Social Differences in the Decline of Marital Reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the twentieth century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility.     

Fertility and Culture in Eastern Europe: A Case Study of Riga, Latvia, 1867–1881

Recent research on the secular decline of fertility in historical Europe has focused on cultural explanations in the wake of the European Fertility Project's failure to confirm demographic transition theory. Using the city of Riga in present-day Latvia as a case study, the essay provides initial estimates of nuptiality and fertility for resident language and religious groups in 1867 and 1881, and reviews the prospects of future work. Despite obstacles, Eastern Europe offers researchers an exceptional opportunity to test major cultural and economic hypotheses about the fertility decline because sustained ethnic diversity coexisted with economic development.     

Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings.     

Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.     

A Century of Nuptiality in Spain, 1900–2007

This article describes the annual evolution of nuptiality in Spain from the beginning of the last century up to the present day. The analysis is based on data on first marriages from population registration data (Movimiento Natural de Población) after various adjustment and estimation operations. This source has an advantage with respect to census data, since it allows us to follow the annual nuptiality fluctuations that are very sensitive to prevailing social and economic conditions. Over the long term, the phases of nuptiality in Spain are comparable to those observed in Western Europe. However, leaving aside the period disturbed by the Civil War (1936–1939), Spain does exhibit some particular features: a long interlude from 1940 to 1959 marked by late marriage, rooted in the long depression of the Spanish economy; a prolonged rise in nuptiality which lasted until the end of the 1970s, corresponding to the late arrival of the first oil shock in Spain; and finally, a certain delay in the decline of marriage, accompanied—since the early 2000s only—by a parallel diffusion of cohabitation. Last, Spain is converging with Europe in another aspect that is seldom taken into account. While, from 1950 to 1980, it was one of the few European countries to register a first marriage rate unfavourable to women, the reversal of this trend since the 1980s has brought Spain closer to the majority of its neighbours.     

Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960: A Cohort Analysis

In this paper we present a demographic analysisof the marital and fertility careers of Russianwomen, born between 1900 and 1960 and based onindividual retrospective life histories,collected in the most recent (five percent)microcensus of the Russian Federation from1994. It extends an earlier analysis of womenborn between 1910 and 1935. Although politicalevents often had profound effects on themarital life course, none of the observedcrises in Russia has succeeded in exerting adecisive influence on the fertility transition.The fertility decline started late, but takinginto account infant and child mortality thatcontinued to be very high until the fifties,all generations born since 1920 had a completedfertility near or below replacementlevel.     

The family histories of australian women

This paper exploits retrospective life-history data to examine changing age-specific patterns of co-residence of Australian women between the ages of 20 and 59 years at interview in 1986. Overlaying histories of leaving home, marital unions and childbearing, we identify cohort changes in the time spent before leaving the parental home, in transition between leaving home and forming a conjugal union, in times spent in union and times spent with children. Our analyses show that, despite massive recent declines in fertility and nuptiality, and a greater diversity in living arrangements, the nuclear family of couple and children remains the most common household unit and is unlikely to lose its pre-eminence in the near future.Cet article utilise des données biographiques rétrospectives, pour examiner les changements dans les conduites résidentielles de femmes australiennes selon l'âge. Ces femmes interviewées en 1986 avaient entre 20 et 59 ans. Recoupant les biographies migratoires et familiales, nous identifions des changements selon les cohortes dans la durée passée chez les parents, dans la transition entre la décohabitation et la formation d'une union conjugale, dans les durées passées en union et les durées passées avec les enfants. Nos analyses montrent que la famille nucléaire avec un couple et des enfants reste le type de ménage le plus répandu qui a peu de chances de perdre sa prééminence dans le proche avenir, cela en dépit de la récente et importante baisse de la fécondite et de la nuptialité.     

Voluntary Associations and Net Fertility During the Swedish Demographic Transition

This study investigates the role of changing social relations for fertility decline during the European fertility transition. The growth of voluntary associations at the end of the nineteenth century entailed a radical shift in the landscape of social relations in Sweden. By combining micro-census data from 1890 to 1900 with local-level membership data for three voluntary association groups, this article assesses the effect of parish-level voluntary association size on net fertility in Sweden using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. The results show that the adoption of fertility limitation during the transition period was associated with the creation and diffusion of the idea of respectability within large social network organisations, an idea that has previously been shown to be connected to fertility limitation. Furthermore, by applying a social network perspective, the results show that the strength of the effect was dependent on the structure of the social networks in terms of size, density, and homogeneity. Voluntary association size had the strongest effect for the free churches, which created dense heterogeneous networks through systems of social control, while the size of the temperance association showed no effect on fertility because the connections between nodes were sparse.     

The fall of marital fertility in nineteenth-century France: Exemplar or exception? (Part II)

The first part of this two-part article, concentrating on the fall of fertility at national level, was published in the preceding issue of this journal. Here in Part II, regional data are used to test the homogeneity of French demographic history in the nineteenth century. Was the tendency of changes in fertility, mortality and nuptiality to offset one another and keep the intrinsic growth rate close to zero, visible in national data, also found regionally and departmentally? Where there are exceptions what light do they throw on the ‘model’ described in Part I? Having reviewed regional patterns, it is then possible to return to more general issues of interpretation and to review the gradual disappearance of the distinctiveness of France in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.     

Social and Economic Determinants of Reproductive Behavior Before the Fertility Decline. The Case of Six Italian Communities During the Nineteenth Century

In recent decades, main demographic historical research assessed the importance of bio-demographic components in human reproduction, before the diffusion of birth control and contraceptive techniques. According to this dominant view, before fertility decline, marital fertility was mainly regulated by biological and physiological factors and socio-economic factors played only a limited and indirect role. In order to demonstrate the importance of non-biological components, the present study focuses on six pre-transitional communities situated in different geographic areas of Italy. The work aims to demonstrate how fertility levels could significantly be affected by social and economic factors even in natural fertility populations, before the diffusion of contraceptives. Micro-level data are collected from several historical sources, and discrete-time event history models are applied to female reproductive careers in order to estimate effects of socio-economic status, household structure, and price fluctuations on marital fertility, controlling for several bio-demographic factors. Despite clear differences in geographic localization and environment, marital reproductive behavior appeared to be significantly and constantly affected by socio-economic status, household composition, and price levels in all the investigated communities.     

The historical decline of fertility in Eastern Europe

I test the hypothesis that the growth of autonomy was the factor responsible for the decline of marital fertility in eight Eastern European countries. By growth of autonomy I mean increased control over one's political, personal, religious, economic and reproductive life. This increased control was manifested in revolutions, democratic political reforms, nationalist movements and declining marital fertility. The political reforms were the result of the growth of autonomy but they also accelerated the dissemination of these new ideas among the populace contributing to further growth of autonomy. My hypothesis is generally supported by the historical data.     

Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.     

Deliberate Birth Spacing in Nineteenth Century Northern Sweden

Fertility in nineteenth century Europe before the fertility transition has been described as high, unregulated, and stable; the extent of fertility control remains a controversial topic. The aim of this study is to determine whether there is evidence of deliberate birth spacing in northern Sweden prior to the onset of the fertility transition. This study analyses micro-level parish records of 9,636 women in nineteenth century northern Sweden??a remote but, at the time, economically dynamic frontier region of Sweden. Event history analysis reveals evidence of birth spacing that suggests some conscious birth control. Piecewise exponential models of the transition from second to third birth reveal circumstances in which parents increased or decreased the time to next birth. The results on the survival of previous children, geographic context, sex of previous children, and variations in grain prices all indicate that parents deliberately manipulated the spacing between births.     

世界人口负增长的趋势展望与影响应对

根据人口转变理论,后人口转变时期的人口负增长是超低生育率作用下人口再生产的特殊类型,是在无迁移人口条件下死亡人口超过出生人口,人口总量和增速、年龄结构和分布结构等快速变迁的现象。华盛顿大学2020年人口预测数据首次勾勒出21世纪世界人口负增长的基本趋势,对比联合国2019年人口预测数据,发现世界人口负增长在21世纪开启的作用机制在于低生育率水平预期。进一步展望世界人口负增长趋势,不难发现人口年龄结构加速老化、区域和国别人口发展不均衡、人口与经济发展关系差异化等特征与人口负增长伴随;通过减少劳动力资源、挤压技术进步空间、增加社会保障压力等方式与人口老龄化相伴生,在后人口转变阶段与低生育率陷阱相叠加,以及通过总体和个体视角与资源、环境相互作用。在适应人口发展规律的基础上,亟待从缓解老龄社会问题、分类实施家庭计划政策、推动可持续发展等视角积极应对人口负增长影响。     

Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

The dynamics of fertility amongst Palestinians in Israel from 1980 to 2000

A dynamic stalled fertility transition is the best way to describe the recent fertility experience of Muslim Palestinians in Israel. It is generally assumed that once fertility levels fall by 10%, transition is well underway. Muslims in Israel experienced rapid fertility decline from TFR levels near 9 in the 1960s to about 4.5 in the early 1980s, but period TFRs have remained essentially constant since then. This article uses multilevel statistical models and census data to examine the changing determinants of fertility amongst Muslim Palestinians in Israel during the stage when aggregate fertility levels approached stagnation. The results show that as educational levels increased among Israeli Muslim women, the strength and nature of the relationship between education and fertility has changed at both the individual and community levels. We also explore other potential determinants of fertility such as minority status and cultural affiliation—exciting new directions for explaining the stagnation of aggregate fertility levels.     

Evidence of fertility regulation among rural French villagers, 1749–1789

The statistical results obtained in this second part form a strong case against the ‘natural fertility’ characterization of the demographic regime that prevailed in rural France immediately before the Revolution of 1789. There are clear indications that marital fertility was being regulated in congruence with the differential valuations placed upon children, according to their gender and age. A complex pattern is found in the non-biological responses of couples' fertility to both non-familial and familial experience of infant deaths, which take the form of ‘hoarding’ and ‘replacement effects’, respectively. Evidence is present bearing upon the suspected endogeneity of infant deaths, and its relationship to the adoption of preventive methods of limiting family size.     

The Delayed Fertility Transition in North-East Italy

The transitional decline of fertility in Italy has never been studied using micro-data, with the exception of small areas. For the first time, we use individual retrospective fertility data collected for all the ever married women living in 20 % of households subjected to census in 1971 in the Veneto region (North-East Italy), a ‘late-comer’ area in the context of Western European fertility decline (TFR = 5.0 in 1871 and 1921, 2.5 in 1951 and 1971). In order to consider broad explanations of fertility decline, we combine individual retrospective data with other information available at two territorial levels (58 districts and 582 municipalities), using a three-level clustered regression model (district, municipality, woman). The main results are: (1) even if the (few) women with 8 + years of schooling born in the last decades of the nineteenth century already had a TFR around two, this value is not seen among women with low levels of education until those born 50 years later; (2) the link between fertility and secularization strengthens cohort after cohort, whereas the connections between fertility and industrialization and fertility and urbanization weaken; (3) throughout the period, the statistical inverse relationship between education and fertility is strong, both at the territorial and individual level.     

加拿大法裔少数民族心理形成的阶段性特征——以魁北克分离主义为视角

加拿大法裔少数民族心理是在十八世纪中期至十九世纪中期加拿大的历史演进、政治变革和社会变迁中形成的,它具有被异族征服的屈辱和对其统治的敌对、文化生存的焦虑、社会经济地位导致的自卑和弱势的敏感等特征。20世纪60年代得到矫枉过正的自我修复,进入90年代,法裔民族心态渐趋平和,但是少数心理仍十分敏感,弱势心理定势没有得到克服。这种心理成为魁北克分离主义至今不息的心理基础。