独生子女家庭育龄妇女生育意愿及其影响因素——基于湖北省鄂州、黄石、仙桃市的调查

文章基于2 421位独生子女家庭育龄妇女的调查数据,对18～45岁育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿进行了分析。结论表明,生活压力大及抚养成本高是制约育龄妇女生育二孩的重要因素;采用logit模型对独生子女家庭育龄妇女生育意愿影响因素进行的实证研究表明,个人、家庭、观念和政策是影响独生子女家庭育龄妇女生育意愿的主要因素。     

中国独生子女家庭与二孩家庭生育模式百年模拟与选择

不少人对中国的独生子女政策可能造成家庭负担过重忧心忡忡。通过独生子女家庭和“二孩加间隔”家庭未来百年发展变化模拟评价后认为：如果生育模式选择得当,独生子女家庭“四、二、二” 负担结构有可能基本避免,未来独生子女家庭的负担,也不会比历史上经历过的较重的负担更重。生育模式选择不当,生二个孩子,并不能保证比生一个孩子负担轻。从百年人口对资源环境和杜会经济发展的压力看,“二孩加间隔” 的政策无论如何组合和选择,所形成的人口压力都要显著大于独生子女政策,而独生子女家庭的生育模式如果选择得当,它的家庭负担不见得比生育模式选择不当的二孩家庭重多少。因此,政府应坚持稳定现行生育政策,坚持提倡一对夫妇只生一个孩子;同时应按最优生育模式,对生育年龄和间隔进行适当的调整。     

社会因素对生育意愿的影响——以吉林省农村地区为例

生育意愿是对生育时间、生育数量和生育性别等内容做出的选择。这种选择往往会受家庭条件、居住环境、文化水平、社会因素等多方面的影响。本文结合东北地区农村群众的生育观念,仅从农业大省的角度分析社会因素对农村家庭生育性别意愿的影响。影响吉林省农村生育性别意愿的社会因素传统农业生产模式对男性的依赖。吉林省是典型的农业大省,改革开放30年来家庭联产承包的分散经营生产模式没有     

我国独生子女规模估计及其生育政策调整对未来人口控制的影响

本文对目前人们关心的有关独生子女的生育政策是否应该调整、调整生育政策会对我国人口发展产生那些影响等问题进行探讨.为了实现这一目的,本文首先给出我国城镇人口中独生子女的规模和年龄分布估计的方法和模型,然后,利用得到的估计值对不同的独生子女生育政策进行队列模拟,通过比较得出结论.     

第一代独生子女婚后居住模式——基于江苏省的经验研究

二十世纪七、八十年代出生的第一代独生子女正处在婚育阶段,与此同时,他们的父母也在逐渐步人老年。文章利用2007年江苏生育调查数据,从代际关系角度考察了第一代独生子女的婚后居住模式及影响因素,结果表明：子代需要亲代帮助照料年幼孙代的需求、亲代需要子代提供照料的需求显著提高了独生子女婚后与父母同住的可能性,代际交换关系显著影响了居住模式;与非独生子女家庭相比,独生子女家庭更可能与夫妻一方或双方父母同住;城市独生子女比农村独生子女更可能婚后与父母同住：独生子女的性别属性对居住模式有显著影响,独生子与自己父母同住的比例明显大于独生女同她们的父母同住的比例。     

江苏省生育政策一元化对人口出生的影响

为估算独生子女夫妇生育2孩的影响,文章以江苏省为例,采用年龄孩次递进模型和生育率拆分的方法,测算了全省非农人口也和农村一样("生育政策一元化"),实行"夫妻一方为独生子女的家庭,可以生育第2个孩子"的政策(简称"单独",非农业人口现行的"夫妻双方均为独生子女可以生育第2个孩子"的政策简称"双独")对人口出生规模的影响.测算结果表明:全省城乡都实行"单独"生育政策后,平均每年人口出生增加最大不超过7.3万人,对江苏省的人口规模不会有明显的影响;在政策调整初期,可能出现出生堆积现象,需要各地政府进行必要的疏导;这种政策调整早一点,出生堆积就会小一点.     

当代农村女性生育行为和生育意愿的实证研究

通过对农村女性生育行为和生育意愿的调查 ,发现被调查女性的生育行为有以下特点 ,即生育率有了很大下降 ,但同时也存在进入孕龄的时间早、生育期比较集中、流产率高以及一定比例的性别选择等现象。生育意愿和生育行为相比 ,显得更为“现代化”。文章还对生育的影响因素进行了尝试性分析。最后提出了自己的政策建议。     

生育需求、婚姻匹配与夫妻初婚年龄差距——来自中国城乡家庭的研究

本文建立两时期婚姻搜寻模型,用以解释在性别间存在可生育年龄生理差异的基础上生育意愿对男性与女性婚姻搜寻行为以及婚姻匹配模式产生的影响。在此基础上,采用CHNS(1993)抽样调查的微观家庭数据,通过构建两个计量模型从微观和宏观两个层面来分析生育率对婚姻匹配模式的影响。首先运用CHNS微观家庭数据对家庭层面中孩子数量与夫妻年龄差距之间的联系进行实证研究,对农村家庭的回归结果显示孩子数量与夫妻的年龄差距具有显著的关系,具体而言,家庭中每多1个孩子,夫妻间的年龄差距也随之扩大0.27年。其次从宏观的角度运用Difference in Difference(DID)的方法来分析生育政策对婚姻匹配模式产生的冲击效应,实证分析计划生育政策实施后生育率的变化对我国城乡地区婚姻匹配产生的影响。实证结果显示计划生育政策实施以后生育率出现了下降,家庭的生育需求受到抑制,造成了政策实施后夫妻初婚年龄差距的下降。在生育需求受到计划生育政策影响更大的农村地区中夫妻初婚年龄差距随着生育率的快速下降出现了更为显著的缩小。研究结果表明生育需求是影响婚姻匹配模式的一个重要因素,计划生育政策实施后生育率的变化对我国城乡地区夫妻初婚年龄差距产生了显著的影响。     

北京市独生子女生育意愿调查

随着计划生育政策的全面贯彻,加上社会经济发展和社会竞争压力的增大,当代独生子女的生育意愿发生了哪些变化,已经成为人口学者关注的问题。文章通过对北京市18个区县1206个独生子女的抽样调查结果进行分析,得出当代独生子女的生育观念已经发生了改变,这将对其生育意愿产生较大影响。     

广东妇女生育水平的变化及影响因素分析

根据第五次人口曾查资料,本文详细描述了广东妇女生育水平的现状。并从实际出发,对影响广东省生育水平和生育机制的农村生育模式,生育孩次构成,文化水平和职业构成等四个重要因素进行分析。最后,就稳定广东省低生育水平,提高人口科学管理等问题提出三点建议。     

Children as by-products, investment goods and consumer goods: A Review of some micro-economic models of fertility

Summary This paper is a review of a number of applications of traditional micro-economics to the analysis of fertility. In this paper four general models of family size are developed and utilized for classifying previous work on the micro-economic analysis of fertility. The general models describe four family decision-making situations. The outcome of these decisions determines fertility either directly or indirectly. In the first model, parents are forced to choose between sexual activity and a higher standard of living. Children are the by-products of the amount of sexual activity chosen. In the second model, children are an investment good and family size is determined by the choice between current and future consumption. The third and fourth models depict situations in which children are considered to be desirable in themselves, that is, they are consumption goods.     

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: the case of Vietnam

This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility, perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect. Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997     

农村妇女生育意愿影响因素分析

低生育水平不代表我国农村社会生育意愿已经完成了从传统型向现代型的转变,因为生育意愿的变化受到社会和家庭多种因素的影响。借助莱宾斯坦孩子"成本-效用"理论,通过农村妇女边际孩子的选择对农村妇女生育意愿的影响因素进行分析。结果发现,性别偏好、孩子的经济成本以及抵御家庭风险、扩大家庭规模的效用在影响妇女生育意愿中起着较为明显的作用。了解农村妇女生育意愿影响因素,对建设先进生育文化有重要意义。     

The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19?years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.     

Evaluating the demographic impact of societal events through intervention analysis: The brown vs. Board of Education decision

Using intervention analysis--a time-series technique gaining increasing use for analyzing the impacts of policy decisions/historic events--this paper reexamines the hypothesis offered by Rindfuss et al., that one consequence of the Brown vs. Board of Education decision in 1954 was a temporary decline in childbearing by white southerners. With data from the 11 former Confederate states, alternative Box-Jenkins/intervention models were estimated to identify/quantify such a decline, but no statistical evidence of a temporary shift in southern white fertility could be found.     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

中国生育率研究方法:30年回眸

改革开放30年是我国人口学及人口研究迅速成长的30年。生育率研究方法从一个侧面反映出改革开放以来我国人口学研究方法的发展。中国的生育率研究方法既有从西方引进的各种生育率指标和模型,也有中国学者为了适应自己的需要而改进和创建的方法和模型。笔者从生育率度量指标和生育率模型两个方面总结我国生育率研究方法的应用及变化。对在中国生育率研究中所使用的主要方法进行回顾并对这些方法对我国生育率研究的贡献进行总结。     

我国城乡居民生育意愿调查研究综述:2000-2008

通过对2000~2008年国内有关生育意愿的调查资料和研究文献分析,对我国城乡居民的生育意愿现状、差异及变化特征进行概括。城乡居民意愿生育子女数的差异逐渐缩小,但意愿生育性别的差异仍然显著;城市青年的生育意愿渐趋一致,独生子女与非独生子女的生育意愿差异不显著;外出流动对生育意愿与生育行为的影响较大,无论是生育意愿,还是生育行为,外出流动人口都更接近于目的地城市人口;生育年龄呈继续后移趋势;生育成本增高已成为生育意愿下降的主要原因。     

清中叶以降浙南乡村家族人口与家族经济——兼论非马尔萨斯式的中国生育模式

文章以浙江松阳石仓阙氏所藏家族宗谱、文书为核心,通过梳理其中隐藏的人口与经济信息,考察其家族人口行为和其人口行为背后的经济驱动力。为所谓马尔萨斯式的中国生育模式提供一个反例。文章的研究表明,阙氏家族可以根据经济情况的好坏调节其生育行为,从而使生活维持在一定的水准之上。由此可见,在一个辽阔的国家内部,也许的确存在着所谓无节制的生育,但也同样存在着如同石仓阙氏一般极具现代性的人口生育模式,马尔萨斯式的中国人口模式并不能一概而论。