刍议再就业“主体行为”研究

我国学术界一向忽视“主体”研究 ,而主体概念的引入 ,则可将我国的再就业研究推向一个新的境界 :重新认识再就业背景 ,再造劳动就业的新格局 ,深刻认识和把握劳动交换领域的客观规律 ,积极改善企业主体和工会主体的发展空间。我国的国情、我国的改革、我国的社会主义制度都需要再就业的主体研究     

Wage and (un-)employment effects of an ageing workforce

Given the empirical fact that workers of different ages are not perfect substitutes in production, this paper explores how change in the age pattern affects wages and (un)employment. We develop a general equilibrium model where wages for young and old workers are set by monopoly unions. Contrary to the common wisdom on this topic, we show that an increase in the relative number of older workers has no effect on young and old unemployment. If, however, unions attach a higher weight to the wishes of the old, the unemployment rate of the old (young) will increase (decrease). In this case, we observe a redistribution of wage income from the young to the old.     

失业保险金给付博弈分析及其优化设计

我国现行失业保险制度运行中存在失业保险金的给付两难,给付双方是一种博弈关系。通过构建政府与失业人员的失业保险金给付静态博弈和完全而不完美信息动态博弈并进行解析,需要从缩短失业保险金的给付期限、充分发挥失业保险金的促进就业功能等方面对现行失业保险制度进行优化设计。     

论失业“救济”制度向就业“保险”制度的转型及其政策探析

我国的失业保险就其目标定位和运行状况看,基本还是一种“生活保障型”的失业保障制度,其“再就业导向”功能明显不足,甚至严重缺失,难以适应我国劳动力市场不断攀高的失业人口的压力。必须进行制度设计理念的转变和功能调整,按‘就业是最好的失业保险’原则,重构以促进失业者尽快就业和鼓励企业扩大雇佣、稳定就业为导向的“就业保险型”失业保障制度。     

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.     

A dynamic analysis of women’s employment exits

This research examines women’s rates of leaving a job to become nonemployed (unemployed or out of the labor force) using a stochastic, continuous-time model. The data consist of employment histories of white women constructed from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (1968-1973). The results demonstrate the importance of examining the underlying processes in women’s employment. Several differences are found between the determinants of employment exits and what might be expected from the cross-sectional and panel literature on female labor force participation. The findings also provide evidence of the interdependence of fertility and employment, with young children increasing rates of employment exits and with high wages on ajob decreasing rates ofleaving a job because of a pregnancy. Finally, involuntary employment terminations are examined, and their transition rates are found to decrease with job wages and job tenure and to increase when a woman has children.     

苏州市两社区下岗失业人员社区就业调查分析

实现再就业的一个可行途径是社区就业。目前,发达国家的社区就业份额约占就业总人口的20-30%,发展中国家的社区就业份额约占就业总人口的12-18%,而我国只有3.9%。针对下岗失业人员的剧增和社区就业的巨大发展潜力,从中央一直到苏州市都将社区就业与下岗再就业紧密联系起来,将它作为努力开辟就业门路,积极创造就业岗位的一个途径。在苏州市劳动和社会保障局支持下,2003年8月,本文作者对苏州市两个具有代表性的社区进行了实地调查,取得了很多宝贵的资料。在总结经验的同时,也发现了一定的问题,并提出相应的建议,即领导必须重视;需要大力挖掘潜力;重视制度的执行;针对4048的培训必须切实展开,并保证其效果,社区岗位的培训是突破口。     

征地失业者的就业意愿及其影响因素——基于重庆市第六次人口普查的实证

文章基于全国第六次人口普查数据的分析,描述了征地失业者的区域空间分布、受教育程度和年龄结构方面的主要特点,并借助重庆市第六次人口普查长表数据系统探讨了区域分布、生活来源和个体特征对征地失业者就业意愿的影响,阐释了分析结果对提升征地失业者就业参与意愿的政策意义。总体而言,与其他主要失业群体相比,征地失业者在人力资本和年龄上都处于劣势;在其他条件相同的情况下,区域发展水平越高、生活来源保障度越弱、受教育程度越低、外出经历越被动的征地失业者,其就业参与意愿的概率比更小。结合其他相关分析结果推断,失地农民的就业参与意愿或许是当前及今后征用土地都会面临的一个社会问题。在人口城镇化加速的背景下,提高失地农民的就业意愿对于土地征用的制度安排及其影响群体可持续生计获取尤显重要。     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率关系研究——基于误差修正模型的分析

失业是市场经济条件下不可避免的社会风险。失业保险是解决失业所产生的不利因素的社会机制,对一国的社会保障和福利水平有重要的作用。本文通过建立误差修正模型,对我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率的相互关系进行研究。我国失业保险与城镇失业率之间存在着双向格兰杰因果关系,即失业保险支出的增加会导致城镇失业率的增加,城镇失业率的增加会引起失业保险支出的增加。另外,我国失业保险支出的变动对城镇失业率的影响是正激励与负激励并存。     

The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies

The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies, coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998     

Population policy: Authoritarianism versus cooperation

The people whose interests are most adversely affected by frequent bearing and rearing of children are young women. Social changes that expand the decisional power of young women (such as expansion of female literacy, or enhancement of female employment opportunity) can, thus, be major forces in the direction of reducing fertility rates. This “cooperative” route seems to act more securely – and often much faster – than the use of “coercion” in reducing family size and birth rates. This essay examines the comparative evidence from India and China on this subject as well as the interregional contrasts within India. JEL classification: J11, J13, O15 Received August 20, 1996/Accepted November 14, 1996     

性别对“4050”失业者的失业持续时间和再就业机会的影响——运用生存模型对厦门市失业者的经验研究

本文应用生存模型中的非参数法和COX半参数法,经验分析了性别对厦门市"4050"失业者的失业持续时间与再就业机会的影响。经验分析结果表明,性别对"4050"失业者的失业持续时间与再就业机会具有比较显著的影响,男性的平均失业持续时间为21.7个月,比女性的16.9个月长4.8个月,其再就业机会是女性的0.674倍。本文认为"4050"劳动力再就业市场上的阴盛阳衰现象在于"4050"劳动力再就业市场上男性的工作机会及接受工作的概率低于女性。因此,转变就业观念,择业不挑肥拣瘦,是促进再就业和构建和谐社会的重要途径。     

The ins and outs of unemployment and the assimilation of recent immigrants in Spain

We study the employment assimilation of the recent wave of immigration in Spain for the period 2002–2006. We differentiate the immigrants by their year of arrival in Spain. Following Shimer (Am Econ Rev 95(1):25–49, 2005) and using data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey, we calculate the job finding and the job exit rates. Throughout the period, immigrants show higher job finding and job exit rates. We also present a search and matching model with search intensity, where natives, new immigrants, and old immigrants compete in the labor market. The simulated model is able to reproduce the differences observed in their job finding and unemployment rates.     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain

This paper investigates how education and the labour market affect Spanish individual decisions on the timing of marriage and births, using a Cox hazard approach. It disentangles men and women, and two groups, Cohort 1945–1960 and Cohort 1961–1977. Results show that female employment delays marriage in Cohort 1945–1960, but it has a reverse effect in Cohort 1961–1977. We also find evidence that employment is a barrier for family formation since employed women postpone births in both cohorts. The precarious Spanish labour markets, captured by female unemployment rates, delay family formation, especially by putting off marriage. Male unemployment, at the individual level, impacts negatively on fertility only through delaying marriage.

Last Hired,First Fired? Black-White Unemployment and the Business Cycle

Studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989–2004, this article provides the first detailed examination of labor market transitions for primeage black and white men to test the last hired, first fired hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks appear to be initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from nonparticipation. The narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring.     

Cyclical variations in unemployment duration

In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high. Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999     

失业空间特征分析

本文利用2000年的第五次人口普查长表资料对我国的失业问题做简要分析,并对我国失业人口的空间分布特征作简要的阐述,结合区域的产业及就业结构特征分析区域的失业问题。     

中国就业增长机理与后金融危机时期的就业促进

通过对1991-2007年就业状况的研究可以发现,中国的就业增长在宏观产业领域主要产生于非农产业,在微观经济单位主要产生于非公有制经济单位和非正规就业部门．而导致就业增长缓慢的根本原因在于片面追求经济增长、依靠投资拉动的经济发展模式。经济复苏并不一定能够带来相应的就业复苏．在经历全球金融危机之后技能不足所导致的结构性失业有可能成为我国失业的主要形式。为了促进经济复苏和经济发展方式转变．就业增长应成为宏观经济管理的优先目标,为此应在城乡统筹发展和区域协调发展、支持中小企业发展和个人创业、加强城乡一体化的职业教育培训体系建设等方面做出努力。