Assessing social vulnerability and identifying spatial hotspots of flood risk to inform socially just flood management policy

This study presents the first nationwide spatial assessment of flood risk to identify social vulnerability and flood exposure hotspots that support policies aimed at protecting high-risk populations and geographical regions of Canada. The study used a national-scale flood hazard dataset (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal) to estimate a 1-in-100-year flood exposure of all residential properties across 5721 census tracts. Residential flood exposure data were spatially integrated with a census-based multidimensional social vulnerability index (SoVI) that included demographic, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic indicators influencing vulnerability. Using Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (BiLISA) cluster maps, the study identified geographic concentration of flood risk hotspots where high vulnerability coincided with high flood exposure. The results revealed considerable spatial variations in tract-level social vulnerability and flood exposure. Flood risk hotspots belonged to 410 census tracts, 21 census metropolitan areas, and eight provinces comprising about 1.7 million of the total population and 51% of half-a-million residential properties in Canada. Results identify populations and the geographic regions near the core and dense urban areas predominantly occupying those hotspots. Recognizing priority locations is critically important for government interventions and risk mitigation initiatives considering socio-physical aspects of vulnerability to flooding. Findings reinforce a better understanding of geographic flood-disadvantaged neighborhoods across Canada, where interventions are required to target preparedness, response, and recovery resources that foster socially just flood management strategies.     

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami‐inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders.     

Local Spatial and Temporal Factors Influencing Population and Societal Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

The identification of societal vulnerable counties and regions and the factors contributing to social vulnerability are crucial for effective disaster risk management. Significant advances have been made in the study of social vulnerability over the past two decades, but we still know little regarding China's societal vulnerability profiles, especially at the county level. This study investigates the county‐level spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in China from 1980 to 2010. Based on China's four most recent population censuses of 2,361 counties and their corresponding socioeconomic data, a social vulnerability index for each county was created using factor analysis. Exploratory spatial data analysis, including global and local autocorrelations, was applied to reveal the spatial patterns of county‐level social vulnerability. The results demonstrate that the dynamic characteristics of China's county‐level social vulnerability are notably distinct, and the dominant contributors to societal vulnerability for all of the years studied were rural character, development (urbanization), and economic status. The spatial clustering patterns of social vulnerability to natural disasters in China exhibited a gathering–scattering–gathering pattern over time. Further investigations indicate that many counties in the eastern coastal area of China are experiencing a detectable increase in social vulnerability, whereas the societal vulnerability of many counties in the western and northern areas of China has significantly decreased over the past three decades. These findings will provide policymakers with a sound scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

基于知识库的应急领域脆弱性指标体系研究

应急事件的演化和应急领域的脆弱性指标变化有着密切关系。大型运作系统核心能力受损后的应急期间,管理者非常关心如何根据动态变化的受损情况把握关键指标因素进行恢复,从而降低应急管理成本。本文基于知识库对应急领域知识结构进行分析,并将层级时序记忆方法引入应急脆弱性指标知识挖掘体系,通过脆弱性态势感知解决了指标约简问题,最后给出了构建知识库的推理机设计和推理算法。本文得到有助于应急管理的结论：基于知识库的脆弱性指标体系可动态分析突发事件和应急管理中蕴涵的知识,有助于对应急事件演化机理准确把握,提高应对效率。     

Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place-based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place-based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.     

网络视角的风险与时尚对消费者信息搜索行为影响研究

消费者决策一直是消费者行为研究的核心,信息搜索作为消费者决策的第一步受到理论和实践界的普遍关注。互联网时代,消费环境快速变化呈现出网络化特点,消费者追求时尚与个性化,产品技术复杂化增加了消费者购买的风险,这些因素使得消费行为越发嵌入于网络当中。基于此,文章从网络视角出发,以感知风险和时尚为切入点研究社会网络对消费者信息搜索行为的影响。在网络构建上,与通常直接建立网络的方法不同,作者将网络结构指标与回归分析相结合,通过对以往文献的梳理,构建了以网络规模、网络结构洞、网络凝聚子群和关系强度为指标的社会网络结构量表,采用回归的方法揭示社会网络对消费者信息搜索的作用。通过对样本消费者调查研究发现,时尚和社会网络影响消费者信息搜索行为。其中,时尚敏感度与消费者信息搜索行为之间存在正向关联。社会网络中的网络规模和关系强度会分别发挥正向和负向的调节作用,调节时尚敏感度与信息搜索行为之间的关系。该研究在一方面为今后网络角度的消费者行为研究在网络构建上提供帮助,另一方面验证了企业在进行产品设计、品牌营销时,可以借助社会网络,提高战略的针对性和有效性。     

Sales Force and Competition in Financial Product Markets: The Case of Mexico's Social Security Privatization

This paper examines how sales force impacts competition and equilibrium prices in the context of a privatized pension market. We use detailed administrative data on fund manager choices and worker characteristics at the inception of Mexico's privatized social security system, where fund managers had to set prices (management fees) at the national level, but could select sales force levels by local geographic areas. We develop and estimate a model of fund manager choice where sales force can increase or decrease customer price sensitivity. We find exposure to sales force lowered price sensitivity, leading to inelastic demand and high equilibrium fees. We simulate oft proposed policy solutions: a supply‐side policy with a competitive government player and a demand‐side policy that increases price elasticity. We find that demand‐side policies are necessary to foster competition in social safety net markets with large segments of inelastic consumers.     

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high‐intensity events, is known as “surface water flooding.” Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively.     

The effects of new dimensions of psychological job demands and job control on active learning and occupational health

Recent changes in job content may have led to changes in job demands and control, and earlier operationalizations of the demand concept may be too general (MT). The aim of this paper is to show how new dimensions of psychological job demands are related to two sets of outcome variables, employee health and active learning, and how these relationships are modified or interact with social support and types of job control. The study was carried out as a survey among employees of 13 electric companies in Norway, N=2435. Lisrel was used to assess the fit of the proposed models. Compared to the traditional demands control model, an extended version used in this study increased the explained variance on an average by 4% on various occupational health variables. It was found that various dimensions of demands were differentially related to the outcome variables. Skill discretion uniformly reduced the effect of the demands: for groups low in skill discretion there was a stronger relationship between demands and outcomes than for groups high in skill discretion. The interaction pattern for the remaining control and support variables was however more complicated and warrants further study. The practical implications are that employers should carefully consider the quality of work. Special attention should be given to the quantitative demands of the jobs, since there seems to be few moderators for the relationship between those demands and job stress and subjective health complaints.     

The effects of new dimensions of psychological job demands and job control on active learning and occupational health

Abstract

Recent changes in job content may have led to changes in job demands and control, and earlier operationalizations of the demand concept may be too general (MT). The aim of this paper is to show how new dimensions of psychological job demands are related to two sets of outcome variables, employee health and active learning, and how these relationships are modified or interact with social support and types of job control. The study was carried out as a survey among employees of 13 electric companies in Norway, N=2435. Lisrel was used to assess the fit of the proposed models. Compared to the traditional demands control model, an extended version used in this study increased the explained variance on an average by 4% on various occupational health variables. It was found that various dimensions of demands were differentially related to the outcome variables. Skill discretion uniformly reduced the effect of the demands: for groups low in skill discretion there was a stronger relationship between demands and outcomes than for groups high in skill discretion. The interaction pattern for the remaining control and support variables was however more complicated and warrants further study. The practical implications are that employers should carefully consider the quality of work. Special attention should be given to the quantitative demands of the jobs, since there seems to be few moderators for the relationship between those demands and job stress and subjective health complaints.     

The antecedents of psychic distance

This study investigates the antecedents of psychic distance. Building on original data in 25 of the world's largest economies, we investigate potential drivers of perceived psychic distances to foreign countries. The results show these perceptions to be influenced by a range of cultural, geographic, political and economic factors. Among these, absolute geographic distance accounts for the largest share of the explained variance, suggesting that physical distance should be given a more prominent role when it comes to empirically investigating international business decisions for which psychic distance perceptions may be important. The findings also suggest that, used in isolation, ‘cultural distance’ – as measured by the so called Kogut and Singh index – is a poor predictor of such perceptions.     

Toward an Epidemiology of Safety and Security Risks: An Organizational Vulnerability Assessment in International Airports

International airports are complex sociotechnical systems that have an intrinsic potential to develop safety and security disruptions. In the absence of appropriate defenses, and when the potential for disruption is neglected, organizational crises can occur and jeopardize aviation services. This investigation examines the ways in which modern international airports can be “authors of their own misfortune” by adopting practices, attitudes, and behaviors that could increase their overall level of vulnerability. A sociotechnical perspective, the macroergonomic approach, is applied in this research to detect the potential organizational determinants of vulnerability in airport operations. Qualitative data nurture the case study on international airports produced by the present research. Findings from this study highlight that systemic weaknesses frequently reside in areas at the intersection of physical, organizational, and social spaces. Specific pathways of vulnerability can be drawn across these areas, involving the following systemic layers: individual, task, tools and technology, environment, and organization. This investigation expands the existing literature on the dynamics that characterize crisis incubation in multiorganization, multistakeholder systems such as international airports and provides practical recommendations for airport managers to improve their capabilities to early detect symptoms of organizational vulnerability.     

大学生社交效能感量表的初步编制研究

本研究通过探索性因素分析抽取了大学生社交效能感量表的5个因素,分别是应对陌生人、社交信心、亲和力、社交主动、应对社交困境,再通过验证性因素分析检验,确定了量表五因素结构模型。通过信效度分析,表明量表具有较好的稳定性和有效性,达到了心理测量学的要求,可以用于大学生社交效能感状况的测量,为大学生社交效能感的进一步研究提供了研究工具。     

The impact of sense of coherence and high-demand/low-control job environment on self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators

Sense of Coherence (SOC) is a new concept belonging to a salutogenic paradigm, proposing to explain health as contrasted to disease, a pathogenic paradigm. The Job Demand-Control (JDC) model of job stress suggests that the combination of high job demands and low job control, defined as job strain, is strongly associated with adverse health consequences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between SOC and the JDC model in assessment of negative job effects within three pathogenically defined contexts: self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators, assessing the explanatory value of SOC for such variables. The study was conducted with 103 employees of social-welfare and social-insurance agencies in Sweden. A questionnaire related to job conditions, health and burnout was administered, and blood samples were collected and analysed for serum concentrations of cortisol, prolactin and immunoglobulin G. Multiple-regression models were calculated including variables from all three contexts. In the analyses, a distinction was made between emotional job strain and quantitative job strain. The SOC interacted with emotional job strain, but the interaction also increased the independent effect of emotional job strain. The independent effect of SOC disappeared in most models when interaction was included. It is concluded that studies of job strain-effects according to the JDC model should include the SOC as an interaction factor.     

Staying well or burning out at work: Work characteristics and personal resources as long-term predictors

The aim of this longitudinal study was to recogmize the work characteristics and personal resourcesthat are associated with burnout symptoms in the long term. The empirical analyses are based onsample data (n = 174) from a larger survey in 1986 and from a 10-year follow up in 1776 conducted inan international industrial foresty enterprise. The participants were drawn from those worken inFinland, the home country of the enterprise, who responded to the questionnaires at both times. Theparticipants were classified into those having no burnout and those with serious burnout. In order tocompare the groups a multivariate analysis of variance and t-tests for two independent groups wereused. Four job-related and five organizational factors, 10 work environment hazards and threeindividual variables wereused as a predictors. Change variables were formed from the predictors. Allthe significant changes in work and personal resources during 10 years had shifted to the positivedirection in the no-bumout group, and to the negative direction in the serious burnout group.Discriminant analysis was used to identify linear combinations of quantitative predictor variables thatbest characterized the differences between the groups. Both the cross-sectional and the longitudinalpredictors showed that factors related to the social processes at work seem to be crucial to burnout. Ofthe individual resources, a strong sense of coherence seems to be of particular importance.     

A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF A STATE PARK-LAKE ON LAND VALUE,FROM THE TIME OF LAND ACQUISITION TO RESERVOIR FILLING

A new multiple purpose park-lake facility is being developed in the sub urbanrural fringe of the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania metropolitan region. This study assesses the impact of the new park-lake upon surrounding land values in order to provide information for improved planning and decision making in such a context. The investigation covers the period from the time of land acquisition to that of near-completion of dam construction. The results of the study provide a “baseline” from which it will later be possible to assess changes in land values as the park-lake becomes fully operational as a major public recreational facility. Two geographic zones of impact on surrounding land value are identified by the analysis, and variations in the impact of the park-lake over time are identified. The importance of these new findings to public organizations involved in recreational decision making is discussed and areas for future research are suggested.     

Mapping Socioeconomic Exposure for Flood Risk Assessment in Italy

Detailed spatial representation of socioeconomic exposure and the related vulnerability to natural hazards has the potential to improve the quality and reliability of risk assessment outputs. We apply a spatially weighted dasymetric approach based on multiple ancillary data to downscale important socioeconomic variables and produce a grid data set for Italy that contains multilayered information about physical exposure, population, gross domestic product, and social vulnerability. We test the performances of our dasymetric approach compared to other spatial interpolation methods. Next, we combine the grid data set with flood hazard estimates to exemplify an application for the purpose of risk assessment.     

The impact of sense of coherence and high-demand/low-control job environment on self-reported health,burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators

Sense of Coherence (SOC) is a new concept belonging to a salutogenic paradigm, proposing to explain health as contrasted to disease, a pathogenic paradigm. The Job Demand-Control (JDC) model of job stress suggests that the combination of high job demands and low job control, defined as job strain, is strongly associated with adverse health consequences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between SOC and the JDC model in assessment of negative job effects within three pathogenically defined contexts: self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators, assessing the explanatory value of SOC for such variables. The study was conducted with 103 employees of social-welfare and social-insurance agencies in Sweden. A questionnaire related to job conditions, health and burnout was administered, and blood samples were collected and analysed for serum concentrations of cortisol, prolactin and immunoglobulin G. Multiple-regression models were calculated including variables from all three contexts. In the analyses, a distinction was made between emotional job strain and quantitative job strain. The SOC interacted with emotional job strain, but the interaction also increased the independent effect of emotional job strain. The independent effect of SOC disappeared in most models when interaction was included. It is concluded that studies of job strain-effects according to the JDC model should include the SOC as an interaction factor.