The welfare state in liquidation?

This paper is about the most recent reforms of cash benefit systems and the sociopolitical debate in eight European countries. The welfare state and the social security system rank high on the political agenda. After many years of economic crisis, with increasingly widespread unemployment and changed family patterns, the welfare system that developed in most western European countries since the end of the Second World War is the focus of attention. In a world of increasing international trade, with competition from countries — in eastern Europe and Asia as well as the United States — which have not developed such comprehensive systems of social security, one of the main issues in the debate is whether western Europe can afford to maintain welfare at the existing level, or whether it is necessary to make fundamental changes. But the discussion also centres on what can be called the welfare state's own internal problems.     

中、英、德、美四国制造业环境保护分析与比较

制造业是一个国家发展和强大的基石,是经济高速增长的强大动力来源,同时也是产生环境污染的主要部门,环境污染治理是制造业实现可持续发展的重要内容。英、德、关三国针对制造业的不同特点,在环境污染治理费支出、环境相关税收以及固体废物处置等方面采取了不同的措施。中国制造业必须走环境友好型的“新型制造业”发展道路,建立环境管理体系,实施清洁生产,以环境保护取胜,实现经济与环境的“双赢”。     

The experience of the EEC Eurolink Project in modeling bilateral trade linkage equations

Following the basic philosophical approach of the LINK Project, which links various national econometric models built in different countries, the Commission of the European Communities has succeeded in linking the full-size quarterly econometric models of the four major European countries. The Eurolink Project is being extended to cover the other EEC countries as well as the United States, Canada, and Japan. The results reported in this paper are part of this larger project which attempts to link the EEC member economies in a trade and capital flows econometric model and explain the transmission of interdependent economic fluctuations from country to country. In the present study, the interconnection between the various economies is represented by bilateral trade flows only. Flows of invisibles and of financial capital are not completely studied and are not yet ready to be included in this report.The theoretical structural model with its bilateral trade supply and demand functions and the technique employed for the construction of bilateral import and export price indices are presented. Estimation results are shown and discussed with emphasis on their use for the analysis of international trade and for policy decision making.     

The economic policy mix, policy cooperation, and protectionism: Some aspects of macroeconomic interdependence among the United States, Japan, and other OECD countries

In this paper we examine the macroeconomic interdependence of Japan and the United States using the McKibbin-Sachs global (MSG) simulation model of the world economy. Our goal is to determine how shifts in macroeconomic policies in the United States or Japan affect the other country as well as the rest of the world. In particular, we examine the following three issues: (1) the likely macroeconomic ramifications for the United States, Europe, and Japan of significant budget cuts in the United States; (2) the macroeconomic implications of a protectionist tariff imposed by the United States; and (3) the scope for policy coordination among the United States, Japan, and Europe.     

The impact of de-globalization on China’s economic transformation: Evidence from manufacturing export

The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.     

Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis

A United States-Mexico agreement to form a free trade area (FTA) is analyzed using an 11-sector, three-country, computable general equilibrium model that explicity models farm programs and labor migration. The model incorporates both rural-urban migration within Mexico and international migration between Mexico and the United States. In the model, sectoral import demands are specified with a flexible functional form, an empirical improvement over earlier specifications, which use a constant elasticity of substitution function. Using the model, we identify trade-offs among bilateral trade growth, labor migration, and agricultural program expenditures under alternative FTA scenarios. Trade liberalization in agriculture greatly increases rural- urban migration within Mexico and migration from Mexico to the United States. Migration is reduced if Mexico grows relative to the United States and also if Mexico retains farm support programs. However, the more support that is provided to the Mexican agricultural sector, the smaller is bilateral trade growth. The results indicate a policy trade-off between rapidly achieving gains from trade liberalization and providing a transition period long enough to assimilate displaced labor in Mexico without undue strain.     

Targeting Democracies: Regime Type and America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

Objectives . The American trade policy instrument Section 301 authorizes the president to demand changes in foreign states' trade policies and to fortify these demands with threats of sanctions. I examine the economic and political factors that influence the selection of states as targets for Section 301 proceedings. Methods . I develop an argument connecting a state's regime type to the likelihood that it will be targeted under Section 301. Controlling for other relevant factors, democratic states are predicted to have a higher probability of being targeted. I test the hypothesis in a set of regression models on cross–sectional time series data with both targeting incidence and targeting frequency as dependent variables. Results . States with more open and competitive political systems are more likely to be targeted under Section 301. Of the included variables, only a state's regime type and the size of its trade relationship with the United States have consistently significant effects across alternative model specifications. Conclusions . Section 301 plays on the rivalry between protectionist and export–oriented interests by demanding reductions in trade barriers and backing them up with threats directed against export industries. Industries currently favored by protectionist policies have a higher chance of losing such a political contest in a political system more open to interest–group competition. The institutional form of political competition within a state affects the state's response to international pressure on trade policy.     

Impact of de-globalization on development: Comparative analysis of an emerging market (India) and a developed country (USA)

Strategists observe that the world is moving toward deglobalization thinking, and developed states have already marked their beginning. In this study, we have tried to analyze how the impact of globalization is different in the case of an emerging market country and a developed country. We have chosen India for our study because of its robust growth in manufacturing and business-friendly policy reforms. On the other hand, we have taken the case of the United States pertaining to the recent policy reforms it has undergone. We have employed the SAP-LAP approach to analyze the country's case situation. This research finds that India’s way of managing globalization has positively affected its dominant performance domains like employment rate, GDP growth, and poverty. Conversely, in the case of a developed country like the United States, globalization has adversely impacted the dominant performance areas, particularly GDP, employment generation rate, and poverty.     

Modeling U.S.-Japan competition in semiconductors

This paper describes an analytical framework used to analyze Japanese-American competition in the market for computer memory devices. The nature of this competition has captured the attention of policy makers in both countries, as evidenced by recent trade disputes alleging Japanese firms have benefited from unfair government subsidies, lax antitrust policies, and restrictive home market practices. In this paper, we present a methodology that may be used to estimate the impact of some of these programs on the competitive structure of the United States market for dynamic random access memory devices (DRAMs). The model incorporates the nature of the DRAM manufacturing process (in which “learning curve” benefits are tremendously important), and portrays the worldwide DRAM market as one in which (1) geographic market segmentation is prevelant, (2) a limited number of suppliers compete, and (3) the products are imperfect substitutes. This situation matches well the situation found in the Semiconductor DRAM Market. The distinctive features of this approach are the detailed modeling of the impact of learning on the cost structure of the firm, and its framework for analyzing firm behavior in an imperfect market. Using this approach, we evaluate how a variety of Japanese government programs have affected the competitive position of their industry, and present our view on the major policy implications which emerge.     

Paid parental leave and other supports for parents with young children: The United States in international comparison

The United States is at a crossroads in its policies for families and women. Currently, the United States provides basic support for children, fathers, and mothers in the form of unpaid parental leave, child‐related tax breaks, and limited public child care. In contrast, the other member states of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) empower families through paid parental leave and comprehensive investments in infants and children. The potential gains from strengthening these policies in the United States are enormous. Paid parental leave and subsidized child‐care help to get and keep more women in the workforce, contribute to economic growth, offer cognitive and health benefits to children, and give parents options in defining their preferred work‐life strategy. Indeed, the United States has been falling behind the rest of the OECD in many social and economic indicators by not adequately investing in children, fathers and mothers. Given the significant payoffs to these family supports, this article focuses on issues of reconciling work and care commitments for families with young children, and, in particular, on paid parental leave policies within the OECD and the United States.     

日美对外贸易政策的取向及启示

日本和美国的对外贸易政策是随着国内外经济环境的变化而不断地进行调整和完善的。一方面,对外贸易政策在总体趋势上呈现自由化;另一方面,又根据各自经济贸易发展的实际大力推行管理贸易。中国在对外贸易政策的选择上,既要将贸易自由化作为对外贸易政策的基本取向,更要适应国际贸易发展趋势,加大实施管理贸易的力度。     

Work, welfare and the attack on the welfare state: the mixing of politics and policy

This article considers the current ideological and political attack against the floor of benefits for poor families in the United States. It examines a number of punitive approaches to the treatment of families on welfare that were developed in the United States in the late 1980s and the 1990s and contends that such policies will not effectively deter the dysfunctional behavior of some of the poor. Rather these policy developments reflect an attack on current national policies of developing an income maintenance floor that seeks to economically sustain poor families, albeit often inadequately. The article contends that current welfare proposals by conservatives and social liberals are not satisfactory for dealing with the problems of the welfare poor and offers suggestions for dealing with these deficits. It also notes that criticisms of welfare state protection for the poor raised in the United States are much more categorical than those raised in Sweden.     

社会主义是经济全球化的最终归宿

尽管经济发达国家是目前经济全球化的主导力量 ,美国等西方发达国家是目前经济全球化的最大受益者 ,但是经济全球化的最终结果不可能是“资本主义化”、“美国化”。经济全球化的实质是全球经济市场化 ,参与经济全球化进程的国家是多样化的 ,社会主义国家加入这一进程的目的是利用市场经济 ,为本国经济发展奠定强大的物质基础 ,而不是就范于资本主义的经济发展模式。社会主义将是经济全球化的最终归宿。     

Who wins from an FTA induced revival of world trade?

The last decade has been characterized by a slowdown in globalization, referred to by some as "slowbalisation" and “deglobalization”. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced this impression. To overcome the deadlock in the Doha round negotiations at WTO the major players in world trade are negotiating or have already implemented several free trade agreements (FTAs) as a second-best solution. We analyze within a common framework nine mega FTAs, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the United States win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU-Japan, USA-Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The United States hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU27 cannot profit much from further globalization.     

Trade openness and manufacturing growth in Malaysia

This study investigates the long-run relationship between trade openness and manufacturing growth and further assesses the causal relationship between these variables. Contrary to some scholars belief that at national level, openness does not contribute to growth in Malaysia, our sector specific analysis suggest otherwise. In this aspect, we believe that in any attempt to establish relationship between openness and growth, the analysis should be sector specific since it is more relevant as well as assures a meaningful insight for policy makers. The results suggest that in the long-run, trade openness is positively related to manufacturing growth in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results also suggest that openness should be viewed as the long term policy initiative for the sector to benefit. Therefore, the policy direction for Malaysian manufacturing sectors should focus on long term trade openness policies. Nevertheless, to ensure sustainability, emphasis should be placed on how (which manufacturing sub-sectors) or when openness is actually important. Importantly, policy makers and scholars should understand that leveraging the benefits of openness also depend on whether the liberalized sector has the comparative advantage.     

Branded: The Economic Geographies of Streets Named in Honor of Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King,Jr.*

Objectives. We investigate the economic geographies of streets named for Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. (MLK Streets), which are an increasingly common means by which various community members across the United States are attempting to commemorate the slain civil rights leader. It is our intent to characterize these negatively “branded” spaces in order to challenge some of the common perceptions about them and inform current and future MLK Street naming debates. Methods. We statistically analyze nonresidential establishments located on streets named for King in terms of scale (as measured by annual sales and employment) and industrial classification. To our knowledge, this is the first such analysis conducted at the national level. Results. Establishments located on MLK Streets do not systematically exhibit economic marginality. Establishments located on these streets do systematically exhibit unique local functions and industrial composition. Conclusion. In the absence of empirically‐driven research, the negative stereotypes that surround MLK Streets have gone unchallenged and are proliferating. The research reported here calls into question a number of these stereotypes and should inform the public, city councils, and other local policymakers, who are increasingly being faced with contentious MLK Street naming debates.     

美国的印度洋战略

冷战期间美国印度洋战略的主要目的是应对苏联,冷战后美国成为印度洋的主导力量,开始在印度洋地区进行军事前沿部署。近年来,随着印度洋战略地位的提高,美国提出了“印度-太平洋”概念,并强化其在印度洋的战略利益：保持主导地位、保护海上交通线安全、控制战略要冲等。美国在意识形态和经济因素的驱使下,通过军事部署和制度安排在印度洋取得霸权地位,但与英国相比,美国的印度洋霸权是“弱势”霸权。     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

Impact of Providing Off-Site Economic Development Funds to Dependent Regions Surrounding the U.S. DOE's Major Nuclear Weapons Sites

Using an interregional econometric simulation model, a comparative analysis was made of the economic impacts of providing funds for environmental management, education, and infrastructure to the regions surrounding four of the United States Department of Energy's massive former nuclear weapons sites in Idaho, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Washington. Infrastructure funds were used to build sewers, water lines, roads, bridges, and maintain existing infrastructure. Education funds were invested in higher education, primary and vocational schools, books, and libraries. Environmental management funds were invested in on-site remediation. Education produced the most jobs and personal income per dollar of investment, followed by environmental management. Infrastructure, by far, produced the least impact. An important reason for these results is that the relatively small regional economies surrounding these sites are unable to supply the goods and services required for major expansions. Hence, there is considerable leakage of investments to other regions. The limitations of these models to capture feedbacks from investments is emphasized.     

Elite Interlocks in Three U.S. Sectors: Nonprofit, Corporate, and Government

This study traces elite interlocks between the economic, political, and civil sectors of the United States in the late 1990s. We assess integration and fragmentation through analyzing patterns of overlap and interaction among influential organizations and leaders in these sectors. Network analyses are conducted with UCINET 5 on the Elite Directors Database, a new data set composed of the directors/trustees for the largest organizations in the business and nonprofit sectors in addition to individuals holding positions on federal advisory committees. The complete data set contains individuals holding 3,976 seats from 100 businesses, 109 nonprofit organizations, and 98 government committees. The network structure reveals substantial linkages between organizations and elites within and across the three sectors. Major corporations and their directors are the best integrated in the intersectoral networks. In spite of the tremendous growth of the nonprofit sector, nonprofit organization linkages fail to offer compelling evidence of elite pluralism in the United States.