Modeling U.S.-Japan competition in semiconductors

This paper describes an analytical framework used to analyze Japanese-American competition in the market for computer memory devices. The nature of this competition has captured the attention of policy makers in both countries, as evidenced by recent trade disputes alleging Japanese firms have benefited from unfair government subsidies, lax antitrust policies, and restrictive home market practices. In this paper, we present a methodology that may be used to estimate the impact of some of these programs on the competitive structure of the United States market for dynamic random access memory devices (DRAMs). The model incorporates the nature of the DRAM manufacturing process (in which “learning curve” benefits are tremendously important), and portrays the worldwide DRAM market as one in which (1) geographic market segmentation is prevelant, (2) a limited number of suppliers compete, and (3) the products are imperfect substitutes. This situation matches well the situation found in the Semiconductor DRAM Market. The distinctive features of this approach are the detailed modeling of the impact of learning on the cost structure of the firm, and its framework for analyzing firm behavior in an imperfect market. Using this approach, we evaluate how a variety of Japanese government programs have affected the competitive position of their industry, and present our view on the major policy implications which emerge.     

The impact of India’s food security policy on domestic and international rice market

Food security policy making in India is at crossroads. India has emerged as a leading rice exporter. The Government of India has introduced the National Food Security Act which requires 33.6 million tons of rice per year for its public food distribution system. In this study, we modeled India’s rice market and analyzed policy implications of the long-term impact of India’s food security act on domestic and international rice market. We developed a structural economic demand and supply model for India’s rice market and further added subsidy equations to trace the consequence of National Food Security Act on domestic rice consumption and on the international market. We specifically focus on three different scenarios: subsidy as price effect, subsidy as inelastic income effect, and subsidy as elastic income effect under the broader framework of National Food Security Act. We found that at the end of the projection period (2024–2025), as a result of rice subsidy program, the consumption of rice increases significantly in the case of price effect while the inelastic income effect has no or less impact on production, consumption, and export of rice. Hence, the policy implication of our study is that if the objective of the National Food Security Act is to increase consumption then it needs to be implemented as price effect.     

Modeling trade policies under alternative market structures

The paper focuses on the importance of assumptions made about market structure and firm behavior in empirical trade policy analysis. The contribution to the relevant literature is 3-fold: first the paper develops two original models which incorporate imperfectly competitive market structures in a spatial modeling framework; then it proposes a procedure to identify the degree of market power in international trading which is consistent with observed prices and traded quantities, and applies it to the banana market; finally, it assesses how analysis of the implications of recent changes in the EU import regimes for bananas (the Economic Partnership Agreements and the December 2009 WTO agreement) is affected by the assumptions made on the prevailing market structure.     

The impact of avian influenza on the Korean egg market: Who benefited?

The historical decomposition and directed acyclic graph methods are employed to estimate the effect of avian influenza in Korea on egg price transmission between the farm, wholesale, and retail levels. Our findings suggest that farm and retail egg prices are connected by the wholesale price. We also find that the farm-wholesale and the wholesale-retail margins increase during the avian influenza period. Our results imply that the retailer and wholesaler use their market power to increase their price during the food safety crisis. Therefore, the Korean government should control market power by allowing more emergency egg imports.     

黑龙江省零售业整体竞争力测评

经过20多年的改革开放,黑龙江省零售业已进入快速发展阶段。黑龙江省零售业市场结构存在着市场集中度低,产品差异性小,过度进入等诸多问题,制约了零售业的健康持续发展,严重影响了零售企业的竞争力。因此,我省应该制定相应的产业组织政策,通过提高进入壁垒,培育大型零售企业和企业集团,提高市场集中度等措施来培育黑龙江省零售业有效竞争模式,增强我省零售业的竞争力。     

Trade liberalization in textiles: Policy effects in an import-competing industry

I trace the dynamic impact of removal of textile quotas in the US on output, employment and plant closure in that industry. A dynamic theoretical model of firm-level decision-making is estimated with US Census manufacturing data and with industry-level demand-side data. Simulations performed with the estimated model provide a decomposition of the historical record into parts attributable to import competition, to technological progress, and to a secular real-wage increase. Plant closure and a fall in domestic prices are largely associated with technological progress, while downsizing, layoffs and reduction in domestic market share are associated with trade liberalization. The market-clearing domestic price of textiles is identified as a crucial channel in transmitting technology or import price shocks to layoffs and plant closure.     

The nexus between income distribution,trade policy,and monopoly power: An assessment of the tin market

The article suggests a manner in which degrees of monopoly power can be introduced into a trade policy model of the computable general equilibrium type. The distributional effects of tariffs and subsidies are compared, first under competitive conditions and then under conditions of monopoly power.The tin market, for which Malaysia can be assumed to exert monopoly power, is used as an example to show the distributional consequences of applying a competitive model in cases where a model allowing for monopoly power would have been more appropriate. The existence of monopoly power is shown to have important distributional effects. Policy modelers, dealing with distributional issues, should therefore be careful about the assumptions made about market forms.     

日本电力工业发展中政府的作用——电力统制体制前史研究

电力事业在近代日本社会的推进及其所带来的电力使用普及,被视为日本近代史上的第一次能源革命。与同时期展开的产业革命一样,电力事业是在中央政府指导和监督下推进的,同时受到国家战略政策的影响和限制。国家对电力事业的参与乃至介入,不仅出现在“战时统制经济”时期,而是贯穿于整个电力事业发展的始终。通过对电力开发和电力市场形成过程的考察,可以看出在20世纪30年代以前日本电力事业发展的“自由竞争时代”,中央政府虽未对民营电力和电力消费展开全面管制,但由于“强兵政策”与对外扩张政策的实施,仍然对电力事业的展开方式、电力消费市场的形成和走向起到了决定性作用。与此同时,在“电力统制”的构想下,政府不断强化电力行政,这也为此后战时“总体战体制”下的电力统制奠定了基础。     

An economic analysis of nanofood labeling

The paper examines the economic effects of labeling food nanotechnology products using an analytical framework of heterogeneous consumers and imperfectly competitive suppliers. Labeling results in increased costs for nanofood producers (the cost effect of the labeling policy), reduced consumer uncertainty regarding the nature of the food product (certainty effect), and can affect consumer attitudes towards nanofoods by being perceived as a warning signal (stigma effect). In this context, nanofood labeling can change the perceived quality differences between nanofoods and their conventional and organic counterparts, with such changes being more salient when the stigma effect is large, when consumers have low awareness of food nanotechnology in the absence of labeling, and/or when competition among nanofood suppliers is more intense. Despite its empirical relevance, the impact of a labeling policy on consumer preferences (and the economic ramifications of such impact) has largely been ignored by the theoretical literature on the economics of labels. Our analysis shows that it matters. Specifically, our study shows that the market and welfare effects of labeling are case-specific and dependent on consumer awareness of, and attitudes towards food nanotechnology before and after the introduction of the policy as well as the relative magnitude of the cost, certainty and stigma effects of nanofood labeling. Our analytical findings also suggest that the effects of nanofood labels on consumer welfare are asymmetric with certain groups of consumers benefiting even when labeling has a stigma effect on nanofoods.     

Vyāghranomics in space and time: Estimating habitat threats for Bengal,Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers

The wild tiger population in tropical Asia has dropped from about 100,000 to 3500 in the last century, and the need to conserve tiger habitats poses a challenge for the Global Tiger Recovery Program. This paper develops and uses a high-resolution monthly forest clearing database for 74 tiger habitat areas in ten countries to investigate habitat threats for Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers. The econometric model links forest habitat loss and forest clearing to profitability calculations that are affected by market expectations, environmental conditions and evolving patterns of settlement, among others. It uses new spatial panel estimation methods that allow for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. The econometric results emphasize the role of short-run market variables, including the exchange rate, real interest rate and prices of agricultural products in forest clearing, with considerable variation in the estimated timing for response and impact elasticities across countries. The results highlight a critical message for the conservation policy community: Changes in world agricultural-product markets and national financial policies have significant, measurable effects on tropical forest clearing, with variable time lags and degrees of responsiveness across countries. Measuring these effects and pinpointing areas at risk can provide valuable guidance for policymakers, conservation managers, and donor institutions.     

Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia

The paper aims at investigating the links between world oil price and stock sector markets in Saudi Arabia over the weekly period from January 10, 2007 until September 28, 2011. To that effect, we make use of the VAR-GARCH process developed by Ling and McAleer (2003), which has the advantage to address the issue of return and volatility spillovers among the series we consider. Globally, the empirical findings show evidence of return and volatility transmission between oil price and stock sectors. However, the spillover effects are unidirectional from oil to some sectors for returns, but bidirectional for volatility patterns with more apparent links from sectors to oil. The optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil/stock portfolio holdings are sensitive to the sectors considered, and allow a better understanding of the links between sectors and oil for investors who seek for investment opportunities and want to diversify their portfolios. The findings are of great interest and have important implications for investors, market participants and policy makers.     

Single-year and multi-year insurance policies in a competitive market

This paper examines the demand and supply of annual and multi-year insurance contracts with respect to protection against a catastrophic risk in a competitive market. Insurers who offer annual policies can cancel policies at the end of each year and change the premium in the following year. Multi-year insurance has a fixed annual price for each year and no cancellations are permitted at the end of any given year. Homeowners are identical with respect to their exposure to the hazard. Each homeowner determines whether or not to purchase an annual or multi-year contract so as to maximize her expected utility. The competitive equilibrium consists of a set of prices where homeowners who are not very risk averse decide to be uninsured. Other individuals demand either single-year or multi-year policies depending on their degree of risk aversion and the premiums charged by insurers for each type of policy.     

Policy Simulation of the Indian Silk Industry through an Econometric Model

This study aimed at understanding and quantifying the relationship between the important variables of the various subsectors of the Indian silk industry through an econometric simulation model, and using the model for forecasting as well as policy simulations. Forecasts of the endogenous variables of the system (demand, supply, and prices of mulberry cocoons, raw silk, and silk fabric) for the period 1991–92 to 2000–01 indicates that the growth in the industry will slow down in the future. Policy simulations were undertaken to assess the changes in the import price of raw silk, export price of fabrics, and regulation of the quantity of imports of raw silk on the silk industry. While imports and exports were closely linked, their impact on the silk industry was not very high. It was also revealed that the income of the consumers and mulberry acreage have significant influence on the industry.     

基于SWOT分析的广西卷烟品牌发展战略探析

在现阶段的烟草行业，企业间的竞争归根结底是品牌的竞争，只有依靠具有强劲市场竞争力的品牌，才可能在今后的竞争中不断地发展壮大。基于对广西卷烟品牌的“SWOT”分析，广西卷烟须推行大品牌发展战略，培育全国性大品牌。     

效率何处寻:对温州民营企业发展的一项考察

本文的关注点在于,改革开放以来,"温州模式"下民营企业的效率机制产生的来源是什么.关于企业的效率机制历来存在两种解释路径:来自企业内部的制度优化和由地方政府及地方市场提供的支持资源.本文考察了这两种解释路径在不同规模企业里的适用性,并提出两种解释路径不是相互竞争的关系,它们对不同规模的企业有着不一样的适用性.文章对制度化产权和家族管理模式、理性化的企业运作、源自政府的支持对企业效率的实际影响提出了一些新的思考.     

论我国粮食生产与贸易保护政策的演变趋势

对粮食生产与贸易实行特殊保护 ,是各国政府普遍实行的一种特殊政策。但是 ,以国家干预为特点的粮食保护政策 ,必然会扭曲市场运行机制 ,削弱资源优化配置功能 ,这就要求建立符合我国国情和市场经济规律要求的粮食贸易与保护政策 ,以增强我国粮食的竞争力。     

论文化产业的微观活力与竞争力

在社会主义市场经济条件下,文化产业具有经济属性和意识形态属性,承担着发展经济和建设先进文化的双重重任。产业的微观主体是企业。微观主体活力不强是影响我国文化产业竞争力的关键因素。主要表现为体制性障碍较大、经营机制不活、主导产业匮乏、企业创新能力不强和市场不健全。鉴于此,政府宏观文化产业政策的制定必须有利于微观主体活力的增强;文化企业必须在内部机制、营销策略、发展思路、技术手段等方面来增强活力,提高竞争力。     

让市场发挥作用--"十五"期间发展黑龙江省畜牧业的对策

分析表明 ,黑龙江省的畜牧业具有成本优势 ,但没有价格优势 ,究其原因主要在于流通领域中的制度障碍。针对这种情况 ,应该让市场发挥更大的作用 ,承认经纪人专业户的作用 ,建立地区集中性市场 ,逐步提高基础设施水平和完善制度建设 ,可以最终实现“十五”规划发展畜牧业的目标。     

Inflation and aggregate demand shocks

This paper derives and estimates a small general equilibrium model under the assumptions of imperfect competition and translog technology to simulate the impact of shifts in aggregate demand on prices. The simulations suggest that demand expansions are deflationary. This result challenges the common perception that the dynamic aggregate supply schedule is upward sloping.     

Trade policy and the United States labour market

The United States Government proposed a sweeping review of existing trade deals when the current Administration took office in January 2017. This paper reviews the ongoing changes, and considers the potential impact of two strands of the trade policy debate on the United States labour market. First, we consider policy decisions that may impact the location decision of multinational enterprises, especially within the context of the renegotiation of NAFTA. Second, we review the policy debate related to the steel industry, and the potential channels through which an import tariff on steel imports may impact the labour market.