On the Survival of Centenarians and the Span of Life

It has been argued in the literature that the observed mortality crossover among older black Americans relative to the white population is a result of ‘differential early mortality which selects the least robust persons from the disadvantaged population at relatively earlier ages so that, at advanced ages, the disadvantaged population has proportionately more robust persons’ (Kenneth G. Manton). The authors examine the plausibility of the observed black mortality crossover and the heterogeneity argument supporting its existence. In addition to citing evidence from the literature, they use life tables from various countries known to have good mortality data to explore the relation between mortality in childhood and at younger adult ages and mortality in old age for cohorts and periods. Analysis suggests that the association between childhood and old-age mortality for cohorts is positive, implying that observed mortality crossovers are produced by deficient data rather than population heterogeneity.     

Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient.     

人口质量与西部大开发

本文从宣传倡导避免近邻婚配为话题,简述了更新生育观念、扩大通婚圈、走出婚育生活误区,降低出生缺陷率,提高西部地区人口质量,促进西部大开发的重要作用。     

The Schooling of Offspring and the Survival of Parents

Contemporary stratification research on developed societies usually views the intergenerational transmission of educational advantage as a one-way effect from parent to child. However, parents’ investment in their offspring’s schooling may yield significant returns for parents themselves in later life. For instance, well-educated offspring have greater knowledge of health and technology to share with their parents and more financial means to provide for them than do their less-educated counterparts. We use data from the 1992–2006 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine whether adult offspring’s educational attainments are associated with parents’ survival in the United States. We show that adult offspring’s educational attainments have independent effects on their parents’ mortality, even after controlling for parents’ own socioeconomic resources. This relationship is more pronounced for deaths that are linked to behavioral factors: most notably, chronic lower respiratory disease and lung cancer. Furthermore, at least part of the association between offspring’s schooling and parents’ survival may be explained by parents’ health behaviors, including smoking and physical activity. These findings suggest that one way to influence the health of the elderly is through their offspring. To harness the full value of schooling for health, then, a family and multigenerational perspective is needed.     

Second-Generation Outcomes of the Great Migration

The mass migration of African Americans out of the South during the first two-thirds of the twentieth century represents one of the most significant internal migration flows in U.S. history. Those undertaking the Great Migration left the South in search of a better life, and their move transformed the cultural, social, and political dynamics of African American life specifically and U.S. society more generally. Recent research offers conflicting evidence regarding the migrants’ success in translating their geographic mobility into economic mobility. Due in part to the lack of a large body of longitudinal data, almost all studies of the Great Migration have focused on the migrants themselves, usually over short periods of their working lives. Using longitudinally linked census data, we take a broader view, investigating the long-term economic and social effects of the Great Migration on the migrants’ children. Our results reveal modest but statistically significant advantages in education, income, and poverty status for the African American children of the Great Migration relative to the children of southerners who remained in the South. In contrast, second-generation white migrants experienced few benefits from migrating relative to southern or northern stayers.     

Income-tax allowances and the family in Great Britain

Income-tax allowances for dependants in Great Britain give financial aid to family-supporting taxpayers which is similar in nature to cash payments received from the State under the family allowances programme. In effect, by differentiating between single and family-supporting taxpayers, the State is sharing the financial burden of caring for each taxpayer's family. In this article an estimate is made of the total cost of such dependants' allowances to the State in the form of lost tax revenues. Analysing the cost of income-tax allowances by income group and family size, the author attempts to point out certain inequities in the State's programme which is aimed at partially alleviating the relatively unfavourable position of the family-supporting taxpayer.     

Habitat stability and the larval mosquito community in treeholes and other containers on a temperate Island

The temporal fluctuation of water levels and the presence of mosquito larvae were investigated for four types of small container habitats (treeholes, bamboo stumps, cemetery stone vases, and cemetery stone vessels) on Kabeshima Island in Kyushu, southwestern Japan. The probability that containers held water was positively correlated with the quantity of the preceding rainfall and with the depth and volume of the containers. It was estimated that dehydration occurred more regularly in autumn and winter than in summer. The probability that mosquito larvae were present in each type of container was positively correlated with habitat stability in terms of the probability of the existence of standing water and the coefficient of variation of the water level. Twelve species of mosquito larvae, including two rare predators, were found. Species composition differed between the different types of container. Although 4 to 10 species used each type of container, the median number of species per container was two for treeholes and bamboo stumps, and one for the others. The dominant species wasTripteroides bambusa in treeholes and bamboo stumps,Aedes albopictus in stone vases, andA. japonicus in stone vessels. The larval mosquito community, which lacked major predators, possessed the following features that may facilitate the coexistence of many species: (1) niche segregation amongst species in terms of their selection of container types; (2) an aggregated distribution of the individual species among containers of the same type; (3) high intraspecific mean crowding (and hence probably intense intraspecific competition) in the dominant species in each type of container; (4) independent species associations within the same type of container; and (5) low interspecific mean crowding (and hence probablynot intense interspecific competition) between species in the same type of container.     

Public Sector Employment Inequality in the United States and the Great Recession

Historically in the United States, the public sector has served as an equalizing institution through the expansion of job opportunities for minority workers. This study examines whether the public sector continues to serve as an equalizing institution in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Using data from the Current Population Survey, I investigate changes in public sector employment between 2003 and 2013. My results point to a post-recession double disadvantage for black public sector workers: they are concentrated in a shrinking sector of the economy, and they are more likely than white and Hispanic public sector workers to experience job loss. These two trends are a historical break for the public sector labor market. I find that race and ethnicity gaps in public sector employment cannot be explained by differences in education, occupation, or any of the other measurable factors that are typically associated with employment. Among unemployed workers who most recently worked for the public sector, black women are the least likely to transition into private sector employment.     

Chinese Immigrant Women Workers' Mediated Negotiations With Constraints On Their Cultural Identities

Based on ethnographic fieldwork, this study examines the cultural identities of Chinese immigrant women workers in American society, that is, how the women negotiate with white supremacist cultural values that seek to interpellate them through their everyday use of media. I argue that through certain Chinese ethnic newspapers' cultural discourses, white supremacist cultural values penetrate the women's private lives and regulate their daily matters as minute as the color of their socks. Yet, the women's responses to these mediated discourses reveal that mainstream cultural values are only part of a more complex cultural quandary, which results from a number of constraints facing the women everyday: material difficulty, racial-cultural marginalization, and ethnic patriarchal control. In our group and individual interviews, my participants critically interpreted and negotiated with this cultural quandary. Their negotiation has great value, since it attests to their heightened cultural consciousness. From another perspective, however, their heightened consciousness has yet to develop into a strategic bicultural or multicultural identity, the “mestiza identity” in Anzaldua's words, as a result of the financial, racial, patriarchal, cultural, and psychological constraints in their lives. This situation leads us to reflect more on how we can help to lift these constraints, so that these women can strategically incorporate both Chinese and American cultural practices to improve their quality of life.     

Cohort size and earnings in Great Britain

Numerous studies in the United States have confirmed that individuals born into large cohorts, ceteris paribus, tend to have lower earnings on entry into the labour force compared to individuals born into small cohorts. On the other hand, only limited attention has been directed towards exploring the relationship between cohort size and earnings in other nations. This paper examines empirically the relationship between cohort size and male earnings in Great Britain. The data used is a time-series of cross-sections (1973–1982) constructed from theGeneral Household Survey. Some support for the hypothesis that large cohorts have depressed earnings is found. However, this effect does not persist as the cohort ages.     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

Community Amenity Measurement for the Great Fly-Over Zones

The purpose of this paper is to provide an alternative operationalization of amenities that does not privilege certain kinds of natural resources and climatic conditions and that can be used for assessing the quality of life in small towns. The amenity inventory presented here extends previous literature by including a broad range of amenities (natural resource, indoor and outdoor built recreational facilities, public and private services, and downtown amenities). The community level of analysis and small town focus are also unique. The inventory uses both secondary data from public sources and primary data that can be gathered by researchers or community residents. Therefore, in addition to the scholarly contribution of the inventory, the process of defining and assessing community amenities may be a valuable tool for building interpersonal relationships within communities, generating community spirit, and developing strategies for enhancing the local quality of life.     

Fertility trends,excess mortality,and the Great Irish Famine

This paper has developed estimates of the age-specific mortality rates prevailing during the Great Irish Famine and has analyzed fertility trends during the 25 years before the Famine. Our calculations confirm that 1 million Irish people perished as a result of this disaster. This figure does not include the deaths among the 1.3 million emigrants who left Ireland during the Famine period. The Famine produced a significant drop in the fertility rate, and we estimate that more than 300,000 births did not take place as a result of the Famine. The effects were especially severe on the very young and the very old, a result echoed in the findings of demographic analyses of other famines. Our procedure permits a reconstruction of the Irish population by age and sex during the period 1821-1841. In addition, it yields year-by-year estimates of the birth rate over this period. We estimate that the rate fell by about 14 percent, a result robust to our assumptions regarding emigration. Economic historians have debated this issue, and we hope that our evidence, although preliminary, will be of assistance. Our analysis also permits year-by-year reconstruction of Irish population totals for the period 1821-1851. Two years are of particular interest. Virtually all recent writers, with the notable exception of Lee (1981), have suggested that the 1831 census returns overestimated the actual population resident in Ireland at that date. Our reconstruction supports the validity of the 1831 census figure. We obtain a total of 7,847,000, which is in good agreement with the disputed census figure of 7,767,000. But perhaps the most interesting figure is the population total for the end of 1845, the highest ever achieved in Ireland. We estimate that the population on the eve of the Great Famine was 8,525,000. Throughout the paper we have tried to highlight those areas in which the data are unreliable, unavailable, or distorted. We have tried to devise cross-checks for consistency and to test the sensitivity of the results to a range of assumptions. A case in point concerns the age-sex profile and volume of emigration to England, Scotland, and Wales. Additional work at the micro level would be helpful here. More solid evidence on Famine births would also be helpful. The parish registers we have sampled certainly provide a clue to trends, but we have only made a start in that respect. A much more comprehensive survey is needed to convey the national picture.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

资源型城市人口生存与发展问题分析及对策选择

在资源型城市所面临的诸多问题中,人口生存与发展问题是最基本的问题。资源型城市的失业率高,社会保障程度低,教育落后,生态环境污染严重,这些问题直接影响着社会的稳定。这些问题的出现,既与国家过去资源开发的政策有关,也与资源型城市中人口自身的原因有关。因此,要解决这些问题,资源型城市自身要努力转型,同时也离不开国家的救援机制。     

农民工的流动儿童生存环境与就学的相关分析

本文从湖南省湘潭市部分农民工的流动儿童就学状况出发,对其生存环境与就学率及学校取向影响作了简要分析,得出几点结论:其一,以户籍为基础的教育财政体制是农民工的流动儿童就学难的根源,有必要建立与人口流动性相配套的财政投入机制来解决教育经费的区域划拨矛盾;其二,农民工流动性过强、公立学校借读费过高以及文化教育程度的限制导致了流动儿童失辍学率居高不下,政府应当逐步弱化按教育成本投入确定的入学收费制度,通过继续教育来提升农民工家长的文化素质,为孩子创造相对稳定宽松的学习环境;其三,民办学校办学资格的缺失及城乡歧视形成的心理负荷导致流动儿童教育质量低下,政府应当渐近性地完成民办学校合法化整改工作,在城市主导价值观念下加速流动儿童的城市融合过程。     

The Values Adolescents Aspire to,Their Well-being and the Values Parents Aspire to for Their Children

This paper presents a study of the relationship between the psychological well-being of Spanish adolescents from 12 to 16 years old and the values they aspire to for the future (N = 1,618). Adolescents’ well-being is explored through (a) their satisfaction with 19 specific life domains, (b) the Personal Well-Being Index (Cummins, Social Indicators Research, 43, 307−334, 1998) and (c) an item on overall satisfaction with life. The values they aspire to are explored by means of a list of 23 personal qualities or values. Satisfaction domains and values aspired to have been grouped into dimensions using principal component analysis (PCA). Boys scored significantly higher on the materialistic values dimension and the capacities and knowledge related values dimension, while girls scored higher on the interpersonal relationship related values dimension. The youngest adolescents scored higher on materialistic values, while the oldest scored higher on interpersonal relationships related values. Such results are similar to those obtained in a previous study, using a shorter version of the lists of satisfaction domains and of values aspired to and a sample of 8,995 adolescents and 4,381 of their parents from five different countries. In both studies results suggest that values aspired to can be considered a well-being related construct. However, an important change appears in the latest Spanish sample: Family values no longer fit with the interpersonal relationships related values dimension in the PCA, and now function as a separate value dimension which shows no correlation with overall life satisfaction, the PWI, or life satisfaction domains with the exception of family satisfaction. Interestingly, family values have also changed their loading dimension in the PCA developed with the answers from a sample of parents about the values they aspire to for their own child’s future (N = 723). Parents’ responses were compared with those of their own child, with concordances observed in about half of the families, low discrepancies in about one third and high or very high discrepancies in about 20%. Although the results of this study have their limitations, they suggest support for the hypothesis that important changes in values aspired to may be taking place over a short period of time, consistent with the findings of changes in values in several countries (Inglehart, Modernization and postmodernization. Cultural, economic and political change in 43 societies, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), but apparently with no outstanding impact on adolescents’ well-being.     

A comparison of the size of families of roman catholics and non-catholics in Great Britain

Abstract In a recent study of family size ideals in the D.S.A. it was found that in the 1960'S the mean ideal family size of Catholics was about half a child higher than the mean ideal size of non-Catholics. This note describes an analysis of similar data for married women in Great Britain, derived from an investigation undertaken in 1966 for the Population Investigation Committee. A difference in ideal family size, which was of the same order as the American difference, was found; and, in addition, the actual fertility of Catholics was compared with that of others.