Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

Off-farm labour decision of Canadian farm operators: Urbanization effects and rural labour market linkages

Understanding the factors affecting off-farm labour decisions of census-farm operators has significant implications for rural development and farm income support policy. We examine the off-farm labour decisions of Canadian farm operators using micro-level data from the 2001 Census of Agriculture combined with community level data from the 2001 Census of Population. While confirming some of the findings of previous research with respect to the effects of human capital and farm characteristics on off-farm work participation, this study shows the differential impact of those variables for operators of smaller and larger holdings. Family, community and regional characteristics appear more relevant in determining the joint decision to work off-farm and operate a smaller holding, compared to the decision to work off-farm and operate a larger farm. Results suggest that, once other factors are accounted for, proximity to urban centres does not have a positive effect on the joint decisions to participate in off-farm work and to operate a holding. This joint decision, in fact, is more related to the dynamics of the local labour market. A major implication of these findings is that while urban centers might represent an engine of growth for overall rural income through employment opportunities for the non-farm workforce, the non-farm income of farm operators is more likely to be affected by policy initiatives that address directly the dynamics of labour markets in the community where the operator lives.     

Human mobility in functional urban regions: understanding the diversity of mobilities

This paper brings together three contrasting strands of conceptualization relating to human mobility in metropolitan regions. First, the well-established literature on functional urban regions which focuses above all on the role of journey to work in defining these, and on patterns of relative population centralization versus decentralization in urban regions. Other than in terms of defining metropolitan zones, this literature is mostly based on analyses of ‘permanent’ population flows. Therefore, the second theme of this paper is a focus more on fluidity, on the importance of various forms of temporary population movements which can either confirm or challenge the trajectories of centralization versus decentralization that are suggested by permanent population shifts. These themes are explored through an empirical analysis of Portsmouth, UK, a mature metropolitan area which has been subject to absolute population centralization in recent years. Finally, we explore how diverse mobilities are interwoven – a process that can be understood in terms of Urry's notions of scapes and flows, and also of enfolded mobilities.     

Rural ageing in the United States: Trends and contexts

This paper examines rural population ageing in the United States with a particular focus on the contrasting contexts in which older rural residents live. We compare the characteristics of the older population by rural versus urban residence, and explore challenges and opportunities associated with the ageing of rural baby boomers. The United States is a vast territory, and rural areas in the US are diverse regionally, in poverty and income, principal forms of employment, proximity to metropolitan areas, population size, density and composition, the history of change in these parameters, and a number of other factors that affect the ageing process. Hence, the diversity across rural areas is an important consideration in what affects the well being of rural elderly individuals, as well as the community-level impacts of rural ageing. Further, the characteristics of the older rural population help shape community and rural development outcomes for diverse rural communities. We use data from various US Census Bureau sources, and cite other studies to provide a demographic overview of ageing in the rural United States, and to analyze how this situation differs in varying socio-demographic and regional contexts. In the concluding section, we focus on policy implications associated with rural ageing.     

PRICE MATCHING AND THE DOMINO EFFECT IN A RETAIL GASOLINE MARKET

Using gasoline station price data collected eight times per day for 103 d for 27 stations in Guelph, Ontario, it is found that, consistent with an informal theory of competitive gasoline pricing, stations set prices to match a small number of other stations. However, these matched stations are not necessarily the closest. While retailers frequently respond to price changes within 2 h, many take considerably longer. Finally, while price decreases do ripple across the market like falling dominos, increases propagate across the city based more on geographic location and source of price control than on proximity to leaders of these increases. ( JEL L13, L40, L81)     

Spatial Analysis of Changes in the Number of Farms During the Farm Crisis*

Abstract This analysis reexamines factors affecting farm change during the Farm Crisis using spatial analysis techniques to identify important spatial factors and correct for spatial autocorrelation. Results indicate the importance of indicators of farm structure, percent of prime farmland, and state‐level processes in predicting changes in the number of farms. The findings also suggest a spatially‐dependent process: counties near each other in space experienced similar types and rates of change in the number of farms. Reasons for the effects of geographic proximity are explored.     

2000年以来沪宁走廊地区城市经济格局与变迁

珠三角地区、长三角地区和京津冀地区等东部沿海地区都市连绵区或城市群已经成为中国经济快速发展的关键区域主体,其中深广城市走廊（深圳-东莞-广州）、沪宁走廊地区（上海-苏州-无锡-常州-镇江-南京）和京津走廊地区（北京-廊坊-天津）更是这些关键区域单元的中枢脊柱。本文以沪宁走廊地区为例,来探讨这三大走廊地区的功能格局和经济发展趋势,其主要的数据来源包括2000年第五次人口普查和2005年1％人口抽样调查数据。     

What Kinds of Places Attract and Sustain Amish Populations?

The Amish are one of the fastest growing ethnoreligious groups in rural America. They are not only growing in historic settlements but are also starting new settlements. This study synthesizes and tests hypotheses about Amish migration destinations and settlement sustainability. Specifically, hypotheses address factors related to population, agriculture, and proximity to other Amish. Findings suggest that the locations Amish settle have several defining characteristics including: low population density, nonmetropolitan county designation, context conducive to small‐scale farming (e.g., low farm acreage price, moderately rolling hills), vicinity to a small commercial center, low to negative population growth, and proximity to an existing Amish settlement. Some characteristics are showing increasing flexibility, such as a small‐scale farming context and proximity to a commercial center. Conversely, settling in areas with a growing population or at a distance from another Amish settlement contributes to a higher likelihood of community dissolution.     

Mediation outcomes and sources of impasse: An empirical investigation

This study examines two of the four determinants of mediation effectiveness identified in Kochan and Jick’s (1978) model of the public sector mediation process: source of impact and situational factors. Questionnaire data were directly obtained from 240 Bangladesh management and union officials. Discriminant analysis identified several sources of impasse for both union and management groups, but no situational factors were found to accurately predict case settlement. Results are discussed in terms of U.S. public sector mediation research.     

The Relationship Among Population Size,Requests for Bareback Sex,and HIV Serostatus in Men Who Have Sex With Men Using the Internet to Meet Sexual Partners

Recent research has indicated the use of the Internet to meet sexual partners among men who have sex with men (MSM) is increasing. This medium also serves as a major source for social and sexual networking among MSM who live in more rural areas. In addition, data suggest the use of the Internet to initiate sexual relationships among this population may increase the risk of transmission of sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between self-reported HIV serostatus and requests for condomless bareback (BB) sex among a sample of Florida MSM (n = 483) using a popular Internet sexual networking site to meet sexual partners. Specifically, these variables were assessed in relation to population size among the site's seven geographic regions within the state. Findings indicated an overall statistically significant relationship among requests for BB sex and self-reported HIV serostatus. However, there was not a significant relationship among these variables and geographic region. Thus, although previous data have emphasized the importance of different HIV prevention strategies among rural versus urban MSM, there may not be major differences in HIV serostatus and requests for unsafe sexual practices among these men who use the Internet to meet sexual partners in comparison to MSM in more populated areas.     

Recent trends in Hispanic immigration to the United States

Recent patterns of Hispanic immigration to the United States are examined using data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. "From 1960 to 1978 Hispanic immigration increased significantly, reflecting the general acceleration in total immigration to the United States. Demographic trends reveal that Hispanic immigrants are increasingly working-age women. Their occupation composition is primarily blue collar, with operatives emerging as the predominant job category during the 1970s." The authors note that these immigrants settle primarily in a small number of urban centers of Hispanic population and culture in the United States, and thus the effects of immigration will be concentrated on the low-skill segment of particular urban labor markets that already contain large numbers of Hispanic workers.     

China' s Divorce Trends in the Transition Toward a Market Economy1

Abstract

This study examines the changes in China' s divorce patterns since 1950, identifies major factors responsible for the upsurge of divorces since the 1978 economic reform, and discusses the likely trend and socioeconomic implications. Results indicate that the number of divorces per 1,000 population increased steadily from 0.327 in 1979 to 0.954 in 1998 and the number of divorces per 1,000 married population increased from 0.820 to 1.710 over the same period. This study suggests that China' s divorce rate is likely to increase under the economic transition but the rate of increase will be determined by many factors, including the forthcoming Marriage and Family Law.     

Impact of Race on the Implementation of Empirically Supported Treatments in Substance Abuse Treatment

The effort to address the gap between research and practice in substance abuse treatment has largely neglected the role of local resources and political trends. This study seeks to clarify the role of the local environment in implementing empirically supported treatments (ESTs). The study consisted of secondary data analysis of substance abuse treatment centers (N = 13,079) and U.S. Census data to determine the likelihood of using EST by substance abuse treatment centers in counties with 50% or more Black residents. Bivariate and multivariate models were employed. After controlling for various factors, results indicate that substance use disorder treatment agencies that accept federal funding are less likely to use ESTs if they are located in counties with predominantly (> 50%) Black residents. Implementation of ESTs could be influenced by community racial distribution (% Black), but environmental constraints and events might shift implementation patterns.     

A note on the status of women as a factor in population growth in less developed countries

The 1978 U.S. Bureau of the Census reported 4.3 billion as the world's population. 3.1 billion were living in the less developed areas where life is characterized by poverty and low levels of material well-being. In the develop countries the per capita income averaged $490, compared to $5,210 in developed areas. Little attention has been paid to the status of women in developing countries, where the impact of development often has a negative effect. As a measure of women's status, rates are given for male/female infant mortality. If the ratio is less than 1.14 the status of women is low. If the is 1.15-1.24 the status is medium. If the ratio is 1.25 and over, women enjoy high status. In countries where women have low status the population growth ra averages 3%. Where the status of women is medium, the growth rate is 2.5%. I countries of high status the population growth rate is 2.2. Further research is needed on correlations between population and economic growth, with particula emphasis on subtle factors behind population/economic development.     

Differential Recovery Migration across the Rural–Urban Gradient: Minimal and Short-Term Population Gains for Rural Disaster-Affected Gulf Coast Counties

Places affected or threatened by extreme environmental disturbances confront a number of significant issues, including whether their populations will stay the same or change through migration. Research on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shows some displaced residents returned to their disaster-affected communities once the built environment was restored, new migrants settled in affected places as part of the rebuilding effort, and the regional migration system grew more urbanized and spatially concentrated during post-disaster years. Research also shows that not all disaster-affected places recovered their populations. Our study examines whether differential recovery is systematically patterned along the rural–urban gradient. Using U.S. Census Bureau estimates and IRS county-to-county migration data, we investigate whether the 2005 hurricane season differentially exacerbated or altered previous migration trends across a rural–urban gradient that incorporates proximity to metropolitan areas and disaster-related housing loss. We find a rural–urban differential in Gulf Coast recovery migration: The disaster boosted migration among non-metropolitan counties, yet these increases were smaller and short-lived compared to the patterns found for metropolitan counties, most especially high loss metropolitan counties. Our findings encourage theories of environmental migration to incorporate spatial differentiation and scenarios of environmental changes to account for differential impacts on settlement patterns across the rural–urban continuum.     

Sources of Influence in the Family Therapy Field: Publication Trends in Three Major Journals1

The institutional sources of all articles published in the three major marriage and family therapy journals through 1978 are identified. The journals reviewed include: Family Process, Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, and the American Journal of Family Therapy. While no single center emerges as dominating the published family therapy literature, a small number of institutions clearly have exerted a profound impact on the literature of the field. Moreover, the absolute number of centers influencing the field is rapidly increasing, and these centers are becoming particularly influential in the newer journals in the field.     

ALL IN THE FAMILY: Red States,Blue States,and Postmodern Family Patterns, 2000 and 2004

In this article, we propose a new way of understanding presidential election outcomes in red and blue states in 2000 and 2004, one that takes into account state‐level variation in postmodern family patterns. Using data from the Statistical Abstract, Census, the American Community Survey, and National Vital Statistics Reports, we construct two measures of state patterns of postmodern family formation (a father‐absent family scale, and a small/delayed family scale). We find that these patterns of postmodern family formation are powerful predictors of states' percentage of votes cast for the Democratic candidate in 2000 and 2004, even after controlling for differences in the composition of states' populations and for differences in states' economic characteristics (rates of economic growth, unemployment, and poverty). We suggest ways that this approach could contribute to the literature on how individual‐level factors, such as demographic characteristics and moral values, shape voting behavior and electoral outcomes.     

Impacts of Rapid Urban Growth on Farmland Conversion: Application of New Regional Land Use Policy Models and Geographical Information Systems1

Abstract Geographical Information Systems (GIS) computer mapping programs and new land use policy models are shown to be useful in understanding the dynamics of rural land conversion to urban uses. The California Central Valley Alternative Futures Model was constructed to evaluate patterns of growth that are forecasted to triple the population of the California Central Valley by 2040. The GIS sub-divided the Valley into over 750,000 land units, and a logit analysis evaluated factors leading to actual patterns of recent growth. Undeveloped land units were assigned a probability of future development, and expected population increases were allocated to those land units with the highest probability of future growth under two growth scenarios: low density and compact growth. The model shows that low density growth would convert over 1,035,000 acres of farmland to urban uses, including over 600,000 acres of prime or statewide important quality land. Compact growth would convert only 474,000 acres total, of which only 266,000 would be on prime soils. This paper shows how new land use models and GIS programs enable rural sociologists to better understand how rural communities and their spatial environment interact—in particular, how these tools enable researchers to explore the forces and consequences of rural and exurban growth.     

Why do participants in voluntary organizations leave? Exploring the relationship between value congruence and length of stay

Recognizing the importance of values and the specific characteristics of participants and situations in voluntary organizations, we examine how value congruence—the fit or compatibility of values between participants and the organization, or among participants—interacts with personal and situational factors to predict participants' length of stay in their organizations. Introducing the case of a voluntary organization that offers shared housing, we measure value congruence through textual similarity in the self‐introduction documents of 49 participants and the organization's mission statement. This approach differs from the self‐reported measures based on participants' perceptions or recalled interactions used in previous studies. In line with expectation‐disconfirmation theory, participants with the strongest beliefs in organizational values had shorter lengths of stay. The amount of intraorganizational communication also moderated the relationship between value congruence and length of stay. This study provides theoretical and methodological implications for nonprofit management by considering personal and situational factors and evaluating value congruence by textual similarity.     

A history of population movement between New Zealand and Australia

"Migration between New Zealand and Australia has assumed considerable significance for both countries during the past 25 years. Commencing in the late 1960s, three major waves of net immigration from New Zealand have seen Australia's New Zealand-born population increase from 52,000 at the 1966 Census to 212,000 at the 1986 Census.... This paper aims to set these contemporary trends in historical context. So strong has been the tide flowing towards Australia that it is easy to imagine, erroneously, that it always flowed that way." Movements since the early 1800s are examined. Aspects considered include major periods of net migration, gender balance, short-term and permanent movement, and size and composition of immigrant groups. The impact of changes in migration policies over time is analyzed. The author's name is incorrectly listed as George A. Carmichael on this article. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)