工业品贸易对中国工业行业人口就业的影响——基于34个工业行业面板数据的实证分析

文章利用1996～2006年中国工业行业的面板数据,首先从整体上估计了工业品进、出口对工业行业总体就业的影响,并分部门检验了工业品贸易的就业效应,以考察工业品进、出口对就业影响的行业差异.整体估计结果表明,工业品进口会减少对劳动力的需求,工业品出口能够促进就业.分部门估计结果表明,工业品进、出口对就业的影响存在明显的部门差异.但从长期来看,不能过分依赖出口贸易拉动就业增长,必须增加国内需求;也不能因为工业品进口暂时减少了对劳动力的需求而采取限制进口的政策,而应该在扩大进口规模的同时不断优化进口商品的结构.不同的部门要根据其资源禀赋和比较优势,采取不同的贸易和就业策略.     

Well-Being <Emphasis Type="Italic">in</Emphasis> Nations and Well-Being <Emphasis Type="Italic">of</Emphasis> Nations

Human societies cannot exist without human beings and human beings cannot exist without a society. Still there can be a conflict of interest between the individual and society and there are historical examples of societies prospering at the cost of its members, and examples of people thriving at the cost of society. The degree of conflict or synergy will vary over time. This begs the question: How it is today? To what extend does the well-being of contemporary nations go together with the well-being of their inhabitants? In a system theoretical perspective one can distinguish four kinds of being ‘well’: (1) good external conditions, (2) appropriate internal functioning, (3) positive external effects and (4) system maintenance. At the level of nations these aspects of well-being cannot be meaningfully combined in one measure, hence each aspect is measured separately. At the level of individuals a fairly comprehensive measure is how long and happy people live. Data was available for 92 nations in the early 2000s. Analysis of these data shows much correspondence between the well-being of contemporary nations and average well-being of citizens in these nations. This appears in strong correlations between Happy Life Years and (a) the position of the nation in the world system, (b) the functioning of public institutions in the nation, (c) the productivity of the nation, and (d) the stability of the system. There are plausible explanations for this connection, one is that modern society fits human nature fairly well and another that happy citizens make a better society. So, there is no great conflict between the individual and society, at least not at this moment.     

Thirty-Five Years After Stonewall: An Exploratory Study of Satisfaction with Police Among Gay,Lesbian, and Bisexual Persons at the 34th Annual Atlanta Pride Festival

ABSTRACT

The gay rights movement began in the summer of 1969 when gay men rioted against police for raiding a bar known as the Stonewall Inn. In the succeeding 35 years, very little research has explored the relationship between police organizations and gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (GLBT) communities. The purpose of this study is to describe the attitudes that GLBT persons currently hold toward police. Subjects were sampled from the 34th Annual Atlanta Pride Festival and asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire. Of the 179 GLBT participants, the vast majority reported high satisfaction with community policing practices at this event. Moreover, age, household income, victimization, security presence, and identification with gay-themed media significantly predicted attitudes toward police.     

Same-Sex Married Tax Filers After <Emphasis Type="Italic">Windsor</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Obergefell</Emphasis>

This article provides new estimates of the number and characteristics of same-sex married couples after U.S. Supreme Court rulings in 2013 and 2015 established rights to same-sex marriage. The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service subsequently ruled that same-sex spouses would be treated as married for federal tax purposes. Because almost all married taxpayers file joint tax returns, administrative tax records provide new information on the demographic characteristics of married same-sex couples. This study provides estimates of the population of same-sex tax filers drawn from returns filed in 2013, 2014, and 2015, using methods developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to address measurement error in gender classification. We estimate that approximately 0.48 % of all joint filers in 2015 were same-sex couples, or approximately 250,450 couples.     

Development Challenges of the "New Europe"

European nations are undergoing rapid and fundamental changesin response to social, political and economic eventsthat are occurring both within and outside the region.These changes are far-reaching in scope and,ultimately, are expected to result in a redefinitionof ``Europe' and what it means to be ``European.'Using the author's extensively pre-tested Index ofSocial Progress (ISP), the research reported in thispaper: 1) identifies the major changes in socialdevelopment that have taken place in 36 European nationssince 1970; 2) contrasts Europe's recent socialdevelopment trends with those of other major world regions(including Asia, Africa, Latin and North America, andOceania); 3) using aggregate scores on the WeightedIndex of Social Progress (WISP), identifies Europe's``social leaders' (SLs), ``middle performing countries'(MPCs), identifies Europe's ``social leaders' (SLs),``middle performing countries' (MPCs), and ``sociallyleast developing countries' (SLDCs); 4) identifies themajor development challenges confronting Europe at theoutset of a new decade; and 5) provides baseline dataagainst which future developments in the region maybe assessed.     

The school-to-work transition of 2<Superscript>nd</Superscript> generation immigrants in Denmark

2^nd generation immigrants from less developed countries have less education and a lower employment frequency compared to the native Danish youth. We analyse the school-to-work transition of these groups using panel data for the years 1985–1997. The educational gap between 2^nd generation immigrants and the Danish youth is to some extent explained by age structure, while age does not explain the native-immigrant gap concerning the duration of waiting time until first job and the duration of first employment spell. Instead parental capital and neighbourhood effects seem to play a major role. We find large gender differences among 2^nd generation immigrants in the school-to-work transition.All Correspondence to Nina Smith. Thanks to Thomas Haugaard Jensen, Anne-Sofie Reng Rasmussen and Mette Skak-Nielsen who have done part of the computational work. We also want to thank two anynomous referees and participants in the ESF-conference on Migration and Development in Naples 2000 and the ESPE conference in Athens 2001 for many valuable comments. The project has been financed by the Danish Social Science Research Council (FREJA), the Danish Ministry of Labour and TSER. Furthermore, Helena Skyt Nielsen has been supported financially by the Danish Social Science Research Council (SSF), while this work was undertaken. Responsible editors: David Card and Christopher M. Schmidt.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data</Emphasis>

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.     

The food "surplus": A staple illusion of economics; a cruel illusion for populations

Disjunction between market surpluses of food and worldwide nutritional shortfalls appears to be symptomatic of underlying vulnerabilities, raising questions about the sustainability of agricultural production.David F. Durham, J.D., is a member of the Board of Directors of Population-Environment BALANCE. Jim C. Fandrem, M.A., is a member of Board of Directors of Californians for Population Stabilization.     

Wilderness,a probe into "cultural carrying capacity"

Population policy for human beings must be governed by a commitment never to transcend the cultural carrying capacity. Determining this capacity is a problem in values. As concerns material goods, the cultural carrying capacity is inversely proportional to the quality of life demanded. Inherently scarce goods like wilderness, which can be enjoyed by only a few, pose this ethical problem: can we agree on a basis for choosing an elite, or must we, like the French revolutionary Gracchus Babeuf, insist on equal distribution even if the only possible allotment is then zero? If we reject Babeuf we must recognize that the maximum population cannot be the optimum.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Neighborhoods,Schools, and Academic Achievement: A Formal Mediation Analysis of Contextual Effects on Reading and Mathematics Abilities</Emphasis>

Although evidence indicates that neighborhoods affect educational outcomes, relatively little research has explored the mechanisms thought to mediate these effects. This study investigates whether school poverty mediates the effect of neighborhood context on academic achievement. Specifically, it uses longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, counterfactual methods, and a value-added modeling strategy to estimate the total, natural direct, and natural indirect effects of exposure to an advantaged rather than disadvantaged neighborhood on reading and mathematics abilities during childhood and adolescence. Contrary to expectations, results indicate that school poverty is not a significant mediator of neighborhood effects during either developmental period. Although moving from a disadvantaged neighborhood to an advantaged neighborhood is estimated to substantially reduce subsequent exposure to school poverty and improve academic achievement, school poverty does not play an important mediating role because even the large differences in school composition linked to differences in neighborhood context appear to have no appreciable effect on achievement. An extensive battery of sensitivity analyses indicates that these results are highly robust to unobserved confounding, alternative model specifications, alternative measures of school context, and measurement error, which suggests that neighborhood effects on academic achievement are largely due to mediating factors unrelated to school poverty.     

Social class and workers’ rent, 1983–2001

Sociologists and economists continue to seek explanations for the growth of earnings inequality since the late 1970s. In this article, we draw upon the structural tradition of labor market analysis in sociology in order evaluate the conjecture that selective rent destruction is a source of the recent increase in earnings inequality. In empirical analysis of the Outgoing Rotation Groups of the Current Population Surveys from 1983 to 2001, we demonstrate that (1) the earnings of workers at the bottom of the class distribution have declined relative to the earnings of those at the top and (2) the variance of wage premia associated with employment in alternative industries has declined relatively more for those at the bottom of the class distribution. Adopting the position from both the sociology and labor economics literatures that these industry wage premia are reasonable measures of industry rents, we conclude that the results support the rent destruction conjecture and, by implication, that structural models of labor markets can explain some of the increase in earnings inequality.     

‘Sent Down’ in China: Stratification challenged but not denied

Dramatic shocks to social systems can disrupt normal social processes such as life course sequences and socioeconomic attainment. Such shocks provide a rare opportunity for contrasting normal and extraordinary social processes and thus revealing social structures and processes that may otherwise be invisible. The current article focuses on the ‘sent-down’ generation in China of the 1960s and 1970s, many of whom were forcibly relocated to the countryside following middle or high school graduation to “learn from the peasants.” Although most of these young people eventually returned to urban areas, the experience was traumatic for at least some and disrupted normal life course developments and process of socioeconomic attainment for many. This is especially the case for those who stayed in the countryside for an extended period of time. Data from the Chinese General Social Survey indicate that both the formal and informal power of parents was unable to protect children from being sent down. Nevertheless, as the process matured, stratification forces reemerged in the ability of politically well-placed parents to facilitate the early return of their children. Despite some success in attaining college education and Communist Party membership for the sent-down generation, sent-down men report more unhappiness with life than their non-sent-down counterparts and sent-down men and women report much earlier retirement and withdrawal from the labor force than non-sent-down women. These findings collaborate and extend prior research on the sent-down generation and illustrate the lasting effects of both inequality and of attempts to change inequality.