The Impacts of Highway Expansion on Population Change: An Integrated Spatial Approach

The effects of highways on transforming human society and promoting population change have been investigated in several disciplines, including geography, sociology, economics, and planning. Currently, the primary highway construction activity in the nation is highway expansion; however, this expansion has not been the focus of much of the existing literature. This research examines the role that highway expansion plays in the process of population change. Specifically, this research proposes an integrated spatial regression approach to study the impacts of highway expansion on population change in the 1980s and 1990s in Wisconsin at the minor civil division level. The integrated approach thoroughly considers the factors that influence population change, appropriately examines the spatial variations of their impacts, simultaneously incorporates spatial lag and spatial error dependence, and systematically selects the optimal neighborhood structure. The findings suggest that the impacts of highway expansion on population change differ across rural, suburban, and urban areas: There are only indirect effects in rural areas, both direct and indirect effects in suburban areas, and no statistically significant effects in urban areas. Overall, highway expansion serves as a facilitator of population change within the framework of growth pole theory and location theory.     

Growth Management and Agriculture: An Examination of Local Efforts to Manage Growth and Preserve Farmland in Wisconsin Cities,Villages, and Towns*

Abstract In this paper we examine the effectiveness of growth management policies in Wisconsin cities, villages, and towns. Unlike most other studies, we consider the impact of growth management policies on agriculture, specifically the preservation of farmland, in addition to population growth. Our analysis examines these relationships separately in towns and in cities/villages because of differences in their institutional structures. We mailed a survey to every city, village, and town in Wisconsin; the surveys were supplemented by data collected from several secondary sources. For both towns and cities/villages, growth management policies are related positively to the rate of population growth. The fiscal structure of localities proved to have a stronger effect on population growth for cities and villages than for towns. Growth management capacity had little effect for either type of municipality. The analysis of farmland preservation suggests that exclusive agriculture zoning is marginally effective in limiting farmland conversion in towns, but ineffective in cities/villages.     

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS WITH TIME‐VARYING TREATMENTS AND TIME-VARYING OUTCOMES*

We develop an approach to identifying and estimating causal effects in longitudinal settings with time–varying treatments and time–varying outcomes. The classic potential outcome approach to causal inference generally involves two time periods: units of analysis are exposed to one of two possible values of the causal variable, treatment or control, at a given point in time, and values for an outcome are assessed some time subsequent to exposure. In this paper, we develop a potential outcome approach for longitudinal situations in which both exposure to treatment and the effects of treatment are time-varying. In this longitudinal setting, the research interest centers not on only two potential outcomes, but on a whole matrix of potential outcomes, requiring a complicated conceptualization of many potential counterfactuals. Motivated by sociological applications, we develop a simplification scheme—a weighted composite causal effect that allows identification and estimation of effects with a number of possible solutions. Our approach is illustrated via an analysis of the effects of disability on subsequent employment status using panel data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.     

Democracy and Growth: Evidence for Portugal (1960–2001)

This paper examines the causal relationship between democracy and economic growth in Portugal over the period 1960–2001 within a VAR model with four variables: output, physical and human capital, and an index of democracy. We apply Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions to analyze causality and check how unexpected changes influence growth. Our main findings point to a bi-directional causality between democracy and growth. The impulse-response analysis suggests that in the short run democracy has a negative effect on growth in Portugal, but in the long run this effect is positive. Furthermore, we find that democracy also causes economic growth by increasing educational attainment.     

Land fragmentation under rapid urbanization: A cross-site analysis of Southwestern cities

Explosive population growth and increasing demand for rural homes and lifestyles fueled exurbanization and urbanization in the western USA over the past decades. Using National Land Cover Data we analyzed land fragmentation trends from 1992 to 2001 in five southwestern cities associated with Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites. We observed two general fragmentation trends: expansion of the urbanized area leading to fragmentation in the exurban and peri-urban regions and decreased fragmentation associated with infill in the previously developed urban areas. We identified three fragmentation patterns, riparian, polycentric, and monocentric, that reflect the recent western experience with growth and urbanization. From the literature and local expert opinion, we identified five relevant drivers ?C water provisioning, population dynamics, transportation, topography, and institutions ?C that shape land use decision-making and fragmentation in the southwest. In order to assess the relative importance of each driver on urbanization, we linked historical site-specific driver information obtained through literature reviews and archival analyses to the observed fragmentation patterns. Our work highlights the importance of understanding land use decision-making drivers in concert and throughout time, as historic decisions leave legacies on landscapes that continue to affect land form and function, a process often forgotten in a region and era of blinding change.     

MONEY, CREDIT, and WAGES IN HYPERINFLATION: POST-WORLD WAR I GERMANY

An important feature of the German hyperinflation is the way in which accelerating monetization of both government and private debt by the Reichsbank fueled the inflation process. The stimulus to private credit demand arising from more rapid adjustment of money wages over this period is often ignored, however. The present empirical results strongly support the importance of wage pressures in augmenting fiscal influences on nominal money growth during 1920–1923. Our findings also suggest that wage claims provided the main conduit through which higher inflationary expectations were accommodated by faster rates of monetary expansion.     

Spatial disintegration and arable land security in Egypt: A study of small- and moderate-sized urban areas

While commonly associated with regional ‘mega-cities’, rapid urbanization in the less-developed world has also begun to define growth in small- and moderate-sized settlements on the periphery of major metropolitan areas. The dispersal of population growth to these smaller areas holds significant implications for environmental, economic, and social health, and threatens local food security, increases congestions, and induces difficulty in service provision. This study examines the effects of spatial disintegration and rapid urbanization in the stock of arable land in Egypt. To assess this issue, the study will meet three objectives. First, we evaluate the relationship between population growth and urban land cover expansion in small- and moderate-sized settlements in Egypt. Second, we consider the role of selected geographic determinants in influencing the growth of these areas through the use of a regression model. The selection of an appropriate model type is a sub-objective and will be discussed further. Third, these drivers of growth will be assessed through their effects on the country’s stock of arable land. These objectives will be met through the development and application of the regression models, in order to examine the relationship between urban land expansion and several independent variables. An increase in population is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on corresponding urban land cover area. Surprisingly, the variables commonly associated with urbanization in Egypt - proximity to major roads, the capital of Cairo, and the Nile River - though exhibiting a positive relationship with urban growth, are not statistically significant in the selected case studies. This research underlines the necessity for a combined approach to policy formation - with input from policy fields as varied as agriculture, urban planning, and land reclamation - to slow outward growth and maintain arable land stocks.     

WHY UNDERSTANDING SMOKING BANS IS IMPORTANT FOR ESTIMATING THEIR EFFECTS: CALIFORNIA'S RESTAURANT SMOKING BANS AND RESTAURANT SALES

A large literature has sought to determine whether smoking bans help or hinder restaurants. Much of the literature improperly specifies its econometric equations and thus mistakenly infers causality. Examining the relationship between restaurant smoking bans and restaurant revenues in 267 California communities, we reach two main conclusions. First, California's municipal restaurant smoking bans are endogenous in a critical way—restaurant sales growth (or something correlated with restaurant sales growth) appears to cause restaurant bans, not vice versa. Consequently, failure to control properly for trends can produce spurious "evidence" of causation. Second, ban heterogeneity (e.g., state versus local) can be exploited to sort out—or rule out—causal effects. In other words, pooling data and treating smoking bans implemented at different levels as homogenous (as many studies do) ignores an important source of information and is likely to lead to erroneous conclusions. Our analysis holds lessons for the many studies that have examined the arguably more important question of how smoking bans affect smoking rates. ( JEL L51)     

Multilingualism and European Identification

The literature on ethnicity and nationalism notes the centrality of language in group formation. Developments connected to globalization have simultaneously propitiated learning more than one language and the emergence of post‐national and pan‐ethnic identifications. This article brings the literature on ethnicity and nationalism to bear on the analysis of these changes to assess the causal relationship between multilingualism (ML ) and European identification (EI ). Sociology and social psychology provide solid theoretical arguments for why they should be related. The article tests this relationship with Eurobarometer data from 2010. I show that ML has a causal impact on EI and that interaction helps mediate this relationship. The effect of language on EI is modest, however, and interaction does not appear to be the main mechanism mediating it. The article concludes with speculation as to the role of low relative cross‐national mobility in Europe as the main explanation for some of the findings.     

The role of life experience in long-term care insurance decisions

This study uses data from a unique survey of the retirement planning behaviors of late middle-aged individuals living in New York State, to test hypotheses regarding the role of earlier life experiences on the demand for long-term care insurance. Our primary focus is on previous provision of informal long-term care, which some studies have found to be correlated with demand for long-term care insurance. We add to the literature by providing a test for causal relationships between previous care-giving and insurance demand, and by exploring the more generally the mechanisms through which previous life experiences are linked to insurance demand. Results are robust to a variety of empirical specifications and estimation methods, including consideration of current care-giving roles and endogenous selection into previous care-giving, and strongly support a causal relationship between previous long-term care-giving and demand for insurance. Our estimates also provide evidence that lifetime health trajectories and family relationships are associated with long-term care insurance demand, and suggest that both emotional and informational forces influence demand.     

Socio-historical foundations of citizenship practice: after social revolution in Portugal

This article shows how macro-historical processes of change can activate robust and enduring forms of citizenship practice, providing both survey-based evidence for this claim and a theorization of the causal mechanisms involved. Focusing on the case of Portugal, where democratization followed the historically unusual path of social revolution, we examine survey data on civic practice covering twenty countries and find Portugal to be a world leader in public participation in the electronic public sphere. When we examine the subsection of the population socialized politically in the country’s post-revolutionary democracy, we find another important indicator of lively citizenship practice. The article takes the examination of this specific national case as the basis for developing an argument of broad theoretical relevance on the social underpinnings of lively and participatory citizenship practice. With an empirical foundation for our claims in survey data and other sources, our analysis of Portugal offers an interpretation of the case, leading to substantial revision of assumptions in the extant literature. More importantly, through our examination of this case, we show how large-scale macro-historical processes of change can encourage lively civic practice manifested at the individual level. Our argument highlights the importance of hierarchy-challenging collective experiences that reconfigure cultural frameworks and reorient the character of institutional practice. We take up the implications of this argument for cases lacking a history of revolution and find certain parallels with national cases shaped by movements of social reform as in the social democracies of Scandinavia.     

Antiblackness as a Logic for Anti-Immigrant Resentment: Evidence From California

Drawing on data from a novel survey of Californians, this article examines the relationship between anti-immigrant resentment and antiblackness. Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in research on anti-immigrant resentment, as well as a steady growth in public opinion literature on antiblack bias. Nonetheless, there are almost no studies that examine the relationship between these types of attitudes. Using two different measures of anti-immigrant resentment and three different measures of antiblack bias, we find that antiblackness among those Californians surveyed was significantly and robustly correlated with anti-immigrant resentment. Our findings suggest that even in a state where there is a relatively small black population and where there is little overlap between the categories of “black” and “immigrant,” attitudes toward blacks may be shaping attitudes toward immigrants. The findings suggest a need to move beyond dyadic theories of othering and in doing so, to think more critically about how the racialization of one group can shape the racialization of other groups.     

English language proficiency and earnings in a developing country: The case of South Africa

In this paper we explore the relationship between English language proficiency and earnings in South Africa, using new data from the first wave of the National Income Dynamics panel survey of 2008. Much of the literature on this topic has studied the impact on earnings of host country language acquisition among minority groups of immigrants to developed countries. In our study we analyse the returns to language skills in a developing country context where the dominant language of business, government and education is that of the former colony, although not more than one percent of the African majority population group speaks English as their home language. Our findings suggest large returns among Africans to reading and writing English very well, and particularly among those who have a tertiary education. We also briefly consider the implications of these results for language and education policy in South Africa in the post-apartheid period.     

Suicide and unemployment in Japan: Evidence from municipal level suicide rates and age-specific suicide rates

Most previous studies on the relationship between unemployment and suicide use either individual level data or large unit aggregate level data. The former typically fail to distinguish the observed association from the causal link, and the latter often produce inconsistent findings on the unemployment-suicide relationship, making it difficult to draw policy implications. The present study contributes to this line of research by using two semi-aggregate level data in Japan. The results show that unemployment is significantly associated with male suicide rates, especially those of prime age working men, while the results are not straightforward for female suicide rates.     

The Mass Emigration Context of Lithuania: Patterns and Policy Options

Lithuania represents one of the rare cases in which a state with relatively high standards for maintaining population statistics is experiencing mass emigration. In light of the policy initiatives undertaken by the Lithuanian government to address the issue of emigration, this study aims to improve our understanding of how, in this mass emigration context, emigration events are connected to specific socio‐economic characteristics of individuals and variation in local socio‐economic conditions. We analyse census and vital registration data covering the whole working‐age population of Lithuania during the period 2011‐2012. Our findings indicate that when assessing the likelihood of emigration events, individual‐level characteristics such as employment status, educational attainment, and prior migration experience are highly relevant. However, the importance of these characteristics differs by gender. We also detect considerable spatial variation in emigration rates across Lithuanian municipalities. Our outcomes provide new insights for the development of cohesive migration policies in Lithuania.     

Will They Ever Converge? Earnings of Immigrant and Canadian-born Workers over the Last Two Decades1

Using Census data covering the 1980–2000 period, this article examines what outcomes would be necessary for today's recent immigrant cohorts to achieve earnings parity with Canadian‐born workers. Our results show that today's recent immigrants would have to experience a drastic steepening of their relative age‐earnings profile in the near future for their earnings to converge with their Canadian‐born counterparts. The reason is simple: the greater relative earnings growth experienced by recent immigrant cohorts has only partially offset the drastic deterioration in their relative earnings at entry.     

A bibliometric analysis of relationship management as a scholarly field from 1997 to 2022

This bibliometric study aims to evaluate the state of art of the relationship management literature over the period 1997–2022. Data from 22,926 citations from 219 articles published in six public relations journals enable us to conclude that research on relationship management has grown as it has become a popular topic. The explosive growth is more noticeable after 2010, when the number of articles and citations more than doubled. Peer-reviewed journal articles and books are the two major sources of citations. The topics of interest are: proposing frameworks, testing and validating relationship quality measures, and testing and advancing theories or models.     

Advertising, Individual Consumption Levels, and the Natural Environment, 1900–2000

One central determinant of global environmental change is the continued expansion of personal consumption levels. In order to more fully understand the relationship between consumption and environmental degradation, the determinants of consumption must first be identified. Prior research in this area has focused on economic factors, primarily personal disposable income and population demographic characteristics. The role of cultural factors, including advertising, has been actively mentioned in theoretical analyses of the driving forces of individual consumption. However, this has not been empirically tested. In this article, we conduct an analysis of the impact of advertising on consumption levels in the United States. We start with a theoretical discussion of the literature on advertising and consumption. Based on this literature, we establish three hypotheses regarding the relationship between advertising expenditure and personal consumption. These hypotheses are then tested using time series analysis over the time period 1900–2000. The results show that advertising significantly impacts overall consumption and that these effects vary by type of consumption. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this analysis for further research into the driving forces of global environmental change.     

Online gambling participation and problem gambling severity: is there a causal relationship?

Studies of Internet gambling have consistently shown that online gamblers are more likely to report disordered gambling behaviour than offline gamblers. However, little research has focused on whether this is a causal relationship or whether this risk factor is capturing a relationship with one or more missing variables. To address whether there is a strong causal argument for the effect of online gambling participation on problem gambling severity, we use a secondary data method that corrects for potential omitted variable bias. Once this issue is addressed, we find that past-year participation in online gambling is related to a decrease in problem gambling severity, which is the opposite of the popular view in current literature. The estimates in this study are found to be robust to various forms of online gambling, control variables and problem gambling measurement instruments. The findings were also consistent when using a representative sample from the United Kingdom and when using an online research panel from Ontario, Canada. As a primary force against the widespread adoption of Internet gambling has been public health concern over problem gambling, this study provides evidence that such decisions should be more closely considered by policymakers.     

Unemployment: an international perspective

Using standard OECD unemployment and national income account data, the rela-tionship between unemployment rates and the productivity-adjusted real wage rate is examined for six major countries, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom, using bivariate regression analysis. In addition, pooled cross-section estimates of the same relationship are provided for the 24 traditional OECD countries covering the period 1971-1995. The object is to determine whether the observed statistically significant positive relationship between these variables found for the United States exists in other economies. The basic conclusion is that the inter-national experience in this regard is similar to that for the United States. The research underlying the analysis reported in this article has been supported by the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress of the United States and is reflected in Vedder and Gallaway (1998).