堵疏结合两手“打鼠”

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融资融券背景下证券配对交易策略研究——基于协整和距离的两阶段方法

国内融资融券政策的正式启动,为证券配对交易实施提供了必要的市场环境,使其成为一种新兴有效的投资手段。基于协整配对法和距离配对法,本文构建了一种新的两阶段配对交易策略。在股票配对选择方面,首先采用协整分析选出具有相似股价走势的候选股票对;其次,采用欧式距离计算各候选配对股票距离,以距离最小为依据选择最佳股票配对,以避免同一股票同时被买入和卖空的风险。在资金分配方面,考虑当前融资融券交易制度背景,求解资金有限约束下的最优资金分配方案,以保证模型设计更为接近实际交易情况。以上证50指数成分股为实证对象,实证研究结果表明不同费率情景下,构建的新两阶段方法均能获得超额收益,且其效果明显优于仅考虑协整关系的配对交易策略;同时,敏感性分析验证了新方法的稳定性。     

中国证券投资基金市场波动特征实证研究

根据不同类型的ARCH类模型的特点及其所刻画的市场波动特征,本文对中国证券投资基金市场波动的聚集性进行检验,分别运用EGARCH和TGARCH模型对证券投资基金波动的非对称性和杠杆效应进行实证研究,运用EGARCH-M模型对证券投资基金波动的风险溢价效应进行实证分析,运用改进的EGARCH模型对证券投资基金波动与信息的关系进行实证研究,并对实证结果进行分析.     

金融资产投资对创新投入的挤出效应研究

基于我国经济“脱实向虚”的宏观背景，文章研究了微观企业金融资产投资对创新投入的消极影响，以及融资融券制度在其中的作用。以2007-2015年A股上市公司为样本的实证检验发现，金融资产投资阻碍了企业的创新投入。其机制在于，金融资产投资不仅引入了较多的外部风险，而且加剧了创新投入面临的融资约束，进而对创新投入表现为显著的挤出效应。以融资融券制度的实施为契机，进一步研究发现，融资融券业务通过增加上市公司的风险与融资约束，最终加剧了金融资产投资对创新投入的挤出效应。因此，应防止上市公司过度从事金融资产投资，同时对融资融券制度进行优化，促使资本市场更好地服务实体经济。     

Investing Profitably in China: is it Getting Harder?

Using information from the Toyo Keizai, this article studies the performance of 2,962 foreign subsidiaries across the period 1985-1999 to show a picture of declining profitability from foreign direct investment by MNE’s in China. Despite the influence of macro-level factors, such as the historically fluctuating performance of the Chinese economy, we observed that of the many factors that may affect profitability, subsidiary-specific factors had the greater influence. The findings suggest that there are significant benefits for early entrants into the market, but caution against the use of high majority ownership control. Other evidence showed that larger subsidiaries tended to perform better. Managerial implications for MNEs and the future prospects of foreign direct investment in China are discussed.Since China opened up to the outside world in 1979, it has been attracting increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI), and after 1993 became the second largest recipient of FDI flows in the world. Meanwhile, a major participant in the upsurge in global foreign direct investment in the 1990s was Japan. By the mid-1990s, Japan became the second largest FDI source country in the world behind the United States. China, in particular, has become a major destination for Japan’s direct investments, absorbing one-ninth of all Japanese foreign investments at the end of 1996.¹Studying Japan’s worldwide direct foreign investment, we found that the proportion of profitable Japanese subsidiaries in China has been declining. In fact, this was the only part of the world where this was the case. While over 71 percent of Japanese subsidiaries in China claimed profits in 1992, the percentage steadily slipped to around 50 percent by 1999 (see Table 1). This poses two interesting questions. Is it really getting harder to invest profitably in China? And what could have influenced the profit performance of foreign subsidiaries in China?     

日本跨国公司对华直接投资的动机与区位因素分析

基于一项对230家日本在华投资母公司的问卷调查,本文对日本跨国公司对华直接投资的动机和区位因素进行了实证分析。根据因子分析,日本跨国公司对华直接投资的动机可以归纳为市场寻求动机、资源转移动机和竞争压力动机;影响日本跨国公司对华直接投资的区位因素可以归纳为宏观环境因素、政府效率因素、法律法规因素、激励因素、服务因素和投入成本因素。     

碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型及其配置效率

作为我国碳交易体系的试金石,“七省市”试点运营状况如何?是学界和管理层特别关注的一个焦点问题.以碳排放权的初始配置准则为切入点,展开理论探讨与定性分析,发现:在现行的溯源免费配置准则下,试点地区的碳交易市场有明显的“聚类效应”特征,其原因是排放权的误配导致企业逆向选择所致.为了从机制设计本源上消除企业减排的逆向选择,把拍卖有偿配置准则引入碳交易市场中,构建企业减排投资回报率指标,定义排放权的社会最优配置,建立碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型,分析异质性企业在碳排放权拍卖中的投标策略及其拍卖前的减排投资决策行为,剖析企业所有权差异对其减排投资和排放权配置结果的影响,阐述政府补贴企业减排投资的政策效果,基于政府补贴政策效果提出完善我国碳交易市场的相关建议.     

Do individual investors learn from their mistakes?

Based on recent empirical evidence which suggests that as investors gain experience, their investment performance improves, we hypothesize that the specific mechanism through which experience translates into better investment returns is closely related to learning from investment mistakes. To test our hypotheses, we use an administrative dataset which covers the trading history of 19,487 individual investors. Our results show that underdiversification and the disposition effect do not decline as investors gain experience. However, we find that experience correlates with less portfolio turnover. We conclude that compared to other investment mistakes, it is relatively easy for individuals to identify and avoid costs related to excessive trading activity. When correlating experience with portfolio returns, we find that as investors gain experience, their portfolio returns improve. A comparison of returns before and after accounting for transaction costs reveals that this effect is related to learning from overtrading.     

证券买卖速度受制约下的最优交易策略

以往对最优交易策略的研究忽略了交易速度的外生制度性约束.本文基于弱有效市场假设，构建交易速度受制约条件下，最大化投资效用的交易策略模型.运用极大值原理，推导出不同市场情形、各种初始持仓条件下最优交易策略的解析解.通过对最优交易策略的进一步分析表明:存在一个最优初始持仓(即机会容量)使投资效用最大化;投资者需以最大交易速度在投资期的初始阶段以机会容量为目标调整持仓，并在投资期的最后阶段出清仓位.     

内外部碳配额交易路径下供应链减排决策研究

供应链内外部碳配额交易是碳配额政策下供应链协调碳配额的重要途径,对供应链成员企业碳减排决策产生重要影响。本文以单供应商和单制造商组成的二级供应链为研究对象,在完善的碳配额交易市场情况下,通过构建供应链外部碳交易路径和内外部碳配额交易路径共存的博弈模型,分析了碳配额政策下内外部碳配额交易条件、企业减排策略和利润影响因素。研究结果表明,在外部碳交易路径下,供应链上、下游企业的减排决策相互影响,且当单位碳排放量和碳减排成本系数相等时,上游企业碳减排率是下游企业的两倍;同时进行内外部碳配额交易能降低中间产品批发价格,提高供应链成员企业碳减排率、增加企业利润。算例验证了结论的有效性,并发现企业碳配额和内部碳交易价格在一定区间内才能使内部碳交易达成,此时制造商会分担供应商的碳减排费用。     

中国融资融券业务处置效应的实证分析

处置效应阐述了投资者较早卖出盈利而长时间保留亏损的倾向。2010年我国融资融券业务的启动,大大提高了市场的流动性和活跃性,同时也带来了信用交易的投机特性,加强了市场阶段性波动并放大风险,这为我们研究处置效应提供了独特的样本。本文以某大型券商2014年11月至2016年10月30512个账户共3239305条交易记录为样本,采用衡量处置效应的经典指标PGR-PLR以及生存分析中的cox比例风险回归模型检验了两融市场上处置效应的存在性,并进一步利用生存分析方法对影响个体处置效应的相关因素进行了研究。实证结果表明,融资融券市场整体上存在显著的处置效应;就个体层面而言,性别、年龄、投资水平均能影响投资者处置效应的强度。本文发现,与男性投资者相比,女性投资者的处置效应更为强烈。并且,若依据年龄将样本分为青年、中年、老年投资者三组,青年投资者处置效应显著低于中年投资者,而老年投资者处置效应最低。此外,无论以观察期内购买的不同标的物的合约数目还是合约总成交量作为投资者投资水平的代理变量,结果均显示,投资水平越高的投资者处置效应更低。最后,应用weibull风险模型替代cox比例风险模型重新计算,结果稳健。     

The impact of Japanese plants on local labour markets

Japanese direct investment is assuming an increasing importance in the U.K. economy, especially in the manufacturing sector where Japanese management and manufacturing techniques have aroused particular interest. Until recently this investment in manufacturing has been primarily restricted to plants of an assembly-based nature and Japanese companies have sought out labour markets which best satisfy the needs of this type of operation. However, early signs are appearing which suggest that new Japanese manufacturing investment is becoming increasingly sophisticated. In the light of this emergent trend, this paper uses recent research to draw attention to the labour market problems that are likely to occur as the skill requirements of Japanese employers increase. The paper then concludes by discussing strategies which individual firms should adopt to protect themselves from any consequent labour market disruption.     

The Japanese multinational

In this article the author examines the four features found in the emerging Japanese multinational enterprises, (1) joint ventures with participation of trading companies, (2) the R & D capabilities, (3) the Japanese style of management, and (4) socio-political reactions in Asian countries. These features provide the Japanese multinational enterprises with both opportunities and challenges for their future development. Proper consideration is given to the comparison with the American multinational enterprises.     

有限理性个体投资者行为机理的实证研究

基于投资者认知模式和决策选择的理论分析,探讨有限理性投资者的行为机理.构建相应的结构方程模型,并用来自中国中小投资者的样本数据进行实证检验.结果表明,有限理性投资者对信息进行认知时会产生信息识别、信息编辑和信息评价3个阶段的认知偏差,基于这些有偏认知的投资决策也将是有偏的,并最终导致个体投资者的收益水平与市场之间存在差异;决策偏差时绩效差异有显著的直接影响,3个阶段的认知偏差通过决策偏差间接影响投资绩效,认知偏差、决策偏差和绩效差异之间存在着依次递进的因果关系,绩效差异对识别偏差的反馈关系不显著.     

碳排放约束下供应链的碳交易模型研究

基于EOQ模型,假设碳交易市场中存在一个零售商和一个供应商,并以该两级供应链为研究对象,建立包含减排投资在内的碳交易模型,严格限定企业碳配额上下限,对不同碳配额下企业之间碳交易情况进行分析讨论。研究表明,控制碳配额在企业碳排放最优和成本最优时的碳排放区间内时,可以有效促进企业投资减排,在一定的碳交易价格之下,上下游企业碳配额余量乘积为负是保证碳交易政策实施的基本条件,而碳价格并不影响供应链成本和碳排放。通过算例进一步分析了不同交易价格对零售商和供应商的影响,最后在碳配额范围内得到了最优碳配额和交易价格。     

Japanese management philosophy: Can it be exported?

Japanese organizations have three prime characteristics. They are innovative firstly. They are growth oriented and they are sensitive to new opportunity. They are flexible organizations. Jobs are ambiguous and employees are willing to do any related jobs. They are also community organizations and the company will take care of the employees for their life-time. The organizations provide more opportunity for promotion and wage increase with small differentials. These features began to take clear shape after the war. Some of them have their roots in Japanese culture but many are the results of rational judgement, and many were transferred from the U.S. and other countries. It is therefore a misconception to think that these features are too indigenous to Japan to be transferred to other countries.     

Conquering ‘the tyranny of distance’: Australian–European economic and geopolitical relationships past,present and future

Australia today remains a continent adrift in a rapidly transforming world. It is economically dependent on China, aligned militarily with the US and yet socio-culturally still profoundly European in outlook. In this article, we reflect on the trends, challenges and opportunities that are likely to define and redefine Australia's interaction with Europe at a macro-level. We focus on eight key macro-level themes: historical connections, labour and migration, geopolitics and security, macro-economic relations and prospects, business relations and investment, technology and innovation, entrepreneurship, and environment and sustainability. We find that while Europe and Australia remain poles apart regarding several pressing global matters, from military and security alliances to official policy on climate change, there are also areas in which the potential for closer engagement are increasingly promising, including trilateral trading relationships with Asia, foreign direct investment and business-to-business relations, digital business, innovation and entrepreneurship, and business-driven innovation to combat global warming.     

融资融券对上市公司治理影响的研究

以融资融券机制推出为背景, 运用我国内地A股市场上市公司为样本, 研究了融资融券对上市公司治理水平的影响.回归结果显示, 成为融资融券标的后, 上市公司高管离职与高管薪酬对于公司绩效的黏性均有提高, 表明融资融券可以作为外部公司治理机制.机制检验显示融资融券是通过促进公司信息释放而提升公司治理水平的.进一步分析显示, 当公司面临行业竞争压力较小或面临财务约束时, 融资融券对于公司治理的促进作用更加明显.最后, 将融资和融券分开分析, 发现融资机制和融券机制均对公司治理有提升作用.证明了融资融券机制可以提高资本市场对企业的监督, 促进企业信息释放, 从而提高上市公司治理水平.     

Buying is marketing too—Japan's influence on the Australian coal trade

The Australian-Japan coal trade represents one of the largest single commodity trade flows in the Oceanic basin. The marketing functions of the three principal institutions (producer, trading house, user) are described. The theory of power and conflict in distribution channels is then used to help interpret the behavior of channel members. This analysis suggests that coal users and the Japanese trading houses understand and implement modern marketing strategy more effectively than Australian producers.     

基金管理人行为对股票市场的作用机制研究

基金管理人作为股票市场上的主要投资者,其投资心理和行为将会对股票市场产生深刻的影响.本文建立数学模型研究基金管理人过去的成败经历对其现在的投资心理和行为的影响以及这种投资心理和行为对股票市场交易量、价格波动性和基金管理人自身投资业绩的影响机制.研究结果表明,基金管理人过去经常失败的经历将使其变得过度悲观,过去经常成功的经历将使其变得过度自信;股票市场的均衡预期股票交易量和均衡价格波动性总是与基金管理人过去的成功经历正相关;过去过分成功或过分失败的基金管理人都不会在未来取得最好的实际预期业绩.