A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

论1946年国民党内战政策的选择及其后果

抗战胜利后所出现的特定的政治环境,使国民党面临着和平民主或内战独裁的两难选择。最终,基于党派及其私人的既得利益的维护,以及对于共产党力量的低估,国民党选择了内战政策。这一错误的政策选择,使国民党政权很快陷入了空前严重的危机,丧尽了其统治的合法性。     

建国前后上海工人工薪与生活状况之考察

抗战爆发前,上海工人薪金收入大多数不能维持最低生活标准;抗战爆发后,上海工人生活状况更是每况愈下;抗战胜利后,国民政府实行“胜利加薪”,上海工人的工资收入有过短暂的上调, 但是,随着内战的爆发,上海工人又陷入了饥饿或半饥饿的生活状态。建国初,中共采取各种措施提高工人的工资水平,上海工人的生活状况较建国前有明显地改善和提高。从抗战及内战时期走过来的上海工人,对新中国建立以后的生活状况基本上是满意的,因而比较容易接受和拥护中共的政策。     

Who kills whom? The micro-dynamics of civilian targeting in civil war

Prior research on civilian targeting in civil war has focused on characteristics of either the government or rebel group that make them more or less likely to target civilians. However, no government or rebel group targets a population, but rather individuals within it. To date, no study has explored the issue of why particular civilians would be chosen by one actor versus the other. This study examines the divergent civilian-targeting strategies of governments and rebel groups. We argue that unique identification problems facing each political actor in civil war leads the parties to resort to social stereotypes based on data derived from known enemy subjects killed in combat. We specify and then test a model that accounts for time and space and the demographic characteristics of each victim utilizing a new dataset on the personal, political, and demographic characteristics of individual civilians targeted by the state and rebels in the civil war in Nepal (1996–2006). The findings demonstrate for the first time that governments (and rebels) tend to kill the same types of individuals in non-combat settings as they kill in combat exchanges, and the civilians targeted by each actor differ significantly in the extent that they share certain social traits.     

川军出川抗战述评

川军作为旧中国的地方实力派军队,虽然在一系列的内战中给国家和人民带来了严重的灾难,但在抗战时期,他们从民族利益和自己的生存出发,大多数参加了抗击日本侵略的民族解放战争,在抗日战争的正面战场上,给日本帝国主义以沉重的打击。对于推动国民党正面战场的抗战,对巩固抗日民族统一战线以及实现抗日战争的最后胜利做出了巨大的贡献。     

包含于组织中的无序对隐缠序的解构之解构

组织创新作为复杂性研究中一个极为核心的问题受到普遍关注,而要弄清组织如何创新就必须厘清一个十分关键的中间环节,这便是组织中的有序通过什么因素以及在什么条件下以什么方式得以促成其在组织层级演化过程中的传递从而导致组织的不断创新的。其实,包含于组织中的无序在组织中对有序的传递起了关键性作用,正是因为这种传递,使得有序在延续原有基本结构的同时也发生了一些适应性改变,从而导致了组织的创新。     

Organizational ecology of immigrant employment and organizational buffer zones: Who leaves first when the organization gets into trouble?

Using data from the German social insurance system immigrant employment in organizational buffer zones will be investigated from an organizational ecology perspective. Theories in organization and labor market research predict higher exit rates of employees holding jobs in buffer zones. These buffer zones protect organizations from unfavorable environmental turbulences. Consequently, analyzing the impact of buffer zone employment on job stability of immigrants requires a fully dynamic approach, which goes beyond a mere identification of generally increased turnover rates of immigrants.In the first step, determinants of organizational dissolution rates will be estimated. In order to obtain a dynamic measurement of unfavorable environmental conditions, the model includes both organizational and time-varying environmental characteristics of organizational populations. This will be done by using a three-level mixed-effects hazard model controlling for observed and unobserved environmental characteristics. In the second step, dissolution rates predicted in the first step will be used as an explanatory variable. These rates indicate the degree of enactment of the flexible buffer zone. It will be shown that immigrants have indeed higher turnover rates, but they tend to remain longer in their organizations when environmental conditions deteriorate—and they are not those who leave first when the organization gets into trouble.     

Public school accountability,workplace culture,and teacher morale

Educational scholars claim that teacher morale has suffered from accountability pressures and constrained professionalism, but exactly what is most diminished by these pressures remains unclear. Drawing on recent theoretical work on public school organizational culture, we hypothesize that accountability pressures hurt teacher morale and increase the risk of turnover by undermining the professional culture of the school and by diminishing teacher cooperation and trust. We find support for this hypothesis in a national sample of teachers in 2011–12, and a follow-up survey from 2012–13. The analyses test whether a collective pedagogical teacher culture, comprised of professional culture and teacher collaboration, buffers the impact of these pressures that diminish teacher morale. Counter to past research, we find that a strong collective pedagogical teacher culture does not buffer teachers from the ill effects of negative workplace conditions in the form of accountability pressures. We also find that accountability pressures in the form of district dismissals are associated with a higher likelihood of teachers leaving their school, and this relationship is not mitigated by strong professional culture. We conclude that accountability pressures partly undermine goals of improving performance and equity in public schools by sowing seeds of teacher dissatisfaction and contributing to teacher turnover, thus thwarting student achievement in struggling schools.     

抗战时期重庆文艺报刊述略

抗战时期重庆文艺报刊紧紧围绕“抗战”这一主题来开展工作,为抗日战争舆论宣传工作作出了较大贡献。文艺办报或参与报纸工作、文字报刊出版时间长短不一是这一时期重庆文艺报刊的重要特征。     

Preferences,constraints, and the process of sex segregation in college majors: A choice analysis

The persistence of horizontal sex segregation in higher education continues to puzzle social scientists. To help resolve this puzzle, we analyze a sample of college entrants in Germany with a discrete choice design that allows for social learning from the experiences of others. We make at least two contributions to the state of research. First, we test whether essentialist gender stereotypes affect major selection mostly through internalization or rather as external constraints that high school graduates adapt their behavior to. Empirically, we find that internalized vocational interests better explain gendered major choices than conformance with friends' and parents' expectations does. Second, we scrutinize whether segregation results from women's anticipation of gendered family roles or from their anticipation of sex-based discrimination, but we find no evidence for either of these hypotheses. As in most previous studies, differences in mathematics achievement fail to explain gendered patterns of selection into college majors.     

救亡与启蒙的二重奏--对抗战文学的一点认识

杨义从东亚学的角度阐发了战争的历史记忆,认为我们今天所要讨论的历史记忆,就是从文学与战争的关系中,正视和剖析那场沉重的东亚地图的撕裂和反撕裂的战争,及其至今尚未得到平复的严重的后遗症,从中寻求人类的正义感、责任感民族以及民族和国家之间正常、健康、和好、互惠发展的历史可能性。严家炎探讨了抗战时期启蒙与救亡的关系,认为在抗日战争这个"救亡"的高潮时期,文学中的"启蒙"仍与"抗日"结伴而行,并没有停止。"启蒙"任务后来被取消,真正的原因在革命队伍内部,是封建思想侵袭革命队伍的结果。王富仁一方面分析了战争记忆与战争文学之间的区别,认为战争文学应当是作家从战争记忆中做出的一种人性的反思;另一方面分析了中外战争文学的差异,认为理想的战争文学应当充盈可贵的人类意识和人性意识。黄修己对战争文学做了深刻的反思,认为我们在政治层面上歌颂正义战争的同时,还应该从人性层面上批判战争。战争文学最主要的不是战争中的宣传鼓动作用,而是通过影响人的感情来提升人性。吴福辉提出了"大抗战文学"的概念,并深入分析了五种类型的"战争体验"小说,认为这些作品将战时特殊的体验延伸到对民族性的自省,凝结为战争文学的最好的结晶。刘增杰深入论述了抗战反思文学思潮,认为在这种反思文学中,一类偏重于对现实政治层面弊端进行揭露与鞭挞;另一类则站在人类的立场,从精神层面对民族惰性进行剖析。指出:反思文学是抗战文学结出的最成熟的果实,抗战反思文学中保留着永具活力民族记忆。秦弓将眼光投向了已经淡出人们历史记忆的反映抗日战争正面战场的文学创作和文学研究,认为表现正面战场的文学创作取得了丰硕的成果,留下了关于抗战的珍贵的民族记忆。应该珍惜这笔宝贵的文学财富,全面启动抗战文学与正面战场的研究,借以填补现代文学史不应有的空白。     

抗战文学与正面战场

杨义从东亚学的角度阐发了战争的历史记忆,认为我们今天所要讨论的历史记忆,就是从文学与战争的关系中,正视和剖析那场沉重的东亚地图的撕裂和反撕裂的战争,及其至今尚未得到平复的严重的后遗症,从中寻求人类的正义感、责任感民族以及民族和国家之间正常、健康、和好、互惠发展的历史可能性。严家炎探讨了抗战时期启蒙与救亡的关系,认为在抗日战争这个"救亡"的高潮时期,文学中的"启蒙"仍与"抗日"结伴而行,并没有停止。"启蒙"任务后来被取消,真正的原因在革命队伍内部,是封建思想侵袭革命队伍的结果。王富仁一方面分析了战争记忆与战争文学之间的区别,认为战争文学应当是作家从战争记忆中做出的一种人性的反思;另一方面分析了中外战争文学的差异,认为理想的战争文学应当充盈可贵的人类意识和人性意识。黄修己对战争文学做了深刻的反思,认为我们在政治层面上歌颂正义战争的同时,还应该从人性层面上批判战争。战争文学最主要的不是战争中的宣传鼓动作用,而是通过影响人的感情来提升人性。吴福辉提出了"大抗战文学"的概念,并深入分析了五种类型的"战争体验"小说,认为这些作品将战时特殊的体验延伸到对民族性的自省,凝结为战争文学的最好的结晶。刘增杰深入论述了抗战反思文学思潮,认为在这种反思文学中,一类偏重于对现实政治层面弊端进行揭露与鞭挞;另一类则站在人类的立场,从精神层面对民族惰性进行剖析。指出:反思文学是抗战文学结出的最成熟的果实,抗战反思文学中保留着永具活力民族记忆。秦弓将眼光投向了已经淡出人们历史记忆的反映抗日战争正面战场的文学创作和文学研究,认为表现正面战场的文学创作取得了丰硕的成果,留下了关于抗战的珍贵的民族记忆。应该珍惜这笔宝贵的文学财富,全面启动抗战文学与正面战场的研究,借以填补现代文学史不应有的空白。     

对"战争文学"的反思

杨义从东亚学的角度阐发了战争的历史记忆,认为我们今天所要讨论的历史记忆,就是从文学与战争的关系中,正视和剖析那场沉重的东亚地图的撕裂和反撕裂的战争,及其至今尚未得到平复的严重的后遗症,从中寻求人类的正义感、责任感民族以及民族和国家之间正常、健康、和好、互惠发展的历史可能性。严家炎探讨了抗战时期启蒙与救亡的关系,认为在抗日战争这个"救亡"的高潮时期,文学中的"启蒙"仍与"抗日"结伴而行,并没有停止。"启蒙"任务后来被取消,真正的原因在革命队伍内部,是封建思想侵袭革命队伍的结果。王富仁一方面分析了战争记忆与战争文学之间的区别,认为战争文学应当是作家从战争记忆中做出的一种人性的反思;另一方面分析了中外战争文学的差异,认为理想的战争文学应当充盈可贵的人类意识和人性意识。黄修己对战争文学做了深刻的反思,认为我们在政治层面上歌颂正义战争的同时,还应该从人性层面上批判战争。战争文学最主要的不是战争中的宣传鼓动作用,而是通过影响人的感情来提升人性。吴福辉提出了"大抗战文学"的概念,并深入分析了五种类型的"战争体验"小说,认为这些作品将战时特殊的体验延伸到对民族性的自省,凝结为战争文学的最好的结晶。刘增杰深入论述了抗战反思文学思潮,认为在这种反思文学中,一类偏重于对现实政治层面弊端进行揭露与鞭挞;另一类则站在人类的立场,从精神层面对民族惰性进行剖析。指出:反思文学是抗战文学结出的最成熟的果实,抗战反思文学中保留着永具活力民族记忆。秦弓将眼光投向了已经淡出人们历史记忆的反映抗日战争正面战场的文学创作和文学研究,认为表现正面战场的文学创作取得了丰硕的成果,留下了关于抗战的珍贵的民族记忆。应该珍惜这笔宝贵的文学财富,全面启动抗战文学与正面战场的研究,借以填补现代文学史不应有的空白。     

公民权与全球公民社会的构建

公民社会是与作为自然人的私人社会相区别、而直接同政治国家相对应的组织化和政治化的民间社会。其核心的要素是以私人社会的共同利益为纽带而形成的政治共同体(各种非政府组织),来集中和表达社会的共同意志和利益,使私域中的诉求扩展为公共诉求,以利于开展社会运动或社会斗争, 促成对国家的民主转型和改造。在当今全球化时代,一国之内的国家公民延伸为世界公民,公民社会也越过国界,在全球范围内进行跨国结社和社会活动,形成“全球公民社会”,并在全球发挥其影响力、支持力。     

构建社会主义和谐社会的好途径--海南少数民族地区创建文明生态村的调查

本文论述创建文明生态村为构建社会主义和谐社会提供了基本条件、物质基础、精神支撑与政治和组织保障。     

战后中间势力的崛起与分化

抗战胜利后 ,国民党、共产党以外的政治力量 ,由分散而趋于整合 ,形成松散的政治同盟——中间势力 ,崛起于中国的政治舞台。以参加政治协商会议、参与调停内战为标志 ,中间势力步入政治核心层面 ,对中国政治格局的走向产生了不可忽视的影响。因为其政治追求与政治现实的严重脱节 ,随着时局的发展 ,以制宪国民大会为分水岭 ,中间势力最终发生分化 :一部分沦为国民党的附庸 ,大部分响应中国共产党的号召 ,参加新政治协商会议 ,其和平民主建国的构想得以实现。     

现代教育与公民社会的建构

作为现代性的产物,现代教育是公民社会的价值系统。将现代教育与公民社会的构建置于现代性的背景和框架内进行研究,从现有国内外的文献来看,相对薄弱而分散。在现代性的宏观视野下,现代教育对公民社会的构建之间具有一种不可分割的内在关系,现代教育是公民社会形成的必要条件,且是公民社会持续衍生的关键保障。现代教育通过塑造现代公民身份、整合社会秩序、维持社会系统来实现对公民社会构建的功能。现代教育与公民社会构建之间的关系及其相互作用的路径的探索,对当下中国公民社会的建立将起着十分重要的作用。     

Contradictions of commitment in the new economy: Insecurity, time, and technology

The new flexible, 24/7 economy is characterized by employment insecurity, time pressure, and technologies that increase employees’ accessibility to their workplace. Accompanying these changes is a changing social contract between employees and their employers. Labor process and organizational theories suggest that these employment characteristics will undermine the attachment component of organizational commitment that remains an important feature of contemporary workplaces. We use an unpublished dataset of a nationally representative sample of employed individuals from the Families and Work Life Institute to test hypotheses linking the attachment component of organizational commitment to organizational insecurity, time pressure, and technologically created accessibility. Our expectation is that these changes will be particularly important for decreasing older cohorts of workers’ attachment to the organization since they have experienced a change in the social contract. The data are largely consistent with these expectations.     

School choice & social stratification: How intra-district transfers shift the racial/ethnic and economic composition of schools

The liberation model hypothesizes that school choice liberates students from underperforming schools by giving them the opportunity to seek academically superior schooling options outside of their neighborhoods. Subsequently, school choice is hypothesized to diminish stratification in schools. Data from one urban school district is analyzed to test these hypotheses. We specifically examine which factors influence the propensity for parents to participate in choice, and how school choice changes the racial/ethnic and economic composition of schools. We further examine how school choice influences similar changes within distinct sociogeographic areas within the district. We find that families who are zoned to more racially/ethnically and economically diverse schools in sociogeographically diverse areas are more likely to participate in school choice. We also find that intra-district choice is associated with a slight increase in social stratification throughout the district, with more substantial stratification occurring in the most demographically diverse areas and schools.     

国家治理模式构建及应注意的若干问题

良好的国家治理是促进社会经济发展的关键要素.国家治理模式是由政府、市场与公民社会相互耦合所形成的一种整体性的制度结构模式.它们是由不同的制度安排、组织形态和治理机制构成的制度系统,共同维系着一个国家整体的秩序治理,并在此基础上协调资源配置,推动社会经济的持续发展.国家治理模式呈现出动态演化与形态多样性的特征.现代国家治理模式构建需要立足于本国国情,有效协调政府、市场与公民社会之间的关系,使之形成一种互惠与共生的状态.