世界贸易组织与中国金融

金融是市场经济的中枢神经,是资本运营的核心.中国的金融体制源于计划模式,资源配置主要靠财政,不是银行.在体制转轨中,面临着艰巨的改革任务.在金融实务领域,存在着五大观念误区银行只能国家专办;国有银行只能给国有企业贷款;贷款必须提供实物硬件抵押;不是积极"寻贷",而是消极"惜贷";只是单纯放贷,不是兼顾投资.面向WTO,中国金融的发展走向是重新构筑金融体系;鼓励发展民营银行;实行国有银行的股份化改造,促进金融市场的深化;扩大金融市场的开放,尽快和国际接轨.     

Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank earnings opacity? Evidence from China

Uncertainty about economic policy (EPU) in today's interconnected world and its impact worldwide is more significant than ever before. Thus, this study examines EPU's impact on the bank's earnings opacity of the Chinese banking industry, using the two-step system GMM estimator and the time covering 2011–2018. Our finding shows a negative and statistically significant relationship between EPU and bank earnings opacity, implying that the Chinese banking sector decreases earnings opacity in times of high EPU to earn trust and show good banks’ financial image. Moreover, our finding reveals that the effect of EPU on earnings opacity relies on the banks’ financial strength. This study recommends that a policy to reduce earnings opacity should be in place and also the supervisory capability and financial regulation should be strengthened. Moreover, the regulators should be more vigilant while making economic policies during high economic uncertainties.     

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.     

Threshold effects of liquidity risk and credit risk on bank stability in the MENA region

This paper studies the relationships between both liquidity and credit risks on bank stability for a panel data set of 75 conventional banks belonging to 11 countries of the MENA region observed during the period 1999–2017. By performing a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression (PSTR) model developed by Gonzalez et al. (2005), estimation results show that the relationships between bank stability-credit risk and bank stability-liquidity risk are non-linear and characterized by the presence of two optimal thresholds which are equal to 13.16% for credit risk and 19.03% for liquidity risk. Contrary to their positive effects below these optimal thresholds, credit risk and liquidity risk become detrimental to bank stability in high regime.To ensure their stability, banks are encouraged to revise the primacy given to credit activity and diversify their activities to improve profitability. They are also recommended to strengthen their own funds and opt for appropriate restructuring to ease their small size. As for the States of the selected countries, they have to deeply reform their financial systems and develop the legal framework relating to new techniques of external management of banking risks including securitization and defeasance. Likewise, these states are fortified to ensure political stability, which is a key factor for banking and financial stability.     

Market structure,bank conduct and bank performance: Evidence from ASEAN

Whether banks in a concentrated market increase their profits through monopoly pricing is a question of prime concern for antitrust policies. We explore this question by introducing the role of bank conduct into the structure–performance relationship. We apply Two-step System GMM dynamic panel model to commercial banks in the Association of South East Asian Nations over the period of 1999–2014. The results indicate that the higher profits in concentrated banking industries are partially attributable to the anti-competitive conduct of banks. These findings are robust across alternative measures of market structure and bank conduct, and different time horizons. The implications of these findings require regulators to make sure that the consolidation policy for ASEAN is achieving its purpose – i.e. financial stability – and not allowing the banks to earn monopoly rents.     

Financial inclusion in India: An axiomatic approach

In this paper we first develop an axiomatic measure of financial inclusion. This measure is readily implementable and useful to determine policy priorities to promote financial inclusion. Next, we demonstrate that supply side data on banking services can be usefully employed to measure financial inclusion. Third, we examine the effects of major banking policies on financial inclusion across states in India during 1972–2009, using panel data econometrics techniques. We find that the social-banking policy has played crucial role to foster financial inclusion across states in India during 1977–1990. Thereafter, the move toward pro-market financial sector reform has adversely affected the pace of financial inclusion. This paper identifies geographic penetration of banks and credit availability as two policy targets to foster financial inclusion in India.     

Inflation targeting and its spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies

In this paper, we study whether adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy framework has spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies. Working with data for 64 emerging market economies, we develop financial stability and sector specific stability indices and identify the effect using dynamic panel data models in difference-in-difference framework. We find significant positive spillover effects of inflation targeting adoption on banking system resilience and external capital inflows arising from improved transparency and accountability of the central banks. Based on the results, the paper recommends to emerging market economies which are currently under inflation targeting lite regime, to adopt full-fledged inflation targeting monetary policy.     

Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking

This study conducts policy-based macro stress testing of the Indian banking sector and also assesses its resilience towards compliance with BASEL norms with the aid of an empirical macro-financial model. It uses scenario analysis and quantitative techniques to capture the impact of macroeconomic stress on the stability of the Indian banks by evaluating financial soundness indicators (credit quality, quantity and quality of capital adequacy). The scenarios are generated through policy-based shocks vis-à-vis other external shocks. The results from the estimation of the model indicate a cointegrating relationship between credit quality and key macroeconomic variables including output growth rate, interest rate, money growth rate and exchange rate. The results of the scenario analysis reveal that the Indian banking sector remains largely sound in terms of total regulatory capital adequacy ratio as per current BASEL II and even BASEL III requirement. The results also show that expansionary monetary policy impacts credit quality and capital adequacy in a positive and significant manner via its effect on the economy’s growth rate.     

Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the best practices of monetary policy implementation in the Eritrean economy. As such, the paper examines what kind of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms are relevant to the Eritrean economy. It also addresses which channels are effective and which are not and why. Vector Autoregressive modelling is employed over the study period 1996Q1–2008Q4. This paper addresses the argument that the bank lending is the sole functioning channel in low income economies. We find that interest rate and official exchange rate channels are inoperative. However, effective exchange rate and credit channels exist through the black foreign exchange market and credit issued to the government sector. The main policy implication of this study is that the Bank of Eritrea might be able to control inflation through manipulating the reserve requirement ratio.     

Efficiency of the Greek banking system in view of the EMU: a heteroscedastic stochastic frontier approach

The paper estimates empirically cost efficiency of the Greek banking system for the period 1993–1998. The beginning of the examination period coincides with the acceleration of liberalization and deregulation of the Greek financial system, in view of the country joining the EMU. The study uses a multi-input, multi-output technology and adopts a heteroscedastic frontier model instead of a commonly used homoscedastic one to measure cost efficiency in the banking system. The empirical results show that larger banks are less efficient than smaller ones. Also, it is found that economic performance, bank loans and investments are positive related to the cost efficiency of the Greek commercial banking sector.     

基于国际比较视角的我国问题银行退出路径研究

完善的市场退出机制是一个成熟、高效的金融市场应具备的特征之一。银行业建立平稳、有序的退出通道、纠错机制是完善市场的重要组成部分。相对于发达国家,我国问题银行市场退出的实践不多、经验不足。对问题银行市场退出的概念进行界定后分析了发达国家问题银行市场退出经验,我国问题银行市场退出现状及存在问题,提出了我国问题银行市场退出路径。     

中国商业银行的现状分析

国有商业银行是我国金融体系的主体,但由于长期受计划经济的影响,国有商业银行远远不能适应市场经济,特别是金融全球化发展趋势的需要。作者针对我国四大国有商业银行在机构设置、业务经营、管理手段以及金融创新等方面存在的问题,提出收缩管理半径,减员增效;实行本币与外币业务经营及管理一体化;强化商业银行市场营销;提高金融电子化水平,开展和完善网上银行业务;加强国有商业银行内部风险控制等有效对策,完善网上银行的运行机制,加强国有商业银行的竞争力。     

Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates

Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the short term using a counterfactual analysis. We build on the micro-founded climate stress test approach proposed by Faiella et al. (2022), which estimates the energy demand of Italian firms using granular data and simulates the effects of the alternative taxes on the share of financially vulnerable agents (and their debt). Credit risks stemming from the introduction of a carbon tax - during periods of low default rates - are modest for banks: on average, over a one-year horizon, the default rates of firms increase but remain below their historical averages. The effect is heterogeneous across different sectors and rises with the tax value; however, even assuming a tax of €800 per ton of CO2, the default rates are below their historical peaks.     

Deregulation,bank efficiency and economic cooperation across China–Taiwan Strait

This study investigates whether deregulation has affected bank efficiency in the ‘cross-strait’ relationship between China and Taiwan. I measure bank efficiency across three periods – after Taiwan and China joined the World Trade Organization, the global financial crisis, and the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) – and show that Taiwanese banks were significantly more efficient than their Chinese counterparts. These results show that the ECFA platform has not improved bank efficiency and thus has failed to function effectively. This finding suggests that China and Taiwan should continue negotiating within the ECFA context to enhance cross-strait financial cooperation.     

Does Relationship Lending Still Matter in the Consumer Banking Sector? Evidence from the Automobile Loan Market*

Objective. This article examines the role of relationship lending in the automobile loan market at a community development credit union (CDCU) and at a traditional community bank. Method. Data collected from actual car loan applications are used in a probit analysis to estimate the importance of selected demographic, financial, and loan‐specific variables on the probability of loan approval at the two types of financial institutions. Results. We first show that the community bank relies on credit scoring, not relationship lending. Relationship lending is, however, a critical factor in the loan decision at the CDCU. Low‐income households with strong ties to the CDCU are likely to receive loans, despite poor credit histories. Conclusions. If consolidation, deregulation, and technology move mainstream financial institutions away from relationship lending and toward credit scoring, CDCUs will occupy an increasingly critical niche for low‐income households.     

Remittance volatility and financial sector development in sub-Saharan African countries

In this study we examine the relationship between remittances, remittance volatility and financial sector development in sub-Saharan Africa using a two-step system GMM estimator over the period 2002–2014. Separately focussing on banking sector- and stock market development, our study distinguishes between the effect of remittances and remittance volatility on financial sector depth and financial sector efficiency. The results indicate remittances act as a substitute for the formal banking system in sub-Saharan African countries. We further provide evidence that remittance volatility is detrimental to both banking sector depth and efficiency. No evidence is found that remittance volatility is related to stock market development. A policy implication from our study is that sub-Saharan African countries should have measures in place to monitor the predictability of remittances while the cost of remittance transfer needs to be investigated.     

民国时期广州银行业风险控制的三道防线

地处中国南部边陲的广州远离皇权中心而毗邻港澳、连接南洋等地,其金融历来自成一派。清末民国时期,这里聚集了众多的银行机构,诞生了中国历史上第一家国家中央银行。而在中国历史上发生过的两次银行停业倒闭高潮中的第二次却是以广东银行的停业为标志的。目前,我国对民营银行的受理已全面开闸,民间资本进入银行业的渠道和机构类型已全部开放。开办银行或成为银行股东于国人而言已是美梦成真了。而处在国民经济核心地位的银行,其经营的成败将会对一国乃至一个地区的经济稳定产生重大影响,开办银行既需要资本更需要智慧。本文通过大量鲜活的一手史料,再现了清末民国时期新型商业银行在广州设立时的艰辛、开业时的盛况、倒闭时的悲哀,进一步理清了广州银行业在排除道德风险、减少操作风险和消除信用风险中所形成的三道防线的脉络,为金融管理当局以及有志进军金融业的民营企业家提供可资借鉴的历史经验。     

论国有商业银行风险管理

国有商业银行实施股份制改革后,金融市场获得迅速发展。国内商业银行必须努力提高风险管理水平。实施规范的股份制,建立信贷风险管理系统,推行全面风险管理模式。     

中国—东盟区域银行业金融机构合作分析

中国和东盟开展银行业金融机构合作不仅是中国国家整体外交的需要,也是中国金融业可持续发展、金融业发展壮大的必然要求。目前,中国与东盟银行业金融机构合作主要表现为银行边贸结算和互设金融机构。中国应抓住中国—东盟自由贸易区建成等机遇,完善合作机制,分三个层次展开与东盟国家的银行业金融机构合作。     

扩大内需的潜力工具--个人消费信贷

经济增长的动力,最终来自于需求.西方新古典学派的消费理论为消费信贷的实践奠定了理论基础.发展个人消费信贷是启动目前国内经济的一个新思路,它在刺激内需、实现市场供求平衡、丰富银行金融业务、增强行业竞争力等诸多方面发挥着作用.个人消费信贷业务的有效开展,对于带动整个国民经济的发展具有重要的战略意义.