Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

Assessing the World Bank Report Keeping the Promise

A new report of the World Bank released in 2004 evaluates the performance of structural pension reforms in several Latin American countries, ratifying some fundamental issues of the Bank's previous report of 1994 but contesting others, acknowledging serious problems and recommending new policies. In the light of available data from ten countries with structural reforms in the region, as well as the author's own research, this article discusses nine key elements of the new report: coverage, compliance, competition among administrators, managerial costs, capital accumulation, effects on capital and financial markets, fiscal costs, general and gender equity, and isolation from politics.     

The 2022 Greek pension reform: The rebirth of carve-out privatization in Eastern Europe

After a decade of unprecedented austerity, Greece abruptly changed the course of pension consolidation in 2022 and implemented the controversial carve-out pension funding approach, whereby a portion of existing pay-as-you-go (PAYG) contributions are diverted to fund individual pension savings, thus undermining the financing of existing PAYG pensions. Although inspired by the World Bank’s 1994 pension privatization blueprint, the Greek 2022 reform features a major policy shift by entrusting the management of individual pension savings to a dedicated government body, ostensibly to try to remedy inherent market failures in private pension provision. Like earlier reforms in Eastern Europe, the multi-decade transition costs of carve-out funding have been vastly underestimated in Greece, which will give rise to fiscal distress in the coming years when annual transition costs become sizeable and favourable international financing terms start to change. Unless firm political commitment is established to implement the measures necessary to finance the transition costs, Greece may have to resort to reform reversals similar to those already implemented across Eastern Europe.     

Pensions in Nigeria: The performance of the new system of personal accounts

In 2004, Nigeria copied the 1981 Chilean pension reform and established a funded system based upon personal accounts. The new system was neither appropriate for a country such as Nigeria, nor did it meet aspirations of improving pension coverage or helping economic growth. The current financial and economic crisis hit the scheme in so far as it hit stock values. However, more important has been the negative real interest rates that can be earned on government bonds and on bank deposits — where the majority of contributions are invested. Bank scandals and rising fiscal deficits do not breed confidence in the system or the government's ability to deliver meaningful benefits in old age.     

From reform to crisis: Argentina's pension system

Argentina underwent economic and social collapse in December 2001. The crisis brought the worst socioeconomic indicators in its history, and the pension system was not immune from this disaster, which was unparalleled in any middle-income developing country. In 1994 the pension system had been restructured, and was regarded as a viable model for other reforms elsewhere. This article discusses in general terms the features of the current pension scheme, the structural problems that were not resolved in the reform of 1994, the relation between that reform and the government's financial crisis, and the impact of the economic collapse on the pension system. Finally, it discusses some aspects of the challenges faced in building a system that is financially viable and has the potential to close the major gaps in coverage affecting both the working population and older persons.     

Pension Reform and International Organizations: From Conflict to Convergence

Analysis of pension schemes and recommendations for their reform have been one of the main items on the agenda of international organizations in recent years. However, the ideas and recommendations of the various organizationsinvolved in pension policy sometimes vary considerably. This paper will explore and compare the ideas on pension policy held by the International Labour Office, the International Social Security Association, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Although, initially, the discussion of pension reform was characterized by fierce debate with a marked ideological bent, all the participants are now aiming at mutual understanding and, in particular, coordination and cooperation in member States and recipient countries. The previous, dogmatic approach has given way to a predominantly pragmatic position.     

Reforming pensions: Principles, analytical errors and policy directions

This article, sets out a series of principles for pension design rooted in economic theory: pension systems have multiple objectives, analysis should consider the pension system as a whole, analysis should be framed in a second-best context, different systems share risks differently, and systems have different effects by generation and by gender. That discussion is reinforced by identification of a series of widespread analytical errors — errors that appear in World Bank work, but by no means only in World Bank work: tunnel vision, improper use of first-best analysis, improper use of steady-state analysis, incomplete analysis of implicit pension debt, incomplete analysis of the impact of funding (including excessive focus on financial flows, failure to consider how funding is generated, and improper focus on the type of asset in trust funds), and ignoring distributional effects. The second part of the article considers implications for policy: there is no single best pension design, earlier retirement does little or nothing to reduce unemployment, unsustainable pension promises need to be addressed directly, a move from pay-as-you-go towards funding in a mandatory system may or may not be welfare improving, and implementation matters — policy design that exceeds a country's capacity to implement it is bad policy design. We illustrate the ranges of designs of pension systems that fit the fiscal and institutional capacity constraints typical at different levels of economic development. The potential gains from simplicity imply that a country capable of implementing an administratively demanding plan does not necessarily gain from doing so. New Zealand has a simple pension system through choice, not constraint.     

Pension reform in Sweden

Pension reform has been placed on the political agenda in many countries. The Swedish parliament has decided to make significant changes in the pension system. This article presents the Swedish pension reform, which goes further than the changes in other European countries. According to the Swedish pension reform, there will be a guaranteed pension that redistributes life-cycle incomes from rich to poor and an income-related actuarial pension without any intra- and intergenerational redistributive effects (with a few exceptions). The idea is to have an actuarial contribution-defined pension within a pay-as-you-go system.     

Pension reform in the Baltic States: Convergence with “Europe” or with “the world”?

Abstract The Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – join the European Union in 2004. This paper examines pension reform in the three countries over the past decade in the light of the “European social model” and the “World Bank model”. Part one seeks to define these two models. It shows how the former emphasizes income adequacy and solidarity while the latter stresses fiscal sustainability, savings and economic growth. Part two looks at reforms made and proposed. Initial reforms involved raising the retirement age and relating benefits more closely to earnings and service. This resulted in the establishment of pension systems similar to those in many European countries. Subsequent reforms involved attempts to shift from a publicly financed, purely “pay‐as‐you‐go” system to one based upon “funding” and private, individual accounts. Such systems have been promoted by the World Bank. The appropriateness of this approach – its high transition costs, potentially high administration costs, and longer‐term implications for the relative income status of retired people – is questioned. Part three draws conclusions. In the short and medium term, policymaker should safeguard income adequacy rather than seek the doubtful advantages of funding – in other words, look more to “Europe” than to “the world”.     

Pension Reforms in Europe and Life-course Politics

In recent years, somewhat drastic pension reforms have taken place in all European countries. The pension systems developed in the last century are no longer considered to be suited to the changing demographic constellations in European countries, and the financial sustainability of these systems is under threat. Moreover, the changing political and economic set‐up in European countries is also used to justify reforming the different pension systems. Different reasons can be given to explain the various pension reform measures without, however, there being any integrated coherence. We suggest that a politics of social policy, and of pension policy in particular, based on a life‐course perspective, facilitates the understanding of the whole range of pension reform measures. In the past, the elaborated pension systems were attuned to a normative standard biography. A new standard biography, with different phases and more transitions and combinations, enables one to understand the variety of the ongoing pension reform measures. Such a life‐course perspective integrates sequences of learning, working and caring considered necessary for the polity. In other words, it is based on a conception of human potential, and it integrates, to some extent, the previously separate domains of labour market policy, education policy, care policy and pension policy. However, recent theoretical and empirical studies of the life course lead to a critical evaluation of the new standard biography, with the conclusion that the new standard is one‐sided and scientifically unsound, entailing challenges for social policy.     

Actuarial Forecasts for The New National Pension Scheme in The Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic introduced a systemic reform of the national pension scheme as from 1 June 2003, replacing the imperfect state‐run defined benefit scheme with a substitutive scheme that is privately run. The new scheme came into being on the eve of a severe economic crisis and investment restrictions on Central Bank issues led to a negative real yield of 22 per cent in its first year of operation, although a return to a positive cumulative yield was forecast for the second half of 2005. The new scheme has been unable to increase overall coverage, requires structural and operational adjustments and has not yet credited the value of capitalized recognition bonds to individual accounts. It is thus essential to allow the thousands of older members who were transferred to the funded scheme and whose pensions will be far below what they would have been under the pay‐as‐you‐go scheme to rejoin the latter if they wish to do so, as well as to take steps to improve the transparency of the annuities market and eligibility for disability and survivors' pensions.     

"Risk" and UK Pension Reform

“Risk” is a word that has become common currency in the financial services industry in general, and in the pensions industry in particular. This article critically examines its use in the context of the current debate about UK pension reform. “Risk” is used by a broad spectrum of interests to discuss a wide range of pension issues in a variety of contexts. The article outlines key theoretical perspectives on the nature and construction, or conceptualization, of risk. Their relevance to debate and policy initiatives, particularly public pension policy, is examined. It is suggested that current government policy is failing to carry with it those to whom the policy applies; that reforms implicitly, if not explicitly, underestimate the importance of “security”; and that failure to conduct a much broader debate about the fundamental notions of work, retirement, saving and security may simply condemn the UK to interminable pension reform.     

Changing the Financing of the Lithuanian Pensions System

After the first pension reform in Lithuania, in 1995, the reforming process must continue. Important changes are needed, based on principles of old age security financing. A three-tier system has been drafted and approved by the government as a Concept of the reform. The main change proposed as a first tier is the introduction of a national pension based on the residence principle, instead of the existing basic pension based on the insurance principle. It is expected that in this way the problem will be solved of providing protection against poverty for the increasing number of people who do not have the necessary insurance record. The second tier should be a compulsory funded system based on privately managed pension funds. Several important goals would thus be achieved: diversifying the old age security risk between pay-as-you-go and funded schemes; boosting investment opportunities and encouraging financial markets to develop; offering improved incentives for the working population to contribute; and so on. The main obstacle to the introduction of the second tier is the high transition cost. The third tier would comprise voluntary pension funds: their activities should be liberated and the severe constraints on investment return removed.     

Extending pension coverage in Cambodia: The governance and investment challenges of the Social Security Investment Fund

Rapid economic growth, declining fertility and changes in family structures have encouraged the Kingdom of Cambodia to reform its old-age pension system. The Government of Cambodia reached an important milestone in 2019, when the Law on Social Security was promulgated. The Law includes provisions for a compulsory defined benefit pension scheme, establishing a sound framework for extending compulsory pension coverage beyond the public sector to formal private-sector workers. As a future step, the compulsory pension scheme should be extended to informal workers. To accompany the reform, the investment policy for the pension scheme’s reserve funds, including the supervisory regime and investment strategy, will be essential for the modernization of the Cambodian social security system. In this regard, Cambodia has successfully sought policy advice. However, the country should continue to seek further advice, and to act on this. Otherwise, the necessary and increasingly pressing policy ambitions of Cambodia to develop an adequate and sustainable social protection system may not be fully realized.     

Improving gender outcomes in social security retirement systems

Assessing whether retirement systems meet their varying objectives requires analysing outcomes across different categories of beneficiaries with different working, financial, demographic, and family situations. Policymakers should therefore assess systems on the distribution of outcomes rather than average outcomes. Much has been written about the gender inequalities inherent in labour markets and how these are reflected and reproduced in pension systems, and there is growing evidence that recent reforms have exacerbated these trends. Recent research has turned to the policy measures available to policymakers to forestall or reverse these trends, but this literature tends to overlook important administrative measures that have the potential to reduce inequalities in access that could improve pension outcomes for women within the current policy framework. This paper examines the main issues surrounding gender inequality in retirement outcomes; explores the implications of recent reform trends in light of the differential outcomes for women, including policy options to mitigate the negative impacts; and concludes with a review of key administrative measures, including streamlining affiliation procedures, improving information, and simplifying payment of contributions and receipt of benefits and better compliance of employers.     

Fundamental Decisions for the Reform of Pension Systems

This paper outlines the fundamental options for the design of pension systems in any country. The financing and benefits structure is described, with particular reference to distribution policy objectives. The need for thorough preparation to back up decision-making is emphasized, together with the need to take into account the many and varied interactions with other institutions and fields, particularly the long-term effects of changes and the prevailing conditions in the country concerned. Reforms often involve long-term transitional arrangements, so that different forms of pension provision should not be compared in isolation, although this is often done when comparing pay-as-you-go financing and capital funding. Moreover, a close link can be established between contributions and the subsequent pension in state pay-as-you-go schemes as well as private, funded pension provision. Finally, in the decision-making process, more attention needs to be paid to the flow of information to decision-makers, citizens and the media in order to increase the acceptability of reform measures.     

The Reform of Mutual Aid Associations in Japan: Civil Service Employee Pension Reform in 2012

Civil service employee pension reform began by removing non‐clerical work from the main body of the Mutual Aid Association (MAA) pension system. Further changes were based on administrative reform and pension jealousy. In particular, the Nakasone cabinet's administrative reform privatized the non‐clerical sector. Before the 1979 reform, the pensionable age was 55 for the MAA and 60 for the Employee Pension Insurance (EPI) scheme. The MAA pension benefit formula adopted the final salary system, which was larger than the average lifetime salary calculation used for EPI benefits. The final salary system was abolished during the 1986 reform. Public employee criticism over “Amakudari” led to further civil service employee remuneration reform in 2005. In 2007, the Social Insurance Agency pension record scandal led to a change of government by 2009. The biggest reform of the MAA pension system was the abolishment of the occupational portion of the pension, a compromise between the government and unions. We project that this compromise will cost 22 trillion yen over 90 years old. After 2055, the newly established MAA pension scheme will be abolished; thus the public pension may finally be sustainable.     

Issues in pension system design

External conditions for pension system design and demographic and labour market trends are briefly considered and the latter found decisive. Basic concepts, e.g. social assistance and insurance, redistribution and actuarial fairness, are then introduced. Then it is argued that the "public PAYG versus private funded" dichotomy has attracted an unduly large share of attention in recent pension reform debates, as such institutional changes do not really address the basic problems, while quantitative aspects, the relationship between contribution and replacement rates, have been improperly neglected or shielded by the paradigmatic controversy. The next, crucial point is that traditional, employment-based, earnings-related forms of pension insurance are endangered by new trends on the labour market; hence, new solutions will have to be sought to ensure pension coverage for the entire population. A brief plea for more, relevant and comparative information on pension issues follows. The paper concludes with a concise summary and by contemplating what could and should be expected from the Second World Assembly on Ageing.     

Poverty Reduction: The Missing Piece of Pension Reform in Latin America

Employment‐based pension plans constitute the main form of pension provision in Latin America. Although recent pension reform in the region has focused on strengthening these, old‐age poverty remains high in most countries in the region, with older people over‐represented among the poor. The article argues that ensuring old‐age support for poor and vulnerable groups involves a different set of priorities and options for pension reform, namely a strong focus on tax‐financed public cash transfer programmes. Cash transfer programmes focused on poor older people are the missing piece of pension reform in the region. The article examines the experience of the handful of countries with such programmes in place, and draws the lessons for the future of social policy in the region.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.