a major reform not only to contain the cost but also to meet the growing demand for social welfare.     

The old‐age pension law in Mexico: The promise of poverty in old age?

In 1997, Mexico replaced its main old‐age pension system with an individual capitalization system. In 2021, the first people subject to the new system will retire. Using a model that projects demographic and labour variables and using Monte Carlo simulations, the findings of this study show that in 2051 the percentage of men not having a pension will increase from 38 per cent to 59 per cent, and that of women from 44 per cent to 66 per cent. The replacement rate for the average Mexican worker will fall from 70 per cent to 30 per cent. The numbers of people in extreme poverty will increase by almost 2.8 million, representing 9.44 per cent of the population. Alternative scenarios are proposed that involve increasing the contribution rate and raising the retirement age.     

An actuarial balance sheet of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme

Following the recent update of the international System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), internationally comparable estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) of unfunded social security pension schemes will soon be available in the supplementary table to the National Accounts. Against this background, this article analyzes the medium‐term sustainability of the Swiss old‐age pension scheme (Alters‐ und Hinterlassenenversicherung – AHV). This is achieved by estimating a “Swedish” actuarial balance sheet, which compares pension liabilities with the explicit and implicit assets of the pension scheme. Our results show that the current financing of the AHV is unsustainable, with about 30 per cent of the liabilities not backed by corresponding assets. In order to close this financing gap either the contribution rate should rise from 8.4 per cent to 12 per cent or all pension liabilities should be cut by about 38 per cent.     

Extending coverage under the Argentinian pension system: Distribution of access and prospects for universal coverage

One of the main challenges facing social policy in Latin American is to guarantee social security coverage for the entire population in the presence of a large informal sector. In Argentina, a regional pioneer in terms of the development of its pension system, more than one third of those of retirement age were without benefits in 2005. Since then, considerable progress has been made in extending coverage thanks to the introduction of a programme that has reduced contribution requirements and allocated benefits to a large number of seniors previously excluded from the system. This article analyzes the impact of this process in Argentina on the level and distribution of coverage, identifies changes in socio‐demographic factors which affect inclusion/exclusion in the social security system, and discusses remaining obstacles to the provision of universal coverage in the medium and long term.     

The Reform of Mutual Aid Associations in Japan: Civil Service Employee Pension Reform in 2012

Civil service employee pension reform began by removing non‐clerical work from the main body of the Mutual Aid Association (MAA) pension system. Further changes were based on administrative reform and pension jealousy. In particular, the Nakasone cabinet's administrative reform privatized the non‐clerical sector. Before the 1979 reform, the pensionable age was 55 for the MAA and 60 for the Employee Pension Insurance (EPI) scheme. The MAA pension benefit formula adopted the final salary system, which was larger than the average lifetime salary calculation used for EPI benefits. The final salary system was abolished during the 1986 reform. Public employee criticism over “Amakudari” led to further civil service employee remuneration reform in 2005. In 2007, the Social Insurance Agency pension record scandal led to a change of government by 2009. The biggest reform of the MAA pension system was the abolishment of the occupational portion of the pension, a compromise between the government and unions. We project that this compromise will cost 22 trillion yen over 90 years old. After 2055, the newly established MAA pension scheme will be abolished; thus the public pension may finally be sustainable.     

Extending access to contributory pensions: The case of Uruguay

Since the 1980s, many Latin American countries have tightened access to contributory pensions, with financial sustainability being a main concern. Studies suggest that a sizable share of contributors would not be able to comply with stricter access conditions, since observed contribution densities were low. While most Latin American countries lack complete work history records, the observed density of contributions offered strong evidence of short contribution histories, in particular for low‐income workers and women. In the last decade these facts drove a new wave of reforms, in the form of less demanding eligibility requirements to access pensions and the need for a gender perspective. Uruguay took part in both processes, increasing vesting period conditions in 1996, then lowering them and granting childcare credits in 2008. In this article, we analyse the effects that less strict eligibility requirements would have on pension entitlements in Uruguay, estimating complete contribution histories using administrative records. Work history records have been kept since April 1996 only, meaning there are still no complete work histories. The study finds that pension rights would increase, in particular for women. The main effect would be driven by the lower contribution requirement. In addition, childcare credits would further reduce the gender gap in terms of access to benefits. The case of Uruguay is relevant in the regional context, as most Latin American countries are ageing rapidly and can learn from the Uruguayan experience, a country with vital statistics closer to those of developed countries. Also, recent reforms in the region show shared concerns on pension rights and the gender gap.     

Including informal economy workers in contributory social protection: Current challenges in Latin America

Owing to a favourable economic situation and to national labour market and social protection policy reforms, Latin America has witnessed significant progress in social protection coverage. Some countries, however, have seen weaker progress, with stagnant coverage levels. Several factors underlie the extension of pensions and health care coverage and the formalization of the labour market: substantial improvements in the quality of employment, more flexible eligibility criteria for contributory coverage, and the strengthening of the supervisory and regulatory roles of the State. This article first addresses the link between social protection and informality in Latin America to show the relationship between informal labour markets, the lack of social protection and the scale of unpaid contributions. Also highlighted is regional progress in extending social protection as a result of labour market formalization. Countries in the region have used various policies to encourage formalization and these have also helped to reduce wage inequalities, since formalization has had especially beneficial effects on low‐income sectors. Finally, we discuss dichotomous views on social protection financing in the region that tend to place contributory and non‐contributory financing in opposition to one another but do so in favour of the latter, tend to support proposals for limited coverage, and which do not challenge the stratification of access to social protection. The move towards a convergence of benefits is deemed essential: strategies to universalize social protection in the region should not focus exclusively on increasing resources, but must address institutional change as a crucial part of the locus of innovation.