“Demodystopias”: Prospects of Demographic Hell

Dystopian fiction, stories envisioning dire human futures, originated with the novels of H. G. Wells and others a century ago. “Demodystopias” are a subgenre of dystopias where the imagined futures derive from demographic change, taken perhaps to an extreme: the population explosion, aging and depopulation, mass migration, global epidemics, and the eugenic possibilities of new reproductive technologies. This essay traces the genealogy of demodystopias over the twentieth and early twenty‐first centuries. Their themes reflect the demographic issues of the day: fear of overpopulation in the “population bomb” era; later, threatened societal senescence or swamping by immigrants under ultra‐low fertility; new reproductive regimes under genetic engineering; and the geopolitics of demographic change. As with other dystopias, demodystopias seek to identify present‐day negative tendencies that might lead to a future theatrum diabolorum—and to pin responsibility for such an outcome on ourselves. Authors discussed include Margaret Atwood, Anthony Burgess, Günter Grass, Michel Houellebecq, José Saramago, Lionel Shriver, and Kurt Vonnegut.     

Reinstatement of the US “Mexico City Policy”

On 22 January 2001, the third day of the new US administration (the day that also marked the twenty‐eighth anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the US Supreme Court decision that liberalized abortion). President Bush issued an executive order, taking the form of a memorandum addressed to the Administrator of the Agency for International Development on the subject of “Restoration of the Mexico City Policy.” The executive order reinstates the US policy promulgated at the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984 (see “Documents” in the September 1984 issue of this journal). The Mexico City policy was rescinded on 22 January 1993 when President Clinton took office (see “Documents” in the March 1993 issue of this journal). The full text of President Bush's memorandum as released by the White House is reproduced below.     

Explaining Asia's “Missing Women”: A New Look at the Data

The fact that millions of females are “missing” in East Asia and South Asia has been attributed to cultural factors that support strong son preference in these countries. A widely disseminated paper by Emily Oster argues that a large part of this phenomenon can be attributed to excessively masculine sex ratios at birth resulting from maternal infection with hepatitis B. If her thesis is true, current policies to address this problem would need to be reframed to include biological factors in addition to cultural factors. The data show, however, that whether or not females “go missing” is determined by the existing sex composition of the family into which they are conceived. Girls with no older sisters have similar chances of survival as boys. However, girls conceived in families that already have a daughter experience steeply higher probabilities of being aborted or of dying in early childhood. This indicates that cultural factors still provide the overwhelming explanation for the “missing” females.     

“Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

This article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non‐local in‐migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of “population invasion” by Han Chinese and Chinese Muslims. The article argues that migration to Tibet from other regions in China has been concentrated in urban areas and has been counterbalanced by more rapid rates of natural increase in the Tibetan rural areas—among the highest rates in China. Overall, it is not clear whether there is any risk of population invasion in the Tibetan areas. However, given that non‐Tibetan migration to Tibet has been concentrated in urban areas, Tibetans have probably become a minority in many of their strategic cities and towns, and non‐Tibetan migrants definitely dominate urban employment. Therefore, while the Tibetan notion of population invasion may be a misperception, it reflects a legitimate concern that in‐migration may be exacerbating the economic exclusion of Tibetan locals in the context of rapid urban‐centered development.     

Well-Being <Emphasis Type="Italic">in</Emphasis> Nations and Well-Being <Emphasis Type="Italic">of</Emphasis> Nations

Human societies cannot exist without human beings and human beings cannot exist without a society. Still there can be a conflict of interest between the individual and society and there are historical examples of societies prospering at the cost of its members, and examples of people thriving at the cost of society. The degree of conflict or synergy will vary over time. This begs the question: How it is today? To what extend does the well-being of contemporary nations go together with the well-being of their inhabitants? In a system theoretical perspective one can distinguish four kinds of being ‘well’: (1) good external conditions, (2) appropriate internal functioning, (3) positive external effects and (4) system maintenance. At the level of nations these aspects of well-being cannot be meaningfully combined in one measure, hence each aspect is measured separately. At the level of individuals a fairly comprehensive measure is how long and happy people live. Data was available for 92 nations in the early 2000s. Analysis of these data shows much correspondence between the well-being of contemporary nations and average well-being of citizens in these nations. This appears in strong correlations between Happy Life Years and (a) the position of the nation in the world system, (b) the functioning of public institutions in the nation, (c) the productivity of the nation, and (d) the stability of the system. There are plausible explanations for this connection, one is that modern society fits human nature fairly well and another that happy citizens make a better society. So, there is no great conflict between the individual and society, at least not at this moment.     

Same-Sex Married Tax Filers After <Emphasis Type="Italic">Windsor</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Obergefell</Emphasis>

This article provides new estimates of the number and characteristics of same-sex married couples after U.S. Supreme Court rulings in 2013 and 2015 established rights to same-sex marriage. The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service subsequently ruled that same-sex spouses would be treated as married for federal tax purposes. Because almost all married taxpayers file joint tax returns, administrative tax records provide new information on the demographic characteristics of married same-sex couples. This study provides estimates of the population of same-sex tax filers drawn from returns filed in 2013, 2014, and 2015, using methods developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to address measurement error in gender classification. We estimate that approximately 0.48 % of all joint filers in 2015 were same-sex couples, or approximately 250,450 couples.     

Development Challenges of the "New Europe"

European nations are undergoing rapid and fundamental changesin response to social, political and economic eventsthat are occurring both within and outside the region.These changes are far-reaching in scope and,ultimately, are expected to result in a redefinitionof ``Europe' and what it means to be ``European.'Using the author's extensively pre-tested Index ofSocial Progress (ISP), the research reported in thispaper: 1) identifies the major changes in socialdevelopment that have taken place in 36 European nationssince 1970; 2) contrasts Europe's recent socialdevelopment trends with those of other major world regions(including Asia, Africa, Latin and North America, andOceania); 3) using aggregate scores on the WeightedIndex of Social Progress (WISP), identifies Europe's``social leaders' (SLs), ``middle performing countries'(MPCs), identifies Europe's ``social leaders' (SLs),``middle performing countries' (MPCs), and ``sociallyleast developing countries' (SLDCs); 4) identifies themajor development challenges confronting Europe at theoutset of a new decade; and 5) provides baseline dataagainst which future developments in the region maybe assessed.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data</Emphasis>

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.     

The school-to-work transition of 2<Superscript>nd</Superscript> generation immigrants in Denmark

2^nd generation immigrants from less developed countries have less education and a lower employment frequency compared to the native Danish youth. We analyse the school-to-work transition of these groups using panel data for the years 1985–1997. The educational gap between 2^nd generation immigrants and the Danish youth is to some extent explained by age structure, while age does not explain the native-immigrant gap concerning the duration of waiting time until first job and the duration of first employment spell. Instead parental capital and neighbourhood effects seem to play a major role. We find large gender differences among 2^nd generation immigrants in the school-to-work transition.All Correspondence to Nina Smith. Thanks to Thomas Haugaard Jensen, Anne-Sofie Reng Rasmussen and Mette Skak-Nielsen who have done part of the computational work. We also want to thank two anynomous referees and participants in the ESF-conference on Migration and Development in Naples 2000 and the ESPE conference in Athens 2001 for many valuable comments. The project has been financed by the Danish Social Science Research Council (FREJA), the Danish Ministry of Labour and TSER. Furthermore, Helena Skyt Nielsen has been supported financially by the Danish Social Science Research Council (SSF), while this work was undertaken. Responsible editors: David Card and Christopher M. Schmidt.