人口流动与居住分离:经济理性抑或制度制约?

国际移民家庭成员的居住分离多被看作是理性选择的结果,而在中国,流动和留守的决定在很大程度上超越了经济理性的范畴。本文利用2013年"流动人口动态监测调查"数据,从制度和结构视角出发,突出户籍制度的"双二元性",综合考虑个体、家庭和社区因素,分析了在业流动人口核心家庭成员居住分离的基本特征和影响要素。结果表明,大约四成流动人口未能实现与家庭团聚。他们大多来自农村,跨越省界,缺乏城镇职工养老保险,居住在雇主提供的免费住房中,流动人口居住社区的政治准入门槛较高,流动人口生活在东部或西部城市。尽管东部和西部地区家庭分离的概率几乎相同,但机制有别:前者主要是被选择的结果,因为团聚的门槛较高;后者主要是自选择的结果,因为欠发达地区的劳动力市场和公共资源对流动人口家庭成员缺乏吸引力。故此,推进家庭团聚需因地制宜,针对重点人群,实现"从流动到留住"的转变,为流入地积累人力资源,为可持续性发展提供保障。     

中国省际人口迁移与东部地带的经济发展:1995～2000

本文主要考察了 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年间中国省际人口迁移与东部地带经济发展的关系 ,发现省际迁移人口 (外来劳动力 )已成为推动东部地带经济发展不可替代的重要因素。正是大量外来劳动力的迁入 ,弥补了东部地带本地劳动力供给的不足 ,推动东部地带的GDP增长了 1 0 %以上 ,对东部地带GDP增长的贡献度几乎达 1 5 %。而且在东部地带 ,越是省际人口迁移吸引中心 ,迁入人口规模越大 ,迁入的外来劳动力对推动迁入地经济发展的作用和贡献就越大。     

Economic Migration and Urban Citizenship in China: The Role of Points Systems

The conversion of a hukou (household registration) from one locale to another in China requires official approval, a process subject to conditions set out in numerous regulations. This article examines the role of points systems for selecting economic migrants eligible for an urban hukou in several provinces. Using the points systems, city governments prioritize human resources and capital, which they consider to be the key to economic prosperity, over social objectives. Meanwhile the majority of migrants, who participate in urban employment without official registration, are treated as necessary contributors to the economy but not as qualified beneficiaries of it. It remains to be seen, with a wider application of points systems in more Chinese cities, whether the hukou system will evolve to make urban citizenship less exclusive and more equitable. The article provides detailed examples, at the province and city level, of rating schemes for qualifying for an urban hukou.     

中国的经济开放与经济型人口流动

本文从地区工资差别和就业机会的理论出发 ,论证了中国的经济型人口及劳动力流动的变化 ,并根据哈里斯和托达罗的模型 ,结合作为中国典型的人口流动现象的农村剩余劳动力向城市流动的趋向 ,提出了经济开放刺激的城市经济环境是诱发人口流动的主要的原因     

中国人口的迁移转变——基于迁移率的考察

经典人口转变理论侧重死亡和生育转变过程的测量、描述和解释,地理学家将迁移转变纳入人口转变框架,以完善人口转变理论。不过与死亡和生育转变研究不同,中国的迁移研究侧重基于对迁移流动人口规模和结构的考察分析,少有采用人口学意义上的迁移率指标的研究。文章利用2010—2015年历次中国综合社会调查的合并数据,通过人口学方法和泊松回归模型,计算和分析了1950—2015年中国人口迁移率趋势及社会经济差异。中国的迁移转变在宏观趋势上与中国的政治经济变迁高度一致。与死亡和生育转变相比,其波折性更强,说明更易受到经济社会政策变化的冲击。同时也观察到逢“0”和逢“5”年份的申报偏好。另外,迁移的社会经济差异明显。男性迁移率高于女性,但是两性差异在不断缩小;乡城迁移和未婚迁移大幅度增长;而越来越多受教育程度较高人群加入迁移,使得受教育程度越高的人群具有越高的迁移率。可以认为基于迁移率的考察揭示了中国迁移转变更具体生动的过程。     

中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析

本文利用 2 0 0 0年五普数据 ,根据户记录的有关信息 ,证明了家庭迁移是我国 1 990年代人口迁移中的一个重要特征 ,而且目前的家庭迁移是以核心家庭的迁移为主要形式。在此基础上 ,利用罗吉斯蒂回归分析了家庭特征对于家庭迁移的影响作用。分析表明 ,除了家庭特征以外 ,户主的个人特征在家庭迁移中同样是重要的影响因素     

Postmarital Living Arrangements in Historically Patrilocal Settings: Integrating Household Fission and Migration Perspectives

This study integrates theory and research on household fission (or partition) and migration to better understand living arrangements following marriage, especially in historically patrilocal and primarily agricultural settings. Using panel data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study to analyze the sequential decision-making process that influences men’s living arrangements subsequent to first marriage, we demonstrate the importance of distinguishing among extended family living, temporary migration, and the establishment of an independent household. We find that community economic characteristics, such as access to markets or employment, as well as household wealth affect the initial decision to leave the natal home. Household resources and use of farmland, along with the young men’s own education, media exposure, travel, and marital behavior, influence the decision to make the departure from the natal home permanent. Our findings explain why previous results regarding household fission and those focused on migration have provided such mixed results, and we establish a new framework for thinking about how families and individuals manage living situations.     

中国劳动力流动社会经济政策演化脉络与效应研究

中国在经济转轨过程中所经历的劳动力流动,既是一种社会发展现象,也是一种转轨现象。在这一过程中,我国劳动力流动本身以及相关宏观社会经济政策作用的微妙性突显了其与发达经济体、新兴市场国家的差异化特征。文章区分了劳动力流动宏观社会经济政策与地方政府的微观干预措施,侧重探究1978²012年劳动力流动宏观社会经济政策的演化脉络及其在每一个阶段给劳动力流动与宏观经济带来的社会效应与经济效应。研究认为,改革开放以来劳动力流动社会经济政策在不同程度上存在着偏重城市与发达地区而弱化农村与欠发达地区的政策导向。在这一政策导向下,其作用于劳动力流动应有的经济效应与社会效应并不显著,从这一视角来看,甚至是延缓了城乡间与地区间差距的缩小进程以及外流劳动者微观主体福利的提升进度。     

我国区际劳动力流动对经济增长的影响—就业结构变动效应的视角

改革开放以来,大量劳动力由中西部地区的农业部门流向东部沿海发达地区的非农部门,同步实现劳动力的乡城迁移和产业转移,这既是我国市场经济发展、二元经济结构转换的必然结果,也是支撑我国国民经济增长的一个重要机制。研究结果表明。80年代中期以来,随着我国区际劳动力流动日益活跃,劳动力就业结构效应对国民经济总量增长的贡献率呈加强趋势。消除限制区际劳动力流动的各种障碍,进一步增强我国区域问劳动力流动性,是促进国民经济持续快速发展的应时之举。     

Economic Impact of Rural to Urban Labor Migration in China from 1991 to 2011

This paper quantitatively explores the size of rural labor force transfer and the specified flow nonagricultural industries, and the corresponding contribution of the increase of labor force utilization and productivity to economic growth from 1991 to 2011. The transfer size increased from 86.73 million people in 1990 to more than 250 million people in 2011. In 2011, 53.7% of the transfer labor worked in second industry, the others in third industry. By using growth accounting, this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population, labor force productivity and labor force utilization. Firstly, the paper calculated the real average annual growth rate of these three factor from 1991 to 2011 and their contributions to GDP growth. Then we calculated the changes of three factors and GDP'growth rates under the scenario without rural labor transfer, and finally got the contribution of rural labor transfer to GDP growth by comparing the difference between real and assumption scenario. The resuit shows that from 1991 to 2011, the real average annual growth rate of three factors were 1.3%, 9.3% and-0.3%, and their contribution the GDP growth was 12.2%, 90.2% and-2.4%separately. Under the scenario without rural labor transfer, the average annual growth rates of labor force productivity and labor force utilization would reduce to 8.9% and-1.4%, while the GDP average annual growth rate would reduce from 10.3% to 8.8%. The profound analysis in details shows that the transfer promoted labor force utilization by 30.7%and productivity by 23.9% annually on average, therefore promoting GDP by 63.7%, and GDP growth rate by 1.6% annually on average. On the one hand, through the utilizing of the ‘surplus rural labor force', the transfer promoted the labor force utilization, then made the potential population dividend brought by the increase of working age population size practical; on the other hand, through promoting of labor force industry structure, the transfer promoted the total productivity. The transfer has been and will be an important driving force of economic growth in China.     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

农村劳动者流动中的几个问题

在中国现有的研究和相关的政策建议中,流动常常都被看做是缓解乡村"剩余"人口(劳动者)压力的一种方法,也是实现现代化的一种主要手段。换句话说,乡村被看做中国现代化的主要障碍之一,它带来的更多是问题而不是解决问题的方法。作者提出,研究人员和决策者应该更多地考虑农村外出劳动者对于流出地发展所做的重要贡献。     

Internal Migration and Mental Health: An Examination of the Healthy Migration Phenomenon in China

Population Research and Policy Review - Using the 2008 and 2009 Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey data, two waves of a nationally representative survey dataset, this study...     

1985～2000年我国人口迁移对区域经济差异的均衡作用研究

经济体制改革后的区域经济差异持续扩大是促动我国人口迁移空前活跃的主要因素 ,而日趋活跃的人口迁移亦对经济社会的发展及区域差异变动产生了深刻的影响。本文的研究将人口迁移与区域经济结合起来 ,通过测算我国 1 985～ 1 990、 1 990～ 1 995和 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年各省区在人口迁移前后“人口-GDP”的基尼系数变化趋势 ,验证人口迁移对区域经济发展不均衡的减缓作用。在此基础上 ,测算相应时段区域经济均衡发展情况下的各区域理论人口规模和人口迁移潜力 ,并分析了我国迁移人口的释放速度。     

论人口城乡迁移与农村土地产权制度变迁

文章从制度经济学的角度 ,分析农村土地产权制度变迁和人口迁移决策之间的相互关系 ,并就农村土地产权制度安排如何影响农村人口向城市迁移作一些尝试性的探讨 ,以期为个人理性迁移和人口合理流动提供理论依据和制度支持。     

Barriers to Sexual and Reproductive Health Programming for Adolescents Living with HIV in Uganda

Despite revising their reproductive health policies in line with the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action, a major challenge facing many developing countries is the inability to fully implement the policies owing to lack of funds, bureaucratic delays, and limited awareness among various stakeholders. In some countries, the policies fail to adequately address sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs of vulnerable groups. This study examines the barriers to SRH programming for adolescents living with HIV from the perspectives of key stakeholders involved in SRH issues in Uganda. The data are from qualitative interviews conducted in 2007 with 23 key informants from bilateral institutions, government ministries, and civil society organizations. The study findings confirm that policy and programmatic gaps exist in addressing the SRH needs of HIV-positive adolescents. This is attributable to: (1) lack of clear guidelines on how to address the SRH of HIV-positive adolescents; (2) challenges of dealing with adolescent SRH in general; (3) HIV/AIDS treatment, care, and support services that are either pediatric- or adult-oriented; and (4) limited institutional and provider capacity to offer SRH services to HIV-positive adolescents despite recognizing that this is an emerging area that requires intervention. These results suggest the need for: (1) clear guidelines on dealing with SRH of HIV-positive adolescents; (2) establishing transition clinics or youth-friendly corners to cater for the needs of adolescents who cannot fit in either pediatric or adult clinics; and (3) providing training and reorientation on SRH of HIV-positive adolescents to service providers/counsellors.     

Family Migration Pattern in China

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and ＂getting old before getting rich＂ in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change＇？ Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not retirement age and Long-term stability in a sustainable system,Gradually raising the replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or cotlntries,but the latter is more urgent.     

经济发展不平衡、人口迁移与人口老龄化区域差异——基于全国287个地级市的研究

中国区域社会经济发展程度差异巨大,人口转变的起止时间有别、过程有异,故而会导致人口老龄化呈现区域不平衡性。我国自20世纪80年代掀起并持续至今的规模巨大的人口迁移浪潮又势必使得中国人口老龄化的区域不平衡性呈现更多新的特征,甚至是颠覆性的改变。然而沿袭这一思路在地级市层面上探讨人口老龄化的区域不平衡性及其演化趋势的研究并不多见。为此,本文以全国287个地级市为研究对象,基于五普和六普分县汇总资料,从程度和速度两个角度考察中国人口老龄化区域差异及其演化趋势,并采用多元回归模型探讨经济不平衡和人口迁移是如何重塑人口老龄化的空间分布格局的。结果表明,2000年以来中国人口老龄化的区域差异已经发生逆转,从经济越发达地区人口老龄化程度越高转变成经济欠发达地区的老龄化速度更快、老龄化程度可能更高,经济发达地区的老龄化速度却有所放缓、甚至老龄化程度有所降低。主导这种变化的正是国内大规模的、具有明显方向偏好性和年龄选择性的人口迁移,根本上是缘于地区经济发展水平的不均衡。在规模效应和经济集聚规律作用下,国内人口集聚之势还将继续发展,人口老龄化区域不平衡性将会持续深化,进而加剧地区不平衡。     

个体经济地位、婚前家庭经济差异与婚姻迁移

婚姻迁移是通过婚姻途径发生的并伴随户口变更的人口迁移。我国婚姻迁移人口的规模不断增长,婚姻迁移受性别、出生地、出生年代的影响,初婚年龄的队列差别对婚姻迁移同样存在影响。个人经济地位,即个人年收入越高,婚姻迁移的可能性越大。婚前男方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性更高,女方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性相对较低。     

公平与效率视野下的高考移民观

近年来愈演愈烈的“高考移民”引起了社会各界的广泛关注,不同的利益集团对此有不同的观点和态度,其实质在于公平与效率之争。本文目的是在对各种争论的解析基础上,以增进全社会福利与效率为目标来寻求“高考移民”问题的应对之策。“高考移民”问题产生源于不公平教育现状下不公平的制度安排,通过对高考制度的公平观与效率观的界定,发现二者具有高度统一的关系:解决了公平问题,效率问题也就迎刃而解。对于向北京、上海等直辖市迁移的“高考移民”(移民I),关键在于建立一个公开合理的市场交易制度;而对于向西部及偏远地区迁移的“高考移民”(移民II),政府需要调整目前通过高压政策来寻求可望而不可及的均衡解的做法,转向努力实现各地区基础教育质量与水平的平衡,才能达到公平与效率的统一。