浅析以色列的"定点清除"政策

2000年9月,巴以冲突爆发以来,以方不断强化以打击巴激进组织领导人和活跃分子为目标的"定点清除"政策.不可否认,短期内这种政策给巴激进组织和成员以沉重打击,在一定程度上使其行为有所约束.但是,此种违反国际法的"清除"政策遭到了国际社会的强烈谴责,也违背了以色列自身的长远利益.巴以冲突的历史表明,武力征服不了一个民族,巴以和平唯有通过政治谈判才能实现.     

争议中的以色列定点清除政策

以色列是世界上首个公开使用定点清除并将之合法化的国家。面对愈演愈烈的恐怖主义活动,以色列将秘密报复式的定点清除行为转变为公开的预防性反恐行动。虽然以色列通过以色列反对酷刑公共委员会诉以色列政府案判例赋予定点清除行为以合法地位,但定点清除在有效性与国际法层面仍存在争议。作为反恐手段,学界对定点清除在打击恐怖主义有效性和提升以色列国内安全程度方面评价不一。定点清除的国际法框架适用尚缺乏共识;规范定点清除行为的上述判例对直接参与、在直接参与敌对行动的时间里等条件的解释和在具体情形认定上也较国际人道法原则更为宽泛,成为定点清除在实践上面临的制约因素。     

布什政府“新中东政策”评析

布什政府新近推出的和平计划虚多实少，存在诸多缺陷。美国的中东政策服务于全球反恐的战略需要，没有也不可能改变“袒以压巴”的一贯立场。美国政策的利己主义不可能给中东带来持久的和平，新政策避免了不昙花一现的命运。     

中东变局对以色列安全的影响

2011年的中东变局触动着以色列的敏感神经,中东变局将对以色列的安全环境造成不利影响。穆巴拉克政府垮台后,以色列担心埃以和平协议能否继续得到遵守。对于叙利亚的阿萨德政府的未来,以色列则抱有矛盾心态。以色列最担心的是伊朗扩大其影响,并加快核发展进程。以色列对这场变局总体上采取旁观立场,但也意识到继续推进巴以和平进程具有紧迫性。     

中东变局对以色列安全的影响

2011年的中东变局触动着以色列的敏感神经,中东变局将对以色列的安全环境造成不利影响。穆巴拉克政府垮台后,以色列担心埃以和平协议能否继续得到遵守。对于叙利亚的阿萨德政府的未来,以色列则抱有矛盾心态。以色列最担心的是伊朗扩大其影响,并加快核发展进程。以色列对这场变局总体上采取旁观立场,但也意识到继续推进巴以和平进程具有紧迫性。     

中东地区格局变动中的以色列

以色列在中东地区格局的转变中更趋孤立,周边安全环境遭受巨大冲击后趋于复杂,巴以和谈重新启动,但进展迟缓,以色列国内安全堪忧,以土关系跌入低谷后重回正常化轨道,以色列对伊朗发出动武威胁,并反对伊核协议的达成。     

浅析沙龙政府的单边撤离计划

单边撤离计划是沙龙政府提出的单方面从部分巴勒斯坦被占领土上撤离的计划，是从以色列的角度提出的实现巴以和平的方案。此项计划是沙龙政府在综合多方面因素、反复进行利弊权衡的基础上提出的。这项计划自提出之时就备受争议，沙龙政府既要面对来自国内的巨大压力，还要与巴勒斯坦方面以及国际社会进行协调与对话。这项计划的执行不可避免地会对以色列国内的政治、安全状况及巴以局势产生重要影响。     

美国反恐战争第三阶段的政策

伊战后，美国开始修正其原订反恐第三阶段目标，制定了“小心谨慎但又不能无所作为”的新对策。本丈就其缘由及新对策的缺陷等问题作一剖析。     

阿拉伯国家在巴以问题上的民族主义

阿拉伯国家在摆脱殖民压迫，建立独立国家后，国家主权意识不断加强，大多数阿拉伯国家在处理巴以问题时，逐渐把本国的国家利益放在了首位。二战后，阿拉伯国家在意识形态领域经历了从阿拉伯民族主义到国家民族主义的演变过程。这一过程也是阿拉伯国家承认以色列、与以色列和解的过程。没有阿拉伯国家在思想领域的这一变化，就不会有中东和平进程。     

加沙之战背后的政治角力

随着2005年以来巴勒斯坦人大起义的逐渐平息,加上此起彼伏的其他中东问题,巴以冲突在中东热点问题排序中一度有所下降。然而,就在2008年的12月27日,随着以色列对加沙地区的空袭,以色列与哈马斯之间的对抗再度成为国际社会关注的焦点。     

试析中东弹道导弹的扩散

在西方的支持下,1948年建国的以色列首先获得导弹,打破了中东的战略平衡,引起更多的中东国家把大量的财力、人力投入导弹的研制或从国外购买成品导弹与导弹技术上,形成持久的军备竞赛,而弹道导弹就是中东国家极为青睐的军事装备之一,这种导弹在整个中东地区的扩散,更加剧了地区本就紧张的局势.     

从以色列撤离加沙看巴勒斯坦问题的解决前景

巴勒斯坦问题的最终解决将以建立独立的拥有永久边界的巴勒斯坦国而告终.至于在未来一段时间内是建立拥有临时边界和主权象征的巴勒斯坦国,还是建立独立的拥有永久边界的巴勒斯坦国则取决于巴以和谈的结果.以色列可能有条件地从它1967年第三次中东战争中所占领的约旦河西岸的大部分土地上撤走,在巴以谈判中以1949年停战线即“绿线”为基础,进行小幅度调整.     

伊战对阿以和平进程的影响

美国发动的对伊战争将使阿伯世界进一步分裂与重组。战后,美国虽主导了“中东和平路线图”计划,但美并未改变其袒以压巴政策,以也未改变其对巴的强硬政策,因此,和平路线图计划将面临重重困难,中东地区很可能继续处于动荡之中,中东和平仍将路漫漫。     

THE BRIDLED BRIDE OF PALESTINE: ORIENTALISM,ZIONISM, AND THE TROUBLED URBAN IMAGINATION

Through ethnographic and archival research centered in Jaffa, this article analyzes how the image of the Jewish-Arab mixed city has been represented and (re)produced in the Zionist historical imagination since the establishment of the state of Israel to the present. Vacillating between romantic historicity and political violence, the image of Jaffa poses a political and hermeneutic challenge to the territorial project of urban Judaization, which ultimately failed to define and establish the national-cum-cultural identity of this “New-Old” city. This failure, I argue, results in a persistent pattern of semiotic ambivalence which, from the Jewish-Israeli point of view, positions Jaffa both as a source of identity and longing (in the distant past) as well as a symbol of alterity and enmity (in the recent past)— an object of desire and fear alike. As such, Jaffa and other ethnically mixed towns (including Ramle, Lydda, Haifa, and Acre) occupy a problematic place in Israeli and Palestinian political and cultural imagination. A bi-national borderland in which Arabs and Jews live de facto together, these cities bring to the fore, on the one hand, the paradox of Palestinian citizens in a fundamentally Jewish state, while simultaneously suggesting, by the very spatial and social realization of “mixed-ness,” the potential imaginary of its solution. Unfolding through four distinct historical modalities of urban Orientalism, this article historicizes the highly politicized image of the Jewish-Arab city and the discourse on its future. These discursive formations reconfigured the public space that enabled, paradoxically since the October 2000 events, new political claims for equal citizenship, bi-national cooperation, and Palestinian presence.     

Radical Ground: Israeli and Palestinian Activists and Joint Protest Against the Wall

We present a comparison of two cases of ‘parading protest’ that share roots in a long Anglo-European tradition but unfolded in very different political and social contexts. Both Orangemen in Northern Ireland and Washingtonian temperance activists in the United States made strategic and contentious use of the power of socially-approved meanings attached to parading. These different cases of parading turned to protest as elements of the ceremonial parade were appropriated by working-class groups to challenge authorities and rally others to the cause. We argue that the centrality of symbols and ritual in social movement, their polysemous character, the authority associated with them, and the social psychological processes through which they operate help explain how parades may be appropriated for both orthodox and insurgent purposes.     

从巴以选举看巴以政局演变

2006年初,巴勒斯坦和以色列相继进行了两场重要的选举。哈马斯出人意料地战胜了法塔赫,在孤立的国际环境中组建了巴勒斯坦新政府。不久,以色列政坛也因沙龙退出利库德集团却又突然卧病而发生强震。持强硬立场的哈马斯和继承沙龙路线的前进党上台,使巴以政局发生重大变化,也使巴以局势和中东和平进程蒙上阴影。巴以内部政治势力的演变在很大程度上决定着决策者在和谈进程中的战略选择。剖析巴以政局巨变的背景,有助于更好地理解近年来巴以谈判陷入困境的原因,进而对巴以局势的走向作出较准确的判断。     

Bringing the Outside In: Field Interaction and Transformation from Below in Political Struggles

This article applies field theory in order to build an understanding of aspects of social movements practice. It argues that the way social movements are positioned within their various fields of practice and the way these fields inter-relate with each other can help explain how movements arrive at their strategies and ideologies. The relationship between the fields within which social movements operate also provides a means to explain how movement participants can become agents for change.

The article discusses the case of British Jewish Israel-critical groups, an example of a movement suspended between several different fields of practice – both local and distant. The internal movement debate around boycotting Israel illustrates how movement activities are channelled by the local fields within which they contend. Their relationship with the distant Palestinian field demonstrates the importance of the influence of external fields in forming social movement ideology. This model views social movement actors – especially those within distant issue movements – as translators between various fields of practice. This provides a mechanism to explain how challengers within a field can overcome the limitations of internal field habitus and become agents for field transformation.     

Rational choice and the political bases of changing Israeli counterinsurgency strategy

Israeli counterinsurgency doctrine holds that the persistent use of credible threat and disproportionate military force results in repeated victories that eventually teach the enemy the futility of aggression. The doctrine thus endorses classical rational choice theory's claim that narrow cost-benefit calculations shape fixed action rationales. This paper assesses whether Israel's strategic practice reflects its counterinsurgency doctrine by exploring the historical record and the association between Israeli and Palestinian deaths due to low-intensity warfare. In contrast to the expectations of classical rational choice theory, the evidence suggests that institutional, cultural and historical forces routinely override simple cost-benefit calculations. Changing domestic and international circumstances periodically cause revisions in counterinsurgency strategy. Credible threat and disproportionate military force lack the predicted long-term effect.