Agricultural policies and development: A socioeconomic investigation applied to Sri Lanka

This paper explores the interrelationship between agricultural policies and development by means of a dynamically recursive, computable general equilibrium model applied to Sri Lanka. The agricultural policies investigated include elimination of the food subsidy, land reform, and technical change in agriculture. The goals considered are the levels and growth rates of GNP and employment, the distribution of income, and the real income level of the lowest income group. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the association between policies and goals and identifies the key economic mechanisms in this association.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models

In this paper we carry out a systematic review of the evidence from CGE models regarding the effect of trade liberalisation on income inequality and poverty in developing countries. The evidence suggests quite strongly that trade liberalisation tends to reduce poverty, but is more likely to increase inequality than reduce it; however, the predicted effects are relatively small. Variation in the size and direction of effects can be explained by the choice of outcome measure, the fiscal response to liberalisation, the type of CGE model, and certain country characteristics – but not the method used to link the CGE model to the distribution of income.     

Macroeconomic impact of public debt and foreign aid in Sri Lanka

Accumulation of public debt in Sri Lanka is raised significantly since the independence. It exceeded 100% of gross domestic products (GDP) in the late 1980s and the early 2000s. Although it has been declined in the recent past and becomes 79.3% of GDP in 2016; the high level of debt in a weak fiscal position of the small economy Sri Lanka is an issue of concern. In this backdrop, this paper examines the impact of public debt and foreign aid on income, price level and interest rate in Sri Lanka for the post-reform period. It is found that public debt in general and foreign debt, in particular, depresses income and stimulates price level. Domestic debt has some impact on the price level. On the other hand, foreign aid has a deleterious effect on both the income and price level. The foreign debt and aid have raised interest rate both in the short-run and in the long-run, while no significant impact of the domestic debt on interest rate is found. Based on these findings, the paper elaborates on some long-term measures for reducing the dependence on debt and aid in Sri Lanka.     

Growth,inequality and poverty in Vietnam: How did trade liberalisation help the poor, 2002–2008

Using the Vietnamese Living Standards Surveys for 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008, we explore how provinces with differential access to trade liberalisation reforms differ in their pro-poor growth performance in Vietnam. Using both non-parametric and parametric estimation, we find strong, robust evidence of pro-poor growth in provinces with greater exposure to trade liberalisation. Using censored and uncensored regressions, the study also shows that increased wages play a critical role in this outcome. Our analysis enables identification of the core mechanisms through which the poor materialise their gains from trade-driven growth in a transition economy.     

Reforming formal social security systems in India and Sri Lanka

This paper analyses the formal social security systems of India and Sri Lanka. While many of the social, demographic, and economic indicators differ markedly between the countries, the structure of the social security systems, challenges, and reform directions are quite similar. Thus, the provident fund organizations in both countries need to modernize and benchmark their governance, operations, and investment policies. The dualism in their systems, which has resulted in relatively generous non–contributory pensions being provided to civil servants, also needs to be addressed. This dualism and the fiscal unsustainability of current civil service pension arrangements lend urgency to reforms in this area in the two countries. The prospects for voluntary tax–advantaged private sector schemes are encouraging, particularly in India. The conditions for reforms are more favourable now owing to hopeful signs of an end to longstanding conflict in Sri Lanka, and decade–long experience with financial sector reforms in India.     

Determinants of Social Expenditure in Sri Lanka

The study examines the determinants of social expenditure in Sri Lanka for the period 1970–2010. The data are from a new data set assembled by the authors. The social spending data are collected from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on education, health, and also on welfare spending. The study explains the determinants of social spending considering the demand‐side and the supply‐side driving forces and finds that inequality issues have been a major concern of social policy in Sri Lanka. Similarly, this study implies the influence of political behavior to satisfy voters as explained by the fiscal illusion theory. The globalization is not significant for social expenditure as commonly assumed in developed countries. Even the consequences of the self‐interested behavior of bureaucrats are not evident in the Sri Lankan welfare sector.     

斯里兰卡内战结束以来印度对斯政策分析

自2009年斯里兰卡内战结束以来,印度积极参与了斯里兰卡的重建与和解进程并推动两国的经济一体化。但是印度的对斯里兰卡政策并未能取得预定的效果。除了受自身实力、斯里兰卡外交独立性、泰米尔纳德邦等因素的制约外,地区战略的排他性从根本上也影响了印度对斯里兰卡政策的效果。     

Planning studies with an optimal control multisectoral dynamic economic model: The case of Sri Lanka

This article investigates the impact of different development scenarios on optimal investment strategy and economy of Sri Lanka and studies the potential of applying control theory techniques to economic planning. The multisectoral dynamic planning model is formulated as a linear quadratic tracking problem. Targets to be tracked define the development strategies: economic growth, trade deficit reduction, food self-sufficiency, and balanced growth. Besides providing insights into these strategies, empirical results show that the difficulty in setting inequality constraints and ensuring nonnegative solutions could undermine the linear tracking optimal control technique for development planning.     

Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.     

The impact of trade policies on income distribution in a planning model for Colombia

This paper develops a multisector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of trade on the distribution of income among socioeconomic groups defined both by the factors of production they own and the sector in which they work. The categorization of recipients includes landless rural labor, land owners, workers in the urban traditional sector, and workers in the organized sector and capitalists. Experiments are conducted with an application to Columbia, a primary-exporting economy. The results indicate that, for such an economy, outward-looking policies with increased primary exports are likely to be more detrimental for the distribution of income in the medium term than inward-looking ones.     

Trade liberalisation and urban–rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia

Using a rural–urban computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper examines the impacts of trade liberalisation on structural transformation and overall growth of the Ethiopian economy. The simulation experiments suggest that the impacts of trade liberalisation depend on wage-setting conditions in the urban region. With a fixed urban real wage, trade reform adversely affects overall economic growth mainly because of large contractions in the urban region. If urban nominal wage is flexible, both rural and urban regions experience expansion in GDP. An important policy implication of this analysis is that the success of trade liberalisation critically depends on the extent to which product and labour market reforms are synchronised. On the other hand, simultaneous implementations of nominal devaluation and reductions in external trade tariffs would not enhance structural transformation of the economy. However, this policy conflict does not necessarily arise if the introduction and implementation of different policy instruments of trade reforms are appropriately sequenced.     

Trade and innovation policies: Coexistence and spillovers

The debate over trade’s role in growth and inequality in recent years seems to center on the question of whether the gains from trade are worth the disruption from necessary adjustments. In particular static gains from trade for advanced economies are generally estimated to be small, while empirical evidence around growing employment and inequality challenges suggest trade’s role may be larger than previously thought, though still only one of many contributing factors. The focus on static gains though likely understates substantially the dynamic gains, as trade’s role in spurring faster economic growth, in both developed and developing countries through competitive and innovative forces. The dynamic, competition and innovation angle suggests a need for industrial policies to be revisited and examine how spillovers play out in the global economy. At the same time significant technological disruption is occurring through digital technology, big data, and machine learning/AI techniques that often require advanced capabilities and have significant competition implications. In recent COVID-19 pandemic policy responses governments have dramatically increased spending and liquidity to support stressed firms and households and encouraged many countries to consider strategic efforts to build certain domestic capabilities with the aim of reducing dependence on trade for emergency related goods and services. This paper provides insights on the specific role of innovation policies, and they differ from and are similar to traditional industrial policies, and what that might mean for future trade rules.     

Experiences of disabled people making the transition from vocational training to employment in Sri Lanka: an exploratory study

This study examines the experiences of disabled people in Sri Lanka as they make the transition out of vocational training programmes into employment. This study was carried out using purposive sampling method to select ‘good practice’ cases and semi-structured interviews with 12 disabled people. The study applied thematic analysis to the qualitative data using NVivo software. The disabled people were found to have distinctive employment experiences following vocational training such as gaining work satisfaction, earning and spending income, presenting workability, expanding social relationships, and facing challenges. This study also identified key factors related to the transition process, including skills acquired through training, job opportunities, participants’ strengths and empowerment, supportive environments, and suitable work. These findings have important implications for both policy and practice.     

Anti‐Muslim hate speech and displacement narratives: Case studies from Sri Lanka and Australia

Muslim communities have frequently been the victim of vilification and discrimination in Australia and the broader Asian region. This article discusses and compares the narratives around Muslim vilification in Australia and Sri Lanka. Despite the fact that these two nations are vastly different in size, demographics and cultural history, I will argue that there are remarkable similarities in how Muslims are subject to attack in both nations. The hate speech occasioned against Muslims in Sri Lanka and Australia is shaped by almost identical narrative structures and is cultivated in similar online environments. In both cases, anti‐Muslim animus is fuelled by a fear of displacement and perceived contamination of what nativists regard as ethnically sovereign territory. I will argue that the underlying sub‐text in both cases is owed to a repulsion to the physical presence of Muslims which can be understood in terms of Mary Douglas' concept of the moral pollutant.     

The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers’ incomes in China

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the Doha trade proposals (those of the USA, EU and G20) on agricultural production and incomes of China's farmers by region and income group. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the proposed Doha trade liberalizations on households both at the national and regional levels. According to the results of the model, the impacts of a Doha Round agreement on households differ significantly from those of China's WTO accession. China's economy would benefit from the trade liberalization associated with the Doha Round. The overall impacts, however, are relatively minor. Although farmers will benefit at the national level, the gains among farmers vary largely by income group and province. Also, the impacts on households that produce different types of crops differ.     

灾难外交与民族冲突解决的路径选择——以印尼和斯里兰卡为比较样本

本文主要讨论灾难外交对于一国国内民族冲突进程的影响。针对以往研究仅仅将灾难外交视为解决地区冲突的契机之论点,本文认为,当自然灾害达到一定严重程度,灾难外交可能成为解决冲突的关键变量。通过对2004年印度洋海啸后印尼和斯里兰卡民族冲突的经验对比研究,我们发现在其他条件相似的情况下,由于自然灾害对两国民族冲突双方力量对比影响的差异性,导致了各方解决冲突的政治意愿、谈判中的政治立场等决定冲突走势的根本性因素发生不同的变化,最终两国的民族冲突选择了不同的解决路径。     

Targeting Democracies: Regime Type and America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

Objectives . The American trade policy instrument Section 301 authorizes the president to demand changes in foreign states' trade policies and to fortify these demands with threats of sanctions. I examine the economic and political factors that influence the selection of states as targets for Section 301 proceedings. Methods . I develop an argument connecting a state's regime type to the likelihood that it will be targeted under Section 301. Controlling for other relevant factors, democratic states are predicted to have a higher probability of being targeted. I test the hypothesis in a set of regression models on cross–sectional time series data with both targeting incidence and targeting frequency as dependent variables. Results . States with more open and competitive political systems are more likely to be targeted under Section 301. Of the included variables, only a state's regime type and the size of its trade relationship with the United States have consistently significant effects across alternative model specifications. Conclusions . Section 301 plays on the rivalry between protectionist and export–oriented interests by demanding reductions in trade barriers and backing them up with threats directed against export industries. Industries currently favored by protectionist policies have a higher chance of losing such a political contest in a political system more open to interest–group competition. The institutional form of political competition within a state affects the state's response to international pressure on trade policy.     

CHANGES IN FEMALE ENTRY TO TRADE TRAINING IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

This study examines whether there were significant changes in the entry of young women to trade training in South Australia as a result of equal opportunities policies and initiatives to change the means of entry to trade training. It surveys the period 1981 to 1984 because that, like the present, was a period of change in education and training arrangements. It looks at women's hold on places in pre-vocational courses and apprenticeships in the most male-dominated trade areas and examines in detail the outcomes of the first three Introduction to Trades for Young Women courses in 1982 and 1983. It concludes that they led to only a slight improvement in female participation in trade training. The difficulties these courses faced in articulating with both student income support policies and the selection procedures for pre-vocational courses are discussed. The study demonstrates a marginal increase in the numbers of female apprentices outside hairdressing between 1981 and 1984 and evidence of weak commitment to an effective equal opportunities policy. A brief comparison is made between the situation at the beginning and end of the decade. This suggests that female participation in the most male-dominated trades areas in South Australia was generally lower than the Australian average in those areas, an outcome which must open to question the policy commitment to change.     

Public opinion towards workfare policies in Europe: Polarisation of attitudes in times of austerity?

Increasing wage inequality, strong labour market divides and welfare retrenchment are widely believed to result in more polarised public opinion towards the welfare state. The present study examined if attitudes towards workfare policies have become more polarised in Europe over recent decades. To achieve this aim, the study analysed public opinion data from the European Value Study (EVS) from 23 European countries in the years 1990–2008, using multi‐level regression analysis. It is found that individuals who are most affected by workfare – the unemployed, the poor and the young – most strongly oppose workfare concepts. Against expectations, there was no evidence of an increasing polarisation of attitudes in Europe. Attitudinal cleavages based on employment status, income and education have remained stable. Differences between age groups have even dissolved because younger cohorts increasingly favour strict workfare policies. The results suggest that warnings of increasing social conflicts and an erosion of solidarity in European societies are exaggerated.     

Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade

This study aims to revisit the effectiveness of using currency devaluation as a policy tool to improve trade balance by estimating the exchange rate elasticities of services trade between the US and rest of the world with quarterly disaggregated services trade data from 1999 to 2015. Empirical results reveal that the impacts of currency devaluation on individual services trade are mixed and largely depend on the nature of services. Using currency devaluation to raise export services trade and reduce import services trade seems to be more effective in the long-run but not in the short-run. It is interesting to note that some individual services trades are insensitive to exchange rate changes. The estimates also reveal that most categories of services trade are income elastic and economic growth plays a key role in determining the imports and exports of services trade.