Involving managers in system-improvement planning

The planning of an organization is conceptualized as two separate but complementary processes. One of these two, namely system-improvement planning—which is concerned with changing the nature of the ongoing activities of the organization with a view to improving them—is generally neglected or poorly performed. It is suggested here that the reason for this neglect is the prevailing organizational philosophy which inhibits system-improvement planning. An alternative philosophy would be required for its effective implementation. But initially structural changes to support the new philosophy would have to be introduced.     

How corporate planning responds to uncertainty

This article is based upon an SSRC research project into the influence of computer methods on decision making. During this research, information on the planning systems of a cross-section of British industry was obtained.The paper illustrates how managers in these firms were coping with planning in the present conditions of extreme uncertainty about the future, combined with adverse economic and business conditions. Conventional planning theory, together with some modern observations on it, are briefly described and then the paper shows how, in the firms visited, the structure of planning was more complex than this theory.It goes on to show that today's critical conditions were not leading to management putting aside their plans and computer models and “muddling through’. They were actually leading to an acceleration in the adoption of formal planning and decision making methods but in a somewhat different manner to conventional planning theory.Seven different modes of planning were identified with integrated operational planning being the most common, possibly the most essential to survival and sometimes the only planning possible into today's conditions. A trend to extend the operational plan to 2 to 3 years and to reduce the firm's long range plan from 5 to 3 years was also observed.Long range plans were being considered as planning and decision making tools and not as blue-prints of the firm's future, as accurate long range forecasting was impossible. Three types of strategic planning were identified with that carried out at intervals probably being the most appropriate for medium sized firms in today's conditions.     

How French managers deal with radical change

Top management are increasingly concerned with the flexibility of their companies and with the problem of implementing strategy. This article presents a model of strategic change derived from the managers' experience and perceptions in some companies which achieved radical transformation. Indepth studies were carried out in four diverse companies. The experience of top managers revealed that the management of strategic change required an integrated approach to six interrelated areas—formulating a strategic project, managing the development of resources and skills, negotiating with the environment increasing internal communication of strategy, dealing with power, influencing the norms of behaviour and developing a team of transformation-minded managers.     

Developing planning models

Mr. Holloway joined the Gulf Oil Corporation in 1939. His previous publications are in the fields of chemical engineering, statistics and computing.He is now the Senior Adviser on Planning Systems and member of Gulf's European Planning Council.The paper presents the author's view that linear programming is an efficient vehicle for long range planning, that it is more comprehensive and when properly structured requires no more computer time than the perhaps more conventional simulation models.Further, that it has the great advantage that the planner himself can control not only the data content of his model, but can also control the way in which the data is treated within the model even to the extent of making drastic matrix changes.     

基金管理者报酬的线性模型研究与实证分析

探讨了四种跟踪组合回报率与目标回报率间偏差的线性模型 ,线性偏差比传统的二次型偏差更能准确描述投资者的风险态度 ,用线性规划给出了明确的优化方案 ,并对上海证券 A股各分类资产组合作出了实证分析和比较 ,得出为达不同的投资目标投资者确定投资组合及基金管理者报酬的各种优化模型 .     

How to design a financial planning model.

Corporate planning models frequently consist of integrated pro forma income statements, statements of financial position, and cashflow statements. When implemented by utilizing computer-based planning systems, these models allow managers to explore potential decisions in ‘what if?’ planning analyses.The logic of an integrated financial statement planning model can be arranged following either a ‘funds needed to balance approach’ or a ‘direct approach’. With a funds needed to balance approach total assets are set equal to total liabilities plus equities to satisfy this fundamental accounting identity. Logic in such models is often difficult to validate. In the direct approach, total assets are calculated independently of total liabilities plus equities providing an extremely strong test for model validation prior to using the model to assess ‘what if’ alternatives.In this paper, the author discusses the logic of integrated financial planning models and their implementation with computer-based planning systems. The funds need to balance approach and the direct approach are described and contrasted to assist corporate planners in evaluating and selecting a method for constructing the logic of corporate planning models.     

How to develop and use scenarios

Scenario analysis is an increasingly popular way to look at the future business environment. This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature on scenario analysis. It summarizes what is currently known about this approach to forecasting, and offers some guidelines regarding the construction and use of scenarios. It also offers a comparison and evaluation of many of the techniques that have been proffered to generate scenarios, suggesting which are worth while and which are not.     

How to integrate strategic planning into your management process

The primary purpose of strategic planning is to enable management to make decisions today which will affect the firm over the long run where the long run is characterized by risk and uncertainty. If strategic planning is to be useful to management it must be an integral part of the decision making process and not merely an appendage to the management process. In this paper we shall define some of the problems involved in integrating strategic planning and strategic planning tools into the decision process. We shall also suggest some possible solutions to these problems.     

Computer models for corporate planning

This paper presents results of a survey of corporate modelling in 65 U.K. companies. It shows that corporate models were already used in a wide range of industries by 1973 and analyses the characteristics of these models, the uses to which they were put, the background of the model builders, approaches to development of models that were adopted, costs of development, and indications of success or failure. It is, for instance, shown that many corporate models are relatively small and simple, and have been built by accountants, planners and other ultimate users, using special facilities for corporate modelling offered by computer bureaux and consultants.     

Assessment of aircraft logistics planning models

An assessment of military logistics planning models offers a great deal of information about the modelling state of art. Such tools include both analytic and simulation model types. They can deal with both static and dynamic characteristics of the environment. They require highly detailed data for their operation and can compute over a large number of interacting variables. Unfortunately, these models do not satisfy adequately the requirements of the particular logistics issue for which they were assessed, which is whether such models can be used in early logistics planning for new weapon systems. One difficulty is that such planning must make extensive use of tradeoffs and sensitivity analysis to take account of the flexibility and uncertainties existing at the early stages. Another is that the existent models call for detailed data which is usually not available at that time. Therefore, although the models do fulfill a particular useful planning function, they must be replaced or augmented by a new class of models that will much more closely satisfy the planning need. This new capability requires a serious research effort that will benefit not only the military logistics planners, but also other planners dealing with large capital development programs.     

How Singapore makes central planning work

In this article the author points out that, contrary to the assumptions of many, and the statements of some well-known writers in the fields of economics and management, central planning does work. It may be that Singapore has achieved success with it over a 25 year period because of the exceptional qualities of the leaders. Certainly that is part of the story, but the author suggests that the Singapore central decision-making body has been implementing what corporate planners would identify today as ‘orthodox theory’. He asks: ‘Could the same kind of success have been possible elsewhere?’     

How managers plan—the analysis of managers' activities

This paper analyzes the positions of Mintzberg and planning experts on the extent to which managers plan and the importance of planning to management. Mintzberg contends that managers do not plan. The ‘planning literature’ contends that planning leads to effective management. In a replication of Mintzberg's study, the authors found support for the planning literature's position. The discrepancy between Mintzberg and the planning literature is explained by the shortcomings of the observational method used by Mintzberg. A suggested modification of Mintzberg's method is given.     

Strategic change and organisational restructuring: How managers negotiate change initiatives

This study examines the organizational changes and varied response amongst managers to those changes in seven subsidiaries of multinational apparel firms. Because of intensified competition from low wage economies, such firms have been forced to restructure production processes to heighten both their productive efficiency and attain greater flexibility at the plant level. Much of this change has involved the introduction of high performance work practices (HPWP), a central focus of much recent scholarship on post-Fordism. Drawing from several qualitative strategies, this paper focuses on the role of managers as agents of strategy implementation and discusses how they negotiate, accept or resist such changes. We describe the failure to implement HPWP as some firms seek efficiency gains from work restructuring rather than broader effectiveness goals that would have deepened employee participation. In doing so we theorise about structural impediments to organisational innovation, the operational constraints that render some managers change recipients rather than change agents, and what this might tell us about micro-political strategies within large organisations as key actors negotiate a new organisational reality.     

How effective are models?

This article discusses a number of common interpretations of ‘implementation’ in the literature, and how these have been confused. Various different levels of implementation are then discussed, including the concept of model effectiveness. This is concerned with both the operational effectiveness of the model, as shown by a tangible improvement in the system modelled, and the personal effectiveness in helping users learn more about the system itself. Research is then described to explore various aspects of model usage and effectiveness. The research took place in the context of a business game used by a large number of practising managers. An unusual feature of the game was the fact that participants were offered the use of a number of models to aid their decisions. The usage of the models, and their effects, were measured objectively. Results showed that models were used extensively, and their effects were advantageous in a number of ways. The implications of this work are discussed.     

Helping managers to develop strategies

Concepts within strategic management are defined and a framework for strategic analysis and planning is presented. Within the planning operation, corporate strategy and corporate integration are central to strategic management. The timetable largely prescribes the procedural steps involved in strategic analysis and planning, and the character of each of these steps is determined by the frame of reference, or the aims and purpose of strategic managers, which are established during strategic planning. As a practical management tool, the framework developed here offers the possibility to improve management performance and to increase corporate effectiveness and flexibility.