降价及后悔对消费者价值损害的影响实证研究

企业采用价格手段进行竞争不可避免，但降价对于已经购买了产品的顾客而言究竟造成何种影响尚缺乏深入探讨。采用实证研究方法。通过情景模拟实验讨论了产品降价现象和后悔感受对于已购买产品的顾客在价值感知上的负面影响。运用结构方程模型分析变量间的关系，研究的主要发现有：顾客购买产品后，其预期的主观降价幅度受到产品使用时间长度和顾客心理折旧等因素的影响．当市场实际降价幅度越是超过顾客的预期合理降价幅度时，顾客的价值感受将越受到显著伤害．心理折旧程度并不直接影响到顾客价值感受，而是通过预期价格降价幅度发挥作用，顾客后悔对于价值损失感受的影响具有调节效应。     

考虑战略顾客行为时的供应链性能分析与协调

动态定价策略的广泛应用使得越来越多的顾客具有了战略性,战略顾客会根据产品在销售期内的价格路径确定最优购买时机,零售商则根据顾客的购买行为确定订货数量和销售价格.研究了双方静态博弈时的理性预期均衡解和零售商进行数量承诺时的情形.研究表明:理性预期均衡时的最优销售价格、最优存货数量和最优期望利润分别小于标准报童模型的情形;数量承诺时的最优存货数量小于理性预期均衡时的最优存货数量;最优期望利润则大于理性预期均衡时的最优期望利润,并且在一定条件下可能会大于标准报童模型的最优期望利润,战略顾客行为的存在对零售商可能有利.最后分析了在分散式供应链中如何利用收入分享契约和数量折扣契约实现供应链协调.     

考虑策略性顾客的动态定价和差价返还机制

由于销售期短和残值很低,季节性产品普遍采用正常销售和季末降价结合的动态定价模式.一部分顾客会预期零售商季末降价,可能等待到季末购买以获得更大的净效用,顾客的这种策略行为减少了零售商的收益.本文假设市场中同时存在策略性和短视性顾客,分析了零售商考虑策略性顾客的动态定价,以及差价返还机制对零售商定价和收益的影响.研究表明策略性顾客延迟购买影响了零售商的定价决策并使得收益减少,而差价返还机制可以消除策略性顾客的延迟购买行为,提高零售商的收益.     

考虑退货的定价和订货优化及信息发布美化策略

考虑顾客由感知差异引起的退货行为，以及促销期与日常销售期不同的行为特点，对日常销售期和促销期顾客购买率和退货率分别进行了解析表述.在此基础上分析了确定需求下信息发布美化策略对最大利润的影响.建立了随机需求下在线零售商的期望利润模型，对定价和订货量进行联合优化.最后通过算例分析了在感知价值和感知差异服从更为一般的分布形式且存在相关性条件下，最优策略下的预期利润随信息发布美化程度的变化规律，以及相关性对信息发布美化策略有效性的影响.研究结果表明，基于感知价值和感知差异构建的购买率和退货率模型可较好解释已有实证研究结果，以此为基础对定价和库存进行联合优化更符合实际，优化条件下的最大利润随信息发布美化程度的提高先增后降，取得最大利润的信息美化值促销期大于日常销售期，且线性相关程度越高的产品取得最大利润的信息美化值越大。     

考虑消费者后悔的库存及退货策略研究

消费者预期后悔对在线零售商的决策有显著影响.在考虑消费者预期后悔、需求不确定性以及是否提供退货的情况下,构建了零售商定价和库存优化模型.研究发现,当零售商不提供退货时,消费者的保留价格、零售商的最优价格、最优订货量和期望利润均随着迟疑后悔强度的减弱或购买后悔强度的增加而减小.零售商提供全额退款提高消费者的保留价格,并使得零售商在一定条件下不受消费者预期后悔的影响.零售商是否提供全额退款受到消费者预期后悔、消费者退货成本、产品边际成本和回收残值的综合影响:当退货成本较小且预期后悔满足一定条件时,提供退货是有利的;否则,提供全额退款会降低零售商的期望利润.研究强调在制定退货决策时考虑消费者预期后悔和退货成本的重要性.     

考虑退货价格的易逝品供应链协调性研究

考虑由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的供应链,制造商以批发价格为零售商提供一种易逝品,零售商再以零售价格将产品销售给顾客;零售商以一定的退货价格回收顾客的退货产品,制造商对零售商的顾客退货产品及销售季节结束后的剩余产品进行回收,零售商的退货价格不仅对产品的需求有影响,而且对顾客的退货率也产生影响.在这样的条件下,建立了需求不确定环境下顾客退货及制造商回收的模型,结果表明,制造商简单回收顾客的退货产品和销售季节结束后的剩余产品并不能实现供应链协调,而基于回馈与惩罚策略的制造商回收策略能够实现供应链的协调.最后,给出了供应链协调下的模型优化方法,并以数值实例计算了易逝品供应链协调下的最优退货价格和最优订货量,并分析了各种参数变动对最优退货价格、最优订货量和集中式供应链最优利润的影响.     

顾客满意度、市场份额与利润率的关系——来自瑞典的发现

以瑞典国家顾客满意度调查为基础,研究了顾客满意度与利润之间的关联性和关联程度,探讨了感知质量、市场预期和价格对于顾客满意度的影响、顾客满意度对于利润的影响,以及顾客满意度与市场份额之间的关系.对上述影响变量之间的关系提出了5个假设,利用瑞典国家顾客满意度指数(SCSB),建立假设检验模型,对假设进行验证,得出相应结论.     

价格相依报童模型中信息和不确定性的研究

价格相依报童模型由一个零售商和一个供应商组成,其中,风险中性供应商销售产品给风险中性零售商,零售商确定零售价格和销售量;零售商面临不确定性需求,需求函数从顾客效用函数的微观模型推导得出,需求函数中考虑到了顾客数量,以及需求的价格敏感系数。在基于不确定性需求的价格相依报童模型下,首先,分析了需求不确定性类型如何影响供应商和零售商的决策;其次,假设供应商和零售商之间存在信息不对称情况,考虑了零售商拥有更新信息时,零售商是否愿意与供应商共享更新信息,供应商为获取更新信息应该支付的信息租金。     

基于理性预期与顾客策略行为的供应链契约比较

本文在理性预期均衡的框架下,研究面临策略型消费者时,供应链上下游企业作为一个利益共同体如何更好地进行机制设计与契约选择的问题。本文首先分析零售商与顾客之间的理性预期问题,在此基础上对供应链批发价契约和回购契约下的供应链绩效及其影响因素进行比较。本文的研究结果表明:在存在顾客策略行为的情况下,回购契约比批发价契约更加可以激励零售商提高订购量,促使零售商保持较高的售价;当消费者对产品的价值估计值越高、批发价格越低、生产成本越高时,回购契约会更加有利于零售商。并且,当顾客对产品的价值估值超过一定的阈值点时,供应链利润最大时回购契约下的最优订购量大于批发价契约下的最优订购量。但是,供应链利润最大时,回购契约与批发价契约下的供应链利润大小关系则不确定。此外,本文还讨论了同时考虑策略型消费者和消费者退货的情形。     

顾客策略行为下基于CVaR和回购契约的供应链决策模型

依据条件风险值CVaR度量准则,建立了顾客策略行为下基于回购契约的供应链决策模型,分析了集中式供应链系统和分散式供应链系统中,风险规避供应商和风险规避零售商的决策行为。在此基础上,通过理论求解和数值分析,进一步探讨了顾客策略行为、成员风险规避性和供应链回购契约的交互影响。主要研究结论如下:第一,当供应链成员均为风险规避时,价格承诺可成为顾客策略行为的完美应对策略;第二,最优回购价格受到零售商和供应商的风险规避度的共同影响,零售商的最优订货量随产品回购价格的增加而增加;第三,当且仅当零售商与供应商的风险规避度相当时,回购契约能够实现分散式供应链系统的协调和利润在不同成员间的任意分配,否则回购契约不能实现供应链利润在不同成员间的任意分配。第四,当供应链成员风险规避不等时,零售商的利润分成随顾客对产品估价的增加而增加。同时,风险规避度较小方需要出让部分利润给风险规避度较大方才能够保证契约的实施。     

考虑消费者渠道间需求异质性的BOPS服务模式下生鲜品零售定价策略

针对同时拥有线上和线下销售渠道的生鲜零售商,考虑消费者在渠道间的需求异质性,研究其采用BOPS服务模式后的定价策略。在建立线上线下同价策略模型的基础上,提出线上、线下单一渠道折扣策略以及面向BOPS顾客的折扣策略,进一步设计了联合定价策略,并利用数值实验加以验证和扩展。研究表明:线上渠道折扣与线下渠道折扣策略在有效性上互斥;配送成本适中且配送比例较高时,面向BOPS顾客的折扣策略优于其他两种折扣策略;消费者对折扣的敏感度越高,BOPS折扣策略的适用范围越广,优越性越明显;联合折扣策略可以在更大范围内提升零售商利润。     

Impact of secondary market on consumer return policies and supply chain coordination

In this paper, we develop a unified model to study the inventory management problem of a product and the coordination of the associated supply chain consisting of a single supplier and considerably many retailers in the presence of a secondary market. Specifically, consumer returns are allowed in the initial sales. Then, we introduce a secondary market to salvage the returns and the leftovers from the initial sales. In this secondary market, a discount price will be offered to the consumers but no returns are accepted. Moreover, between the primary and the secondary market, there is an internal market where retailers can trade among themselves so that they are able to adjust their inventory levels to prepare for the sales in the secondary market. We study the retailers' and the supply chain's inventory decision in this case and highlight the impact of the secondary market on the sales as well as on the supply chain coordination contracts. We conclude that the secondary market helps us to increase the total wholesale volume. Numerical examples show that the total sales profit is also increased. However, the secondary market aggravates the incentive conflict between the retailers and the supply chain on deciding the optimal inventory levels and hence requires the supplier to offer more generous buyback or sales rebate contracts for coordination of the supply chain. Finally, we extend our analysis to more general cases and also show that our results are robust to some of the modeling assumptions.     

基于消费者评论的网络预售定价策略研究

在线消费者评论成为影响消费者购买行为的重要因素。本文构建两阶段销售模型（预售期、正常销售期），通过刻画预售期消费者评论对正常销售期需求的影响，探究消费者评论如何影响商家定价策略以及商家如何利用消费者评论调节竞争。结果表明，无论在垄断或竞争市场情形下，若忠实消费者选择等待至正常销售期购买产品，商家均会采取折价预售策略，即通过降低预售期价格提升消费者评论，刺激正常销售期的产品需求。在竞争市场情形下，若普通消费者的产品偏好成本非常低且预售期购买量较小，商家的折价预售策略能通过提升消费者评论以阻止竞争者进入市场；随着普通消费者产品偏好成本增大，商家会将重心转向忠实消费者，进而缓解商家之间的竞争。     

考虑产能约束的新产品与旧产品预售策略研究

预售商品种类繁多，可分为从未上市过的新产品和已经上市过旧产品。面对不同类型的产品，根据消费者效用理论，消费者可能做出不同的决策。研究在产能约束的前提下，零售商销售不同类型产品的最优预售策略问题。结果表明，新产品的最优预售策略取决于正常销售价格，旧产品的最优预售策略受正常销售价格与消费者构成的共同影响，且前者的影响作用大于后者。较低的正常销售价格或较大的高估值消费者比例增大了消费者在正常销售期购买的缺货风险，零售商应采取溢价预售策略，否则应采取折价预售策略。此外将新产品和旧产品的最优预售策略对比发现，利用消费者对产品估值的不确定性，新产品预售比旧产品预售更具优势。     

Advance Selling by a Newsvendor Retailer

Retailers often face a newsvendor problem. Advance selling helps retailers to reduce demand uncertainty. Consumers, however, may prefer not to purchase in advance unless given a discount because they are uncertain about their valuation for the product in advance. It is then unclear whether or when advance selling to pass some uncertainty risk to consumers is optimal for the retailer. This paper examines the advance selling price and inventory decisions in a two‐period setting, where the first period is the advance selling period and the second is the selling (and consumption) period. We find that an advance selling strategy is not always optimal, but is contingent on parameters of the market (e.g., market potential and uncertainty) and the consumers (e.g., valuation, risk aversion, and heterogeneity). For example, we find that retailers should sell in advance if the consumers' expected valuation exceeds consumers' expected surplus when not buying early by a certain threshold. This threshold increases with the degree of risk aversion but decreases with stock out risk. If the degree of risk aversion varies across consumers, then a retailer should sell in advance if the probability for a consumer to spot buy is less than a critical fractile.     

Strategic Management of Distressed Inventory

It is well known that maximizing revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods may require discounting prices rather than allowing unsold inventory to perish. This behavior is seen in industries ranging from fashion retail to tour packages and baked goods. A number of authors have addressed the markdown management problem in which a seller seeks to determine the optimal sequence of discounts to maximize the revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods. However, merchants who consistently use markdown policies risk training customers to “wait for the sale.” We investigate models in which the decision to sell inventory at a discount will change the future expectations of customers and hence their buying behavior. We show that, in equilibrium, a single‐price policy is optimal if all consumers are strategic and demand is known to the seller. Relaxing any of these conditions can lead to a situation in which a two‐price markdown policy is optimal. We show using numerical simulation that if customers update their expectations of availability over time, then optimal sales limit policies can evolve in a complex fashion.     

考虑策略型消费者的在线零售商库存信息披露及联合定价、库存决策模型

在两期销售环境下,研究了面向策略型消费者的在线零售商库存信息披露及联合定价、库存决策问题。考虑在线零售商库存信息共享和隐藏两种库存披露策略,构建了在线零售商两期销售利润模型。通过分析消费者的购买行为,讨论了在具有策略型消费者的市场中,在线零售商应如何选择库存信息披露策略,以及如何制定最优定价和库存决策。在此基础上,分析了相关参数对在线零售商决策及利润的影响。研究结果表明,在线零售商的最优定价及库存决策受消费者估值折扣系数和第二期定价策略的影响。特别地,当在线零售商选择第一期缺货时,更倾向于共享其库存水平信息;当在线零售商选择第二期缺货或者两期均不缺货时,消费者估值折扣系数存在一个阈值,当低于该阈值时,在线零售商会选择隐藏库存水平信息,当高于该阈值时,在线零售商会选择共享库存水平信息。     

Competition and Coordination in a Two‐Channel Supply Chain

We study competition and coordination in a supply chain in which a single supplier both operates a direct channel and sells its product through multiple differentiated retailers. We study analytically the supply chain with symmetric retailers and find that the supplier prefers to have as many retailers as possible in the market, even if the retailers' equilibrium retail price is lower than that of the supplier, and even if the number of retailers and their cost or market advantage prevent sales through the direct channel. We find that the two‐channel supply chain may be subject to inefficiencies not present in the single‐channel supply chain. We show that several contracts known to coordinate a single‐channel supply chain do not coordinate the two‐channel supply chain; thus we propose a linear quantity discount contract and demonstrate its ability to perfectly coordinate the two‐channel supply chain with symmetric retailers. We provide some analytical results for the supply chain with asymmetric retailers and propose an efficient solution approach for finding the equilibrium. We find numerically that the supplier still benefits from having more retailers in the market and that linear quantity discount contracts can mitigate supply chain inefficiency, though they no longer achieve perfect coordination.     

Potentially self-defeating: Group buying in a two-tier supply chain

Retailers have an incentive to cooperate in the form of group buying (GB) when a supplier provides quantity discounts, because wholesale price under GB depends on total purchasing quantity rather than individual purchasing (IP) quantity. Most previous studies on GB focus on the benefits that buyers get but ignore the supplier׳s response to GB. In this paper, we take the supplier׳s response into consideration, and present a game model with a single supplier and two symmetric competing retailers in two systems: the retailers purchase individually, and the retailers group buy. Under a general quantity discount schedule, each system has a unique sub-game perfect equilibrium. The comparison between IP and GB suggests that GB may sabotage the benefits of all members in the supply chain (i.e., the supplier, the retailers, and the consumer). Retailers may hold contradictory attitudes toward GB before and after the publishing of the discount schedule. These insights are shown to be robust for the case when more than two retailers are involved, as well as the case when the supplier enjoys economies of scale based on the order volume. We suggest that a mixed discount schedule may help prevent the potential damage of GB. In addition, with significant economies of scale, the supplier and retailers may be better off under GB. Then GB can be a favorable purchasing strategy.     

新能源汽车补贴政策与保有量影响研究:单位补贴、销售奖励与产品差异化

以提升新能源汽车市场保有量和整体质量的补贴政策为背景,建立包括政府、制造商、零售商和消费者在内的动态博弈模型,将产业数量目标、高质量发展目标及补贴预算约束等政策特征纳入模型,对单位补贴、销售奖励以及差异化单位补贴政策的影响进行理论研究发现：在确保政府补贴绩效为正的条件下,政府对制造商和消费者的单位补贴可增加新能源汽车的 市场需求量,并提高制造商和零售商的利润水平;叠加的销售奖励不仅可改善单位补贴的市场结果,还可提高政府补贴绩效.考虑汽车质量的差异化单位补贴在不降低市场需求总量的同时,可减少低质量车的需求量并增加高质量车的需求量.单位补贴的最优值主要由政府设定的数量目标和制造商单位成本决定,数量目标和单位成本越高,则单位补贴越高,但政府补贴绩效越低.