政府管制与大宗敏感商品价格及波动性研究——以世界糖产业为例

政府管制对于大宗商品的定价有何影响?对于价格的波动性又有何影响?这些关系国家经济、经贸乃至国家安全的大宗敏感商品政府应该如何管?这些都是目前国家宏观调控中非常重要而又迫切需要解决的问题。本文以世界糖产业政府管制及国内外糖现、期货实证研究表明,政府管制对于大宗商品的价格及波动性有着重要的影响。具体而言,政府管制使得国际糖价长期低于生产成本,世界食糖市场被严重扭曲。东京谷物交易所原糖、纽约期货交易所原糖期货和郑州商品交易所白糖期货均存在严重的杠杆效应;半衰期由长到短依次为:伦糖、美糖、郑糖、昆糖、东京糖。在文章的最后,通过分析给出了大宗敏感商品政府管制一般的路径和方法。     

Conflict analysis of an export credit trade dispute

The improved metagame analysis algorithm is employed to study an international trade dispute involving government subsidised export credits. In particular, the methodology is applied to a conflict over the awarding of a large contract to supply subway cars by New York City. Logically feasible resolutions to the dispute are highlighted and the possible role of strategic deception in the awarding of the contract is investigated.     

第三方国际环境审计下考虑政府监管与公众监督策略选择的演化博弈研究

企业环境行为问题,特别是企业不当的环境行为对环境造成的潜在影响已成为全球迫切需要解决的问题。第三方国际环境审计能够驱动污染企业积极实施绿色环境行为,基于此文章引入第三方国际环境审计,致立于驱动企业环境行为朝着理想的状态演化,基于有限理性假设的条件,构建了政府、污染企业与公众的演化博弈模型,建立三主体的复制动态方程,得到不同情况下政府、企业与公众的演化稳定策略,探索第三方国际环境介入下的三方决策主体的演化路径和规律,进一步揭示第三方国际环境审计的应用价值。最后,通过仿真分析研究影响三主体最终策略选择的因素。研究表明,政府策略选择对企业是否加入第三方国际环境审计、公众是否参与监督企业加入第三方国际环境审计具有引导作用,公众是否监督企业加入第三方国际环境审计影响企业是否加入第三方国际环境审计;政府、企业与公众三主体的最终策略选择不仅与各主体的初始参与比例有关,同时与其余参数的初始值有关。在不同背景下,政府、企业和公众可以通过理性决策和策略选择,使得三方博弈主体的行为选择能够朝着理想方向演化联合有效遏制企业不当的环境行为,为企业绿色环境行为的积极实施提供相应的参考。     

跨国绿色创新国际合作中机会主义行为治理机制研究

跨国绿色创新国际合作是提高本土企业绿色创新能力,拓展外商企业发展空间的有效途径,但国际合作过程中机会主义行为造成跨国绿色创新国际合作的短期化。本文基于演化博弈理论及模拟仿真手段探索跨国绿色创新国际合作机会主义行为治理机制,以及外商直接投资、对外直接投资及政府监管对跨国绿色创新国际合作机会主义行为治理的作用关系。研究表明：外商直接投资增加、与市场状况和产业类别相匹配的政府监管强度均可有效遏制跨国绿色创新国际合作中机会主义行为,使其向互惠主义策略演化,但对外直接投资因逆向技术溢出效应较弱,对其遏制作用效果甚微。同时,乐观的绿色创新国际合作市场前景将显著抑制国际合作中的机会主义行为,有利于长期绿色创新合作关系的维持,而悲观的市场前景不利于跨国绿色创新国际合作稳定性。最后,本文设计出最优机会主义行为治理机制,促进跨国绿色创新国际合作双赢目标的实现。     

Diagnosing long-term information problems

Michael White, of the Ashridge Management Research Unit, and Andrew Leigh, of the Social Services Department of the London Borough of Hammersmith have recently conducted a study to identify information problems in local government long-term planning. The results of the study show how an organization, even if it is relatively inexperienced in its planning, can effectively highlight shortages of information, hidden assumptions, and systematic biasses in forecasts. The diagnosis is based on answering essentially simple but systematic questions during the planning process.     

What the new GATT trade agreement means for plastics

The recently concluded Tokyo Round of GATT trade negotiations resulted in an agreement that can considerably restructure the way nations deal with international trade problems. As in the 1967 Kennedy Round, tariffs have again been significantly cut, by about one-third on average for industrial products. But in addition to the tariff reductions, for the first time in multilateral negotiations very comprehensive agreements have been reached on the manner in which nations will deal with important non-tariff measures that affect trade, including subsidy and countervailing duties, dumping, valuation, standards, government procurement and import licensing. The result is forecast to become a new era in international trade that will be characterized as neither protectionist, nor free trade. Instead, what will be emerging will be an era of ‘managed trade’, with the historical barrier of tariffs largely removed, and the non-tariff measures that operate to distort trade managed by governments to achieve ‘fair’ conditions of international commerce. How this new era of ‘managed trade’ will work out in practice will be determined as case history develops from the national and multilateral dispute settlement procedures established by the agreements. Required will be goodwill on all sides, and an effective collaboration between industry and government.While this article is written with reference to the U.S. plastics industry, it includes data and interpretation important for all industries and for all countries.     

资源枯竭型城市产业结构优化升级研究

资源枯竭型城市优化产业结构的关键是要降低产业发展对资源的依赖程度。以黄石市为例,根据1999～2009年统计数据,运用比较劳动生产率、产业结构偏离度、偏离-份额分析3种方法对产业结构优化效益进行了实证研究。结果表明,黄石市产业结构实现了一定程度的优化升级,但产业发展对资源仍具有较强的依赖性,限制了产业竞争力的提升。只有从产业结构的合理化、高度化、有重点的调整3个方面入手,加强政府职责、提高产业科技力量以及推进三大产业有重点的发展,才能促进黄石市产业结构进一步优化升级。     

基于环境信息和金融市场不对称博弈模型分析

由于金融市场存在信息不对称使得投资决策者缺乏必要的环境信息,从而导致了投资决策信息不完全、金融资金分配不合理等问题。本文在Nikolaou,Chymis和Evangelinos^[5]提出的环境信息、金融市场不对称博弈模型的基础上,引入政府局中人行为策略,构建了政府、企业与金融市场之间的博弈模型。通过设置相关参数发现,该博弈模型能够覆盖Nikolaou,Chymis和Evangelinos^[5]提出的模型,并证明了在政府局中人参与并满足一定条件的情况下,由环境信息缺失引起的信息不对称问题可以通过引入第三方国际环境审计来解决,从而为我国环境污染问题的化解机制提供新的研究角度。     

Competition within the U.S. National Security Regime: A study of the U.S. Aerospace Defense Sector

This article examines the aerospace defense sector and the national export control regime within which U.S. corporations operate. While the U.S. federal government plays many roles in this industry, the focus here is on its role as regulator of defense exports from the United States. From this vantage point, ten case studies illustrate the difficulties faced by companies in this challenging environment, and highlight factors that lead to noncompliance with U.S. government regulations. Firm performance effects are investigated, including impacts on profits, share price, and reputation. The paper concludes with implications for international management practice and international business research that reflect realities in the aerospace defense sector.     

Trust, Confidence, and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence—both in precipitation and in possible recovery—are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust—such as supportive or skeptical—are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis—revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate—can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.     

Trust,confidence, familiarity,and support for land-based recirculating aquaculture facilities

Surveys in three U.S. localities (n = 523) with proposed or existing land-based aquaculture facilities probed trust's relationship with perceived net benefits and public intentions to cooperate with siting of this novel technology. The trust, confidence, and cooperation (TCC) model posits that shared values shape willingness to be vulnerable to others (trust), while past performance shapes certainty that others will behave as expected (confidence). Trust affects confidence given moral outweighs performance information, possibly varying by familiarity. Other research suggests that trust shapes benefit and risk perceptions, which drive cooperation (defined here by potentially observable behavior: voting on siting, trying to influence government decisions directly or through citizen groups, and buying or eating facility fish). Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that a two-factor model fit the trust/confidence measures better than a one-factor model or a two-factor model without inter-factor correlation, indicating (despite a strong association of trust and confidence) that they are empirically distinct. Path analyses suggested that trust had stronger direct effects on cooperation than did confidence, reflecting the TCC notion that moral information underlying trust judgments is more influential, and stronger indirect effects through benefit-risk judgments. Model fit was better than if the benefit-risk mediator was omitted. Trust in government had a small direct effect on cooperation and confidence, but a large effect on trust in the corporation, and model fit was much worse if any of these paths was omitted. Low familiarity with the project lowered both model fit and trust–confidence association. We discuss implications for risk analysis theory and practice.     

Governing the Circular Economy in the City: Local Planning Practice in London

ABSTRACT

There is interest in the circular economy as a framework for transition from a linear take-make-dispose model of production and consumption, to a circular model which decouples economic growth from resource consumption. However, there is limited understanding of how that applies to the city through governance lens. This paper examines evidence from 28 municipalities in London to unpack the ‘government’ and ‘governance’ of circular economy in the city. It examines the ‘governmentality’ of circular economy in planning practice and reflects on what austerity localism and scalar politics might mean for the planning and governance of circular economy in cities.     

Modelling the effects of institutional support and international knowledge on competitive capabilities and international performance: Evidence from an emerging economy

This paper explores the process through which institutional support initiatives contribute to the international performance of firms from the small open economy of Malaysia. We examine both direct and indirect causal effects of institutional support (informational, training, trade mobility and financial aid-related support) on internationalization. We develop a model to address how institutional support initiatives affect the performance of export-oriented or so-called born global firms. From a survey of 250 firms from Malaysia, an emerging Southeast Asian market, we find that government support initiatives do not have significant impacts on firm performance unless examined based on processes of government support initiatives, international knowledge, commitment, competitive capabilities, and international performance. Government support initiatives play a critical role in export-oriented firms from small open economies (SMOPECs) in emerging markets by contributing to a number of contextual deficits that determine the international performance of a firm. This study provides guidelines for policy makers and business owners on how institutional support can facilitate the accumulation of knowledge about international markets, enhance commitment to exports and help firms gain competitive capabilities in the export market for greater success in international markets.     

市场主体信心与财政乘数效应的非线性特征——基于SVAR模型的反事实分析

本文基于SVAR模型和反事实分析,利用季度数据,实证考察了市场信心对我国财政政策乘数效应重要影响。分析表明,在经济遭遇较强外部冲击时,以支出扩张为主的需求管理有助于提振市场信心,市场信心恢复放大了财政政策乘数效应。但随着经济逐步走出危机阴影,市场信心作用开始减弱。同时随着需求管理政策实施时间递延,支出扩张的边际增长效应开始递减,为满足支出需要,持续增税的负面效应开始递增。扩支增收效应相互叠加,再加上财政收支结构不当选择,使市场主体信心开始逐步受到侵蚀,并产生较强谨慎动机。市场信心和财政政策的相互作用,使财政政策乘数效应快速减弱。所以动态考察我国以扩支增收为主要特征的财政调控,尽管应对危机的乘数效应特别显著,但长期看乘数效应却非常弱,甚至出现非凯恩斯效应。本文政策含义非常明确,充分利用市场信心与财政政策效应非线性特征先验知识,适时转换需求管理型财政调控策略,既可避免经济增长对财政扩张政策过度依赖,又可提高财政政策灵活性、有效性和可持续性。     

End-of-life care around the world: achievements to date and challenges remaining

From the moment her interest in terminal care was awakened, Cicely Saunders was alert to the international dimensions of the subject. Her first patient in the late 1940s was an emigré Polish Jew dying alone and in isolation in a busy London hospital. Her letters from the 1950s onwards show an unquenchable thirst for new knowledge and a span of contacts and communications that was global in its reach. By the early 1960s, she was making fact-finding visits to the United States and Europe. Even before it opened to patients, St Christopher's Hospice was a beacon of inspiration to like-minded colleagues from many countries, eager to see how the model of practice was being operationalized and--more important still--how it could be adapted and modified in other settings. In the later years of her life, Cicely Saunders remained in contact with colleagues all over the world. She wrote introductions to numerous textbooks and collections; recorded interviews that were broadcast at international conferences; harnessed her name and energies to major efforts to promote palliative care globally; and, to the very end, served as a source of inspiration to palliative care activists, policy makers, educators, and researchers. As this special issue of the journal demonstrates so eloquently, that legacy lives on.     

How Autonomous are Public Corporations in Hong Kong? The Case of the Airport Authority

This article examines the degree of autonomy of Hong Kong’s Airport Authority (AA). Traditionally, airport management in Hong Kong was the responsibility of the government’s Civil Aviation Department. The AA was established in 1995 to manage the new international airport at Chek Lap Kok which opened in 1998. It was expected to run as a commercial enterprise but, because of its strategic importance, there was concern that it should not become an independent empire detached from government control. As a hybrid type of organization, the AA has moved steadily towards full commercialization. The government has also put its privatization on the agenda. Its transformation may have some implications for the redefinition of the future autonomy boundaries of public corporations in Hong Kong.

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Developments in Brazilian food safety policy

Brazil is an important case study of food safety policies because it is the eighth largest economy in the world in terms of Gross Domestic Product. Analysis of the policy and quality management initiatives of the Brazilian government shows that recent activities are more strongly oriented toward assuring access to international markets than to assuring the safety of food sold in domestic markets. This orientation has important implications for agribusiness firms operating in Brazil. Consumer awareness and consumer protection activities are increasing within the Brazilian economy, often with government support. However, developments in Brazil's food safety policy are likely to continue to emphasize quality assurance for the export market.     

政府监管与企业加入第三方国际环境审计的模糊博弈分析

针对政府环境监管与企业实施环境行为博弈分析中无法对双方的损益情况做出判断的问题,文章结合三角模糊数构建了政府监管和企业加入第三方国际环境审计的博弈模型,分别指出了纯策略纳什均衡和混合策略均衡情况需要满足的条件,讨论了政府与污染环境企业博弈策略的影响因素及作用机制,为政府监管与企业加入第三方国际环境审计顺利实施提供了相关建议。然后通过三角结构元方法对算例进行求解,验证了结论的正确性和可行性,引入三角模糊概念更加符合实际应用情况,拓展了第三方国际环境审计的应用背景。研究结果表明,政府对消费者消费的引导和对污染企业的惩罚对企业是否决定加入第三方国际环境审计起着举足轻重的作用。     

WHY FIRMS SEEK ISO 9000 CERTIFICATION: REGULATORY COMPLIANCE OR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE?

Proponents of iso 9000 certification claim that it is a low-cost signal of a firm's commitment to quality and a meaningful component of total quality management (TQM). Critics claim that it has little relation to TQM and is a tariff on international trade. We test the hypothesis that firms obtain ISO 9000 certification to comply with government and customer demands by estimating a probit model of the certification decision. The results support the view of proponents of ISO 9000. After controlling for regulatory and customer pressures to obtain ISO 9000, other factors related to quality management and quality-based competition explain the adoption decision.     

开放经济中跨国公司的最优所得税模型

通过对不同避免双重征税方法下最优所得税模型的建立,解析了政府最优政策的收入函数,得到税收竞争均衡中的公司所得课税政策.对小型开放经济而言,在扣除法和抵免法,以及免税法与抵免法的不对称体系下,对跨国公司从源征收公司所得税都是最优选择.由此,得到不同于国际税收经典理论的结论.