Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences

Little is known about fertility in Armenia and Moldova, the two countries that have both, according to national statistics, experienced very low levels of fertility during the dramatic economic, social and political restructuring in the last two decades. This article fills this gap and explores recent fertility behaviour and current fertility preferences using 2005 Demographic and Health Survey data. Educational differences in fertility decline and the association between socioeconomic indicators and fertility preferences are considered from an economic perspective. Special emphasis is given to determining whether and how diverging economic conditions in the two countries as well as crisis conditions may have influenced fertility. Second parity progression ratios (PPR) reveal a positive relationship between the degree of decline from 1990 to 2005 and education, whereas third PPR declines appear the greatest for women with both the lowest and highest education. In both countries, logistic regression results suggest that working women are more likely to want a second child, as well as want the child sooner university than later in Armenia, and the wealthiest women in Armenia have a higher odds of wanting a third child. Dual-jobless couples are less likely to want a second child in Moldova and more likely to postpone the next child in Armenia. These findings offer some insight into the shifts in fertility behaviour in these two post-Soviet countries and suggest that despite diverging economic trajectories and a lessening commitment to the two-child norm in Moldova, determinants of fertility behaviour and preferences have remained similar in both countries.     

Childcare Cash Benefits and Fertility Timing in Norway

In 1998 a new cash benefit for parents with young children was introduced in Norway. Its purpose was to provide a cash payment to parents who either preferred to care for their children at home or to compensate those who were not offered external childcare provision. It has been argued that the new policy encouraged women to stay at home with their children, possibly reducing labour supply. The policy was consequently considered gender-biased, creating reduced incentives for women to participate in the labour market and therefore encouraging a more traditional division of labour of husbands and wives. Given this background of the policy, we undertake an analysis in two parts. We ask first the question “who takes the cash benefit?” Second, by applying simple matching techniques, we ask the question “Do couples taking the benefit behave differently in terms of their fertility timing?” Using information from Norwegian registers we find that more traditional households (in a broad sense) are more likely to take the cash benefit. Those taking the benefit accelerate childbearing significantly, though the reasons why they do so varies by socio-economic groups.     

Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s

During the last two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followed by a period of lower employment and decreasing fertility since the beginning of the 1990s. In this paper, we use register data for Swedish women in order to examine how various types of attachment to the labour market affect women's propensity to give birth at different parities. Specifically, we show what impact changes in women's employment status have had on recorded fertility trends in Sweden. We find that women who have relatively low levels of income and women who are enrolled as students generally have lower fertility than other women. We also find that a rise in the number of women with such characteristics can explain part of the decrease in fertility during the 1990s. It is evident, however, that other factors, working at the macro level, also have to be considered when one wants to explain the fluctuating fertility of Sweden. Social policy is one such factor. In sum, we find a pattern of pro-cyclical fertility, where levels of female earnings are positively related to levels of childbearing.     

The Impact of Subjective Work Control, Job Strain and Work?CFamily Conflict on Fertility Intentions: a European Comparison

The link between employment and fertility is often only examined by focussing on women's labour market status or the impact of part- versus full-time employment. This study introduces a new explanation by extending research to examine how women's subjective perceptions of control or autonomy over work, job strain and work-family conflict influence fertility intentions. National-level measures of childcare enrolment under the age of three and the occurrence of part-time work are also included to examine their relation to fertility intentions and their interplay with perceptions of work. Using data from 23 countries from the 2004/5 European Social Survey (ESS), multilevel logistic regression models of fertility intentions are estimated separately for women without children and women with one child. Women with higher levels of work control are significantly more likely to intend to have a second child. Higher levels of job strain (time pressure) significantly lower fertility intentions for mothers in contexts where childcare availability is low. The prevalence of part-time work amongst the female work force significantly predicts the intention to become a mother but has different effects for women who work part-time themselves compared with full-time employees.     

会展危机的形成影响及其预防

会展业是一个极具发展前景的行业,同时它又是一个对危机表现得较为敏感的行业,如果在危机来临时处理不当,就会产生很大的负面作用。为此,从危机理论出发来研究会展危机管理、健全危机管理体系,有利于会展业的持续发展。本文就会展危机的含义及形式、危机对会展的影响及会展危机的预防与应对措施等方面进行了阐述。     

The labour supply of married and cohabiting women in the Netherlands, 1981–1989

The analysis of labour supply involves two issues: whether individuals participate in the labour market and, if they do, for how many hours. In this article we investigate the differences in labour supply of married women and cohabiting women in the Netherlands; we try to answer the question how these differences can be explained. From this study, it can be concluded that differences between both categories of women in participation and in weekly hours worked can predominantly be explained by differences in characteristics (e.g. age, net wage rate, and age of children), than by differences in behaviour. The empirical results indicate that cohabiting women are more economically independent than married women. However for married women we found evidence that there was increased economic independence during the eighties; i.e. their weekly hours work has become less affected by the income of their partners.     

危机激励对绩效的影响

随着市场经济的逐步成熟 ,企业竞争越来越激烈 ,企业面对着各种危机。如何有效地化解危机并予以利用 ,值得企业管理者思考。危机激励在现代高科技企业中运用较多 ,但理论上研究还较少。本文将从危机激励影响绩效的因素、危机激励对绩效的影响、危机激励绩效控制三方面进行探讨     

Demographic aspects of educational expansion and labour-force development in the federal republic of germany

This paper assesses the impact of the baby boom and the subsequent decline of fertility to below-replacement level for both the educational system and the labour market. The experience of the last 25 years is documented and projections through to 2030 are presented. Particular attention is paid to comparison of the effects of demographic change with the effects of changing educational needs and aspirations.     

金融危机及经济复苏的经济理论分析

提出一种新的经济理论来解释危机的形成和一个重大危机可能需要很长时间才能恢复的根本原因。市场参与者对收益和损失的不对称的心理反应是造成危机和危机恢复时间慢长而痛苦的主要原因。对经济恢复的三种不同形状：V、U和L进行了定义和解释。在当前的金融危机形势下,一些国家如中国和印度,可能会经历一个V型复苏,而英、美等国则可能是U形复苏。同时,本文还提出了一个重要的反周期性的经济政策,以期降低危机发生的概率以及危机发生后所造成的破坏作用。     

金融危机传导路径的FDI视角分析

在全球陷入金融危机的大背景下,通过对以往数次金融危机的分析,着眼于FDI的利用在频发金融危机的新兴经济体中的影响,并考察新时期FDI的新形式,认为FDI尽管在经济发展过程中起到了不可忽视的作用,但由于其利用缺乏合理的引导与监督,在发展中国家的金融危机中起到了推波助澜的作用,所以我国在利用FDI的同时要理性、认识FDI对经济发展的影响,谨慎发展我国金融衍生品市场,同时要加强对房地产市场的监控并加大支持力度。     

基于马克思经济危机理论的美国金融危机问题研究

马克思早在1857—1858年经济危机中写作的《政治经济学批判大纲（草稿）》中就建立了他的金融危机理论。此次美国金融危机尽管发生在当代经济条件下，表现出自己的特点，但其演变的全过程却很好地印证了马克思金融危机理论的真理性。因此，运用马克思理论，对美国金融危机进行更深层次剖析，对于我们更全面认识、防范和化解金融危机，无疑具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

在华日本企业公关危机管理研究

频发的公关危机阻碍了日企的在华发展。本文总结了在华日企公关危机现状,提出产品质量危机、民族政治冲突危机、人事危机等正成为在华日企危机重灾区,需受到重点关注;从历史政治背景、错误的战略定位、对中国跨越式成长的不适应、企业品牌形象传播不足以及公关素养缺乏等多方面深入解析了危机频发的原因;最后从危机预警、处理和修复三阶段提出了公关危机管理的相关建议。     

阿根廷与泰国金融危机的比较研究

拉美与东南亚国家同属新兴市场经济国家,先后都爆发了严重的金融危机,这里蕴涵着一种可能性,即:发展中国家在发展经济时一定存在着某种共同的缺陷。阿根廷和泰国分别是这两次金融危机的起源国,也是受害最严重的国家。比较这两次危机有助于对金融危机的认识,并能为我国发展经济提供有益的借鉴。     

Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings.     

Religion, Religiousness and Fertility in the US and in Europe

This article aims to assess the role of religion and religiousness in engendering higher US fertility compared to Europe. Religion is important in the life of one-half of US women, whereas not even for one of six Europeans. By every available measure, American women are more religious than European women. Catholic and Protestant women have notably higher fertility than those not belonging to any denomination in the US and across Europe. In all European regions and in the United States as well as among all denominations the more devout have more children. However, women in Northern and Western Europe who are the least religious have equivalent or even higher fertility than women in the US, and notably higher fertility than those in Southern Europe. This suggests that forces other than religion and religiousness are also important in their impact on childbearing. A multivariate analysis demonstrates that relatively “traditional” socio-economic covariates (age, marital status, residence, education, and income) do not substantially change the positive association of religiousness and fertility. Finally, if Europeans were as religious as Americans one might theoretically expect a small fertility increase for Europe as a whole, but considerably more for Western Europe.     

管理与危机管理之比较

管理作为人类的重要活动之一,有不同的表现形式。危机管理是应对危机状态时一种特殊的管理形式。伴随着全球化竞争的加剧,各种危机也在此起彼伏,这里试通过对危机管理和一般管理的时空二维度比较分析,揭示危机管理内在的本质,并对危机管理的常态化发展、实施有效地时间与空间的有机置换等作以具体的探讨。     

中国特色社会主义:应对两大危机的希望——生态马克思主义双重危机论及其启示

生态马克思主义双重危机理论,是全面认识、科学应对当前金融危机和生态危机的重要理论和思想方法。文章阐述和运用双重危机理论,认为金融危机和生态危机是当今人类社会面临的两大危机,生态危机是引发金融危机的重要根源,金融危机可能加剧生态危机也可能缓解生态危机,同时提出中国特色社会主义是应对两大危机的希望。     

浅析危机公关的作用

激烈的市场竞争环境下，企业随时可能遭遇危机。在危机处理中，危机公关在维护公众利益，争取舆论支持，重塑品牌形象等方面有着重要作用，文章从开展危机公关应密切注意的方面和应遵循的原则两个角度说明如何应用危机公关，发挥其在危机处理中的作用。通过危机公关这个应对危机的积极措施，促成危机的缓解与转化。