Analysis of Latin American Fertility in Terms of Probable Social Classes

Theories of demographic change have not paid enough attention to how factors associated with fertility decline play different roles across social classes that are defined multidimensionally. I use a multidimensional definition of social class along with information on the reproductive histories of women born between 1920 and 1965 in six Latin American countries to show the following: the enduring connection between social stratification and fertility differentials, the concomitance of diverse fertility decline trajectories by class, and the role of within- and between-class social distances in promoting/preventing ideational change towards the acceptance of lower fertility. These results enable me to revisit the scope of theories of fertility change and to provide an explanatory narrative centred on empirically constructed social classes (probable social classes) and the macro- and micro-level conditions that influenced their life courses. I use 21 census samples collected between 1970 and 2005 in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay.     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

Child Survival and Fertility of Refugees in Rwanda

In the 1960s and 1990s, internal strife in Rwanda has caused a mass flow of refugees into neighbouring countries. This article explores the cumulated fertility of Rwandan refugee women and the survival of their children. To this end, we use a national survey conducted between 1999 and 2001 and covering 6,420 former refugee and non-refugee households. The findings support old-age security theories of reproductive behaviour: refugee women had higher fertility but their children had lower survival chances. Newborn girls suffered more than boys, suggesting that the usual sex differential in child survival observed in most populations changes under extreme living conditions.     

The Delayed Fertility Transition in North-East Italy

The transitional decline of fertility in Italy has never been studied using micro-data, with the exception of small areas. For the first time, we use individual retrospective fertility data collected for all the ever married women living in 20 % of households subjected to census in 1971 in the Veneto region (North-East Italy), a ‘late-comer’ area in the context of Western European fertility decline (TFR = 5.0 in 1871 and 1921, 2.5 in 1951 and 1971). In order to consider broad explanations of fertility decline, we combine individual retrospective data with other information available at two territorial levels (58 districts and 582 municipalities), using a three-level clustered regression model (district, municipality, woman). The main results are: (1) even if the (few) women with 8 + years of schooling born in the last decades of the nineteenth century already had a TFR around two, this value is not seen among women with low levels of education until those born 50 years later; (2) the link between fertility and secularization strengthens cohort after cohort, whereas the connections between fertility and industrialization and fertility and urbanization weaken; (3) throughout the period, the statistical inverse relationship between education and fertility is strong, both at the territorial and individual level.     

Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach

This article examines fertility patterns and differentials between native women, and Albanian and Bulgarian immigrants, using data from the 2001 census of Greece on the reported numbers of children ever-born alive by citizenship. The analysis focuses on changing fertility timing and quantum of women born between 1950 and 1970, and reveals that cohort fertility is highest among Albanians and lowest among Bulgarians, while levels for native women are somewhere in between. Completed cohort fertility is decreasing over time for all nationalities, while the gap observed among the ethnic groups has been narrowing. Evidence based on the 2001 censuses of Albania and Bulgaria indicates that immigrants in Greece constitute, to some extent, selected groups, compared to the inhabitants of their countries of origin.     

Modern family initiation in sweden: Experience of women born between 1936 and 1960

This report investigates trends in the initial phases of the family-building process for Swedish women in five-year cohorts born between 1936 and 1960, using life-table techniques. Non-marital cohabitation was much more widespread in our pre-World War II cohort than has been realized previously. Among never-married women, first-birth fertility was remarkably stable for those in and those not in a consensual union alike. Strong increases in non-marital fertility have resulted from progressively increasing exposure to the higher fertility of consensual unions instead of to the very low fertility of single women. Cohabitational first-birth fertility is not high compared with marital fertility.     

Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus

Between 1989 and 1993, the total fertility rate inRussia dropped from 2.01 to 1.38, a fall ofunprecedented size in peacetime. The more commonexplanation asserts that the fertility decrease is thepopulation's response to the socio-economic crisisoccurring in the country. The alternative hypothesisstates that the fertility decrease is just acontinuation of the long-term trend, while the crisishas accelerated this process. On the basis ofindividual data obtained in the 1994 microcensus,which involved 5 per cent of Russia's population, thispaper attempts to find arguments for and against eachof the two hypotheses The analysis is based onquestionnaires of 798 thousand women born between 1959and 1975. Three indicators of fertility areinvestigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expectednumber of children, and desired number of children.These indicators are linked to 28 backgroundcharacteristics, including marital status, number ofchildren ever born, ethnicity, level of education,housing condition, and income level. The data do notreveal essential fertility differentiation by economicstatus, which would be present of the first hypothesiswere right. At the same time, a clear connection isfound between the frequency of births in 1993 and suchsocio-cultural markers as living in town orcountryside, ethnicity, and the desired number ofchildren. In addition, 1993 fertility actuallyconforms to women's opinions about the number ofchildren they intend to have. These results cast doubton the hypothesis that the economic crisis is the mainand only cause of the recent fertility decrease inRussia.     

Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911–2050/Changements démographiques et disponibilité des soutiens familiaux en Grande-Bretagne, en Finlande et en France entre 1911 et 2050

We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to availability of living mothers and living children among older people in Britain, Finland and France. The proportion of people aged around 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970 before starting to decline slightly. Conversely, a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in all three countries in the next quarter century or so, with about 85% of 80-year-old women having at least one surviving child, and about two-thirds having two or more.     

"禹生于石"神话传说与石的文化意蕴

石是力量和神圣的象征,又有丰产和助产的作用,凝聚着人类心理和人类命运的某些因素;"禹生于石"这一神话传说植根于石的深层文化意蕴,隐藏着上古历史与艺术的原始意味;作为叙事原型,它对后世文学有着深远的影响,<西游记>中孙悟空的诞生、<红楼梦>中贾宝玉的玉石奇缘均源于此.     

Late,But Not Too Late? Postponement of First Birth Among Highly Educated US Women

We examine the link between the postponement of parenthood and fertility outcomes among highly educated women in the USA born in 1920–1986, using data from the CPS June Supplement 1979–2016. We argue that the postponement–low fertility nexus noted in demographic and biomedical research is especially relevant for women who pursue postgraduate education because of the potential overlap of education completion, early career stages, and family formation. The results show that women with postgraduate education differ from women with college education in terms of the timing of the first birth, childlessness, and completed fertility. While the postponement trend, which began with the cohorts born in the 1940s, has continued among highly educated women in the USA, its associations with childlessness and completed parity have changed considerably over subsequent cohorts. We delineate five distinct postponement phases over the 80-year observation window, consistent with variation over time in the prevalence of strategies for combining tertiary education and employment with family formation.     

国史、国学与国家——浅释民初清华国学研究院四位史家之思想与史学

清华大学四大史家梁启超、王国维、陈寅恪与李济之人生路程、人生观与文化观,有诸多相似之处。他们都生于清朝末年,都是南方人,"旧学"根底都很深厚,都对"西学"即所谓"现代科学"与"科学方法"下过功夫。以上四点对他们的学术路程、思想定向、世界观与人生观都有决定性的影响。四位史家到清华执教时,思想与国家观已成型,以后鲜有改变,而其最后之生命归宿亦因之而注定。四位先生之治学皆起始于国学,后转究西学,再回应国运与世势之变而归入国史之研究,乃成其终身大业。其间由于家世、家学、个人品性与人格、人生经验、立身之文化观与世界观等等因素之异殊,而使其个别经验路程不同,但亦各有创新国学系统与开辟国史新研究领域之划时代贡献。清华国学研究院在中国近代学术史与教育制度史上具有里程碑意义,与四位史家密切相关。四位史家在清华执教的1925年夏至1929年春这段时间,为清华国学研究院的黄金时期,使清华成为中国史学第一重镇,短短四年间培养出数十位史学精英。总之,国家变化、政治失修、社会失调及于个人世界之安危,使中国学术出现新局面,而国史之重整与翻新亦多为其相连之结果。     

Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)

In the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation and fertility instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents’ opportunities to combine work and family life.     

生育意愿的代际差异分析 ———以江苏省为例

利用江苏省"生育意愿和生育行为研究"调查数据,文章从意愿生育子女数、意愿子女性别、意愿生育年龄等三个维度出发,考察了不同代际(60后、70后、80后)育龄妇女生育意愿和生育观念的差异.研究发现,80年代出生的育龄妇女少生、晚生、优生的意愿趋势明显,以孩子为中心的观念也在弱化,性别选择更趋向无偏好化.新型生育文化及观念在我国发达的农村地区已成现实,这些事实对生育政策的调整具有重要参考意义.     

阮籍的人生矛盾初探

阮籍是魏晋南北朝时期极富特色的思想家、文学家之一.他生不逢时,抱负无从施展,在残酷的政治清洗与身家毁灭中,他矛盾重重,表面狂放不羁、任情放达,内心却痛苦不堪、恐惧忧虑.其人生矛盾主要体现在以下三个方面:一是政治态度上"心"与"迹"的矛盾;二是思想形态上"儒"与"道"的矛盾;三是行为方式上"狂"与"慎"的矛盾.     

“白诗歌”文本:艺术主张与实证——读《白诗歌》创刊号兼评当代诗歌面临的新突破

"白诗歌"作为生长于广东的一个诗歌群体,在如何继承传统、发掘现实及口语的运用等方面进行了独特的理论倡导和有效的创作实践,这是当代诗歌发展中一个不可忽视的事件。本文对白诗歌的艺术主张、代表性创作进行了观察和分析,提出中国当代诗歌应该特别关注此类创作走向的吁求,并阐述了对中国当代诗歌发展的一些观点和看法。     

学术与政治之间--新儒学大家徐复观的学思与生平

评价了徐复观的一生.徐复观为贫苦农家子弟,早年学业优异,后为国民党党政军联合秘书处副秘书长.徐复观才华横溢,刚直不阿,不满蒋介石的专制,揭露抨击国民党的腐败,后毅然退党.转向学术后著作等身、成就卓然,为一代新儒家代表人物.徐复观青壮年深受马克思主义影响,晚年主张中国文化的出路在于儒家人文主义与民主自由主义的创造性融合.其理想社会为民主社会主义.     

Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

乐钧生平和家世考证研究

乐钧是清代乾嘉时期的文学家。学者对乐钧的诗词和文言小说研究的较多,到目前为止,还没有学者对其家世和生平进行专门的研究。文章试着从乐钧生平和家世两方面对其进行考证研究。乐钧,生于乾隆三十一年(1766),卒于嘉庆十九年(1814),享年四十九岁。乐钧出身于贫苦之家,其妻王氏则是当地声望很高、传奇式才子王痴山之女,乐钧和王氏共育有四儿一女。     

论《青史演义》的创作背景

《青史演义》是蒙古族文学史上一部最著名的长篇小说。其作者尹湛纳希生活在近代中国从封建社会进入半殖民地半封建社会时期。他亲身经历了殖民主义、帝国主义侵略和清朝国力的衰败。当时蒙古族社会上层阶级安于现状 ,麻木不仁 ,而且整个蒙古社会信奉黄教 ,百姓们为了来世的利益 ,牺牲此生的事业 ,很大程度上丧失了进取心。为了重振蒙古民族英勇、坚韧的民族精神 ,《青史演义》由此应运而生了。     

The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women’s fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women’s education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China’s higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women’s education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010–2012), findings show that each year of women’s education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women’s education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.