美国货币政策的演变轨迹研究

美国货币政策演变可分为三个时期 :战后至 80年代初是凯恩斯主义货币政策时期 ,主要采取“相机抉择”的货币政策 ;80年代是新自由主义货币政策时期 ,主要采取控制货币供应量的货币政策来抑制通货膨胀 ;90年代是凯恩斯主义和新自由主义货币政策的“折中”时期 ,主要是采用灵活微调的货币政策来调控经济运行。     

基于政策网络理论的PM2．5政策制定研究

从政策网络结构、政策网络特征、政策网络成员三个方面对我国PM2．5政策网络中政策的制定进行分析。目前,我国PM2．5政策网络结构由政策社群、府际网络、生产者网络、专业网络和议题网络五个部分组成,但存在中心度不同、参与度有差别和互动程度不高等问题,因此,需要通过对PM2．5政策网络主体进行分析,找到有效解决中心度、参与度和互动度等问题的途径,以便有效制定PM2．5的政策。     

Social Security in South Korea and Singapore: Explaining the Differences

The paper sets out statutory social security arrangements in Korea and Singapore and then explains the differences between them. It finds that while Korea has a relatively advanced social security system based primarily on social insurance, Singapore has a patchwork of programmes based on forced saving, tax allowance, public assistance, and public insurance schemes run along commercial lines. Moreover, the increasing share of government expenditure devoted to social security in Korea stands in sharp contrast to the declining share in Singapore. The paper accounts for the variations in terms of the different economic objectives of the two states and the different international and societal constraints they face. In contrast to South Korea * * Republic of Korea. Hereafter referred to as Korea.
which has rapidly established an elaborate set of income maintenance and health care programmes, Singapore continues to resist expansion of such programmes. The objective of this paper is to describe the social security programmes in the two countries and then explain why the supposedly similar political economies have pursued entirely different social security strategies. The paper will argue that to understand the variations, we need to examine the varying economic objectives of the two states and the different international and societal constraints they face.     

宗教与美国公共政策

美国宪法实行＂政教＂分离原则,禁止教会干预国家政务,但事实上,宗教组织在美国政治体制中如同利益集团一样运作,以各种方式参与和影响公共政策的制定,以确保自己的宗教利益。鉴于美国宗教组织在教义信仰和组织结构上呈多元化,它们对公共政策的影响方式和程度也各自相异,主要取决于历史传统、教义信条、内部团结力量、外部反对力量、战略地位和时代精神等因素。     

Electoral Politics, Ideology and American Social Policy

This article addresses the politics of social policy in the context of the 2004 American presidential election. It examines the divisions in American society and their distinctive agendas. It also explores the record of the Bush administration on key social policy issues and shows how it relates to the broader conservative tradition as well as to the Clinton administration's reform of welfare. Finally, it examines the election results. The article argues that the Bush administration has a distinctive agenda on social policy issues and that its approach is likely to reduce further the role of the social government in the provision of social policy, by emphasizing market forces and philanthropy as well as cutting taxes. It also notes, however, that the Bush administration has taken a strong stance on traditional moral values and that its opposition to abortion and homosexuality is an important part of its political strategy.     

Managing staged policy implementation: Balancing short-term needs and long-term goals

This study focuses on the agency of governments engaged in implementation processes that take place over a number of years and through multiple stages. The long timeframes associated with staged implementation leave reforms vulnerable to the institutional effects that may ultimately derail policy aspirations. Governments engaged in staged implementation need to be able to plan longitudinally (foresight capacity) and analyse whether implementation processes are creating endogenous sources of institutional change and the likely impact of such change (reflective capacity). In this paper, we argue that being able to exercise foresight capacity and reflective capacity is necessary but not sufficient, if long-term policy goals are to be realised. Governments must also be able to navigate the inconsistent objectives that arise across the different stages of an implementation process by modifying implementation approaches in ways that reduce the likelihood of unwanted implementation effects occurring—what we have labelled “mitigation capacity.”     

美国族群问题及其破解对策

美国是一个多族群的国家,族群之间的矛盾和斗争充斥着整个美国历史发展过程。"二战"之后,特别是20世纪80年代以来,由于白人至上主义和极右思潮的抬头,美国族群关系更趋于紧张。然而,在前苏联、南斯拉夫这些多族群国家解体的后冷战时代,美国却能够保持相对稳定的族群关系。这主要得益于其不断完善的法律制度、多元与一体的相对平衡,以及不断改进的社会保障制度等因素。由于美国族群政策是建立在资本主义私有制基础之上的,具有不可避免的局限性,因而对美国的族群政策应重于研究、分析,慎于借鉴。     

Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area

This paper analyzes monetary policy in a stylized New-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) optimal monetary policy under commitment or discretion versus ad-hoc monetary policy based on simple rules, (ii) the effects of fiscal policies and foreign variables on monetary policy, (iii) the effects of fiscal deficit and interest rate smoothing objectives and the role of forward-backward linkages in the model. The model is estimated for the Euro Area. Using simulations of the estimated model, it is analyzed how these aspects might affect monetary policy of the ECB and macroeconomic fluctuations in the Euro Area.     

A model of the inflationary process in six major O.E.C.D. economies: Empirical results and policy implications

In contrast to most recent empirical work on inflation which has concentrated on the size and stability of coefficients in the wage equation, this paper provides a reexamination of the price equation. Evidence is presented on the structural determinants of inflation in six large industrial nations. It is demonstrated that price equations which include capital costs and excess demand among the regressors perform exceedingly well according to the usual statistical criteria. The results of this study indicate that the inflationary process possesses a high degree of uniformity among the larger industrial countries. This pertains not only with respect to the specific independent variables in price equations, but also with respect to the high degree of uniformity of the estimated coefficients. Additionally, the findings indicate that lower productivity growth and higher capital costs have contributed significantly to the inflationary process since 1974. Furthermore, since higher capital costs are one consequence of tighter monetary policies, the adoption of such policies in response to the two oil price shocks of the 1970s may have offset their intended deflationary effects on prices through the linkage of wage costs and aggregate demand.     

讨论、辩论与协商民主：国际气候政策制定中的工具选择

从逻辑理性和协商民主的双重角度看,讨论与辩论具有不同的政策工具意义,在特定的情形下,政策辩论往往成为更自然、更方便的选择。20年来,国际气候政策制定过程具有突出的政策辩论特征,从民主理论、逻辑与现实性角度来看,政策辩论应该成为国际气候政策制定的重要工具选择,改善国际气候政策辩论制度势在必行。从当前实践需要看,政策讨论与政策辩论在促进公正而有效的国际气候政策制定,构建全球政治文明的经典样本与范例,提供政策制定过程辩论工具选择的例证与经验等方面具有重要的意义。     

Comparing policy advisory systems beyond the OECD: models,dynamics and the second-generation research agenda

ABSTRACT

The concept of “policy advisory systems” was introduced by Halligan in 1995 as a way to characterize and analyze the multiple sources of policy advice utilized by governments in policy-making processes. The concept has proved useful and has influenced thinking about both the nature of policy work in different advisory venues as well as how these systems change over time. However, to date this work has examined mainly cases of developed countries and its application to developing and transitional countries is less certain. This paper sets out existing models of policy advisory systems based on Halligan’s original thinking on the subject and assesses the findings of many existing studies into OECD countries that advisory systems have been changing as a result of the dual effects of increased use of external consultants and others sources of advice – “externalization” – and the increased use of partisan advice inside government itself – “politicization”. Determining whether or not such changes have also characterized the situations found in developing and transitional countries and at the international-domestic and state-sub-state levels is the subject of the papers in this Special Issue.     

When Everyone Is an Orphan: Against Adopting a U.S.-Styled Orphan Drug Policy in Canada

Putting aside whether diseases that affect only small numbers of people (“rare diseases”) should be prioritized over diseases that are otherwise orphaned, in this article I argue that a new approach to rare, orphan diseases is needed. The current model, first signaled by the United States' Orphan Drug Act and subsequently emulated by several other jurisdictions, relies on a set of open-ended criteria and market-based incentives in order to define and encourage drug therapies for rare, orphan diseases. Given a) the biopharmaceutical industries' growing interest in orphan diseases, b) progress in the sphere of personalized medicines enabling more and more common diseases to be reclassified as rare, and c) empirical evidence suggesting that the most orphan drugs target only a limited, lucrative subset of rare diseases, I argue that Canada, which recently announced plans to develop its own “orphan drug framework” should not follow the United States' orphan drug model.     

‘It's complicated.’ Exploring the meaning of sibling relationships of youth in foster care

Youth in foster care may be separated from their sibling(s) for a myriad of reasons. Although empirical attention to sibling relationships has grown, an examination of what sibling(s) mean to children currently in foster care has not occurred. This study used open‐ended survey responses of campers who attended Camp To Belong, a summer camp that reunites children who are separated from their sibling because of their placement in foster care. Six different member camps across the United States of America administered camper surveys. Thematic analysis was used to examine 178 responses from campers. Five major themes were identified of what siblings mean to youth in foster care: bond, dependable, fulfillment, despair and impact of separation. Youth shared the positive and protective influence their sibling(s) have in their life as well as the challenges that are associated with being separated from their sibling while in foster care. Implications of the results of the study are provided for clinicians, foster parents, researchers and sibling policy.     

Holy Grail or inflated expectations? The success and failure of integrated policy strategies

Governments and international organizations increasingly pursue the development of integrated policy strategies to govern persistent societal problems that crosscut the boundaries of traditional jurisdictions. In spite of the rising popularity of such integrated strategies, little is known about their effects. Although it is generally assumed that integrated strategies result in better outcomes, the evidence base to support this claim is sparse. This is not to say that no attempts to study the relationship between integrated strategies and policy outcomes have been undertaken at all; this paper presents a research synthesis of the fragmented evidence base. Eligible studies are interpreted and discussed by using a heuristic that distinguishes between programmatic and political success and failure. Apart from synthesizing the impacts that integrated strategies have had, the paper reflects on associated explanatory conditions and methodological approaches that have been used. The review almost exclusively finds reports of failure and constraining conditions. At the same time, methodological approaches are found to be largely unconvincing and considerable research gaps remain. The paper, therefore, ends with a nuanced answer to the question of whether integrated strategies are worth pursuing and sets out various avenues for further research.     

Perpetuating the problem: neoliberalism,commonwealth public policy and housing affordability in Australia

This paper argues that the scale of the contemporary housing affordability crisis in Australia is at least partly attributable to the influence of neoliberal ideas over the past three decades. After providing an overview of the nature and scope of the crisis, the process by which housing as a policy problem has been reconceptualised by policy makers and others since the 1970s is examined. This is followed by analysis of the ways in which a number of commonwealth government policies which are ideationally underpinned by neoliberalism have amplified and perpetuated the problem of housing affordability in Australia and, ipso facto, prevented the issue from being addressed. The paper concludes by suggesting that policies which are ostensibly intended to improve housing affordability will continue to founder until the ideational obstacles which are the focus of this paper are recognised, and housing policy is reconceptualised along lines more conducive to the amelioration of the housing affordability problem. The paper seeks to extend the existing literature on housing affordability by explicitly identifying the linkages between neoliberal ideas, commonwealth public policy, and the extant problem of housing affordability in Australia.     

Fluctuating capacity of policy advice in Russia: testing theory in developing country context

ABSTRACT

Theories and concepts developed and empirically tested in the context of North American and Western European countries do not always easily transfer to another political landscape. The concept of “policy advisory system” is not an exception. On the one hand, policy processes and policy styles are not unique for each country; therefore, some generalizations can be made. On the other hand, studding particularities of policy process in a specific country can enrich theories, developed for general cases. Applying existing theories to a new context also goes a long way in verification and potential falsification – the fundamental requirement for a scientific process. This article aims to contribute to the debate on the topic of policy advisory system by comparing the development of three policies in Russia, each involving policy advisors to some extent. Based on this analysis, lessons are drawn regarding the conditions under which policy advisors can impact policy changes in an environment, alternative to “western.”     

我国经济转轨进程中的宏观调控

我国经济转轨进程中政府宏观调控的实践表明,我国宏观调控已取得了比较令人满意的效果,也积累了宝贵经验。为进一步提高宏观调控主体的权威性和宏观调控政策的协调一致性,国务院应设立专门的宏观调控机构;应继续推进我国的经济转轨进程以提高市场化程度,同时要深化企业制度改革;要适时调整宏观调控目标,主要应采取财政政策与货币政策等手段来调控宏观经济运行并促其良性循环。     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.     

Driven by politics: agenda setting and policy-making in Hungary 2010–2014

Studies on media and politics generally find an effect of the media on the symbolic policy agenda. Analysing data from the Hungarian Comparative Agendas Project, we demonstrate that this effect is extremely weak in the Hungarian policy-making process. We identified those issues that received greater than average coverage in the media. However, we found that in the majority of cases governmental initiatives or decisions preceded the media coverage – that is, instead of the media agenda pulling the policy agenda, the general logic is the opposite: the media are talking about the policy initiatives of the government. The ambition of the paper is twofold. First, our findings reinforce those claims in the literature that point to the many institutional and political factors affecting the media-politics nexus. This suggests that policy-making might be very different in new(er) democracies. Second, our research analyses the policy-making side of Viktor Orbán’s governance. Changes in the polity, democratic backlash and illiberal tendencies are usually the focus concerning the political changes in Hungary since 2010, but no attention has been devoted to how this type of governance is reflected in policy-making. Our paper seeks to make a contribution also in this respect.